Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/14:
Mar 13, 2023; Sacramento, California, USA; Sacramento Kings center Trey Lyles (41) confronts Milwaukee Bucks center Brook Lopez (11) during the fourth quarter at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -7.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Cavs, they’ll be without Jarrett Allen in this one, so I would expect to see Evan Mobley move to the five while they start someone like Lamar Stevens at the four. I don’t think Stevens is a guy we need to dig too deep into in this one, he’s not a great per-minute producer. Below is how this team operates with Allen off of the court this season:
- Darius Garland – 28.3% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Donovan Mitchell – 31.9% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Isaac Okoro – 11.6% usage rate; 0.56 fpm
- Lamar Stevens – 14.5% usage rate; 0.70 fpm
- Evan Mobley – 22.4% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
We could see some more minutes for Cedi Osman as well on the wing but I would hope we find some better value than him on this slate. The price tag on Mitchell is way up but the matchup is great against this Hornets team. I would probably rather take the savings with Garland who has been in great form as well. Lastly, Mobley should do whatever he wants against this Hornets frontcourt, and makes sense in all formats. Speaking of the Hornets, they’ll also be without their starting big man Mark Williams yet again. Nick Richards started for him last time out and now has at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight games, he’s going to look like a good option even in a tough matchup. Terry Rozier is averaging 45.9 DraftKings points in two games against the Cavs this season and will look like a solid option in all formats. Kelly Oubre will continue to play all the minutes he can handle and makes sense at this price tag, although it’s probably caught up with him at this point. Then guys like PJ Washington and Gordon Hayward make plenty of sense as secondary options as well, but again, I don’t love the matchup.
5-star play: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Nick Richards
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Terry Rozier, Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kelly Oubre, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward
Detroit Pistons @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Was -12.5
Starting with the Pistons, we’re still waiting on an injury report for them, but I’ll operate under the assumption that we’re missing the same guys from last night, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on these guys. Jaden Ivey, Marvin Bagley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, and Alec Burks all missed yesterday. They ended up starting Eugene Omoruyi at the PF spot and played great, he’s going to be a great value option assuming he gets the start again in this one, DraftKings didn’t have time to adjust his price tag and he’s not in the FanDuel player pool for whatever reason. Kilian Hayes was on his way to a massive game after a huge first quarter before he banged knees in the third quarter which knocked him off the rails. He should be good to go here and is going to look like a great option yet again with all these guys out for the Pistons. He’s looking to score more with Ivey off of the court as well, he’s not a great shooter, but quantity over quality in DFS! I’m never in love with playing guys like Isaiah Livers and Cory Joseph, but they’re going to play good minutes with all these guys already ruled out. Then guys like Rodney McGruder and RJ Hampton are fine value options, but I’m not going to force those guys. From the Wizards, Monte Morris will stick around in the starting lineup over Delon Wright and would be my much-preferred option at a cheaper price tag. Kristaps Porzingis hasn’t been good over their last two games but lost minutes due to a blowout against Philly. This is a great bounce-back spot and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Bradley Beal came down to Earth in that blowout as well but has at least 46 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. Kyle Kuzma is probably more of a tournament guy but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and we know the ceiling is there, he does come in as questionable, so keep an eye on his status as we get closer to lock. Daniel Gafford isn’t a guy I like any time Kuzma and Kristaps are good to go.
5-star play: Killian Hayes, Eugene Omoruyi (DraftKings)
4-star play: Isaiah Livers, Kristaps Porzingis, Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Monte Morris
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cory Joseph, Rodney McGruder, RJ Hampton, Daniel Gafford
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Denver Nuggets @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -1.0
We’ll start with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has been incredible over his last two games with at least 77 DraftKings points, he’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. Jamal Murray comes into this one as questionable with a knee injury, but sounds like it’s more of a management thing than anything, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. We would see more Reggie Jackson if he does get ruled out, however. Murray will look like a solid option in this one even after a down game last time out against the Nets. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. feel like similar options due to their volatility, but the upside is certainly there for both of them. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is never a guy I get a ton of, but he’s playing all the minutes he can handle right now and you could do worse as a roster filler. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam continues to be a disappointment at this price tag but has played at least 37 minutes in five straight games, he’s certainly not my favorite option, but he’s a fine tournament option. Fred VanVleet has come down to Earth over his last couple of games as well but nearly dropped a 50-burger against this Nuggets team last week. Scottie Barnes has been trending in the right direction and is shooting much more over his last few games, I like going right back to the well on him in this one and as we’ve come to know in this Nick Nurse offense, he’s going to play a ton. They’ll need Jakob Poeltl’s size again for Jokic down low, so I would expect the minutes to be there if he can stay out of foul trouble, he’s a nice tournament option in this one. Then guys like OG Anunoby and Gary Trent make sense as secondary options, although my preference would be Anunoby who had a nice bounce-back game last time out.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr.
Brooklyn Nets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -1.5
Starting with the Nets, I’m going to continue to go back to Mikal Bridges in a great matchup. He’s been great since coming over from the Suns and has a 27.8% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute as he takes on more of a playmaking role for the Nets. Spencer Dinwiddie is on a heater with at least 49 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and is going to look like a good option again in this one. The minutes for Nicolas Claxton have been more consistent over his last handful of games and gets an elite matchup against this Thunder frontcourt. Cam Johnson hasn’t been as good as he was when he first came over from the Suns and is probably more of a secondary option than anything for me. We can throw guys like Royce O’Neale and Dorian Finney-Smith in that same boat as well as filler pieces to round out the Nets. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a core play for me on DraftKings the last time he took the court and is going to look like an elite option yet again in this one. The price tag is just incorrect whereas FanDuel has him more appropriately priced at $10.5k. He has at least 55 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and I like the matchup a good amount. I don’t exactly want to pay this price tag for Josh Giddey but he’s a fine secondary option. Jalen Williams bounced back nicely last time out and has been in great form over the past few weeks, I have no problem going right back to him in this one. We can jump off of the Isaiah Joe train with these guys back, and maybe forever, that guy is so damn frustrating to roster. Meanwhile, Lu Dort would be a volatile GPP option. Lastly, Jaylin Williams should continue to start at center and be a fine value option if you need one.
5-star play: Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Nicolas Claxton, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Royce O’Neale, Jaylin Williams, Lu Dort
Los Angeles Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -1.0
Starting with the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell has returned and has looked great since re-joining the starting lineup with at least 49 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. He’s going to look like a strong option yet again here as he takes over as the second option in this offense. Anthony Davis has averaged 58.7 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pelicans this season and is going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate yet again in this one. Then we can round this team out with Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley as secondary options to round out lineups. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram comes into this one as questionable after missing their last few games, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. We saw Trey Murphy have a massive game in his absence last time out, he hit nine threes in that game which I wouldn’t expect again, but guys like him, Herbert Jones, and Naji Marshall would look like nice options if Ingram is forced to miss again. CJ McCollum has at least 46 DraftKings points in three straight games and is probably only a guy I’ll get to if Ingram is out. Jonas Valanciunas bounced back nicely last time out but still only played 21 minutes, it’s incredibly hard to trust the minutes on him right now but we know the ceiling is there.
5-star play: Anthony Davis
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Trey Murphy
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Herb Jones, Josh Richardson, Naji Marshall, Jonas Valanciunas
Be sure to check out our PrizePicks tool as well which provides our projection in relation to the PrizePicks line giving us max leverage to hammer home those best prop spots. Our props team has been killing it! CLICK HERE TO CHECK IT OUT.
Orlando Magic @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -6.0
Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero has been solid as of late even in a tough matchup against the Heat last time out. This is a much better matchup against the tanking Spurs, I like going right back to the well with him here in all formats. Markelle Fultz has been as consistent as they come as of late and looks like a nice option in all formats as well. Franz Wagner comes into this one as questionable after bouncing back nicely over his last few games. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock, he’s not a guy I’ll feel the need to prioritize, but no issues using him to fill out a roster. Wendell Carter Jr. returned last time out and played massive minutes against the Heat, I have no problem going back to him in this one either. Then guys like Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs have shown some nice upside and consistency as of late and are in play in all formats. From the Spurs, they’ll be without Tre Jones and Malaki Branham while Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan come in as questionable. We saw Devonte’ Graham start last time out and would likely be the case again in this one and will look like a great option in all formats. Devin Vassell has been a guy I’ve been all over with him getting his full minutes back, but the production hasn’t been there. He’s going to pick up some usage and opportunity with these guys off of the court but his price tag has come up as well making him more of a secondary/tournament option. I like going back to Zach Collins as well, he bounced back nicely last time out and has been great since taking over as the starting five. Then, Keita Bates-Diop would see an increase in minutes if either/both of Keldon Johnson and/or Sochan end up missing, he had a nice game last time out and would make sense as a mid-range option in a nice matchup.
5-star play: Devonte’ Graham
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Markelle Fultz, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Zach Collins, Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Keita Bates-Diop
Milwaukee Bucks @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 232.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -2.0
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo returned last night and looked great against the Kings. This is a more difficult matchup, but I love targeting Giannis anytime the game is competitive because it gives him that ceiling on his minutes as we saw last night, he’ll float around 35 rather than 30. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. I don’t love the price tag on Jrue Holiday but he’s a fine tournament option if you want to get exposure, but it continues to climb. Khris Middleton had a massive night last night and looks to be fully back, I have no issue going to him as a secondary option as well here. Then, Brook Lopez continues to play well as well, I have no issue with him as a GPP option to round out this team even after getting choked out by Trey Lyles at the end of the game last night. I don’t see the need to get to guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder in anything other than MME. From the Suns, they’ll be without Kevin Durant for the next few weeks after slipping on the floor pre-game last time out. Devin Booker should benefit from more usage and production but we ultimately go back to a similar situation we had pre-Durant with him. He had a down game last night but has at least 50 DraftKings points in five straight previous games. Chris Paul will look good as well as he’ll take on more of a scoring role and has looked great over their last few games. Deandre Ayton has been great since Durant went down as well and is going to look like a nice mid-range center option. Then guys like Josh Okogie and Terrence Ross make sense with Durant out and should pick up minutes and shot opportunities.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker
4-star play: Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Josh Okogie, Terrence Ross
New York Knicks @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -2.5
Starting with the Knicks, it sounds like Jalen Brunson is going to be out in this one as he’s on the doubtful side of questionable, so we’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again. Below is how this team operates with Brunson off of the court this season:
- Immanuel Quickley – 23.6% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
- Quentin Grimes – 16.6% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- RJ Barrett – 29.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Julius Randle – 33.1% usage rate; 1.45 fpm
- Mitchell Robinson – 11.4% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Josh Hart – 13.3% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
Quickley will start in Brunson’s place and play all of the minutes he can handle in a great matchup. With Brunson out this season, Quickley is AVERAGING 41.9 minutes per game, he’s going to look like a great option in all formats. Randle and Barrett see nice bumps in their rates as well and will look like great options against a bad Blazers defense. Speaking of the Blazers, Damian Lillard ended up missing their last game and comes into this one as questionable along with Jerami Grant. This is a late game so we likely won’t know his status until after lock, make sure you have your notifications on for the Breaking News Feed, but for the sake of this article we’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. Anfernee Simons disappointed with Dame out last game but is going to look like a solid GPP option regardless of Dame’s status in this one, he’s looking to score early and often. Lillard is going to take a hit now with both Simons and Nurkic back in there, he losses 3.4% usage and 0.14 fantasy points per minute with these guys on the court. Speaking of Jusuf Nurkic, he only played 10 minutes last time out as they tried to match the Pelicans as they went small. I would expect his minutes to come up in this one as the Knicks will run more of a traditional rotation. He’s a fine GPP option, but not a guy I would touch in cash games. Guys like Matisse Thybulle and Cam Reddish will take a hit with Simons in there as well, Reddish has moved back to the bench.
5-star play: Immanuel Quickley, Julius Randle
4-star play: RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson, Damian Lillard, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Quentin Grimes, Josh Hart, Jusuf Nurkic
NBA Lock of the Day: Eugene Omoruyi (DK – $3.8k); Immanuel Quickley (FD – $6.9k)
I had to separate the sites into two different locks today because for whatever reason, FanDuel doesn’t have Eugene Omoruyi in their player pool. I would imagine he starts at PF again tonight for the banged-up/tanking Pistons and put up a nice night last night. DraftKings hasn’t had the chance to adjust his price tag, so I’m going back to the well with him. Then I think Quickley is just too cheap on FanDuel, he’s going to play massive minutes in an elite matchup with Jalen Brunson likely out again. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
