Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 4/22:
Apr 19, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Anthony Davis (3) and forward LeBron James (6) watch during the second half during game two of the 2023 NBA playoffs against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Philadelphia 76ers @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 209.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.0
We’ll start with the Eastern Conference the Sixers are going for the sweep, but will be shorthanded as they’ll be without Joel Embiid. I would think they end up going small with PJ Tucker as the starting center and then throwing Paul Reed in there for short bursts similar to what we’ve already seen. Below is how this team operates with Embiid off of the court this season:
- Tyrese Maxey – 29.6% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- James Harden – 31.7% usage rate; 1.44 fpm
- De’Anthony Melton – 21.3% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Tobias Harris – 22.9% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- PJ Tucker – 7.1% usage rate; 0.43 fpm
I would expect Harden and Maxey to do the heavy lifting from a usage standpoint, but I have no issues with any of these guys, although I likely won’t get too much Tucker. I’d probably just rather go down even further and go to Paul Reed who should see around 15-20 minutes. From the Nets, it’s win or go home and they’ll look to take advantage with Embiid out. I thought they would go small last time out and they did just the opposite by leaning into having Claxton out there. He’s going to look great here against a suddenly undersized frontcourt. Mikal Bridges won’t do much outside of scoring but he’s going to look to score early and often, he’s been a guy I’ve gone to quite a bit since coming over from the Suns. Spencer Dinwiddie bounced back nicely last time out and is going to look solid yet again here at a nice price tag. Cam Johnson kept it rolling as well and is a guy that makes plenty of sense in the mid-range. Then guys like Royce O’Neale and Dorrian Finney-Smith are fine secondary options to round out the team.
5-star play: James Harden, Tyrese Maxey
4-star play: De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Nic Claxton, Cam Johnson
Deeper Value: Paul Reed, De’Anthony Melton
GPP Sleeper: Paul Reed, PJ Tucker, Royce O’Neale, Dorrian Finney-Smith
Phoenix Suns @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -7.5
Starting with the Suns, who will look to take a 3-1 series advantage and go back to Phoenix for game five. Kevin Durant has come down to Earth a bit over his last couple of games but will continue to play all the minutes he can handle and can take over a ball game whenever he wants. Devin Booker has had the big game over the last couple of games and is shooting a ton of shots with at least 22 field goal attempts in back-to-back games. Torrey Craig continues to knock down open threes with a combined eight three-pointers made over his last two games and makes sense in the mid-range. Chris Paul was solid in game two, he’s always going to look like a good option due to the floor he brings as well. Then Deandre Ayton is going to look good as well, the ceiling probably isn’t what it was pre-Durant, but the floor is there and he’s going to play 30+ minutes in a nice matchup. From the Clippers, they’ll be without Kawhi Leonard and Paul George again in this one, we saw Norman Powell move into the starting lineup last time out and would expect more of the same in this one. Below is how this team has operated with these guys off of the court since the trade deadline:
- Russell Westbrook – 29.5% usage rate; 1.44 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 17.4% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Norman Powell – 34.0% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Nic Batum – 13.8% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Ivica Zubac – 19.7% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
Westbrook and Powell had massive games last time out and would be my favorite options again in this one. I have no problem with Terance Mann and/or Bones Hyland off of the bench either as they will pick up more minutes with George and Kawhi out.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Russell Westbrook, Norman Powell
4-star play: Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul, Torrey Craig, Eric Gordon, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: Nic Batum
GPP Sleeper: Terance Man, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee
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Milwaukee Bucks @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 220.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -5.0
On to the Bucks where the big question mark is if Giannis Antetokounmpo will play or not. He comes in as questionable and I kind of think they just rest him until Miami wins another game or he’s back to 100%. So, I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out, but if he plays he’ll look great while the rest of this team will take a slight hit in their usage and production while Bobby Portis would move back to the bench. Below is how this team has operated with Giannis off of the court this season:
- Jrue Holiday – 30.9% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 18.9% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- Khris Middleton – 32.1% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.7% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 22.3% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
Holiday, Middleton, and Portis would be my favorite options as they take on a massive role any time Giannis sits, but guys like Lopez and Allen are fine as well. Lopez had a really nice game last time out after a slow game one. From the Heat, they left Duncan Robinson in the starting lineup with Tyler Herro out last time out. He ended up playing 26 minutes and will make for a solid value option on this slate. Kevin Love came crashing down to Earth and would be more of a secondary option as his price comes up as well. Jimmy Butler had a down game as well but will need him if they stand a chance in this series. The same can be said for Bam Adebayo, but he lost a bunch of minutes due to the blowout. Then, guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Caleb Martin are all fine secondary options to round out this team.
***The below assumes Giannis is OUT***
5-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Bobby Portis
4-star play: Brook Lopez, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Caleb Martin
Deeper Value: Duncan Robinson
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Joe Ingles, Pat Connaughton, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 221.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -4.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, it sounds like Ja Morant did some non-contact work at practice on Friday, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s good to go as they head into Los Angeles with the series tied up. He’s averaging 46.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Lakers this season and will be a nice leverage piece, as I would expect he’s low-owned with that injury designation. Jaren Jackson Jr. has been great in this series so far, the price tag is up, but I think he’s a nice option in all formats. Desmond Bane was a massive disappointment last time out with Ja out, he’s going to be a secondary option here even if Morant misses. Tyus Jones is probably only in play if Morant sits for me, I need him to be starting and playing all the minutes. Xavier Tillman was a new man in game two after looking completely overmatched in game one. He’s going to play big minutes again in this one and makes sense in all formats. Then, Dillon Brooks is always a fine GPP option, the minutes will be there and we know he looks to shoot when he’s in there. From the Lakers, Anthony Davis and LeBron James look like similar options at similar price tags, both will look great in this one and will play massive minutes. D’Angelo Russell was fairly chalky last time out and the price tag is just so enticing, he’s more of a GPP option regardless at this point. Austin Reaves will continue to see all the minutes he can handle and makes sense in all formats. Rui Hachimura kept it rolling last time out and is going to see 30+ minutes and will look like a nice option in all formats. Then guys like Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley are solid tournament guys to round out hte team.
5-star play: Ja Morant, LeBron James, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman, D’Angelo Russell, Rui Hachimura, Austin Reavees
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
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