10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Week 2 Main Slate

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Week 1 Recap:

Draftkings:

Kirk Cousins – 22.46 QB4

Derek Carr – 18.6 QB 9

Raheem Mostert – 13.0 RB15

Marvin Mims Jr – 2.90 WR10000000

George Pickens – 8.60 WR42

Fanduel:

(points and player rankings are DK only, because FD can’t make it easily searchable)

Sam Howell – 17.18 QB12

Javonte Williams – 9.7 RB25

Mike Evans – 18.6 WR12 (switched off Chris Godwin who was WR33 and 7% higher owned)

Adam Thielen – 3.2 WR1000000

Gerald Everett – 4.3 TE20000000

NAILED the QB’s this week, the rest was sort of meh. Always a crap shoot when you are going for lower owned plays especially in a week where we don’t much. Heading into week 2 we have some more info, we also have everyone MASSIVELY overreacting for one week sample sizes which lets us get on players who are studs who maybe underperformed a bit in week 1.

Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Jared Goff QB Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 7.9%

Salary: DK $6200

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

That being said, we know from backtesting that low owned QB’s often show up in the milly maker winning lineups, especially ones that are in high total games that are somehow going overlooked. Jared Goff fits the bill for that this week, currently projecting at around 7% (though I wouldn’t be surprised to see him climb), in a 47 point game total, with a 26 point team total. That’s not the world’s highest total but on this slate it’s the second highest.

Currently props have him at around 266 passing yards and is a HEAVY favorite to throw 2 touchdown passes. I think everyone and their mother will be on Amon Ra St. Brown as he’s projecting close to 20% owned so I don’t mind going to Sam Laporta (who you will hear about later) and even Josh Reynolds who is mega cheap and under owned with potentially the batter DB matchup. Could even go with Jahmyr Gibbs who they ‘promise’ is going to be more involved.

Even if Goff ends up a little higher than 10% owned, I’ll be overweight here with him in around 25% of my lineups this week. Home, 5 point favorite, high total, yes please, don’t overthink this one.

 

Baker Mayfield QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: DK 3.8%

Salary: DK $5100

All the Baker this week against the TERRIBLE Bears defense. Seriously. They looked so bad last week, and Baker looked competent against the Vikings who aren’t THAT bad (they aren’t good by any means).

He has a ton of weapons at his disposal in this offense and the line looked pretty good so should be able to hold up against the pass rush here.

Game total is low, at 41 but the Bucs are only a 2.5 point favorite at home. Fields is getting some love but at this price point I think Baker easily outscores him in pts/$. Current props are at around 220 yards passing and a TD, but I like the over on BOTH of those props.

Pair him with Mike Evans who had 11 targets last week or Chris Godwin who has the highest receiving yard prop in this entire game.

Mayfield is viable on both sites, and his price lets you get some of the studs like CMC or even a semi healthy Travis Kelce in your lineup.

Zack Moss RB Indianapolis Colts

Ownership: DK 1.16%

Salary: DK $4700

Moss is trending towards playing this week after missing week 1 with a forearm injury and looks like he will potentially be the starter against a Texans team that is not good and let Justice Hill score twice last week.

Deon Jackson was very mediocre last week and fumbled twice. Evan Hull is out. The Colts signed Jake Funk but this is Moss’s backfield at this point. We’re getting a starter in a super plus match up at a crazy low price/ownership combo. Love him this week and think he’s even cash viable. Obviously the floor is a little scary but I think he smashes here.

Nico Collins WR Houston Texans

Ownership: 3.13%

Salary: DK $4800

Really high on Collins after the performance last week against the Ravens. He had a crazy 11 targets, including 158 air yards. Stroud looked his way early and often, especially downfield.

He goes against a Colts secondary that just gave up 101 yards to Calvin Ridley, they are leaky and he has the potential for a huge game at a low price.

Noah Brown has headed to the IR so it’s really just Robert Woods and Collins as the main receiving threats (with Dalton Schultz at TE who I think could potentially be sneaky here). Tank Dell should get more looks now with Brown out and he’s explosive, but the stud in this offense in my opinion is Collins and he gives you really intriguing milly maker winning upside.

Sam Laporta TE Detroit Lions

Ownership: DK 4.2%

Salary: DK $3900

Loved the usage that Laporta got last week. Guy I was really high on heading into the season (made him a priority in my main Season long draft), and to him as the main TE here is exciting. Super cheap given the potential workload.

Was 4th in targets last week but I think that we see that number go up as he gets more comfortable with Goff, especially this week against a TE funnel defense. Played 85% of the snaps last week. No chance we see Brock Wright threaten him for touches.

Only concern is the red zone usage. I’d like to see that a bit higher and I’d like to see him block a little less, but regardless he’s on the field a ton and is going to get usage. If you aren’t paying up at TE (or even if you are, double TE baby!) I love him in this game as a one off or as part of stacks with Goff. Viable on both sites too.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Jordan Love QB Green Bay Packers

Ownership: FD 1.74%

Salary: FD $7200

I thought Love looked pretty decent in the preseason, but the Bears made him look like the second coming of Aaron Rodgers, or the third coming of Brett Favre.

Can he keep that up this week against the vaunted defense of the Atlanta Falcons?

Just kidding the Falcons are terrible.

Love looks to be in another good spot here and with Aaron Jones trending towards being out, I expect the Packers and Matt Lafleur to really lean on Love and the passing game.

I wish Christian Watson was going to be back but as of this writing he’s trending towards being out again this week with a hamstring injury. Romeo Doubs is the number one and is my favorite pairing with Love for stacks. Luke Musgrave is fine, but will be overowned.

I don’t really want a double stack here so likely just sticking with Love/Doubs, and to be honest a runback isn’t that sexy either. That being said Bijan Robinson is going to be way underowned given the skill set and with the price down a bit I’m a bit intrigued. He has multiple TD upside any time he is in the lineup.

Khalil Herbert RB Chicago Bears

Ownership: FD: 1.87%

Salary: FD $5800

Huh? What is this price/ownership combination? Herbert is the guy now in Chicago and is priced under guys who are backups on FD. I get that Roschon Johnson  had 55 and a TD but he was getting action well after the game was out of hand.

In a tight game like this is projected be, with a 2.5 point spread, I really like Herbert to get 15ish touches with lots of TD equity. Similar to the Eagles, Fields hampers that a bit near the goal line but the Bucs will likely sell out to stop that from happening.

Tampa isn’t studly against the run by any means and we’ve seen what Herbert can do when he gets a big workload and the Bears obviously are planning to give him one. Also, worth noting that he’s getting some steam on the TD props, down to +240 from +290 at open.

DK Metcalf WR Seattle Seahawks

Ownership: FD 5.37%

Salary: FD $7700

DK is a beast. This is a great game environment for scoring. He’s going to go off. I don’t know why he’s not 20% owned. I’m pretty much all in on DK this week. The Lions can’t stop anyone. I’m not writing anymore. Play DK, collect your money, move on to week 3.

Irv Smith Jr. TE Cincinatti Bengals

Ownership: FD 5.5%

Salary: FD: $4800

Burrow’s opening weekend blunders be damned, I’m on this offense again in a divisional matchup against the Ravens and while Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins are great plays, I love the TE spot against the Ravens. Ravens will have Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Williams out, with Williams being out a huge boon for Irv Smith in the middle of the field.

Smith has shown upside as a pass catcher throughout his career when he’s healthy and as a punt here at the TE position on FD I’m all over him. Think he has TD upside and should go over his prop of 26.5 receiving yards. Also think the ownership ends up lower than what we see here as some of the injury situations will mean that you can pay up at TE and players will flock to Kelce and Andrews in big GPP’s.

Zay Jones WR Jacksonville Jaguars

Ownership: FD 3.74%

Salary: FD $6300

Easy way to get different on one of the highest owned games this week is to get some Zay Jones into your lineup.

Everyone is playing Trevor Lawrence and Patrick Mahomes stacks but it appears that they are getting exposure to Calvin Ridley and Travis Etienne instead of Jones who had 7 targets last week and brought in an 18 year touchdown.

Jones had a career best year last season and while many thought he might get left behind with the addition of Calvin Ridley, he’s clearly shown that he’s still going to be a big part of this offense. He’s currently second in receiving yard props for the Jags and led them in snap % as well.

***STREAMER SPECIAL DEFENSE***

New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys (-5, 45.5)

Ownership: DK 5% FD 5%

Salary: DK $2700/FD $3700

Look, I get that the Cowboys absolutely destroyed the Giants, and that Zach Wilson is probably going to turn the ball over, but I’m not sure I care, because this defense is absolutely legit. 4 picks against Josh Allen last week and we know that Dak is capable of doing the same thing. While everyone flocks to the other side of the ball and the Cowboys defense (even though they are wildly expensive), I’m all over the Jets here.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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