Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 5/5:
May 3, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard James Harden (1) reacts after a play against the Boston Celtics in the third quarter during game two of the 2023 NBA playoffs at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.5
We’ll start with the Eastern Conference where Boston will head on the road with the series knotted up at 1-1. Jayson Tatum had a pretty terrible game last time out and shot the ball just seven times. I doubt people look too deep into it and probably shouldn’t, he’s going to be a top raw option on the slate and if he sees lower ownership due to that game, I would go overweight. Jaylen Brown picked up the slack with Tatum’s down game last time out and is a guy I have no issue going right back to. Our coach, TKMoss, had him as a core play on that showdown slate for game 2 and won our members a bunch of money! Marcus Smart and Derrick White look like similar options in that mid-range, White cooled off in the Atlanta series after a great opening few games, but the minutes are still there. Malcolm Brogdon is my preferred guard option coming off of the bench, however. He had a big game last time out and has the ability to close as he did in game one. Game 2 blew out, so he didn’t close that game but likely would have. Al Horford came down to Earth last time out but they’ll need his size out there with Embiid down low. Finally, Robert Williams is a good option in the mid-range as well, especially with the absence of Embiid on the other end. We do need to touch on Grant Williams who saw 29 minutes as well, he’s a solid value option as he re-inserts himself in the rotation. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid returned last time out and looked incredibly uncomfortable in that knee brace. He comes in as questionable again in this one, but I would assume he’s good to go again here and is a guy I have no issue going back to as Philly returns home. James Harden came down to Earth after a massive game one, Embiid being back will hurt his usage and production but will continue to be a nice option in all formats. Tyrese Maxey has struggled against Boston this season averaging just 22.4 DraftKings points per game in six games, but is a fine secondary option. Tobias Harris is in the same boat as Harden where he’s going to lose some shine with Embiid back, but makes plenty of sense as a secondary option in all formats. Then PJ Tucker and De’Anthony Melton are solid roster fillers if you land on them at their respective price tags.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, James Harden, Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: Grant Williams, PJ Tucker, De’Anthony Melton
GPP Sleeper: Derrick White, Al Horford, Robert Williams, Grant Williams, Tyrese Maxey, PJ Tucker, De’Anthony Melton
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Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Phx -4.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like THE top raw option in all formats if we can find the salary to get up to him, he’s averaging 69.1 DraftKings points per game in four games against the Suns this season and is coming off of a massive game two. Jamal Murray came down to Earth last time out but has been great throughout the postseason and makes sense in all formats. Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon feel like similar options in their price ranges, both have nice upsides but can be volatile. I would probably prefer Gordon if I needed to choose between the two, he’s out there as the Durant stopper and is going to play all the minutes Durant is seeing, so he’ll push for 40 minutes. Then guys like Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all make sense as MME flyers to round out the team. From the Suns, the big news here is they’ll be without Chris Paul with that groin injury. I would expect Cam Payne to get the start at point guard as he was worked back into 17 minutes last time out. Below is how this team operates with Paul off of the court since the trade deadline this season:
- Cam Payne – 24.5% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Devin Booker – 33.9% usage rate; 1.47 fpm
- Josh Okogie – 17.6% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Kevin Durant – 38.5% usage rate; 1.77 fpm (small sample size)
- Deandre Ayton – 26.2% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
Kevin Durant couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat last time out but still shot enough to get us there if you played him. I’m going to go right back to him in this spot as he and Booker are going to have to do everything for this team. Speaking of Devin Booker, he dropped a 50 burger last time out and is going to have the ball in his hands more with Paul out. Deandre Ayton isn’t a sexy option by any means, but they’ll need his size out there against Jokic. Then guys like Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig are fine roster fillers if you land on them, I do like Payne as a top value on the slate as well, we’ve seen him put up nice numbers when he gets the playing time.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Deandre Ayton, Cam Payne
Deeper Value: Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, Jeff Green
GPP Sleeper: Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown, Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig
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