Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/7:
Mar 5, 2023; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; New York Knicks guard RJ Barrett (9) (center) and guard Immanuel Quickley (5) celebrate during the during the fourth quarter of their double overtime win over the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -7.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Bucks, Jrue Holiday comes into this game as questionable after Khris Middleton had a rest day last time out. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed regarding his status as we get closer to lock, but for the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. He’s been solid as of late and the price tag has come down to a more playable range, I would have no issue with him if you landed on him to fill out your lineup. Giannis Antetokounmpo has played at least 35 minutes in back-to-back games, but both games stayed competitive which is the key behind those minutes. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate regardless. Middleton saw 27 minutes which is a high mark since returning from injury, I wonder if there’s a chance he moves back into the starting lineup here… regardless I would expect he plays around 25 minutes yet again as they continue to ramp him up. Brook Lopez continues to play great with at least 32 DraftKings points in four of his last five, I have no issue going back to him here as well. Then guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder are all secondary GPP darts, while I don’t see a reason to get to Bobby Portis at this price tag. From the Magic, Jalen Suggs is hard for me to trust especially with Cole Anthony back and in the rotation. He’s too volatile for cash games but makes plenty of sense in tournaments, the same can probably be said for Anthony who has been in good form as of late. Suggs did end up starting with Gary Harris out last time, so if he’s in the starting lineup again he’ll look like a nice option. Markelle Fultz has been extremely consistent over their last handful of games and is a nice option at this price tag in a nice matchup. Paolo Banchero has at least 38 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and will look like a nice option in this matchup. Franz Wagner is rarely ever a guy I love and want to prioritize but he makes sense at the very least in this one. Then Wendell Carter Jr. ended up missing their last game which led to a Moe Wagner start, we can go right back to that well if he misses this one as well.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Paolo Banchero, Markelle Fultz, Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Jae Crowder, Wendell Carter Jr.
Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Was -7.0
Starting with the Wizards, Monte Morris and Kyle Kuzma come into this one as questionable, Morris has missed their last few games, so I’ll assume he’s out again in this one but I’ll operate as if Kuzma is back in there. Delon Wright would slide right back into the starting lineup and look like a nice option if Morris were to miss. Kristaps Porzingis has at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and would look like a strong option yet again in this one. Bradley Beal has been much better as of late and is a guy I don’t mind going to here either, but more of a secondary option than anything. Kyle Kuzma hasn’t been a guy I’ve gotten a ton of lately, but not a guy I hate if you land on to round out a lineup in a great matchup. Daniel Gafford isn’t a guy I like any time Kuzma and Kristaps are good to go, but he’ll look solid if Kuzma is forced to miss. From the Pistons, we don’t have an injury report for them quite yet and they have about six legit question marks with Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, and Rodney McGruder… so I’m going to leave this team for the Breaking News Feed to breakdown once we get that injury report.
5-star play: DET TBD
4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Delon Wright, Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, DET TBD
Deeper Value: DET TBD
GPP Sleeper: Daniel Gafford, DET TBD
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Charlotte Hornets @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -10.0
We’ll start with the Hornets, PJ Washington returned last time out and played 35 minutes, so it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited moving forward, and looks like a nice option yet again. I would expect Kelly Oubre to stick around in the starting lineup while JT Thor moves back to the bench with Washington back in there. Below is how this team operates with Ball (and Mason Plumlee) off of the court this season:
- Terry Rozier – 30.1% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Kelly Oubre – 27.1% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Gordon Hayward – 21.1% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- PJ Washington – 24.7% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Mark Williams – 19.8% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
Guys like Rozier and Oubre take a bit of a hit with Washington in there, but will still look like great options yet again. From the Knicks, Jalen Brunson ended up missing their last game which lead to an explosion from Immanuel Quickley, if he misses again we can go right back to the well, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock for that news. Mitchell Robinson is going to be a guy I like quite a bit here. He played 44 minutes last time out and bounced back nicely, now he gets an elite matchup with this Hornets front court at a dirt cheap price tag. Josh Hart is a hard guy for me to trust with the minutes he’s getting, he was a lot easier to like when he was playing minutes in the mid-30s and not mid-20s. Julius Randle seems like he’s priced right about where he should be but the matchup is great as I’ve mentioned, so I have no issue going back to him here either. Then, RJ Barrett has been pretty volatile as of late making him a tournament option, but would see a boost if Brunson ends up missing again.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson (DraftKings)
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Mark Williams, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, Josh Hart
Philadelphia 76ers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -1.0
Starting with the Sixers, Tobias Harris and PJ Tucker ended up missing last night’s game which lead to a start for Jalen McDaniels who looked great and would be a nice value option if they were to sit again in this one. Joel Embiid was solid in a win last night against the Pacers, he’s going to look like a nice spend-up option against this Wolves team again tonight. James Harden just continues to put up consistent numbers, he has at least 45 FanDuel points in six of his last seven games. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are GPP guys who will need to fight for usage with Embiid and Harden as the main pieces in the offense. Maxey has been a guy I’ve gotten a bunch of as of late, he’s just too cheap on DraftKings for the number of minutes he’s playing right now. From the Wolves, Rudy Gobert is going to continue to be a guy I like going forward, he’s been in great form as of late with at least 35 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Mike Conley has helped his production immensely since coming over in the D’Angelo Russell trade. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards has been a bit more volatile as of late but I love the matchup in this one, he’s going to look like a solid option in all formats. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as GPP options at the forward position.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Tyrese Maxey, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson
Deeper Value: Jalen McDaniels (if starting)
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, Jaden McDaniels
Golden State Warriors @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 242.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.5
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry returned last time out and played 32 minutes, so I would think he’s a full-go moving forward and is going to look like a nice spend-up option in an elite matchup with this Thunder team. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will take the biggest hit in terms of usage and fantasy production as Curry absorbs more attention in the offense and their price tags don’t reflect that quite yet, so I’ll be underweight on these guys for the time being. Draymond Green is a fine option, but never a guy I feel the need to prioritize. Donte DiVincenzo remained in the starting lineup with Curry back and put up good numbers, he’s going to be a solid mid-range option until Andrew Wiggins returns. Finally, Kevon Looney has been in good form since the All-Star break and gets a nice matchup in this one if you need a mid-range center option. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander returned last time out and was supposedly on a minutes limit… then went out and played 36 minutes. Trusting the Thunder is hard to do, but I’ll just assume he’s a full go moving forward and looks like a great option in a fast-paced matchup. Josh Giddey wasn’t impacted by Gilgeous-Alexander returning, he now has at least 49 DraftKings points in three straight games and is going to look like a nice option yet again in this one. The same can be said for Jalen Williams who has at least 43 DraftKings points in four straight games and makes sense here as well in a great matchup. Lu Dort is more of a tournament option as this team gets healthier, he has some volatility to him. Then, I would expect Jaylin Williams to be the guy we want at the five and is a solid value option.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevon Looney, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Jaylin Williams, Lu Dort
Be sure to check out our PrizePicks tool as well which provides our projection in relation to the PrizePicks line giving us max leverage to hammer home those best prop spots. Our props team has been killing it! CLICK HERE TO CHECK IT OUT.
Brooklyn Nets @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -6.0
Starting with the Nets, Ben Simmons will be out in this one, but he’s essentially their third-string center right now, so I don’t think it entirely matters. Spencer Dinwiddie dropped a 50-burger on the Hornets last time out and is going to look like a great option yet again in a great matchup here. Mikal Bridges is in the same boat and is a guy I’ve been all over since his first games with the team. He’s taking on a bigger role than he ever has before, he has a 26.9% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute since joining the team. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which makes him more of a tournament option than anything, his production becomes much more volatile. Nicolas Claxton seems slightly too cheap and is a guy I’ll get to in a great matchup with this Rockets frontcourt. Then, Cam Johnson has at least 32 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and looks good as well. From the Rockets, Jalen Green bounced back nicely last time out and couldn’ve had a bigger game but lost minutes due to a blowout against the Spurs. Kevin Porter Jr. shook off the rust as well and is going to look like a strong option again in this one, I wouldn’t expect he’s limited moving forward. Alperen Sengun looked great last time out as well and his price tag has come all the way down to the low $7k range. Then guys like Jabari Smith and KJ Martin make sense as guys to round out the team, they’ll likely stick around in the starting lineup. We can add Tari Eason to that group as well, they’ve shown more of a willingness to give him more playing time and he’s produced nicely, he was a core play for me last slate… he’s also blowout proof which is big for this team.
5-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Tari Eason (DraftKings)
4-star play: Nicolas Claxton, Cam Johnson, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, KJ Martin, Tari Eason (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Thomas, Jabari Smith, KJ Martin
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -9.0
Starting with the Jazz, they should get Lauri Markkanen back in this one after he missed their last game. This will get them almost back to full strength as they wait for Collin Sexton to come back from injury. I would expect Ochai Agbaji moves back to the bench while Talen Horton-Tucker sticks in the starting lineup. Markkanen is going to look good in a great matchup, this Mavs team isn’t playing any sort of defense right now. Jordan Clarkson is averaging 35.2 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Mavs this season and will look good as well. I do have some hesitancy with Horton-Tucker at this price tag, he’s going to lose some usage and opportunity playing next to Markkanen and Clarkson. The same can be said for Kelly Olynyk who has seen a price increase. I do like going right back to Walker Kessler, however, he’s been great averaging 37.3 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. From the Mavs, we kind of know the deal with this team… it’s Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving and that’s about it. Doncic had a down game relative to his price tag last time out but I’ll chalk that up to a bad shooting night going 1-9 from three-point range. The price tag on Kyrie continues to fall, I don’t mind getting some exposure to him in this one. The rest of this team is pretty ugly on a big slate.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Walker Kessler, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Dwight Powell, Maxi Kleber
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -1.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Ja Morant for the next few games while Brandon Clarke will miss the rest of the season. I would expect Tyus Jones stays in the starting lineup until Morant is back, but we do get Dillon Brooks back in this one. Below is how this team operates with Morant off of the court this season:
- Tyus Jones – 19.4% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Desmond Bane – 28.7% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Dillon Brooks – 27.8% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – 28.9% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
- Xavier Tillman – 15.7% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
Jones got a price increase on DraftKings, but it’s still probably not enough, he’s averaging 42.33 DraftKings/42.25 FanDuel points per game in ten games without Ja this season. We should see more minutes out of Santi Aldama off of the bench as well with Clarke out. From the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him, if he plays he would likely start over Dennis Schroder and make him unplayable. Anthony Davis is the main piece I want from this team, he has at least 60 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and is going to look like an elite option again here. We can round this team out with Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley as secondary options to round out lineups.
5-star play: Tyus Jones, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Dillon Brooks, Xavier Tillman, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
Deeper Value: Santi Aldama
GPP Sleeper: Xavier Tillman, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, D’Angelo Russell/Dennis Schroder (whoever starts)
NBA Lock of the Day: Tyus Jones (DK – $4.9k) Cameron Johnson (FD – $6.0k)
I had to split the lock of the day by site today due to the difference in price on a lot of these guys, for example, Tyus Jones is $7.5k on FanDuel… so not quite a lock! Both of these guys are in great spots and seem underpriced on their respective site. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
