Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 5/1:
Apr 29, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Nuggets forward Jeff Green (32) falls over the back of Phoenix Suns center Deandre Ayton (22) in the first half during game one of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 214.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -9.5
We’ll start with the Eastern Conference where Philly will head into Boston as they open up round two. Philly has a lot of rest as they closed out Brooklyn pretty quickly, but the big news here is that Joel Embiid comes in as doubtful. We can assume he’s out for the sake of this article, but once we get confirmation that he’s out I’ll have that news dropped in the Breaking News Feed. We saw Paul Reed start in Embiid’s spot last time out but I wouldn’t be shocked if they went small and started PJ Tucker at the five. Below is how this team operates with Embiid off of the court this season:
- Tyrese Maxey – 29.6% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- James Harden – 31.7% usage rate; 1.44 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 22.9% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- PJ Tucker – 7.1% usage rate; 0.43 fpm
- Paul Reed – 16.2% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
Reed got a much-needed price increase but would still look like a great option in all formats assuming he starts. Harden, Maxey, and Harris are the main pieces I want to get exposure to outside of Reed, as they’ll have to take on most of Embiid’s usage and playmaking. If they do go small with Tucker at the five we would likely see De’Anthony Melton slide into the starting lineup but is another guy who will see good minutes regardless and makes sense as a value option. From Boston, Jayson Tatum had a huge close-out game against the Hawks and is going to look like a top raw option on this slate again tonight. Jaylen Brown has been in good form as well with at least 41 DraftKings points in three straight games, I’m never really a huge fan of playing him just due to his scoring dependency, but on a two-game slate, he’s a great option regardless. Marcus Smart and Derrick White look like similar options in that mid-range, White cooled off in the Atlanta series after a great opening few games, but the minutes are still there. Al Horford had a massive game and looked good over his last two games racking up blocks and steals against Atlanta, he’s a solid secondary option. I really like the price tag on Malcolm Brogdon as well, he’s a guy I have a feeling I’ll play a bunch of in this series. Finally, Robert Williams is a good option in the mid-range as well, especially with the absence of Embiid on the other end.
5-star play: James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Paul Reed, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: PJ Tucker, De’Anthony Melton, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon
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Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Den -4.5
Starting with the Suns, Kevin Durant looked great in the opening game of this series and I would expect that to continue here, he should be right in that 40-minute range all series long and will look like a top raw option in all formats. Devin Booker cooled down slightly after a torrid series against the Clippers, but we know he’s going to shoot a ton and play 40+ minutes as well. He did struggle against the Nuggets a bit this season averaging just 29.4 DraftKings points per game in four games this season… I wouldn’t look too much into it, but worth noting. Chris Paul had a tough game last time out but I expect a bounce-back game, I touched on it in my PrizePicks video this morning but the Nuggets are allowing the 3rd most assists per game to opposing point guards this season which will be Paul’s main role tonight getting the ball to Booker and Durant. Deandre Ayton had a tough game in game 1 but they’ll need his size against Jokic so he’ll play all the minutes he can handle. Then guys like Josh Okogie and Torrey Craig are fine roster fillers if you land on them. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like THE top raw option in all formats if we can find the salary to get up to him, he’s averaging 67.7 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Suns this season. Jamal Murray had a great series against the Wolves last round and had a massive game one against the Suns. I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 6-10 from three-point range again, but he’s a great play regardless. Michael Porter Jr and Aaron Gordon feel like similar options in their price ranges, both have nice upsides but can be volatile. Then guys like Bruce Brown, Jeff Green, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope all make sense as MME flyers to round out the team.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray
4-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: Jeff Green, Torrey Craig
GPP Sleeper: Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig, Jeff Green, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown
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