Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/8:
Feb 5, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Toronto Raptors forward Precious Achiuwa (5) and Toronto Raptors guard Gary Trent Jr. (33) get back on defense during the first half against the Memphis Grizzlies at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k over the weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Detroit Pistons @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -12.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Pistons, Alec Burks will stick in the starting lineup as Saddiq Bey moves back to the bench with Isaiah Stewart back in there. Burks has not been good over his last few games and this isn’t exactly a great bounce-back spot either, he’d be more of a tournament option on a big slate. Bey kept it rolling off of the bench, however, he has at least 33 DraftKings points in four straight games. Bojan Bogdanovic is never really a guy I prioritize much but he’s a fine secondary option as a filler piece. Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes are more GPP options than anything, Hayes had the better game last time out, but Ivey should continue to start. Then Jalen Duren should continue to see the majority of the center minutes and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one even in a tougher matchup. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has been pretty volatile as of late but it’s been mostly due to blowouts and we might have a similar issue tonight. He’s seen under 30 minutes in two of his last three, but as we know blowouts are hard to predict, so I have no issue with going to him under the assumption he gets his full run. I don’t love the price tag on Darius Garland he’s been better than Mitchell for cheaper. Evan Mobley has been great as of late as well and is averaging 40.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Pistons this season. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range. We do need to touch on Ricky Rubio, he has at least 24 DraftKings points in three straight and is a fine value option if nothing else opens up on this slate.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Saddiq Bey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: Ricky Rubio
GPP Sleeper: Alec Burks, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren, Ricky Rubio
Charlotte Hornets @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball has at least 56 FanDuel points in three of his last four and looks like a great option in this one. Terry Rozier has been in solid form as well, he’s not a guy we need to prioritize but he’ll make sense in all formats. Mason Plumlee gets a nice matchup in this one and has been sneaky good all season. I don’t love the price tag on PJ Washington but he’s shown a nice ceiling over the last few weeks if you want to take a shot in tournaments. Then guys like Jalen McDaniels and Gordon Hayward are GPP-only options as well. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma come into this one as questionable so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock, but I’ll operate under the assumption they’re both good to go for the sake of this article. Beal is AVERAGING 49.5 FanDuel points per game in two games against the Wizards this season. I’d like him more if Kuzma were to sit, but he’ll still look solid at his current price tag. Kuzma would look like a fine option but feels like he’s priced right around where he should be. Kristaps Porzingis wasn’t very productive last time out but was bitten by the blowout bug, he’d be a fine option in this one in a good matchup. Guys like Deni Avdija and Daniel Gafford are more tournament options than anything, we can probably throw Monte Morris in that group as well.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Kristaps Porzingis
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward, Jalen McDaniels, Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford, Monte Morris
Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Bos -4.5
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid has had a questionable tag in each of his last games but has played through each one of them, so I’ll go ahead and assume he’s good to go here as well. He was good in this matchup earlier this season and the Celtics aren’t exactly a great rebounding team. James Harden bounced back nicely last time out and is a fine option in a tough matchup here. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey will be secondary/GPP options on a big slate, I just have a hard time trusting them with Harden and Embiid soaking up all the usage. The same can be said for De’Anthony Melton. From the Celtics, they’ll continue to be without Marcus Smart but otherwise, come in pretty healthy. Jayson Tatum has at least 55 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and will look like a nice spend-up option in this one. Jaylen Brown bounced back nicely last time out as well and is a fine option in all formats. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White will benefit from Smart being out, but the minutes for Brogdon are all over the place making him more of a tournament guy. Then Robert Williams is a guy I like going right back to here, he had a huge game last time out.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: James Harden, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Robert Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -6.5
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton hasn’t been great over their last couple of games and gets a tough matchup in this one with a good and slow Miami team. Myles Turner has at least 45 FanDuel points in three straight games and makes sense in all formats. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith are tournament-only options in a tough matchup. From the Heat, they’ll continue to be without Victor Oladipo and Kyle Lowry, so we should see Gabe Vincent back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Gabe Vincent – 19.3% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
- Tyler Herro – 28.0% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Caleb Martin – 15.6% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
- Jimmy Butler – 24.1% usage rate; 1.41 fpm
- Bam Adebayo – 27.7% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
Vincent hasn’t been great but at his price tag, you could do worse in a nice matchup. Bam, Herro, and Jimmy Butler all looked good in their last game against the Bucks and all will make sense in this one as well. The price tag is fair on all of them in a good spot. Then Caleb Martin has at least 32 DraftKings points in two of his last three and should see big minutes.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Max Strus
San Antonio Spurs @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -10.5
Starting with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones come in as questionable while Jeremy Sochan has been ruled out. I’ll operate under the assumption that these two will be good to go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Johnson can be extremely hard to trust due to his volatility but gets a great matchup here and we know he has some upside. Jones ended up missing their last game, so make sure he’s a full go here, but would look like a solid mid-range option if he’s able to return. Jakob Poeltl is incredibly hard to project due to his minutes’ volatility as of late but has at least 33 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is too cheap if the minutes are there. He’s another guy that could be traded by Thursday’s deadline. Then guys like Josh Richardson and Keita Bates-Diop make sense as roster fillers but would look better if either Johnson or Jones ends up sitting. From the Raptors, they’ll continue to be without OG Anunoby, so we should see Precious Achiuwa right back in the starting lineup. Achiuwa has been solid, as has Chris Boucher off of the bench and we know how good he can be from a per-minute standpoint. Pascal Siakam had a massive game in this spot earlier this season and is a guy that I don’t mind going back to even considering his recent form. Fred VanVleet finally came down to Earth last time out but gets an elite bounce back spot in this one. Scottie Barnes feels like he’s priced right about where he should be and has been fairly consistent over the last few weeks. Then a guy like Gary Trent Jr. would be a GPP option, but should still see big minutes.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl, Precious Achiuwa, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Josh Richardson, Keita Bates-Diop, Chris Boucher
Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -8.5
We saw this matchup last time these two teams met, so we have a bit of a sample size to go off of here. Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox returned last time out and wasn’t exactly great, but he also only played 29 minutes due to a blowout. I would have no issue going right back to him in this one. Fox being back means we can jump off of the Davion Mitchell and Terence Davis train, while Malik Monk would be more of a tournament option. Domantas Sabonis hasn’t been in the best form as of late but the matchup is really tough to ignore against this Rockets defense, he’s going to look great here. Then the group of Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Kevin Huerter all make sense as lineup fillers in a good matchup. Huerter and Murray looked great last time out, but they’ll all play big minutes. From the Rockets, Jalen Green returned last time out and played just 22 minutes due to getting smacked around by the Thunder. I don’t imagine he’s on any sort of minutes restriction and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. They’ll continue to be without Kevin Porter Jr., however, while Eric Gordon should good to go as well. Below is how this team operates with Porter Jr. and Gordon off of the court this season:
- Jalen Green – 30.8% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 23.9% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- KJ Martin – 17.3% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Jabari Smith – 21.5% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 22.2% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
Both Green and Sengun are going to look like great options and would-be guys I get a bunch of in this one. Then KJ Martin and Jabari Smith make plenty of sense in that mid-range and both have multi-position eligibility on DraftKings (Smith is PF only on FanDuel).
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Alperen Sengun
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Jalen Green, Eric Gordon, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Uta -4.0
Starting with the Wolves, Anthony Edwards and pretty much this whole team was atrocious against the Nuggets last night. Edwards only saw 21 minutes due to a blowout but we know he’s been great since Towns went down and he has a 31.0% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute with Towns off of the court this season. D’Angelo Russell has been a bit more volatile as of late but has been one of the more consistent options on this team this season. Rudy Gobert should be good to go here after playing thru a questionable tag the last few games and I’m sure he’s going to want to play in a revenge game in Utah. That said, he’s really struggled in this matchup averaging just 28.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Jazz this season. I do like the price tag, so he’s more of a secondary option. Kyle Anderson ended up sitting last night which shot Naz Reid into the starting lineup, and well… that didn’t work. I would expect Reid to go back to the bench even if Anderson is forced to miss this one again. Then a guy like Jaden McDaniels would be more of a GPP dart than anything, he would see a boost if Anderson is forced to miss as well. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen’s price tag has come up a good amount as of late but the matchup is pretty good and we know the ceiling is there. He’s probably more of a secondary option, but he’s firmly in play as a tournament option. The same thing can be said for Jordan Clarkson, but he’s also been in good form and the matchup doesn’t scare me against this Wolves defense. Walker Kessler has at least 36 FanDuel points in three of his last four and was the main piece (outside of the 13 first round picks) in the Gobert deal, so you have to think he’ll have something he wants to prove as well. Kelly Olynyk was a guy I liked a good amount at his price tag last time out and it did come up a bit. I still think he’s in play as a tournament option as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if they just left Jarred Vanderbilt out for this game as well, it feels like he’s all but traded already, so why risk it with his back injury. Mike Conley has been in good form with at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and makes sense in all formats as well.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, Kelly Olynyk
Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -8.0
Starting with the Mavs, they’ll be without Luka Doncic again here, but Kyrie Irving is expected to make his Mavs debut. I would imagine we get the same starting lineup we saw last time out but with Kyrie at the starting point guard spot over McKinley Wright. Obviously, it’s a different team and scenario, but Kyrie has a 30.5% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute on the season, he’s going to look like a great option as the catalyst of this offense until Luka is back. Christian Wood came off of the bench last time out and his price tag came up, he’s going to be more of a tournament option here unless he moves back into the starting lineup. I would expect guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green to continue to play big minutes on the wing as well and makes sense as secondary options while I do think we can jump off of the Jaden Hardy train unless you think he runs the court any time Kyrie goes to the bench. Hardaway and Green will look the best and are both averaging over a fantasy point per minute with Luka and Dinwiddie off of the court this season… but Hardy makes for an interesting GPP flyer. Then guys like Dwight Powell and Reggie Bullock aren’t sexy options, but they should play all the minutes they can handle here. From the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has been in great form as of late averaging 50.8 DraftKings points per game in his last five games and will look solid again in this one. Paul George is more of a secondary option as he’s been somewhat volatile as of late. Ivica Zubac is playing a ton of minutes right now but the’s produced nicely as well and this is an elite matchup against a Mavs team that has been terrible defensively. Norman Powell has at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a solid GPP option yet again in this one.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, Paul George, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Christian Wood, Jaden Hardy, Dwight Powell, Reggie Bullock, Norman Powell
Golden State Warriors @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Por -3.0
Starting with the Warriors, they’ll be without Steph Curry for the near future and Jordan Poole will slide into that starting point guard slot. I was expecting Kevon Looney to start as well, but instead, it was Jonathan Kuminga, so I would assume we get the same lineup in this one. Below is how this team operates with Curry off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 34.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Klay Thompson – 27.6% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Andrew Wiggins – 23.8% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Jonathan Kuminga – 20.4% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Draymond Green – 11.4% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
Poole and Klay see the biggest rates increase as well as Wiggins which makes sense, Green and Looney aren’t big usage guys in the first place. I have no issue with any of these guys, they’re not really priced for Curry to be out, so there is some meat on the bone here. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard came down to Earth against the Bucks and is starting to come off of his heater a bit. That said, I do love this matchup, a matchup in which he dropped 54 DraftKings points in earlier this season. Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out for a while, so I would expect Drew Eubanks will get the start in Nurkic’s spot even after getting banged up last game. He has an 11.2% usage rate and 0.86 fantasy points per minute with Nurkic off of the court this season and was fine relative to his price tag last night. Anfernee Simons has been floating in that 30-40 fantasy point range over the last few months and has been extremely consistent. I never have an issue with him as a filler piece if you land on him toward the end of your roster construction. Josh Hart kept it rolling as well, he’s another guy that will garner some ownership just based on the position, but it’s warranted at this price tag. Lastly, I would expect Jerami Grant to benefit from Nurkic being out moving forward and should continue to play big minutes… but he’s been held under 30 FanDuel points in four straight games.
5-star play: Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Damian Lillard
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Draymond Green, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Jerami Grant
Deeper Value: Jonathan Kuminga
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Jonathan Kuminga, Drew Eubanks, Trendon Watford
NBA Lock of the Day: Jordan Poole (DK – $7.1k; FD – $7.6k)
I’m going right back to the well with Jordan Poole in this one, his price tag came up slightly but I expect him to be an $8k while Steph Curry is out. He has a 34.6% usage rate and 1.13 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season and I love the matchup with the Blazers in this one. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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