Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/4:
Nov 18, 2022; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) and Philadelphia 76ers center Joel Embiid (21) congradulate each other after game at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -16.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Pistons, they’ll be pretty shorthanded here without Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, and Alec Burks. I would expect to see Rodney McGruder, Isaiah Livers, and James Wiseman back in the starting lineup in a tough matchup with this Cavs team. I’ll have a lot more interest in Wiseman than I would in Livers, he’s just not a very good point-per-minute guy. Both Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes have been in solid form and look like fine mid-range options, but again, I can’t say I love the matchup. I do like getting to Marvin Bagley off of the bench, he has at least 38 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and his minutes should look good with these guys out. Then, Hamidou Diallo should run this second unit with Bagley and is someone we can get to as a tournament option as well. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has looked great over his last few games and now has at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his last five and is a guy I certainly won’t talk you off of here. Blowout is obviously a concern in this one, however. The price tag on Darius Garland always feels like it’s right where it should be, I don’t have an issue with him here either, he’s been in good form. Evan Mobley is averaging 37.4 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pistons this season and make sense here as well, but probably not a guy I would prioritize by any means. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: James Wiseman, Marvin Bagley, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Hamidou Diallo, Marvin Bagley
Atlanta Hawks @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -2.5
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young has been extremely consistent as of late with at least 45 DraftKings points in ten straight games, and makes for a good option here. I can’t say I love the matchup against a slow-paced, good defending, Miami team. I never love Dejounte Murray when Trae is in there but he looked great last night and is going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle. Clint Capela was a guy I had a bunch of last night and looks good again here. That said, his price tag has come up and those minutes are still volatile. Then the group of De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Saddiq Bey eat into each other’s production and are fine GPP darts if you land on them in your builds. From Miami, Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag in a nice matchup with this Hawks backcourt. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last four but was held under 21 DraftKings points in those other two games. Jimmy Butler has been showing a nice ceiling as of late as well. This Hawks team doesn’t play much defense, so he’s going to look solid as well in this one. Bam Adebayo is a fine option, he’s been pretty average as of late and producing under where his price tag is. Guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will continue to fill the void left by Kyle Lowry who has already been ruled out in this one. Then Kevin Love was fine last time out but I would imagine he continues to start for them, I just wish he was a little cheaper.
5-star play: Trae Young, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Saddiq Bey, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Kevin Love
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Houston Rockets @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Hou -1.0
The toilet bowl! We’ll start with the Rockets, Jalen Green got his minutes up to 29 last time out, so I would imagine he’s a full go moving forward. I love the matchup with this Spurs team, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats. Kevin Porter Jr. returned last time out and played 26 minutes after missing about two months, I would expect he’s around 30 minutes again in this one and is a guy I don’t mind as a secondary option or in tournaments. Alperen Sengun isn’t a guy that I’m all that thrilled with rostering here either, Green and Porter Jr. being back will soak into his usage and opportunity. That said, the matchup is elite, he’s averaging 34.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Spurs this season. Then guys like Jabari Smith and KJ Martin make sense as guys to round out the team, they’ll likely stick around in the starting lineup. We can add Tari Eason to that group as well, they’ve shown more of a willingness to give him more playing time and he’s produced nicely. From the Spurs, they’ll be without Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell while Malaki Branham comes in as questionable. I would imagine Branham plays, he was questionable last game as well but played in that one. Tre Jones returned last time out but was limited to 20 minutes, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock, but if he’s off of that minute restriction he’d look like a nice option. He has a 24.8% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute with Johnson and Vassell off of the court this season. Zach Collins kept it rolling last time out as well and makes sense in all formats, since Poeltl was traded, he’s averaging 33.99 FanDuel points per game. Jeremy Sochan was a popular option last time out and he ended up smashing, he’s going to look like a great option yet again in this one… he shot the ball 26 (!) times last time out. Lastly, Charles Bassey was a popular value option, he’s going to be the immediate backup to Collins and has been good on a per-minute basis this season, I don’t have any issue going back to him but hopefully, we get better value that opens up on this slate.
5-star play: Jalen Green, Tre Jones (if a full go), Jeremy Sochan
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, Zach Collins, Malaki Branham
Deeper Value: Charles Bassey
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Porter Jr., Jabari Smith, Devonte’ Graham, Charles Bassey, Keita Bates-Diop
Philadelphia 76ers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid returned last time out and was fine, but played big minutes which is good to see. Embiid and Giannis have had some big games against each other in the past and is going to be a fun one tonight. He’s averaging 59.3 FanDuel points per game in two games against the Bucks since last season. James Harden has been in great form and has been extremely consistent, he dropped 60 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are GPP guys who will need to fight for usage with Embiid and Harden as the main pieces in the offense. Maxey’s minutes are trending in the right direction which is good to see at the very least. Lastly, as gross as it sounds, PJ Tucker is in play as a value option in a revenge game against the team he won a championship with. From the Bucks, as I mentioned with Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo has also had some massive games against Philly in his career. He’s averaging 60.26 FanDuel points per game in eight games against the Sixers since 2021 and will look like an elite option yet again here. The big thing with Giannis is the minutes, he hasn’t played more than 30 minutes since before the All-Star break due to blowouts, this game should stay close so I think we get around 35 minutes from him. Jrue Holiday has been good as of late but feels like he’s just a bit overpriced with this team healthy, he’d be more of a secondary option on a short slate. I’m still not going to pay this price tag for Bobby Portis either, the minutes aren’t there to support that tag. Brook Lopez will have his hands full with Embiid down low, but he’s handled him just fine already this season, he’s going to look like a nice secondary option. Khris Middleton will likely continue to be capped at 25 minutes, but he’s playing extremely well, I think he’s playable even with that restriction. Then guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder are all dart throws in tournaments to round out this team.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Brook Lopez, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: De’Anthony Melton, PJ Tucker, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Jae Crowder
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -5.0
Starting with the Wolves, Rudy Gobert is going to continue to be a guy I like going forward, he bounced back in a big way last night against the Lake Show. We’ve seen him benefit with Conley in there already with at least 38.5 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards has been a bit more volatile as of late but I love the matchup in this one, he’s going to look like a solid option in all formats. He’s averaging 60 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Kings this season. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as GPP options at the forward position. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been great as of late but is averaging just 41.9 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Wolves this season. I like the price tag a good amount as well. De’Aaron Fox has been in similarly great form if not, even better form than Sabonis. I love going right back to the well with him in this one. Then we get to the mid-range of this team which is very bunched together with guys like Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray. I have no issue with any of these guys if you happened to land on them, but Murray and Barnes make plenty of sense in cash games.
5-star play: Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Malik Monk
NBA Lock of the Day: Jeremy Sochan (DK – $5.4k; FD – $6.1k)
Let’s go right back to the well with Jeremy Sochan in this one. He was looking to score early and often last time out and would think he does the same tonight with Keldon Johnson and Devin Vassell out. With these guys (and Jakob Poeltl) off of the court this season, he has a 22.0% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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