Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/7:
May 4, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Phoenix Suns guard Devin Booker (1) reacts during the first half in game two of the second round for the 2022 NBA playoffs at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k over the weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
New York Knicks @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -1.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Knicks, Jalen Brunson came down to Earth last time out after back-to-back huge games against the Los Angeles teams. I would have no issue going back to him here but the price tag has certainly come up. Julius Randle has been good as well and we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. The same can be said for RJ Barrett and his SF eligibility will increase his ownership simply due to how much of a wasteland that position has been as of late. He does come in as questionable, so make sure to watch the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock for updates. Then I would imagine we continue to see Jericho Sims start in place of Mitchell Robinson while Isaiah Hartenstein has been the better producer over the last few games. The minutes are trending up for Hartenstein and it wouldn’t surprise me if they rode the hot hand again with him here. From the Magic, Paolo Banchero bounced back in a big way against the Hornets last time out and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. The multi-position eligibility makes it easier to get to him. Franz Wagner has been held under 25 FanDuel points in three straight games and would be more of a secondary option than anything. I do like Wendell Carter Jr., however, he’s playing good minutes and the price tag just feels a bit low. This Knicks frontcourt does not scare me defensively right now. Markelle Fultz is a fine option as well, that’s the issue with this team, they go like 10 guys deep with legit NBA guys which hurts their DFS appeal. Jalen Suggs came down to Earth last time out but still had a solid game, he’ll be a tournament value option while Jonathan Isaac is still floating around that 10-minute mark per night, so he’s not really in play quite yet.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Hartenstein, Jericho Sims, Markelle Fultz
Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -1.5
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young has been good over his last couple of games and looks like a solid option yet again in this one. He ended up missing their last game but it was with an illness, so I would imagine he’s a full go here. Dejounte Murray has seen his price tag come way up over $9k after his last performance, but again, that was without Trae, so I would expect his production to come down to where I don’t want to pay this price tag for him. Clint Capela has been fine as of late but we haven’t seen those big 30-minute+ games as of late, he’d be more of a secondary center option for me. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another guy that I would expect to come down with Trae back in there, but I don’t hate the price tag on him. The same can be said for De’Andre Hunter and John Collins, just not guys I can see prioritizing in this one… both guys have been good though, so no issue with them as secondary pieces. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas should return here which means we can probably jump off of the Larry Nance and Willy Hernangomez train. Nance is still in play as a GPP dart, but Hernangomez will be a no-go. CJ McCollum was pretty chalky last time out with Ingram being inactive, they ended up blowing out the Kings which hurt his minutes, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. I like the price tag on Ingram quite a bit as well, he has at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and gets an elite matchup in this one. Guys like Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, and Herb Jones will take a hit with these two back in the starting lineup but still make sense as roster fillers due to their position eligibility.
5-star play: Trae Young, Brandon Ingram
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, CJ McCollum
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, Herb Jones, Larry Nance
Phoenix Suns @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -5.0
Starting with the Suns, they’re expecting to get Devin Booker back in this one for the first time since he went down on Christmas Day, so it’s been over a month since he’s seen game action. I would imagine he’s on some sort of minutes restriction that will keep him out of my lineup, but it’s notable for the other guys on this team. Both Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton will take a rate hit with Booker in there, but again, I don’t expect Booker to be out there all that much, so I’m not going to go too crazy on overreacting. Ayton had another massive game last time out and has a 27.2% usage rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Paul hasn’t been great over his last three games, so he’s probably more of a secondary option, but the price tag is nice on him even with Booker back. Then guys like Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges make sense as wing options as well. From the Nets, I wouldn’t expect Spencer Dinwiddie to play quite yet for the Nets, but there’s certainly a chance, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding him as we get closer to lock. I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s not available again in this one… there’s still a real chance that they try to flip him to another team yet before the deadline. Ben Simmons comes in as questionable but sounds like he’s going to be able to play. We haven’t really seen Simmons play over 30 minutes in the last few weeks, so he’d be a fade for me even if he plays or at most a tournament option. Then we get to the showstopper, Cam Thomas, he has at least 57 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and has a 29.4% usage rate and 1.08 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie and Durant off of the court this season. that said, I wouldn’t expect he shoots 63%+ from three-point range going forward as he has over his last few games… but his price hasn’t adjusted which makes it hard to ignore him. Nic Claxton will look great as well, he’s been in good form. Royce O’Neale is never a sexy option, but he’ll play all the minutes he can handle here and makes sense again. Guys like Joe Harris and TJ Warren would be GPP options at best to round this team out. Then, I would imagine we see Edmond Sumner in the starting lineup again as well, he’s looked great running this offense and is another guy who hasn’t seen a price adjustment.
5-star play: Deandre Ayton, Cam Thomas, Edmond Sumner
4-star play: Chris Paul, Cam Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Nic Claxton, Royce O’Neale
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Chris Paul, Cam Johnson, Joe Harris, TJ Warren, Ben Simmons
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -8.0
Starting with the Bulls, we kind of know the deal with this team by now, the production starts and ends with the big three in this lineup. Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are all in solid form as of late. It can be hard to predict which of the three will have the big game and who will have the dud on a nightly basis, however. Vucevic was the only one who had a good game last night while LaVine and DeRozan were held under 30 DraftKings points. I do like this spot as a bounce-back spot, however. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Coby White with Alex Caruso out, but hopefully, we can find better value options. Hopefully, they will unload a piece or two from this team before the trade deadline to make them a bit more interesting… would love to see LaVine moved, honestly. From the Grizzlies, Steven Adams will continue to be out so we should see Xavier Tillman right back in the starting lineup in this one. Ja Morant is expected to return in this one after an odd storyline as they left that Indiana game. He’s going to look like a great option in this one and has at least 58 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. I loved me some Jaren Jackson Jr. last time out with Morant out… but foul trouble is a quick kick in the shin. I have no issue going back to him here but would be a GPP guy due to that volatility. Desmond Bane was great last time out filling in for Morant, he’ll continue to look like a nice secondary even with Morant back in there. Then Brandon Clarke is a fine GPP option to round out this team along with Dillon Brooks, but I wouldn’t touch them in cash games.
5-star play: Ja Morant
4-star play: Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Xavier Tillman
Deeper Value: Coby White
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Williams, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu, Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Den -9.0
Starting with the Timberwolves, Anthony Edwards came down to Earth over his last couple of games but has been great over his last few weeks and really ever since Towns went down with an injury. The Nuggets aren’t great defensively against opposing guards and he has a 31.1% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute with Towns off of the court this season. D’Angelo Russell bounced back in a big way last time out, I have no issue going right back to the well with him as his price tag didn’t move. Rudy Gobert comes in as questionable again in this one and will look like a solid option if he’s able to play otherwise we go right back to Naz Reid as a great option in all formats. Kyle Anderson is never a sexy option, but he makes plenty of sense as a lineup filler with SF/PF eligibility. Then a guy like Jaden McDaniels would be more of a GPP dart than anything, he would see a boost if either Gobert or Anderson are forced to miss as well. From the Nuggets, they should get their main pieces back after resting/injury management last time out. Nikola Jokic is going to be right up there with the Lakers guys as the top spend-up option on the slate. The Wolves have not been great against opposing big men this season even though they spent a king’s ransom on Rudy Gobert… Jokic will look great here. Jamal Murray has been on a heater and now has at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last five and will look like a good option in all formats again in this one. Michael Porter Jr. had a nice bounce-back game last night and is always a guy I have an interest in for tournaments, but his volatility is hard to stomach in cash games. Then Aaron Gordon returned last time out and looked solid as well, I’d have no issue going right back to the well with him. Guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are secondary GPP options… but don’t feel the need to chase that Brown game when everyone was out.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 238.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -7.0
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to be a guy I like quite a bit in a great matchup yet again. He sees a nice increase in his rates with Lu Dort off of the court, as odd as it sounds. He has a 38.6% usage rate and 1.61 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season and gets a great matchup against the Lakers. Josh Giddey came down to Earth a bit last night and now has at least 44 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. I do like going right back to Jalen Williams but he’s probably a bit too volatile for cash games, so I’ll leave him for tournaments. Kenrich Williams is never a sexy option but gets the job done more times than not, especially as of late with Dort and Pokusevski out… I have no issue going right back to him as well. Then whoever starts between Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins are pretty desperate options for your lineup and probably not guys I’ll get to based on how bad they are on a point-per-minute basis. From the Lakers, I’m just going to operate under the assumption that LeBron James and Anthony Davis will play moving forward because they always have some sort of injury designation, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as always. LeBron’s production has come down a bit with Davis back in there but he’s 35 points away from setting the all-time scoring record and I would think he wants to do it at home over his next two games… I have no issue using him as a GPP pivot off of Jokic. I do love going right back to Anthony Davis at a cheaper price tag than James, however. He should do whatever he wants against this Thunder frontcourt and has at least 58 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. The rest of this team is hard to trust as they need to take usage away from LeBron and Davis, but guys like Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder, and Rui Hachimura will be GPP-only guys to round out the team.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Josh Giddey, LeBron James
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams, Russell Westbrook, Dennis Schroder, Rui Hachimura
NBA Lock of the Day: Edmond Sumner (DK – $4.1k; FD – $5.3k)
Keep an eye on if Spencer Dinwiddie is available for the Nets tonight, but I’m operating under the assumption that he won’t be available. This would leave Sumner to start at point guard again and play a ton of minutes. He has a 23.4% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie and Durant off of the court this season. His price tag hasn’t really moved and has at least 36 DraftKings/FanDuel points in back to back games. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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