10 under 10

10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome back to another season of 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it)

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

NEW this year, I will have 5 players from Draftkings and 5 players from Fanduel, some might be elite low owned plays on both sites and if they are you can be sure that I’ll note that. I’ll also have a streamer special defense for you to put in to your lineups!

NOTE: Ownership are based on time of writing, I will do my best to update through the week, but injuries could significantly change ownership projections so make sure you are paying attention!

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on DRAFTKINGS under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Kirk Cousins QB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 3.43%

Salary: DK $6300

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Justin Fields or Jalen Hurts is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

You come here for the low owned guys who could pop off, and this week my friends, my favorite GPP QB who can go bonkers with a massive game this week, my boy, dad of the year, Kirk Cousins. 

Cousins has the best WR in the game and brings in an elite rookie WR in Jordan Addison. Dalvin Cook is out the door, and while I think Alexander Mattison is going to be a solid option this year, this isn’t the spot to play him (though everyone is for some reason). Oh, and he’s got TJ Hockenson who just PAID.

This offense is going to be really good this year, and the defense is going to suck so Cousins and his receivers are likely going to have to air it out early and often to stay in games.

We get a home QB, 6 point favorites, and a 45.5 game total which is weirdly one of the highest on the slate. LOVE all those things.

Pair Cousins up with JJettas, Addison, Hockenson, or even KJ Osborn who is massively cheap this week. If you want a run back, the Vikings will stop absolutely no one running the ball and Rachaad White is the guy now. I don’t think Bowles will let Mayfield sling it, so we should see White get 15+ touches, but more on him later.

Stack up the Purple People Eaters and watch your lineups crest the leaderboards early (and hopefully stay there).

Derek Carr QB New Orleans Saints

Ownership: DK 5.1%

Salary: DK $5300

Cover boy here. Mostly I’m just putting Carr in this article to make Geek mad because he thinks he’s trash. I’m a longtime Carr believer and this offense should really suit him. He has tons of weapons, even with Kamara out, and we get leverage on the field by playing him as Jamaal Williams is going to be massive chalk, so we have the potential double dip here as if Carr plays well, then Williams likely duds as the highest owned player on the slate.

Carr with any of his receivers are viable. I think Michael Thomas is the sneakiest. Seems to be healthy. Carr doesn’t necessarily have the arm to make Olave smash, so Thomas coming out the middle of the field where he eats should get peppered with passes.

You know who I won’t play though? Taysom Hill. Stop it with him.

Raheem Mostert RB Miami Dolphins

Ownership: DK 4.5%

Salary: DK $5400

Uh, what are we doing here? I thought maybe just our ownership projections were off, but I’m seeing Mostert across the industry sub 5% which is just absolutely bonkers to me.

He’s the number one back here in Miami now that Jeff Wilson has been placed on the IR, and the competition is Devon Achane who is shorter than Geek, and Salvon Ahmed who is a career backup. I expect Mostert to be the bell cow this week at the very least.

51 point game total so there should absolutely be scoring here and it’s just a small 3 point spread with the Dolphins being dogs on the road. Mostert’s got the second best odds to score in this game and I think he has a fairly reasonable path to 4x points at this price point.

Love him as part of run it back stacks with Justin Herbert

Marvin Mims Jr. WR Denver Broncos

Ownership: 3.13%

Salary: DK $3000

Love me a good Rookie WR at dead min price. Think that regardless of Jerry Jeudy’s status Mims is going to be involved here just due to all the health issues with the Broncos WR’s. He’s poppped all preseason and while everyone thinks that the Broncos will be run heavy, I do think we see some classic Sean Payton trying to air it out with Wilson in an attempt to revive his career (and this offense).

Let’s you play a bunch of high priced, high owned studs, and still be fairly unique in your lineups for the Milly Maker.

George Pickens WR Pittsburgh Steelers

Ownership: DK 1.52%

Salary: DK $5000

Pickens is sitting on a monster year if Pickett can take a step and by all accounts it appears that he is going to. Now that being said, the 49ers are an elite defense and their stud Nick Bosa signed a massive deal.

The Steelers are 2 point dogs but all the money is on the Steelers, so the Sharp bettors are putting their money on the Steelers, which tells me that people who are putting big money on games like the Steelers are home here.

As far as Pickens goes, he’s way too cheap and way too low owned. I don’t think the Steelers will be able to run the ball here, and they will have to throw, and Pickens projects at least for me, as the best receiving option in this offense.

It’s week 1 and we literally know nothing, so when everyone is swerving a game, then that’s where we want to jump in at least in big GPP’s like the milly. Wouldn’t hate Diontae Johnson here either, but think Pickens upside is a bit better.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays on Fanduel under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

Sam Howell QB Washington Commanders

Ownership: FD 2.5%

Salary: FD $7100

Howell and the Commanders are hosting the potentially historically bad Cardinals at home in the season opener.

That is enough right there to roster Howell, especially at this price (he’s arguably even better on DK at $4900), but add in that Terry McLaurin is trending towards playing and I love him this week.

Don’t need to run it back with anyone, but I guess I’m a bit intrigued by James Conner as I think they could end up giving him like 20+ carries and he gets there on volume alone.

Javonte Williams RB Denver Broncos

Ownership: FD: 7.87%

Salary: DK $6500

We currently have Williams at a touch under 8% owned on FD but I’m seeing him much lower than that across the industry and that has me drooling to get him in my lineups this week.

The Broncos get the terrible Raiders front 7 at home at altitude and with the incredible recovery from his ACL injury last October, he’s slated, at least according to Head Coach Sean Payton to have a ‘big role’ in week 1.

Samaje Perine is lurking to steal some snaps, especially on passing downs, but the problem with Perine is that he’s just not very good, where as Williams is one of the more dynamic young backs in the league. Sean Payton, like him or not, is no dummy and he’s going to feed Williams if he’s rolling.

More of a one off for me than anything as there’s pretty much no one I’m interested in on the Raiders.

Chris Godwin WR Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Ownership: FD 6.97%

Salary: FD $6800

Slight downgrade for Godwin at the QB position this year going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, but Godwin is a stud in an offense that could be forced to huck it a ton.

Mike Evans came off the injury report this week but is dealing with a groin issue and we know how those go. The Vikings secondary, while slightly improved in the offseason is still going to be awful and their pass rush will be non existent. So Mayfield will have plenty of time to find Godwin downfield.

I think this game blows up and will have plenty of all of the pieces here (Minus Jefferson who I think has a hard time paying off his price tag) in this game.

***UPDATE***

As of Saturday night, Godwin is trending towards over 10% owned, while Mike Evans is trending down. With Evans having a massive height advantage on his DB, I’m switching to him here in this spot. 

Gerald Everett TE Los Angeles Chargers

Ownership: FD 4.74%

Salary: FD: $5500

Only had 5 games last year where he had less than 5 targets and is at a heavily discounted price on FD given that sort of historic production. He’s in one of the premier scoring environments on the slate, and at home with an elite QB.

The only TE who is cheaper than Everett on FD that I’m even considering is Juwan Johnson but add in everyone’s least favorite player Taysom Hill and his red zone targets/scoring potential are pretty low.

Adam Thielen WR Carolina Panthers

Ownership: FD 2.63%

Salary: FD $6000

After watching Bryce Young in the preseason I’ve come away slightly impressed. I’m not quite ready to fire him up at QB in my lineups yet (though his ability to step up in the pocket and run is intriguing) but I am ready to fire up some of his skill position players, especially ones that he looked most comfortable with in the preseason.

Thielen and Young clicked right away and the thing with Thielen is, that he’s a red zone machine. We saw Cousins look his way early and often down there and a young QB like…Young, will do the same.

The Panthers are terrible, but so are the Falcons so I’m a bit confused as to why the TD props on the Panthers are so low, especially on a guy like Thielen.

Look the floor here is pretty low, but I think he can 3x his salary which on FD is ideal and I’ll be chasing that multi TD game at low ownership that wins me a milly.

***INJURY UPDATE***

Thielen is a true game time decision tomorrow. He is the early game so we will know if he’s playing or not but we need to keep an eye on it. 

***STREAMER SPECIAL DEFENSE***

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-5, 45.5)

Ownership: DK 3% FD 3%

Salary: DK $3500/FD $4400

Richardson is going to be nasty and he’s going to be in the Top Ten plays almost weekly as he gets more comfortable in the league, that being said he’ll also likely end up in the Not Top Ten pretty often, at least early in his career as he’s not the most accurate passer or decision maker.

Jags defense is no joke, and had a stretch of 5 games last year with double digit points. Richardson is going to turn the ball over at a minimum one time with the potential of 2 or 3 and with his scrambling ability he’s bound to take some sacks. Love the Jags this week and think they put up a big number at low ownership on both sites.

That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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