Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/6:
Mar 4, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Atlanta Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic (13) disputes a call with an official in the second half of the game against the Miami Heat at Miami-Dade Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -5.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Celtics, Jaylen Brown has at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, but yesterday’s game was a double overtime game, so take that one with a grain of salt. I don’t love the matchup against a good defense tonight, he’s more of a tournament guy for me. Jayson Tatum has been incredible over his last three games but again, the matchup isn’t ideal. That said, he’s going to look like a great spend-up option on this slate. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. I don’t love the matchup for any of them, but Smart has the most locked-in minutes, so if I had to choose between them, he would probably be the guy I look toward. Brogdon ended up missing last night’s game, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him and Robert Williams as we get closer to lock. From the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell comes into this one as questionable, so watch for that news as well, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go in this one. Mitchell came down to Earth last time out but played just 24 minutes, so I’ll overlook that one. The price tag on Darius Garland has come up which doesn’t make you feel great in a tougher matchup against this Celtics’ defense, but he’s been in good form. Evan Mobley is averaging 33.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Celtics this season and makes sense here as well, but probably not a guy I would prioritize by any means. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more. We can probably make a case for Ricky Rubio as a dart throw value option as well.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: Ricky Rubio
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Robert Williams, Ricky Rubio
Philadelphia 76ers @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -6.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid was solid in a win against the Bucks on Saturday and gets an elite matchup against the Pacers in this one. He wasn’t all that great in this matchup earlier this season, but he played just 28 minutes in that one, he’s going to look great as a spend-up option on this slate. James Harden just continues to put up consistent numbers, he has at least 45 FanDuel points in five of his last six games. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are GPP guys who will need to fight for usage with Embiid and Harden as the main pieces in the offense. Maxey’s minutes are trending in the right direction which is good to see at the very least. Harris got banged up on Saturday and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton had a massive game yesterday and has at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. His price tag hasn’t moved and will look great again in this one. Myles Turner will have his hands full with Embiid down low, but we know the ceiling is there with him if he can stay out of foul trouble. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him and he’s coming off of a nice game last time out. Jordan Nwora has been a guy I’ve been playing a bunch of as of late, he’s playing around 25 minutes per game over his last handful of games and isn’t afraid to shoot when he’s in there. I have no issue going back to him as a GPP value option again especially on DraftKings at his price tag. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard are solid tournament options in a nice matchup.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: Jordan Nwora
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Nwora, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Tobias Harris
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Portland Trail Blazers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Por -6.5
We’ll start with the Blazers, I would imagine Anfernee Simons will be out again in this one after being out for their last couple of games after returning briefly. With Simons out, we can go right back to Damian Lillard in an elite matchup with this Pistons backcourt, he also has a 40.4% usage rate and 1.72 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. Jerami Grant has been solid over their last couple of games and is a guy I like here as well, this game shouldn’t have a whole lot of defense being played. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. From the Pistons, they’ll be without Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart, and Jalen Duren while James Wiseman and Killian Hayes come in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that Wiseman and Hayes are good to go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. We saw Marvin Bagley get the start on Saturday and would imagine they do the same in this one, he’s going to look like an elite mid-range option in a great matchup. He has a 24.5% usage rate and 1.29 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season. Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes have been in solid form and look like fine mid-range options, they get a nice bounce-back matchup after a tough game against the Cavaliers. I do like getting to Marvin Bagley off of the bench, he has at least 38 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and his minutes should look good with these guys out. Then, Hamidou Diallo should run this second unit, and makes plenty of sense at this price tag.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Marvin Bagley
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, James Wiseman, Hamidou Diallo
Deeper Value: Drew Eubanks
GPP Sleeper: Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, James Wiseman, Alec Burks
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -3.0
We saw this matchup the last time these two teams took the court, so we have something to go off of here. Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young has been extremely consistent as of late but came down to Earth in this matchup last time out. I’m going to chalk a lot of that up to a bad shooting night, but the Heat play good defense and want to slow things down. I never love Dejounte Murray when Trae is in there and he came down to Earth in this matchup on Saturday as well. He’d be more of a tournament option than anything for me in this one. Clint Capela has at least 35 DraftKings points in three straight games, the minutes are always volatile, but he’s an elite per-minute producer. Then the group of De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Saddiq Bey eat into each other’s production and are fine GPP darts if you land on them in your builds. From Miami, Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag in a nice matchup with this Hawks backcourt. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last five but was held under 21 DraftKings points in two of those games as well. That said, I do like the matchup and he looked good on Saturday. Jimmy Butler has been showing a nice ceiling as of late as well. This Hawks team doesn’t play much defense, so he’s going to look solid as well in this one. Bam Adebayo had a major bounce-back game last time out and will look great again in this one. Guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will continue to fill the void left by Kyle Lowry who has already been ruled out in this one. Then Kevin Love was fine last time out but I would imagine he continues to start for them, I just wish he was a little cheaper.
5-star play: Trae Young, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Saddiq Bey, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Kevin Love
Toronto Raptors @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Den -6.0
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam hasn’t been great over his last handful of games and has a tough matchup in this one. I can’t say he’s my favorite option here, but the price tag is nice. Fred VanVleet bounced back in a big way last time out and is going to play all the minutes he can handle, I have no issue going right back to the well with him in this one. Scottie Barnes is hard to trust but we know the minutes will be there if you land on him as a last-piece-in type of guy. Jakob Poeltl has been great since joining the Raptors and they’ll need his minutes against Jokic in this one, I think he’s a nice option even in a tough matchup. Then guys like OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. make sense as secondary options to round out this team. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate after bouncing back nicely on Friday night. He’ll be up there with Embiid and Tatum as great options on this slate. Jamal Murray seems like he’s starting to find his groove again and is a guy I like going back to in this one. He has at least 46 DraftKings points in three straight games. Then guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. make sense as secondary options and we can probably add Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to that group, but he’s in a different price range.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl, Gary Trent, OG Anunoby, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
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New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -5.0
Starting with the Pelicans, Jonas Valanciunas comes into this one as questionable after missing his last few games. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. If he’s out, we’ll see Willy Hernangomez start again but they would more than likely look to go small as they have over the last few games. Guys like Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, and Naji Marshall have seen increased playing time over the last few games with Jo Val out as they did go small. All three would look great again, especially with Larry Nance and Josh Richardson out again. Brandon Ingram came down to Earth last time out but gets an elite matchup here and is going to play close to 40 minutes in competitive games. CJ McCollum is never a guy I love when Ingram is in there but I have no issue going back to him if you land on him in this one. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been great as of late and has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games, he’s going to look like a great option in all formats again in this one. De’Aaron Fox came down to Earth last time out but has also been in great form and is a guy I like going back to here. Then we get to the mid-range of this team which is very bunched together with guys like Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray. I have no issue with any of these guys if you happened to land on them, but Huerter and Barnes make plenty of sense in cash games.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jonas Valanciunas, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
NBA Lock of the Day: Marvin Bagley (DK – $5.5k; FD – $6.2k)
The Pistons will be without Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren, and Isaiah Stewart again in this one while James Wiseman comes in as questionable. We saw Bagley get the start last time out and has been in elite form when given the opportunity. Assuming he starts again in this one he’s going to look like a great option at this price tag in a great matchup against a Blazers team that isn’t playing any sort of defense. He has a 24.5% usage rate and 1.29 fantasy points per minute with these Pistons guys off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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