Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/13:
Mar 11, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Isaiah Livers (12) reacts during the second half against the Indiana Pacers t Little Caesars Arena. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -3.0
We’ll kick this slate off with an absolute sh%t show of a game, the Pacers will be without Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Bennedict Mathurin, and TJ McConnell while Buddy Hield comes in as questionable. Hield is the one guy that ended up playing last time out, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. With these same guys out last game the Pacers started the following:
- Andrew Nembhard – 33 minutes; 34.75 DKP/32.6 FDP
- Chris Duarte – 33 minutes; 14.5 DKP/13.2 FDP
- Buddy Hield – 27 minutes; 34.0 DKP/32.6 FDP
- Aaron Nesmith – 21 minutes; 12.75 DKP/12.6 FDP
- Isaiah Jackson – 26 minutes; 43.75 DKP/45.7 FDP
Jalen Smith ended up playing great off of the bench as well and would be a guy I look to go right back to in this one. I did like Jordan Nwora a good amount last game as well, he’s a great option off of the bench as he looks to score early and often. The sides were good with updating price tags at least a little bit on a lot of these guys, but considering the matchup, there’s going to be a lot of value in this one. From the Pistons, they’ll be without Jaden Ivey, Marvin Bagley, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, and Alec Burks. It’ll be interesting to see who they start at PF with Bagley out, I wouldn’t think they want Jalen Duren and James Wiseman starting next to each other, so we could see a guy like Eugene Omoruyi get the start, and would be an interesting value option. Kilian Hayes had a massive game in this spot last time out and is going to look like a great option yet again here. With Ivey out, he’s looking to score much more than he normally would. I’m never in love with playing guys like Isaiah Livers and Cory Joseph, but they’re going to play good minutes with all these guys already ruled out. Then guys like Rodney McGruder and RJ Hampton are fine value options, but I’m not going to force those guys.
5-star play: Andrew Nembhard, Isaiah Jackson, Killian Hayes
4-star play: Chris Duarte, Jalen Smith, Aaron Nesmith, Buddy Hield, Jordan Nwora, Jalen Duren, James Wiseman, Isaiah Livers
Deeper Value: Eugene Omoruyi, RJ Hampton
GPP Sleeper: Eugene Omoruyi, Rodney McGruder, RJ Hampton, Cory Joseph
Utah Jazz @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -7.5
Starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen had a down game last time out and gets a tough matchup with the Heat in this one. He did drop a 50-burger in this matchup earlier this season, so he can obviously do it, but he’s probably more of a GPP option at this price tag than anything for me. Jordan Clarkson comes into this one as questionable after missing their last few games, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. For the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. Clarkson looked good in his last game out against the Thunder and is someone I have no issue going back to in this one, but the price tag has come up. Talen Horton-Tucker had an absolutely massive game against the Hornets on Saturday, but he probably isn’t a guy I’ll be chasing in this matchup especially if Clarkson is back. Kelly Olynyk isn’t a sexy play by any means but is a guy that can get hot from behind the three-point line and rack up ancillary stats as a roster filler. I do like going right back to Walker Kessler, however, he’s been great averaging 38.6 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. From the Heat, Kyle Lowry returned last time out and played 36 minutes which is far more than I was expecting to see in his first game back in over a month. The price tag isn’t terrible and is a guy I don’t mind getting to in GPPs. Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag, but the matchup is nice against this Utah defense. Jimmy Butler has been showing a nice ceiling as of late as well, he has at least 45 FanDuel points in four straight games. Bam Adebayo has been fairly volatile as of late and I don’t love the price tag, he’d be more of a secondary option for me on this slate. Then, Kevin Love should continue to start and makes sense as a flyer at this price tag, although I think we can find better options in that price range.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Kevin Love, Kyle Lowry
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Memphis Grizzlies @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -1.0
We’ll start with the Grizzlies, they’ll continue to be without Ja Morant for the next few games while Brandon Clarke will miss the rest of the season. I would expect Tyus Jones stays in the starting lineup until Morant is back. Below is how this team operates with Morant off of the court this season:
- Tyus Jones – 19.5% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Desmond Bane – 28.2% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
- Dillon Brooks – 26.6% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – 28.2% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
- Xavier Tillman – 15.7% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
Jones is finally priced right where he should be on both sites but is averaging 41.1 DraftKings/40.1 FanDuel points per game in 13 games without Ja this season. We should see more minutes out of Santi Aldama off of the bench as well with Clarke out. From the Mavs, they’ll be without Luka Doncic again in this one while Kyrie Irving comes in as questionable. He’s going to look like an elite option if he’s able to go, he has a 27.4% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with Luka off of the court this season. If Kyrie were to sit as well then we fire up the Jaden Hardy train yet again as he started last time out with both of these guys inactive! Christian Wood was popular last time out and may also be again in this one, I’ll likely be lower on him with Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber expected back. Tim Hardaway will see a boost with Luka out as well and he’s been in good form over his last few games. Then that group of wings will be fine options, guys like Bullock, Kleber, and Josh Green, but they’re not exactly the sexiest options.
5-star play: Desmond Bane, Kyrie Irving
4-star play: Jaren Jackson, Tyus Jones, Xavier Tillman, Dillon Brooks, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Santi Aldama, Dillon Brooks, Christian Wood, Maxi Kleber, Josh Green
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Minnesota Timberwolves @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 244.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -5.0
Starting with the Wolves, Rudy Gobert is going to continue to be a guy I like going forward, he had a massive game last time out against the Nets but did get a decent price boost. Mike Conley has helped his production immensely since coming over in the D’Angelo Russell trade. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards has been a bit more volatile as of late but had a nice game last time out and I love the matchup against this Hawks defense. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as secondary options at the forward position. From the Hawks, Trae Young has looked much better as of late and had a massive game in a tough matchup with the Celtics last time out. He’s going to look like a great option yet again here and feels slightly underpriced. I never love Dejounte Murray when Trae is in there but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. He’d be more of a tournament option than anything for me in this one. Clint Capela is more of a tournament guy due to the volatility in his minutes, if you told me he was guaranteed to play 30+ I’d fire him up, but unfortunately, we don’t have that with him. Then the group of De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Saddiq Bey eat into each other’s production and are fine GPP darts if you land on them in your builds.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards, Trae Young
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaden McDaniels, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Saddiq Bey
Boston Celtics @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -12.0
Starting with the Celtics, Jaylen Brown has come down to Earth a bit over his last couple of games but gets an elite bounce-back matchup here. I do worry a little about a blowout in this game, but I’d much rather be on the guys on the team doing the blowout than visa-versa. Jayson Tatum has been incredible as of late and will look like one of the better spend-up options on the slate in this one. He has at least 66 DraftKings points in three of his last five. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. The matchup will look great against this Rockets backcourt, so they’re all firmly in play here. I’d be lowest on Brodgon, as he’d be the first to lose minutes if there is a blowout, he’d miss out on a second-half rotation in that scenario. Then, Robert Williams will miss this game again, we saw Al Horford move back to the starting center, and will look like a solid mid-range option in this one. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. returned last time out against the Bulls and played 34 minutes, he’s going to look like a solid option at a decreased price tag. Jalen Green is in a similar boat and has been playing all the minutes he can handle as of late. Alperen Sengun hasn’t flashed that massive ceiling lately that we’ve seen from him at points this season but is still a guy I like going back to in this one. Tari Eason’s price tag has finally started to come up to a spot where I don’t feel the need to force him in every night, he’s probably more of a tournament option in this one. Then guys like KJ Martin and Jabari Smith are solid secondary options, Smith has been great over their last few games.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Derrick White, Al Horford, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Tari Eason, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith
Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.5
Starting with the Suns, they’ll be without Kevin Durant for the next few weeks after slipping on the floor pre-game last time out. Devin Booker should benefit from more usage and production but we ultimately go back to a similar situation we had pre-Durant with him. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in five straight games and looks like a great option yet again in this one. Chris Paul will look good as well as he’ll take on more of a scoring role and has looked great over their last few games. Deandre Ayton is averaging just 32.4 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Warriors this season, but I do think he’s a very viable option at this price tag. Then guys like Josh Okogie and Terrence Ross make sense with Durant out and should pick up minutes and shot opportunities. From the Warriors, Steph Curry looked great on Saturday night and will look like a strong option again in this one. It’s a tough matchup, but he has the ability to get hot from behind the three-point arch on any given night. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will take the biggest hit in terms of usage and fantasy production as Curry absorbs more attention in the offense and their price tags don’t reflect that quite yet, so I’ll be underweight on these guys for the time being. Draymond Green is a fine option, but never a guy I feel the need to prioritize. Donte DiVincenzo should remain in the starting lineup until Andrew Wiggins returns and is in good form, he helps roster construction with that SG/SF eligibility. Finally, Kevon Looney had a massive bounce-back game off of the bench last time out and is a fine GPP option, they’ll likely need his size against Ayton down low.
5-star play: Devin Booker, Steph Curry
4-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Donte DiVincenzo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Okogie, Terrence Ross, Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson
Milwaukee Bucks @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 244.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -2.0
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo comes into this one as questionable with that hand injury and has missed their last few games, so that’s big news we’ll need to keep an eye on. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go just due to the close spread, but it feels pretty up in the air. He scored 54.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and would see around 35 minutes in a competitive game, he’ll look like a top spend-up option on this slate. I don’t love the price tag on Jrue Holiday but he’s a fine option, his ceiling is a bit capped with Giannis in there. Khris Middleton should remain in the starting lineup moving forward and is likely off of that minute’s restriction he was fighting for about a month, he’s going to look like a nice option in a fast-paced matchup, but his price tag has definitely come up. Then, Brook Lopez continues to play well as well, I have no issue with him as a GPP option to round out this team, I don’t see the need to get to guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder in anything other than MME. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis came down to Earth last time out but I like the price tag a good amount in a fast-paced game, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats. The price tag on De’Aaron Fox has come down a bit since their last game, I love him in these fast-paced games as well. It’s a tough defensive matchup against Holiday, Giannis, and Lopez, but it’s hard not to like him for GPPs at the very least. Kevin Huerter came down to Earth big time over their last couple of games, he’s more of a GPP guy in this one. Then guys like Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Malik Monk make sense as secondary GPP options in all formats as well.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, De’Aaron Fox
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Grayson Allen, Harrison Barnes, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
NBA Lock of the Day: Isaiah Jackson (DK – $4.6k; FD – $4.6k)
Jackson’s price tag has come up since their last game, but for good reason. The Pacers are going to be extremely shorthanded again tonight and I would expect Jackson to get the start at the five in a great matchup. He’s averaging 31.8 DraftKings/34.5 FanDuel points per game in six games as a starter this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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