Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/1:
Feb 28, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Los Angeles Lakers forward Jarred Vanderbilt (2) and forward Anthony Davis (3) react with guard Dennis Schroder (17) during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Phoenix Suns @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -10.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Suns, they’re expecting their new shiny toy to make his debut here with Kevin Durant expected back. He’s been out for almost two months with that knee issue, so I imagine he’s pretty heavily restricted and not a guy we can confidently go to on this slate. He may play enough of a role to take usage and opportunity away from guys like Devin Booker and Chris Paul, however. That said, I’m still much more likely to get to those guys here over Durant in his first game. Deandre Ayton has been in relatively good form and gets an elite matchup with this Hornets frontcourt which will look like a great option in all formats. Then, Josh Okogie has been sneaky good for them since shipping Bridges and Johnson out of town, but Durant will more than likely eat into his playing time. Overall, I think this team is more of a stay-away than anything, secondary options at best in a great matchup. From the Hornets, they lost LaMelo Ball for the season last time out due to that fractured ankle, so they’ll be without him, obviously. I would expect to see Dennis Smith Jr. take over as the starting point guard and is going to look like a nice mid-range option in all formats. Below is how this team operates with Ball and PJ Washington (listed doubtful) off of the court this season:
- Terry Rozier – 32.8% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Dennis Smith Jr. – 20.5% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Gordon Hayward – 26.1% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- JT Thor – 12.9% usage rate; 0.58 fpm
- Mark Williams – 21.5% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
- Kelly Oubre – 30.4% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
I do think Kelly Oubre is interesting even off of the bench, he saw 28 minutes last time out and will help fill in the playmaking void in the offense. Outside of him, the rest of this starting lineup will see a boost, but I’m not touching JT Thor, he’s just out there running wind sprints.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Devin Booker, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, Dennis Smith Jr., Gordon Hayward, Mark Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Durant, Kelly Oubre, Nick Richards
Chicago Bulls @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -5.5
Starting with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan had a pretty terrible night against Toronto last night but gets a nice bounce-back spot here against a tanking Pistons team. Generally at least one of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Zach LaVine will have a big game and generally one will have a bad game, but good luck determining which that will be. I’ve been getting the most exposure to the cheapest of the three and I think that’s the best way to attack it. Last night the Raptors were able to shut down pretty much the whole offense, I don’t think the Pistons will have as much luck. The rest of this team isn’t anything I think we need to prioritize, but guys like Patrick Williams or Alex Caruso make sense as last pieces in although I think we can do better on a big slate. From the Pistons, they’ll still be without Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren but should get Jaden Ivey and Bojan Bogdanovic back in this one. I would anticipate we see James Wiseman and Rodney McGruder stick in the starting lineup for Stewart and Duren. Wiseman was a core play for me and most, if not all, of our VIP coaches last time out and is going to look great again here assuming he starts. Both Bogdanovic and Ivey are going to look like nice options as well, both guys have at least a 26% usage rate and over a fantasy point per minute with these main Pistons off of the court this season. I do still think we can go back to Killian Hayes, he’ll stay in the starting lineup as well and should see a boost in his rates, but man he’s hard to watch shoot the ball. Lastly, Marvin Bagley has been great over his last two games and should see a boost here as well, I like him much more than McGruder but coming off of the bench makes his minutes much more volatile.
5-star play: Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, James Wiseman, Killian Hayes
Deeper Value: Alex Caruso, Rodney McGruder
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Marvin Bagley, Rodney McGruder
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.5
Starting with the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell bounced back in a big way against the Raptors last time out after a couple of down games. He now has at least 53 DraftKings points in three of his last five and is a guy I certainly won’t talk you off of here, but the matchup is tougher against the Celtics. The price tag on Darius Garland always feels like it’s right where it should be, I don’t have an issue with him here either, he’s been in good form. Evan Mobley is averaging 34.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Celtics this season and make sense here as well, but probably not a guy I would prioritize by any means. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more. From the Celtics, they should get Jaylen Brown back here and look to be at almost full health. Jayson Tatum wasn’t able to take advantage of Brown being out last game but just had a bad day shooting the ball. I can’t say I love this as a bounce-back spot either. He’s probably more of a secondary spend-up option on a big slate. Brown missed their last game due to personal reasons, so I would imagine he’s a full go here and makes sense as a GPP option as well. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. I don’t love the matchup for any of them, but Smart has the most locked-in minutes, so if I had to choose between them, he would probably be the guy I look toward. Lastly, Robert Williams is a solid secondary center option if you see yourself landing in the mid-range.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Al Horford, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White
Philadelphia 76ers @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 215.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.0
We saw this matchup the last time these two teams took the court, so we should have a bit of a sample size to go off of. Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid came down to Earth a bit last time out but still has at least 60 DraftKings points in three of his last four, but I don’t love the matchup. He’s in a similar group to Tatum, he’s a great option, but the matchup may be the tie-breaker between him and another spend-up option. James Harden has been in great form and has been extremely consistent, he’s a nice option in all formats at a great price tag. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are GPP guys who will need to fight for usage with Embiid and Harden as the main pieces in the offense. Maxey’s minutes are trending in the right direction which is good to see at the very least. Lastly, as gross as it sounds, PJ Tucker is in play as a value option. From the Heat, Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag in a tougher matchup. Jimmy Butler, on the other hand, went bananas last time out and is going to look like a strong option again here. Bam Adebayo will have his hands full with Embiid down low and we saw him struggle last time out in this matchup, he’d be more in that Herro boat than anything for me. Then guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will continue to fill the void left by Kyle Lowry who has already been ruled out in this one. Then Kevin Love was fine last time out but I would imagine he continues to start for them, I just wish he was a little cheaper.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Jimmy Butler
4-star play: James Harden, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Kevin Love
Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -7.5
Starting with the Nets, Ben Simmons will be out in this one, but he’s essentially their third-string center right now, so I don’t think it entirely matters. Spencer Dinwiddie looked great last night against the Bucks and is going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle. He’s going to look like a nice mid-range point guard option in this one. Mikal Bridges is in the same boat and is a guy I’m buying stock in going forward, I think he’s going to have a big finish to the season. He has at least 44 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which makes him more of a tournament option than anything, his production becomes much more volatile. Nicolas Claxton has looked much better over his last couple of games which goes hand in hand with the 30+ minutes he saw in both of them, he’ll look great at this price tag and hopefully the minutes stay consistent. Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith have been fine since making their Nets’ debut but not guys I think we need to prioritize by any means. From the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson has quickly returned to his normal role and is a guy I think makes sense in all formats. Josh Hart is a hard guy for me to trust with the minutes he’s getting, he was a lot easier to like when he was playing minutes in the mid-30s and not mid-20s. Julius Randle is interesting at this price tag, he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and the matchup doesn’t scare me. Jalen Brunson had a down game relative to his price tag, it seems Randle and Brunson aren’t guys that can have big games on the same night, I’ve been avoiding using them in the same lineup if possible. Then, RJ Barrett has been pretty volatile as of late making him a tournament option.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Nicolas Claxton, Cameron Johnson, Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson, Jalen Brunson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dorian Finney-Smith, RJ Barrett, Josh Hart
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Los Angeles Lakers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -1.0
Starting with the Lakers, it sounds like they’ll be without LeBron James for the next few weeks at the very least while D’Angelo Russell is doubtful for this game as well. I would expect to see Dennis Schroder back in the starting lineup for Russell while LeBron’s spot is up for grabs between guys like Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, and Lonnie Walker. Below is how this team operates with LeBron (and Westbrook) off of the court this season:
- Dennis Schroder – 25.4% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Malik Beasley – 21.5% usage rate; 0.96 fpm (small sample)
- Troy Brown – 14.4% usage rate; 0.61 fpm
- Jarred Vanderbilt – 14.1% usage rate; 1.13 fpm (small sample)
- Anthony Davis – 32.2% usage rate; 1.58 fpm
Davis is the guy who stands out in this one while you can make a case for guys like Schroder, Beasley, and Vanderbilt… but Davis is the only real priority. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander entered health and safety protocols yesterday and we haven’t heard an update on his status, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status. Josh Giddey and Lu Dort were guys I landed on quite a bit last night and they both burned me big time. This Thunder team is so frustrating, they ran nine guys at least 20 minutes while two of them (Giddey and Jaylin Williams) didn’t crack that number. They’re going to be incredibly hard for me to trust here, but the matchup is good and there should be open usage and opportunity to go around. If we assume they run a normal NBA rotation, my favorite pieces would be Giddey, Dort, and the Williams’ guys.
5-star play: Anthony Davis
4-star play: Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Troy Brown, the whole Thunder team apparently
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -8.5
Starting with the Magic, Jalen Suggs is hard for me to trust especially with Cole Anthony back and in the rotation. He’s too volatile for cash games but makes plenty of sense in tournaments, the same can probably be said for Anthony. Markelle Fultz has been extremely consistent over their last handful of games and is a nice option at this price tag in a nice matchup. Paolo Banchero is a fine option, but he’s been volatile relative to his current price tag, he did finally bounce back with a big game last time out. Franz Wagner is rarely ever a guy I love and want to prioritize but he makes sense at the very least in this one. Then Wendell Carter Jr. hasn’t exactly been a model of consistency either, he’s more of a tournament option in a tough matchup with this Bucks interior. Speaking of the Bucks, it wouldn’t shock me if we saw them rest a few guys on the back end of a back-to-back, but that’s just reckless speculation, for the sake of this article we’ll operate under the assumption that they’re good to go. Giannis Antetokounmpo returned last night and looked great in just 28 minutes of action. He scored 64.25 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and will look like a top raw option on this slate. Jrue Holiday has been in great form but will take a bit of a hit with Giannis back in there and his price tag is up. I keep saying it, but at some point, Khris Middleton is going to re-enter the starting lineup, but he’s seen a pretty firm 25-minute restriction since coming back from injury, although he’s looked great when he’s out there with at least 32 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Brook Lopez has been unreal as of late with at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four, he’ll likely take a hit with Giannis back in there but he always has the ability to get hot from behind the arch. With this team back to almost full strength, I don’t think we need to get to guys like Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder at their respective price tags.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Markelle Fultz, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Suggs, Cole Anthony, Wendell Carter Jr., Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen
Memphis Grizzlies @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -10.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant had a massive bounce-back game against the Lakers last night and gets an elite matchup again tonight against a tanking Rockets team. His price tag is really nice as well, he’s going to look like a great option in all formats. Jaren Jackson has provided us with the full Jaren Jackson experience as of late, showing off his floor/ceiling this week. He’ll have a great matchup in this one and makes sense in all formats as well. We know Desmond Bane is going to continue his consistency and looks like a nice option in all formats as well. Brandon Clarke returned to the bench last time out, so probably not a guy I’ll get too much of at this price tag. Xavier Tillman has been pretty good as of late and makes sense as a mid-range center option in a great matchup. Then Dillon Brooks is a fine GPP option to round out the team but I imagine we can find better options on a nice-sized slate. From the Rockets, Jalen Green returned last night but played just 19 minutes, part of this may have been due to a blowout against the Nuggets, however. That said, this game certainly has some blowout potential as well, but I would imagine he’s a full go. It sounds like Kevin Porter Jr. will return here as well, he’s been out for about a month and a half so I would think he’s somewhat limited and is a guy I’ll use this as a wait-and-see game. I would expect Jae’Sean Tate moves back to the bench with Porter Jr. back in there and loses a bit of his shine. Alperen Sengun isn’t a guy that I’m all that thrilled with rostering here either, Green and Porter Jr. being back will soak into his usage and opportunity. Then guys like Jabari Smith and KJ Martin make sense as guys to round out the team, they’ll likely stick around in the starting lineup.
5-star play: Ja Morant
4-star play: Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Brandon Clarke, Kevin Porter Jr., Jabari Smith, KJ Martin
New Orleans Pelicans @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Por -1.5
Starting with the Pelicans, CJ McCollum is a fine option, the matchup is great and he gets a revenge game against his old squad, I wouldn’t have an issue using him as a filler piece in this one. Brandon Ingram is probably my preferred option on this team, he leads the team with a 32.8% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute on the season with Zion off of the court. Jonas Valanciunas was a guy I was overweight on last time out on a short slate… that didn’t work in my favor. He comes in questionable here, but if he plays I have no issue going back to the well with Larry Nance out again in this one. Then guys like Trey Murphy, Josh Richardson, and Herb Jones are fine flyer options on the wing, but not guys we need to prioritize by any means. From the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic. Jerami Grant bounced back nicely last night on a bad night shooting which was good to see, he’s in line for a big night if those shots start to fall. Damian Lillard came down to Earth last night after his massive game against the Rockets, he also has a 40.8% usage rate and 1.76 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Drew Eubanks, CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, Josh Richardson, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones
NBA Lock of the Day: Jaden Ivey (DK – $5.6k; FD – $6.0k)
I gotta say, there isn’t a ton that stands out to me at first look in terms of a lock of the day, so be sure to check out our cheat sheets for more as we get closer to lock, but I think we have something with Jaden Ivey. The Pistons will be without Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren again in this one and Ivey has a 26.7% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute with these guys (plus Bey and Cunningham) off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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