10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 4 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 2 Recap:

Draftkings:

Desmond Ridder – 7.34 pts | QB21 | 1.4x value

Geno Smith – 16.44 pts. | QB14 | 2.8x value

James Cook- 13.2 pts | RB15 | 2.1x value

KJ Osborn – 10.60 pts | WR31 | 2.65x value

John Bates – 3.2 pts | TE24 | 1.14x value

Fanduel:

(points and player rankings are DK only, because FD can’t make it easily searchable)

Deshaun Watson- 21.16 pts| QB9 | 2.8x value

Joshua Kelley- 2.2 pts | RB45 | 0.4x value

Sky Moore – 6.2 pts | WR100 | 1.1x value (Missed time with an injury)

DeAndre Hopkins – 6.3 pts | WR101 | 1.0x value

Adam Trautman – 0 pts | TEdeadlast | 0.0x value

YIKES. No bueno. Not good. Rough week across both sites. Maybe tried to get too cute? Was a weird weekend overall with lots of chalk smashing and guys in bad spots showing up for big numbers (like Andy Dalton what?!). The one call I’m still grieved about though is James Cook. Buffalo on the 3 yard line. Cook needs 3 yards for the 100 yard bonus. If he gets the ball there and punches it in he’s the RB5 for the week and smashes value. Instead he gets vultured by Lats Murray.

DFS is about sticking to your process though. The reality is you won’t get everything right every week. Goal is to have 3-4 weeks a year like week 2 on Draftkings where everything hits. If you can do that you can be profitable. Back to the grind this week with some more guys in great spots that are going overlooked.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Russell Wilson QB Denver Broncos

Ownership: DK 5.72%

Salary: DK $5800

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. In a week with lots of sort of low total games, and chalk clearly coming on games like the Miami/Buffalo fireworks fest, there’s plenty of sneaky GPP options at QB that you can use and still get pieces to that game without having a ton of total ownership.

Here’s the deal, the Broncos got boat raced last weekend by the Dolphins, but there was signs of life from the offense, and CLEARLY they are going to have to sling it a bit if the defense is going to continue to play like they have. 38, 32, 24 attempts for Wilson in the last three games, and I would expect to see that again here.

The Bears are…not good. And that’s putting it nicely. Russ can absolutely cook and get some of that old swag back. I hate to see the Broncos do well because Sean Payton is one of the biggest losers in the league, but this is a nice spot for their offense.

One other upside piece here is that at times, Russ has shown some rushing upside and that threat can open up some stuff or him in the secondary.

Jerry Jeudy/Courtland Sutton are the primary stack pieces here, but I don’t hate a cheap Marvin Mims or even going back to the well with Adam Trautman who got exactly zero targets last week.

Love the game environment here and think that we can see Russ have a ceiling game.

Justin Fields QB Chicago Bears

Ownership: DK 4.43%

Salary: DK $6600

I said that I loved the game environment here, so it shouldn’t come as a surprise that I want to get pieces of the other side too. Look, I understand that Fields has been pretty atrocious, but he didn’t just get bad over the offseason.

Part of his struggles have been due to scheme. I’m not sure why Eberflus insists on making him a pocket passer. Let Fields be Fields. If they do that this week against a defense that was just torched for 72 points, I think he has a massive ceiling here.

Needs at least 1 TD, and a pass TD to get there but I don’t think you need to pair him with anyone. Naked Fields is find.

The monster game is coming at some point, and this is as good of a spot as any and I want to be on him before everyone else is so I can get rewarded by that monster game.

James Cook RB Buffalo Bills 

Ownership: DK 5.63%

Salary: DK $6300

Incredibly frustrating week for Cook last week, well maybe not for him personally but for those of us like me who wagered real American dollars on him.

Had 97 yards rushing. Ball is on the 3. He can get the 100 yard bonus and a TD if they let him rush it in. Do they? No…lets let the corpse of Lats Murray run another one in instead of the future franchise RB.

FRUSTRATING.

Still, all the signs are there of a big game incoming. If he starts to get some of those looks, and becomes more than just the between the 20 guys, which he should because why invest in Lats Murray, then I think he has slate breaking potential, especially in an environment like this where there should be a TON of scoring.

Just way too low owned for his role in this offense, regardless of if he’s getting vultured all the time.

Jaylen Warren RB Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: 2.3%

Salary: DK $5000

LOVE me some Jaylen Warren on DK this week. Super cheap, Super low owned, milly winning potential.

Steelers take on the lowly Texans who are terrible, and it’s ABUNDANTLY clear (at least to everyone not named Mike Tomlin) that he’s the best RB in this backfield. At some point they are just going to give him all the run and sit Najee Harris on the bench and that could potentially be this week.

Elite pass catcher who is getting 4-5 targets a game. Continues to see an increase in carries as well.

Really needs a TD to hit value but in this game environment I like his chances.

[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QUWcP4aPvNc[/embedyt]

Michael Pittman Jr. WR Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: DK 5.58%

Salary: DK $6500

Double digit targets through all three games this year. Anthony Richardson coming back should benefit him as they had a really nice connection in the first week and a half.

Matchup with the Rams is a sneaky shootout, particularly because the Rams defense is AWFUL. Pittman only has one TD so far this season, in Week 1, when Richardson was the QB.

No real interest on FD for Pittman but given the double digit targets, he has massive PPR upside on DK.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Brock Purdy QB San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: FD 4.94%

Salary: FD $7100

Purdy plays the Cardinals…that should be enough for you to play him!

Put up a really solid score last week and has an opportunity to do it again here against this defense that isn’t very good in any aspect of their game.

Has some issues with injuries for his receivers but I’m guessing they all play.

CMC can absolutely go bonkers here but he does so much catching passes that I think he could pull Purdy with him. Regardless the point of playing Purdy is to get off CMC and focus on the passing game.

Aiyuk and Kittle are my primary stacking pieces here and I have no interest in any of the Cardinals.

Derrick Henry RB Tennessee Titans

Ownership: FD: 7.31%

Salary: FD $8000

Mostly just banking on long term form here with Henry. He’s a stud. He’s not priced like one because his performance has been poor, and his ownership is way too low.

I get that he’s been out touched Tyjae Spears but this is Derrick Freaking Henry. He’s going to go bonkers at some point. Going up against Cincy who has been decent against the run, but again…this is Derrick Freaking Henry.

Everyone jumping off I think this is the perfect time to jump on Henry, especially on FD where he could have a David Montgomery type game and score 2-3 TD’s. Think he’s the perfect milly maker play here.

Adam Thielen WR Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 5.89%

Salary: FD $6800

REVENGE GAME!!! Thielen gets to take on his former team, and is coming off a fantastic week where he had a ridiculous 14 targets.

It appears that the Panthers are going back to Bryce Young this week which is definitely a downgrade for Thielen as opposed to Andy Dalton who hit him with those 14 targets, but I still think the game plan will be to hit Thielen early and often for the Young (no pun intended) on those intermediate routes to establish a rhythm.

I’ve said it all year though that he’s the best red zone option for the Panthers and we saw that last week. TD equity is great even with Young at the helm and I love the price tag here.

DeVonta Smith WR Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: FD 2.7%

Salary: FD: $7500

This is my weekly “What are we doing here?” spot. AJ Brown is currently projecting at around 13% ownership and Smith is under 3%. That’s WILD.

Brown is not a TD catcher in this offense. He’s a PPR machine. Smith is the deep threat who still gets enough target share to smash and is much more likely, at least in my opinion, to score a TD in this game, which is huge on FD.

This is one of the biggest leverage spots on the slate and I’ll be ALL over it this week.

Jake Ferguson TE Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: FD 6.07%

Salary: FD $4300

TE’s are just absolutely wheeling right now. Kelce and Tswizzle is the hot news, but let’s not forget about Jake Ferguson and one of the Cavinder twins. Guy has to be feeling himself right now.

Had as many targets as any of the WR’s in this offense last week with 7.

Super cheap with TD upside even against the Pats and their stout defense.

***STREAMER SPECIAL DEFENSE***

Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 40) BOTH DEFENSES

Ownership: BROWNS: DK 5.5%/FD 6.84% RAVENS: DK 5.41%/FD 6.42%

Salary: DK $2800/FD $4300 RAVENS: DK $3200/FD $4100

Browns have been surprisingly good this year. They are at home against Lamar and the Ravens who can put the ball on the ground and take sacks. 8 sacks this year on Lamar and 3 turnovers for him alone.

On the other side of the ball the Ravens get a Browns team that is turning the ball over at the third highest rate in the league. Watson looked pretty terrible last week and with Chubb out for the year, they are likely going to have to rely on his arm which can lead to more turnovers.

LOVE both defenses in this game and will likely have one or the other in almost all of my lineups.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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