Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 3/10:
Mar 8, 2023; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Kevin Love (42) reacts on the court during the first quarter against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami-Dade Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Atlanta Hawks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 238.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Hawks, Trae Young was awesome last time out and is a guy I want to go right back to in this one. He’s averaging 49.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Wizards this season, a Wizards team that gets destroyed by pick and roll’s that Trae excels at. I never love Dejounte Murray when Trae is in there but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. He’d be more of a tournament option than anything for me in this one. Clint Capela is more of a tournament guy due to the volatility in his minutes, if you told me he was guaranteed to play 30+ I’d fire him up, but unfortunately, we don’t have that with him. Then the group of De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, and Saddiq Bey eat into each other’s production and are fine GPP darts if you land on them in your builds. Bogdanovic had the big game last time out but is only playing around 24 minutes per game over his last handful. From the Wizards, Monte Morris returned last time out but Delon Wright stuck around in the starting lineup. Wright is my preference, but Morris would be my preference if he starts, they’re pretty interchangeable. Kristaps Porzingis had a massive game last time out but I wouldn’t expect him to shoot 7-10 from three-point range again in this one. Bradley Beal was a guy I had a bunch of last time out as well and is averaging 49.0 DraftKings points in two games against the Hawks this season. Kyle Kuzma bounced back nicely last time out as well and makes sense in all formats in a great matchup. Daniel Gafford isn’t a guy I like any time Kuzma and Kristaps are good to go.
5-star play: Trae Young, Kristaps Porzingis
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Saddiq Bey, Delon Wright, Daniel Gafford
Portland Trail Blazers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -8.5
Starting with the Blazers, Anfernee Simons comes into this one as questionable after missing their last few games. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. With Simons out, we can go right back to Damian Lillard even in a tougher matchup against this Philly defense, he also has a 39.0% usage rate and 1.67 fantasy points per minute with Simons off of the court this season. Jusuf Nurkic returned to the starting lineup last time out but played just 17 minutes, some of that is likely due to the blowout, but I wouldn’t expect he’s quite ready to play 30 minutes. They’ll need his size to handle Embiid down low, but is a GPP-only guy. Jerami Grant came down to Earth in a tough matchup last time out and is a fine secondary option in this one, we know the minutes will be there. Drew Eubanks will go back to the bench with Nurkic back and is probably a guy we can get off of moving forward. Guys like Matisse Thybulle and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid had a big game against the Wolves last time out and is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate. James Harden ended up missing their last game with a foot injury but should be good to go here, he has at least 53 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is a guy I like going right back to in a great matchup here. The price tag on Tyrese Maxey is way up and probably not a guy I want to get to at that tag, he’s elevated after performing well with Harden out last game, but we do know the minutes will be there. The same can be said for Tobias Harris, but to a lesser extent, I think he’s a fine GPP option.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Tobias Harris
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jusuf Nurkic, Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, Tyrese Maxey
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -1.5
We’ll start with the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell had a tough game against this same Miami team last time out with a bad shooting night going 1-7 from three-point range. It’s a tough matchup which makes him more of a tournament option for me. The price tag on Darius Garland has come up which doesn’t make you feel great in a tougher matchup against this Heat defense, but he’s been in good form. Evan Mobley is averaging 36.9 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Heat this season and makes sense here, he’s been in great form. Then Jarrett Allen bounced back nicely last time out, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more. We can probably make a case for Ricky Rubio as a dart throw value option as well… but hopefully, we get better value opening up. From the Heat, Tyler Herro has been all over the place as of late and is more of a tournament option at his current price tag in a bad matchup with the Cavs. He’s probably not a guy I’ll prioritize, but I’d have no issue with him if you land on him to round out a roster. Jimmy Butler has been showing a nice ceiling as of late as well, he has at least 48 FanDuel points in three of his last four. Bam Adebayo has seen his production trend in the wrong direction over his last few games. This is a tough matchup with Mobley and Allen down low, so more of a secondary option for me. Guys like Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, and Victor Oladipo will continue to fill the void left by Kyle Lowry who has already been ruled out in this one. Then Kevin Love ended up giving it a go last time out and will stick in the starting lineup, I do like his price tag in a revenge game.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Kevin Love
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ricky Rubio, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Kevin Love
Brooklyn Nets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Min -4.5
Starting with the Nets, we don’t have an injury report on them yet, but I would expect they get their main pieces back after resting last night. The one guy I would expect to still be out is Ben Simmons who has been out for their last handful of games. We were all over the Mikal Bridges being limited news last night in our Breaking News Feed, so it was good to get some leverage there. Spencer Dinwiddie came down to Earth in a great matchup with the Rockets last time out, but I have no issue going back to him in this one, he’ll continue to run this offense next to Bridges. Speaking of Mikal Bridges, he’s been a guy I’ve been playing a bunch of, he’s a new player on this Nets team. Since joining the Nets, he has a 27.8% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Cam Thomas was a disappointment filling in for these guys last night, but I would expect he moves back to playing sub-10 minutes in this one and isn’t a guy we need to get to. Nicolas Claxton will have his hands full with Gobert down low but should help secure his minutes a bit, he’s going to look like a nice secondary option at the very least. Then, Cam Johnson has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and looks good as well. From the Wolves, Rudy Gobert is going to continue to be a guy I like going forward, and seems slightly underpriced. Mike Conley has helped his production immensely since coming over in the D’Angelo Russell trade. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards has been a bit more volatile as of late but I love the matchup in this one, he’s going to look like a solid option in all formats. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as GPP options at the forward position.
5-star play: Mikal Bridges, Rudy Gobert
4-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Cam Johnson, Nicolas Claxton, Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dorian Finney-Smith, Jaden McDaniels
Denver Nuggets @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Den -12.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate after a down game last time out… I use down game loosely, as he still dropped 45 DraftKings points. He’s averaging 54 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Spurs this season and looks great again in this one. Jamal Murray had a down game last time out but is going to play big minutes and I’ll chalk that game up to bad shooting. I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Then guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. make sense as secondary options and we can probably add Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to that group, but he’s in a different price range. From the Spurs, Keldon Johnson is averaging 39 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Nuggets this season, and makes sense in all formats again in this one. I would expect they take the training wheels off of Devin Vassell moving forward as he played 29 minutes last time out, he’s going to look like a great option at this price tag. Zach Collins will have his hands full with Jokic down low but has been extremely consistent since taking over as the starting center for this team. Guys like Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones make sense in the mid-range as well in a game with an implied total of 235. The price tag on Charles Bassey is way up, but for good reason due to his recent form, he’s probably not playable here but is interesting to see if he gets extra run should Collins get in trouble against Jokic. Lastly, Devonte’ Graham is going to lose some shine as this team begins to get healthier, I would expect he plays minutes in the low 20s.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Devin Vassell
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, Jeremy Sochan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jeremy Sochan, Tre Jones, Charles Bassey, Devonte’ Graham
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Toronto Raptors @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -1.0
Starting with the Raptors, Pascal Siakam hasn’t been great over his last handful of games and has a fine matchup in this one. I can’t say he’s my favorite option here, but the price tag is nice considering he dropped 53.0 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Fred VanVleet got off to a hot start last time out but cooled off as the game went on and had some kind words for the officiating after the game. That said, I have no issue going right back to him in a great matchup. Scottie Barnes bounced back nicely last time out and is going to play all the minutes he can handle. Jakob Poeltl is a guy I like going back to as well. He’s averaging 36.0 DraftKings/38.0 FanDuel points per game in 11 games with the Raptors this season. Then guys like OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. make sense as secondary options to round out this team. From the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell returned last time out to play just nine minutes and comes into this one as probable. He’s not a guy we need to get to at this price tag until we see him return to his normal role. Anthony Davis is the main piece I want from this team, he has at least 60 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is going to look like an elite option again here. We can round this team out with Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley as secondary options to round out lineups.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Jakob Poeltl, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Gary Trent, Dennis Schroder
NBA Lock of the Day: Rudy Gobert (DK – $7.0k; FD – $7.9k)
This is more of a pricing play than anything for Gobert who has seen a price decrease after a down game last time out. He’s averaging 36.6 DraftKings/FanDuel points per game since the trade deadline when they changed up their backcourt. He’s just slightly underpriced and the matchup makes plenty of sense. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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