Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/26:
Apr 24, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) celebrates after making a shot against the Milwaukee Bucks in the fourth quarter during game four of the 2023 NBA Playoffs at Kaseya Center. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
New York Knicks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 202.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -5.5
We’ll start with the Eastern Conference where the Knicks will look to close it out against the Cavs in Cleveland. The big thing to take away from their last game was Julius Randle getting benched in the fourth quarter. I don’t think it’s going to carry too much over into this game, but at the very least it tells us what they’re willing to do. Randle has not been in good form and has seen his production trend in the wrong direction in each game in this series. That said, we haven’t seen him this cheap in a long team, and could be a prime buy-low spot on him. Jalen Brunson was great last time out and is going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle, he’ll look like a great option in all formats. RJ Barrett and Josh Hart both look like nice options in their price range, they’re fairly similar plays, but probably guys I’d prefer to use in tournaments due to the volatility. Mitchell Robinson had a nice game last time out as well and has seen his production trend in the right direction, we know the upside is there on him too with that block upside. Then I have no issue with Isaiah Hartenstein as a value option, he should see around 20 minutes yet again here. From the Cavs, I think we’re in for a big Donovan Mitchell game with their backs against the wall. He had a terrible shooting game last time out which was represented in his production. We know he has a ceiling and I think we see something close to it tonight, I like being overweight on him. Darius Garland looked good last time out and makes sense at a price tag that seems too cheap. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley look like similar options, I’ll probably get more Mobley due to the multi-position eligibility, but they both look solid. They both have multi-position on FanDuel which makes it easier to get to Allen. Lastly, Caris LeVert will remain in the starting lineup in all likelihood and has played at least 35 minutes in three straight games, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats.
5-star play: Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Julius Randle, RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Mitchell Robinson, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Darius Garland, Caris LeVert
Deeper Value: Cedi Osman, Isaiah Hartenstein
GPP Sleeper: RJ Barrett, Josh Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein, Cedi Osman
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -4.0
Starting with the Lakers, LeBron James was a core play in our cheat sheets for me last time out because I thought he would look to make a statement against Dillon Brooks… and he did. He’s going to look like an elite option yet again here and would be my preferred option over Anthony Davis who had a down game. That’s not to say Davis is a bad option since we know the ceiling is there, but I’ll have more exposure to James. Davis is also center only on DraftKings which makes it a bit harder to get to him. D’Angelo Russell struggled with foul trouble last time out but is a guy I have no issue going back to especially if people are going to feel burned by him. Austin Reaves will continue to see all the minutes he can handle and makes sense in all formats. Rui Hachimura finally came down to Earth last time out and I think his price has over-adjusted for his median production now. Then Jarred Vanderbilt was also a core play for me last time out and he went bananas in 20 minutes. He’s going to be out there due to his defense, I have no issue going right back to the well on him. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant came down to Earth last time out but will need to carry this team again tonight if they want to avoid elimination. He’s going to play all the minutes he can handle once again and looks like a nice option. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been great in this series so far outside of their last game, I don’t mind going back to him but the price tag is certainly up. Desmond Bane easily had his best game of the series last time out and did it even with shooting 3-12 from three-point range. The price tag is fair on him as well, I like going back to the well. Xavier Tillman kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight. Then, Dillon Brooks is always a fine GPP option, the minutes will be there but they made it pretty clear they don’t want him shooting moving forward, they basically didn’t pass him the ball in the second half. He’s so bad offensively, but he doesn’t seem to realize that.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Ja Morant
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Austin Reaves, Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman
Deeper Value: David Roddy
GPP Sleeper: Rui Hachimura, Jarred Vanderbilt, Dennis Schroder, Dillon Brooks, David Roddy
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -12.0
Starting with the Heat and the elephant in the room… Jimmy effing Butler, good god. Absolutely massive game for him last time out and I think we can use that to our advantage when it comes to ownership today. I would imagine a lot of the public is going to look to go right back to him, but I think we can zag. I would expect the Bucks to make adjustments and put Giannis, Jrue, and even Wes Matthews on him defensively and go over those screens instead of under them to get in his face a bit more. I also mentioned it in my PrizePicks video this morning but in seven games in Butler’s career where he has scored 35+ points and won, the following games he is 1-6 with an average loss margin of 11 points per game while he’s averaging just 22 points per game… I think we have a nice leverage spot sitting there for us tonight with going underweight on him. So if we expect the Bucks to clamp him in a way, we go to these other pieces, I would think Bam Adebayo looks to rebound after a down game last time out and is someone we can go back to. Caleb Martin had a big fourth quarter that kick-started this team a bit and is someone I like again here. Max Strus had a terrible game last time out but is a guy that can get hot from three-point range at the drop of a hat. Duncan Robinson continues to play around 25-30 minutes and has a similar skill set to Strus, he’s a nice value option. I would expect Kevin Love to remain in the starting lineup and is a guy we can go to as well in the mid-range. Then, Kyle Lowry is a fine option in that price range as well as a lineup filler. From the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo returned last time out and didn’t look hampered by his injury all that much, he comes into this one as probable and I’m expecting a big game out of him as we’ve seen him do with his back against the wall time and time again. He’s the top raw option on the slate for me here. Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday will take a hit to their production, but their price tags really aren’t all that bad. Brook Lopez had a monster game last time out as well as the Heat played some sort of zone that left the middle of the lane wide open for Lopez, if they do that again tonight he’s in for a big game. We’ve seen some big games from Pat Connaughton over his last few after not playing in game one. With Wes Matthews returning he could see his minutes cut a bit but I would think they look to cut Ingles before Connaughton who has looked better.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Caleb Martin, Duncan Robinson, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Pat Connaughton, Duncan Robinson
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Kyle Lowry, Gabe Vincent, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton
Golden State Warriors @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -1.5
Starting with the Warriors, Draymond Green returned from his suspension last time out but came off of the bench. That said, he still saw 31 minutes so if he’s off of the bench again here I wouldn’t expect any sort of huge change in his minutes. It was interesting to see a huge bump in his shot attempts (14) last time out… he did shoot well, but he was shooting. Donte DiVincenzo came down to Earth a bit with Payton and Green back, he’s more of a tournament option to me here. Steph Curry kept it rolling last time out and is a guy they’re going to need again as they head back on the road where they have struggled all season. Klay Thompson bounced back nicely last time out and has been as steady as they come, I have no problem going back to him in this price range. Andrew Wiggins had a really nice game last time out thanks to seven blocks/steals, he’s going to look great again here. Then Kevon Looney kept it rolling and has been great in this series. From the Kings, it sounds like De’Aaron Fox is going to play despite being listed as questionable with that fractured finger. He has at least 53 DraftKings points in each game of this series. Domantas Sabonis has not been good in this series, they’ve done a really nice job on him defensively. Kevin Huerter and Malik Monk should both play around 30 minutes and are guys I like going back to as well. Monk bounced back nicely last time out while Huerter was not great. Harrison Barnes makes sense as a filler option as well, while Keegan Murray found his shooting and had a great game, I have no issue going right back to him in this one.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Andrew Wiggins, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
Deeper Value: Donte DiVincenzo, Davion Mitchell
GPP Sleeper: Donte DiVincenzo, Davion Mitchell, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter
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