Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/11:
Jan 11, 2022; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) reacts after a three-point basket during the second half against the Memphis Grizzles at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Utah Jazz @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -2.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen is going to look like a great option in all formats against a weak Hornets defense. There’s a bit of sticker shock on him, but the production has been there more times than not. Jordan Clarkson comes into this one as questionable after missing their last game, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. For the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. Clarkson looked good in his last game out against the Thunder and is someone I have no issue going back to in this one, but the price tag has come up. I do have some hesitancy with the Talen Horton-Tucker price tag, he’s going to lose some usage and opportunity playing next to Markkanen and Clarkson. The same can be said for Kelly Olynyk who has seen a price increase. I do like going right back to Walker Kessler, however, he’s been great averaging 36.5 DraftKings points per game over his last four games and the Hornets have been demolished by opposing big men. Speaking of the Hornets and their frontcourt, Mark Williams left early in their last game with a thumb sprain which led to Nick Richards starting the second half. Richards would likely start if Williams is forced to miss again in this one and would look like a great value option. He has a 16.0% usage rate and 1.00 fantasy points per minute with Williams and Plumlee off of the court this season. Terry Rozier had a massive game last time out even with shooting 1-7 from three-point range. I have no issue going right back to him in a great matchup with this Jazz defense. Kelly Oubre is going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle with LaMelo out, he’s a guy I like going back to in this one as well. Gordon Hayward came down to Earth last time out after a massive game against the Knicks, he’s a strong option in all formats as well. I would probably prefer PJ Washington in a similar price range, however, he sees a nice boost with Williams and Plumlee off of the court.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Terry Rozier
4-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, Mark Williams, Kelly Oubre, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Talen Horton-Tucker, Kelly Olynyk, Nick Richards, Gordon Hayward
Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Heat, Kyle Lowry is expected back in this one, but I wouldn’t expect him to play a whole lot of minutes, he may actually come off of the bench for a few games somewhat similar to what the Bucks did with Khris Middleton. He’s not a guy I want to get any exposure to in his first game back. Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag, but the matchup is nice against this Orlando defense. Jimmy Butler has been showing a nice ceiling as of late as well, he has at least 45 FanDuel points in four of his last five. Bam Adebayo bounced back nicely in a tough matchup last night and gets a nice matchup here, I like the price tag on him quite a bit. Guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will take a hit even if Lowry is limited, and on a big slate, I think we can do better than playing these guys. I ended up with a bunch of Kevin Love last night due to the other value we had on the slate, I would think we can do better on this slate as well, but we know the ceiling is always there for him. From the Magic, it sounds like Wendell Carter Jr. will return here, but in a tough matchup, he’ll be a GPP guy for me. Gary Harris returned last time out which sent Jalen Suggs back to the bench but was still able to put up a nice game in 30 minutes. I like to lump him in the same group as Cole Anthony who are guys that can come off of the bench and play 30-ish minutes at a nice price tag for tournaments. Markelle Fultz has been extremely consistent over their last handful of games and is a nice option at this price tag even in a tough matchup. Paolo Banchero has at least 38 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and will look like a fine GPP option. Franz Wagner is rarely ever a guy I love and want to prioritize but he makes sense at the very least in this one to round out the team.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Markelle Fultz, Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Wendell Carter Jr.
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Ind -6.0
We’ll start with the Pacers, and we’ll need some news on them in this one as Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, and TJ McConnell all come in as questionable while Bennedict Mathurin will miss their next few games. I’m going to operate under the assumption that they’re good to go here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. Tyrese Haliburton is on a heater right now and is now averaging 60.9 DraftKings points over his last four games. This matchup sets up beautifully as well against a tanking Pistons team, he’s going to look like an elite option yet again. Myles Turner bounced back nicely last time out and is a guy I wouldn’t have a problem going right back to in this one. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him and he’s coming off of a nice game last time out. Jordan Nwora had a nice game last time out and should benefit from Mathurin being out, I would expect he takes on that Mathurin role which should give him a few more minutes and will look like a nice option again in this one. From the Pistons, they’re a mess as usual with Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Isaiah Stewart, Hamidou Diallo, and Alec Burks all ruled out for this one. We saw Jalen Duren and Killian Hayes come off of the bench in their first games back last time out but I would expect to see Hayes back in the starting lineup at the very least with Ivey out. He’ll see an ice boost and will look like a nice option at this price tag. James Wiseman has been the starting center and has looked great with at least 35 DraftKings points in back-to-back games, he’s going to look like a nice option as well in this one. Marvin Bagley’s price tag has come way up and for no good reason considering his recent production, he’s going to be a GPP-only guy in this one. It feels like we have to deal with this team on a nightly basis, doesn’t it?
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Jordan Nwora, Killian Hayes, James Wiseman
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Chris Duarte, Jalen Duren, Marvin Bagley, Isaiah Livers
Boston Celtics @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -5.0
Starting with the Celtics, Jaylen Brown came down to Earth last time out in a blowout against the Blazers which caused him to play just 25 minutes. I have no issue going back to him in this one, it’s a great matchup and he has at least 50 DraftKings points in his previous three games. Jayson Tatum has been incredible as of late and will look like one of the better spend-up options on the slate in this one. Then the trio of Malcolm Brogdon, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White are all pretty similar, their prices reflect that as well. The matchup will look great against this Hawks backcourt, so they’re all firmly in play here, but Smart has the most locked-in minutes, so if I had to choose between them, he would probably be the guy I look toward. Then, Robert Williams will miss this game again, we saw Al Horford move back to the starting center over Mike Muscala, and will look like a solid mid-range option in this one. From the Hawks, Trae Young has looked much better over his last two games and nearly dropped a 50-burger against the Celtics the last time these two met. I like going right back to the well with him in this one. I never love Dejounte Murray when Trae is in there but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. He’d be more of a tournament option than anything for me in this one. Clint Capela is more of a tournament guy due to the volatility in his minutes, if you told me he was guaranteed to play 30+ I’d fire him up, but unfortunately, we don’t have that with him. Then the group of De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Saddiq Bey eat into each other’s production and are fine GPP darts if you land on them in your builds. Hunter had the big game last time out and has the most secure minutes of the group.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Trae Young, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Marcus Smart, Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Saddiq Bey
Dallas Mavericks @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.5
This game could have been so much fun with the headline reading “Luka vs. Ja Morant”… but Luka is hurt and will be out here, and Ja Morant is away from the team, so there goes that idea. We’ll start with the Mavs who also have Kyrie Irving coming in as questionable. He’s going to look like an elite option if he’s able to go, he has a 27.4% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with Luka off of the court this season. If Kyrie were to sit as well then we fire up the Jaden Hardy train! Christian Wood was popular last time out and may also be again in this one, I’ll likely be lower on him with Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber expected back. Tim Hardaway will see a boost with Luka out as well and he’s been in good form over his last few games. Then that group of wings will be fine options, guys like Bullock, Kleber, and Josh Green, but they’re not exactly the sexiest options. From the Grizzlies, as I mentioned, they’ll continue to be without Ja Morant for the next few games while Brandon Clarke will miss the rest of the season. I would expect Tyus Jones stays in the starting lineup until Morant is back. Below is how this team operates with Morant off of the court this season:
- Tyus Jones – 19.7% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Desmond Bane – 28.0% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
- Dillon Brooks – 27.2% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Jaren Jackson Jr. – 28.5% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
- Xavier Tillman – 15.6% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
Jones bounced back in a massive way last time out and is averaging 41.6 DraftKings/41.3 FanDuel points per game in 12 games without Ja this season. We should see more minutes out of Santi Aldama off of the bench as well with Clarke out. Brooks was a guy I had some interest in last time out as well, I don’t mind going back to him in tournaments, he’s going to look to score it just comes down to whether the shots are falling or not.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Tyus Jones, Desmond Bane
4-star play: Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jaren Jackson, Dillon Brooks, Xavier Tillman
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Green, Maxi Kleber, Reggie Bullock, Santi Aldama
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Chicago Bulls @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -7.5
Starting with the Bulls, they’re never all that fun to break down due to the big three eating into each other’s production. They’re all coming off of solid games against the Nuggets, but are priced right about where they should be. Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all secondary options for me on this slate, but I don’t have an issue with them if you fall on them to round out your lineups. DeRozan and LaVine are pretty even on usage this season at 28.6% while Vucevic leads the team in averaging 1.17 fantasy points per minute. Patrick Beverley has been starting at point guard since signing with the team and isn’t a great per-minute producer but the minutes will certainly be there if you need a value option. Then guys like Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso are fine secondary GPP options as well. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. should be good to go here after missing their last game and looks like a solid option. Jalen Green was a guy I had a bunch of last time out and will continue to play all the minutes he can handle, I have no issue with him here although his price tag has started to come up. Alperen Sengun hasn’t flashed that massive ceiling lately that we’ve seen from him at points this season but is still a guy I like going back to in this one. Tari Eason’s price tag has finally started to come up to a spot where I don’t feel the need to force him in every night, but he’s still a solid option in a great matchup. Then guys like KJ Martin and Jabari Smith are solid secondary options.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Kevin Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Beverley, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason
Oklahoma City Thunder @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -2.0
Starting with the Thunder, they should get Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams back in this one and be pretty close to full health outside of Pokusevski. Gilgeous-Alexander will look great here at a dirt cheap price tag on DraftKings, he’s averaged 54.5 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Pelicans this season. The price tag isn’t as nice on FanDuel, but still firmly in play as a spend-up option. I don’t exactly want to pay this price tag for Josh Giddey but he’s a fine secondary option. Jalen Williams has been great over their last few games and is a guy I have no issue with at this price tag as well, the matchup sets up nicely. We can jump off of the Isaiah Joe train with these guys back, while Lu Dort would be a volatile GPP option. Lastly, Jaylin Williams should continue to start at center and be a fine value option if you need one. From the Pelicans, Jonas Valanciunas gave us a big ole’ middle finger last time out. He somehow got a foul before the opening tip and then got his second two minutes into the game, then didn’t see the court for the rest of the half. His minutes are volatile but we know the ceiling is there in a great matchup, just tread lightly. Brandon Ingram left the game early last time out and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. CJ McCollum would see a nice boost if he’s forced to miss and would make plenty of sense in this matchup. Then guys like Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, and Josh Richardson would see a boost as well and look like nice secondary options.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (DraftKings)
4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (FanDuel), Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey, Jonas Valanciunas, CJ McCollum
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Josh Giddey, Jaylin Williams, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Josh Richardson
Milwaukee Bucks @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 240.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -1.0
Starting with the Bucks, Giannis Antetokounmpo comes into this one as questionable with that hand injury and has missed their last few games, so that’s big news we’ll need to keep an eye on. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s a go just due to the close spread, but it feels pretty up in the air. He scored 56.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and would see around 35 minutes in a competitive game, he’ll look like a top spend-up option on this slate. I don’t love the price tag on Jrue Holiday but he’s a fine option, his ceiling is a bit capped with Giannis in there. Khris Middleton should remain in the starting lineup moving forward and is likely off of that minute’s restriction he was fighting for about a month, he’s going to look like a nice option in a fast-paced matchup. Then, Brook Lopez continues to play well as well, I have no issue with him as a GPP option to round out this team, I don’t see the need to get to guys like Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder in anything other than MME. From the Warriors, Steph Curry came down to Earth somewhat against the Grizzlies last time out but will be a guy I have an interest in in a game with a 240 implied total. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson will take the biggest hit in terms of usage and fantasy production as Curry absorbs more attention in the offense and their price tags don’t reflect that quite yet, so I’ll be underweight on these guys for the time being. Draymond Green is a fine option, but never a guy I feel the need to prioritize. Donte DiVincenzo should remain in the starting lineup until Andrew Wiggins returns and is in good form outside of a pretty terrible game last time out. He helps roster construction with that SG/SF eligibility and gets a revenge game here! Finally, Kevon Looney hasn’t been in the best form over his last few games and is more of a GPP guy for me on this slate.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Steph Curry
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Brook Lopez, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevon Looney
Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -3.0
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has at least 48 FanDuel points in five straight games and is going to look like a great option yet again in this one. The price tag on De’Aaron Fox is catching up with Sabonis which makes him a bit more volatile, but we know the ceiling is great on him, so I have no issue going right back to the well. Kevin Huerter came down to Earth last time out but the minutes have been there over his last handful of games, so he’ll make sense yet again in this one. Then guys like Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Malik Monk make sense as secondary GPP options in all formats. From the Suns, they’ll be without Kevin Durant for the next few weeks after slipping on the floor pre-game last time out. Devin Booker should benefit from more usage and production but we ultimately go back to a similar situation we had pre-Durant with him. He has at least 57 DraftKings points in four straight games and looks like a great option yet again in this one. Chris Paul will look good as well as he’ll take on more of a scoring role. Deandre Ayton is averaging 46.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Kings this season and looks great as well. Then guys like Josh Okogie and Terrence Ross make sense with Durant out and should pick up minutes and shot opportunities.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Chris Paul
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, Josh Okogie, Terrence Ross
NBA Lock of the Day: Tim Hardaway Jr. (DK – $5.3k; FD – $5.6k)
I’ll clarify by saying this would be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander if his price tag was as good on FanDuel as it is on DraftKings, but wanted to find a play that fits both sites, so we head to Dallas. They’ll be without Luka Doncic and potentially Kyrie Irving in this one. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been in good form over his last few games and has a 25.3% usage rate with Luka off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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