Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/15:
Mar 13, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Minnesota Timberwolves guard Anthony Edwards (1) reacts with guard Mike Conley (10) after making a three point shot and going over thirty points against the Atlanta Hawks during the second half at State Farm Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Memphis Grizzlies @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -4.0
We’ll kick this slate off with the Grizzlies, they’ll continue to be without Ja Morant for the next few games while Brandon Clarke will miss the rest of the season. Tyus Jones will stay in the starting lineup until Morant is back. Below is how this team operates with Morant off of the court this season:
- Tyus Jones – 19.5% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Desmond Bane – 28.2% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Dillon Brooks – 26.6% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – 28.1% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
- Xavier Tillman – 15.4% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
This is a tough matchup which makes this team look less appealing than usual along with their prices being adjusted to the Morant/Clarke news by now. I’d consider most of this team to be secondary options in a bad matchup. From the Heat, Kyle Lowry saw his minutes fall in a pretty big way last time out against the Jazz, those minutes will likely be volatile as they try and save his legs for the playoffs. I’ll keep him as a GPP value option if nothing else on the slate opens up. Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag, but he did drop a 50-burger on this Memphis defense earlier this season. Jimmy Butler has been showing a nice ceiling as of late as well, he has at least 45 FanDuel points in five straight games. Bam Adebayo has been fairly volatile as of late and I don’t love the price tag, he’d be more of a secondary option for me on this slate. Then, Kevin Love should continue to start and makes sense as a flyer at this price tag, although I think we can find better options in that price range.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Xavier Tillman, Kyle Lowry, Kevin Love
Philadelphia 76ers @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid has been in elite form with at least 56 DraftKings points in five straight games and is averaging 50.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Cavs this season. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. James Harden has been one of the more consistent fantasy producers over the last couple of months and will look like a nice option in a tough matchup here. The price tag on Tyrese Maxey is too high for me to want to get exposure to in this matchup, but the minutes should be there at the very least. Then Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton are fine roster fillers in GPPs if you land on them. From the Cavs, we don’t have an injury report on them yet but this spread feels off, these two teams are separated by three games in the standings and are the three and four seeds in the Eastern Conference right now with the Cavs at home. It feels like one of Donovan Mitchell or Jarrett Allen will end up sitting again, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re both back after sitting on the front end of their back-to-back last night. Mitchell has averaged 46 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Sixers this season and would look like a nice option yet again. Darius Garland was bitten by the blowout bug yesterday but would look like a nice option at a decreasing price tag again in this one. If Allen plays, he’ll have his hands full with Embiid down low but would look like a fine mid-range center option. We can jump off of the Caris LeVert train if Mitchell is back as he would likely move back to a bench role after a big game last night. Then, Evan Mobley has been in good form but has seen his price tag come up which makes him more of a secondary option assuming health on the Cavs, but again, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed throughout the day for news on this team.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Sacramento Kings @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: PK
We’ll start with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis had a massive game last time out against the Bucks and is going to look like a nice option again in this one. This game should be fast-paced and competitive which sets up for fantasy success for a guy like Sabonis. De’Aaron Fox also had a big game last time out but has shown some more volatility as of late, I have no issue going to him as a secondary option on this slate. Kevin Huerter was hitting threes left and right last time out and has that type of ability on any given night, as long as the minutes are there he generally produces and looks like a nice option again in this one. Then guys like Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Malik Monk make sense as secondary GPP options in all formats as well. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine had a massive game in this matchup earlier this season but the price tag is probably right about where it should be. He’s been in good form as of late and makes sense in a fast-paced matchup. DeMar DeRozan has been a bit more volatile but again, the matchup is elite and he’s playing all the minutes he can handle right now. Then the last of the “big three”, Nikola Vucevic, makes sense as a secondary option but center is oftentimes a big opportunity cost position, so not a guy I feel the need to prioritize. Guys like Patrick Williams and Patrick Beverley are GPP roster fillers to round out this team.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, Patrick Williams, Patrick Beverley
Boston Celtics @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.0
Starting with the Celtics, Jaylen Brown bounced back in a big way last time out in a game that many thought would be a blowout. I have no issue going right back to him in this one, he clearly has a great ceiling and has been fairly consistent. Jayson Tatum has been incredible as of late and will look like one of the better spend-up options on the slate in this one. He has at least 66 DraftKings points in two of his last four. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. Smart has not been in great form and probably shouldn’t be closing games for them over White right now, but I’m not the coach of the Celtics! Then, Robert Williams will miss this game again, we saw Al Horford move back to the starting center, and will look like a solid mid-range option in this one. From the Wolves, Rudy Gobert is going to continue to be a guy I like going forward, he’s been extremely good since the Conley trade. Boston isn’t a great rebounding team and the price tag came down a little bit. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there, he has at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Anthony Edwards was a guy I had a bunch of last time out and has been great over his last few even with shooting a combined 5-19 from three-point range over his last two games. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as secondary options at the forward position, Anderson had another massive game last time out.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Al Horford, Jaden McDaniels
Los Angeles Lakers @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -3.5
Starting with the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis in this one along with LeBron James for one more game. I would think Rui Hachimura starts in Davis’s place in a great matchup. The sample size on most of these guys is too small since the trade deadline so we can’t dig too heavily into the rates on these guys, but Hachimura has a 20.3% usage rate and 0.76 fantasy points per minute with Davis and LeBron off of the court this season. D’Angelo Russell will likely be the primary option for the Lakers and looks like a great option here against a tanking Rockets team. Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt will look like nice options as well, the matchup is elite, and should play big minutes. It’s been the Austin Reaves show in the second unit as of late and would be a guy that makes sense here as well with Davis out. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. had a nice bounce-back game last time out in a tougher matchup with the Celtics. This is going to look like a nice spot with the Lakers rolling out their B-team as well. Jalen Green is in a similar boat and has been playing all the minutes he can handle as of late. Alperen Sengun ended up missing their last game and comes into this one as questionable, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. He’s going to look like a great option with the frontcourt opening up now that Davis is out. Tari Eason’s price tag has finally started to come up to a spot where I don’t feel the need to force him in every night, he’s probably more of a tournament option in this one. Then guys like KJ Martin and Jabari Smith are solid secondary options, Smith has been great over their last few games.
5-star play: D’Angelo Russell
4-star play: Rui Hachimura, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Austin Reaves, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jabari Smith
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Austin Reaves, KJ Martin, Tari Eason
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Dallas Mavericks @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -5.5
Starting with the Mavericks, they’ll be without Luka Doncic again in this one while Kyrie Irving comes in as questionable. He’s going to look like an elite option if he’s able to go, he has a 27.4% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with Luka off of the court this season. If Kyrie were to sit as well then we fire up the Jaden Hardy train yet again as he’s started their last two games and has at least 31 DraftKings points in each of them… and the matchup sets up beautifully. Christian Wood is going to be a no from me regardless of who plays, Jason Kidd hates him for whatever reason, probably because they have too many other frontcourt options (not!). Josh Green had a big game last time out and would be a nice option again in a great matchup here, he re-inserted himself back into the starting lineup. Tim Hardaway left the game early last time out and comes into this one as questionable, if he plays they’ll need his offense, and is a nice option in all formats. From the Spurs, we don’t have an injury report for them yet but we know Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones will likely come in as questionable while the rest of the main pieces SHOULD be good to go. Devin Vassell continues to see good minutes and bounced back last time out but his price tag continues to climb. Zach Collins has been great since taking over as the starting center and has at least 44 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Jeremy Sochan had a massive game last night and makes sense in all formats again in this one. If Devonte’ Graham starts again we can go right back to the well, but if Johnson and/or Tre Jones returns he may go back to the bench, so watch out for that news.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Zach Collins
4-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden Hardy, Reggie Bullock, Maxi Kleber, Keita Bates-Diop, Devonte’ Graham
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -2.0
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry came down to Earth last time out but we know the ceiling he has on any given night depending on if he gets hot from three-point land. The matchup is nice and is a guy that makes sense as a GPP spend-up tonight. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson have seen their price tags come down to a more playable range with Curry back in there. I would prefer getting to Klay over Poole still even with the pricing difference, but Klay has just been in better form. Draymond Green is a fine option, but never a guy I feel the need to prioritize. Donte DiVincenzo should remain in the starting lineup until Andrew Wiggins returns and is in solid enough form, he helps roster construction with that SG/SF eligibility. Finally, Kevon Looney has at least 33 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and looks like a nice mid-range option here as well. From the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George look like similar options given their price tags and production. Kawhi is probably the safer option for cash games while George has an immense ceiling, but both are playing massive minutes. Russell Westbrook has seen his minutes trend in the wrong direction and has been at the 23-minute mark over his last couple of games, he’s more of an MME play for me tonight. Ivica Zubac and Mason Plumlee will continue to split minutes at the center position, the Warriors like to go small and the Clippers would have no issue matching them, so I’m probably off of these guys tonight. With that said, maybe we see more minutes for guys like Marcus Morris and Nic Batum as small-ball center options.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Paul George
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Kevon Looney, Donte DiVincenzo, Russell Westbrook, Marcus Morris, Nic Batum
NBA Lock of the Day: D’Angelo Russell (DK – $7.7k; FD – $8.2k)
The price tag is a little higher than I’d like it to be but hopefully, that keeps the ownership lower on him. The Lakers will be without both LeBron James and Anthony Davis tonight in an elite matchup with a tanking Rockets team. Russell will run the offense and be the first scoring option against a bad defense and is someone I want a lot of tonight. He’s been in good form with at least 35 DraftKings/36 FanDuel in three straight games and gets a major boost in this one. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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