Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/8:
Mar 7, 2023; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Donte DiVincenzo (0) defends Oklahoma City Thunder guard Josh Giddey (3) during the first quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Hawks, Trae Young has been extremely consistent outside of these last two games against a tough Heat defense. He scored 45 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season, this is a great bounce-back spot for him. I never love Dejounte Murray when Trae is in there but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. He’d be more of a tournament option than anything for me in this one. Clint Capela dropped 47.75 DraftKings points in this spot last week but his minutes are volatile which makes him more of a tournament option as well. Then the group of De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Saddiq Bey eat into each other’s production and are fine GPP darts if you land on them in your builds. From the Wizards, Monte Morris ended up missing their game again last night and would think he misses again in this one, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. Delon Wright would slide right back into the starting lineup and look like a nice option if Morris were to miss. Kristaps Porzingis has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and would look like a strong option yet again in a nice matchup. Bradley Beal had a massive game last night against a shorthanded Pistons team and now has at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five and will be a guy I like going right back to in an elite matchup. Kyle Kuzma ended up playing last night and was fine in 35 minutes, he’s more of a secondary option than anything. Daniel Gafford isn’t a guy I like any time Kuzma and Kristaps are good to go.
5-star play: Trae Young
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Bradley Beal, Kristaps Porzingis, Delon Wright
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Saddiq Bey, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford
Portland Trail Blazers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -10.0
Starting with the Blazers, Anfernee Simons will be out again in this one after being out for their last couple of games after returning briefly. With Simons out, we can go right back to Damian Lillard even in a tough matchup against this Boston defense, he also has a 40.4% usage rate and 1.72 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. That said, Jusuf Nurkic actually comes into this one as questionable and is obviously news we’ll need, but I would imagine he’s pretty heavily limited if he’s able to give it a go. Jerami Grant has been solid over their last couple of games and is a guy I like here as well, he’s been pretty consistent as of late. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic if he’s out again and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. Reddish is the top option of the three, he’s been in great form as of late. From the Celtics, Jaylen Brown kept it rolling last time out and has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games. The matchup sets up nicely as well, as this Blazers team has struggled all season on defense. Jayson Tatum has been incredible over his last three games and will look like one of the better spend-up options on the slate. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. I don’t love the matchup for any of them, but Smart has the most locked-in minutes, so if I had to choose between them, he would probably be the guy I look toward. Then, Robert Williams will miss this game again, we saw Mike Muscala start last time out and play 35 minutes, if you told me we’d get 35 minutes from him again tonight, I’d be all over him.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Cam Reddish, Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, Derrick White
Deeper Value: Mike Muscala
GPP Sleeper: Jusuf Nurkic (if playing), Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Al Horford
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 214.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.5
We’ll start with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell was questionable all day last time out but ended up playing and playing extremely well in a tough matchup with Boston. He’s going to look like a fine option here, I don’t love the matchup, but he has at least 54 FanDuel points in three of his last four. The price tag on Darius Garland has come up which doesn’t make you feel great in a tougher matchup against this Heat defense, but he’s been in good form. Evan Mobley is averaging 37.4 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Heat this season and makes sense here, he’s been in great form. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more. We can probably make a case for Ricky Rubio as a dart throw value option as well… but hopefully, we get better value opening up. From the Heat, Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag in a bad matchup with the Cavs. He’s probably not a guy I’ll prioritize, but I’d have no issue with him if you land on him to round out a roster. Jimmy Butler has been showing a nice ceiling as of late as well, he has at least 49 FanDuel points in three of his last five. Bam Adebayo came down to Earth last time out after a big game in game one against the Hawks. This is a tough matchup with Mobley and Allen down low, so more of a secondary option for me. Guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will continue to fill the void left by Kyle Lowry who has already been ruled out in this one. Then Kevin Love comes in as questionable after missing their last game, if he’s forced to miss guys like Strus and Caleb Martin would see a boost.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarrett Allen, Tyler Herro, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Kevin Love
Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -1.5
Starting with the Mavs, we kind of know the deal with this team… it’s Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and that’s about it. Doncic bounced back nicely last night and gets a great matchup in this one. He’s averaging 61.4 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pelicans this season. The price tag on Kyrie makes sense as well, he’s been in great form since joining the Mavericks with a 27.7% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute on the team. We should touch on Tim Hardaway Jr. who had a massive game last night, I would not chase that production, if the public is going to… let them, we’ll get some leverage. From the Pels, Jonas Valanciunas returned last time out to play 32 minutes and should be a full go moving forward. He’s volatile but the upside is certainly there in a great matchup. Brandon Ingram somewhat bounced back last time out, but the matchup here is great, the Mavs aren’t playing any sort of defense. CJ McCollum is never a guy I love when Ingram is in there but I have no issue going back to him if you land on him in this one. Then guys like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy are coming off of nice games last time out and will look solid enough here but will take a slight hit with Josh Richardson back.
5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Josh Richardson
Chicago Bulls @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Den -8.0
Starting with the Bulls, they’re never all that fun to break down due to the big three eating into each other’s production. Zach LaVine is coming off of a big game last time out while DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vucevic have been pretty average at best. All of these guys are secondary options for me on this slate, but I don’t have an issue with them if you fall on them to round out your lineups. DeRozan and LaVine are pretty even on usage this season at 28.6% while Vucevic leads the team in averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute. Patrick Beverley has been starting at point guard since signing with the team and isn’t a great per-minute producer but the minutes will certainly be there if you need a value option. Then guys like Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso are fine secondary GPP options as well. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate after a down game last time out… I use down game loosely, as he still dropped 48 DraftKings points. Jamal Murray seems like he’s starting to find his groove again and is a guy I like going back to in this one. He has at least 46 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Then guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. make sense as secondary options and we can probably add Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to that group, but he’s in a different price range.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: Patrick Beverley, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Beverley, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
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Oklahoma City Thunder @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -13.5
Starting with the Thunder, they’ll be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in this one. We saw Aaron Wiggins start for Williams last night, so I would assume that sticks while Isaiah Joe and Tre Mann should pick up the Gilgeous-Alexander minutes in this one. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Josh Giddey – 25.5% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Isaiah Joe – 20.2% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Lu Dort – 26.7% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Aaron Wiggins – 16.1% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
- Jaylin Williams – 15.2% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
Giddey, Joe, and Dort are going to be my favorite options here while Jaylin Williams is an interesting value center option. I’m not a big Wiggins guy, he’s just not all that great of a per-minute producer in his career. Ousmane Dieng saw some minutes last night as well and has played well over his last couple of games and makes sense as a tournament dart throw. From the Suns, Kevin Durant was awesome on Sunday and is going to look like a nice option at this price tag again in this one. He’s going to be a full-go moving forward after playing 40 minutes in that Dallas game. Devin Booker kept it rolling even with Durant in there, he has at least 57 DraftKings points in three straight games and gets an elite matchup against a Thunder team that isn’t playing any sort of defense. Deandre Ayton has been fine, I don’t have any sort of lean on him, if I land on him I’m good with it. I don’t love Chris Paul as much, as he’ll become more of a distributor with Durant out there now, he’s more of a secondary tournament option. Then we can probably jump off of the Josh Okogie train as well, but the minutes should continue to be there for him… he’ll become interesting when his price drops a bit more because he’s going to have some open threes, he just happened to shoot 0-8 last time out.
5-star play: Josh Giddey, Kevin Durant, Devin Booker
4-star play: Isaiah Joe, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams, Deandre Ayton, Chris Paul
Deeper Value: Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng
GPP Sleeper: Tre Mann, Aaron Wiggins, Ousmane Dieng, Josh Okogie, Torrey Craig
Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -3.0
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam hasn’t been great over his last handful of games and has a fine matchup in this one. I can’t say he’s my favorite option here, but the price tag is nice considering he dropped 57.75 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Fred VanVleet has been good over his last couple of games and gets a solid matchup here, I have no issue going right back to the well with him in this one. Scottie Barnes is hard to trust but we know the minutes will be there if you land on him as a last-piece-in type of guy. Jakob Poeltl has been great since joining the Raptors and will look like a nice option yet again in this one. He’s averaging 36.88 DraftKings/39.08 FanDuel points per game in ten games with the Raptors this season. Then guys like OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. make sense as secondary options to round out this team. From the Clippers, Ivica Zubac has finally cleared his name from the injury report but Mason Plumlee has started to cut into his minutes, both guys are going to be GPP-only guys for me in this one. Kawhi Leonard returned last time out and had a massive game against the Grizzlies, I have no issue going back to him in a revenge game against his old squad. Paul George had a massive game in that Grizzlies game as well, he has at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, and makes sense here as well. Russell Westbrook will be more of a GPP guy, but the minutes will be there as he continues to start for this team. Then Eric Gordon is a fine dart throw with Norman Powell out again here.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, Paul George
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Gary Trent, Scottie Barnes, Ivica Zubac, Mason Plumlee, Russell Westbrook, Eric Gordon
NBA Lock of the Day: Isaiah Joe (DK – $4.4k; FD – $4.4k)
I’m going right back to the well with Isaiah Joe in this one. The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams again here. Joe will pickup the playmaking that is lost with those guys out, this guy is not afraid to shoot when he’s in there and has a 20.2% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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