Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/6:
Jan 26, 2023; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Brooklyn Nets guard Cam Thomas (24) controls the ball against the Detroit Pistons during the first quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k over the weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has been pretty volatile as of late but it’s been mostly due to blowouts. He dropped 56 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and is a guy I think looks good again in this one. I don’t love the price tag on Darius Garland but it’s hard to ignore the production as of late. Evan Mobley has been great as of late as well and even though he struggled in this spot earlier this season, he’s still a guy I would want to get to here. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range. We do need to touch on Ricky Rubio, he has at least 21 DraftKings points in three of his last four and is a fine value option if nothing else opens up on this slate. From the Wizards, they’ll be without Kyle Kuzma while Bradley Beal comes in as questionable, I’ll operate under the assumption that Beal is good to go but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. I would expect Deni Avdija to continue to start with Kuzma out, but below is how this team operates with Kuz off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 17.7% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 32.0% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 17.6% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Kristaps Porzingis – 29.3% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 16.6% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
I would imagine this is the starting five and the guys I would be most interested in. That usage rate on Beal is really intriguing but he hasn’t been all that great since returning from injury… but has been better over his last couple of games. Avida, Kristaps, and Beal would be my favorite of the group while guys like Morris and Gafford are more of secondary/GPP options.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford
Deeper Value: Corey Kispert
GPP Sleeper: Caris LeVert, Monte Morris, Daniel Gafford, Corey Kispert
Boston Celtics @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -11.5
Starting with the Celtics, they’ll continue to be without Marcus Smart but otherwise, come in pretty healthy. Jayson Tatum came crashing down to Earth with a tough game against the Suns but gets a nice bounce-back spot here. The price is hard to stomach, but he’s firmly in play as a spend-up option on this slate. Jaylen Brown has at least 49 FanDuel points in two of his last three and can be a bit too scoring-dependent for me, but I won’t talk you off of him here. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White will benefit from Smart being out, but I do worry about Brogdon in games like this with a big spread. He losses rotation minutes if they’re in garbage time by mid-way thru the fourth quarter as we’ve seen over the last couple of games… this one may be similar. Then Robert Williams is a guy I like going right back to here, he got back up to 30 minutes last time out, and would expect more of the same here. From the Pistons, Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey should stick around in the starting lineup again, and would expect more of the same here. They’ve both performed nicely as starters over the last week or so and would-be guys I have no issue with going right back to in this one… even with a down game from Burks last time out. Bojan Bogdanovic is never really a guy I prioritize much but it makes sense here, as maybe the Pistons showcase him a bit leading up to this week’s trade deadline. Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes are more GPP options than anything, but Ivey has looked better without Killian in the starting lineup next to him if we exclude their last game. Then Jalen Duren should continue to see the majority of the center minutes and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Robert Williams, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Al Horford, Killian Hayes
Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 218.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -6.5
Starting with the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has been in great form as of late averaging 51.5 DraftKings points per game in his last five games and will look solid again in this one. Paul George bounced back nicely last time out and has been pretty good as of late, love the matchup here, he’s firmly in play as well. Ivica Zubac is playing a ton of minutes right now but this may be a spot where they can lower his minutes some and go small with Marcus Morris and Nic Batum in the front court. That said, Zubac would make sense as a solid tournament option in a good matchup. Norman Powell has at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight games and is a solid GPP option yet again in this one. The rest of this team is pretty meh on a big slate… unless you want to go to those smaller big men like Morris and Batum, but I would imagine we get better value on this slate. From the Nets, they’ve finally freed themselves from Kyrie Irving purgatory by sending him to the Mavs. I wouldn’t expect Spencer Dinwiddie or Dorian Finney-Smith to make their Nets debut here, so we’ll operate under the assumption they’re out in this one. Seth Curry is also out while Ben Simmons comes in as questionable. We haven’t really seen Simmons play over 30 minutes in the last few weeks, so he’d be a fade for me even if he plays or at most a tournament option. I do think we can go right back to Cam Thomas though, he’s coming off of a massive game on Saturday night and with the Nets being shorthanded, they’ll need his playmaking. He has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.02 fantasy points per minute with Kyrie and Durant off of the court this season. Nic Claxton will look great as well, he bounced back nicely last time out. Royce O’Neale is never a sexy option, but he’ll play all the minutes he can handle here and makes sense again. Guys like Joe Harris and TJ Warren would be GPP options at best to round this team out. Then, I would imagine we see Edmond Sumner in the starting lineup again as well, and would make sense as a value option.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Cam Thomas, Nic Claxton, Edmond Sumner, Royce O’Neale
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Joe Harris, TJ Warren, Ben Simmons
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
San Antonio Spurs @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -10.5
Starting with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones come in as questionable while Jeremy Sochan has been ruled out. I’ll operate under the assumption that these two will be good to go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. Johnson can be extremely hard to trust due to his volatility but gets a great matchup here and we know he has some upside. Jones ended up missing their last game, so make sure he’s a full go here, but would look like a solid mid-range option if he’s able to return. Jakob Poeltl is incredibly hard to project due to his minutes’ volatility as of late but has at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is too cheap if the minutes are there. Then guys like Josh Richardson and Keita Bates-Diop make sense as roster fillers but would look better if either Johnson or Jones ends up sitting. From the Bulls, we kind of know the deal with this team by now, the production starts and ends with the big three in this lineup. Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are all in solid form as of late. It can be hard to predict which of the three will have the big game and who will have the dud on a nightly basis, however. They all had nice games last time out, but more often than not, one of them has a down game… but good luck predicting which one it will be. They all look good at their respective price tags in a great matchup. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso who have been playing well, but I can’t say I want to prioritize either of them. Hopefully, they unload a piece or two from this team before the trade deadline to make them a bit more interesting.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jakob Poeltl, Josh Richardson, Keita Bates-Diop, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
Sacramento Kings @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -5.5
Starting with the Kings, the status of De’Aaron Fox is unknown at this time, but considering he’s been out for their last few games due to personal reasons, I’m going to think he comes back here. If he’s out again, it would be mostly guys like Davion Mitchell, Terence Davis, and Malik Monk that would benefit. With Fox back, or at least how I’m operating, those guys aren’t exactly in play… outside of Monk who would still be a GPP option. Fox will look great here in a good matchup with a Houston team that isn’t playing any defense. Domantas Sabonis had a rough go of it last night but is averaging 64.4 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Rockets this season, so obviously, something about the matchup sets up well for him. Then the group of Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Kevin Huerter all make sense as lineup fillers in a good matchup. From the Rockets, Jalen Green returned last time out and played just 22 minutes due to getting smacked around by the Thunder. I don’t imagine he’s on any sort of minutes restriction and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. They’ll continue to be without Kevin Porter Jr., however, while Eric Gordon should be back in action here. Below is how this team operates with Porter Jr. and Gordon off of the court this season:
- Jalen Green – 30.7% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 24.3% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- KJ Martin – 17.4% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Jabari Smith – 21.5% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 22.4% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
I would expect Daishen Nix moves back to the bench with Green and Gordon back in there, so we can hop off that train. Both Green and Sengun are going to look like great options and would-be guys I get a bunch of in this one. Then KJ Martin and Jabari Smith make plenty of sense in that mid-range and both have multi-position eligibility on DraftKings (Smith is PF only on FanDuel).
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Alperen Sengun
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Jalen Green, Eric Gordon, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Eric Gordon
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -9.5
Starting with the Mavs, they’re going to be pretty shorthanded here with Luka Doncic already out and then sending away Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith in the Kyrie Irving deal. Kyrie won’t be available in this one but is expected to make his debut on Wednesday. Christian Wood has a chance at returning here, but he’s been out for a few weeks, so we’d need to make sure he’s not limited by any means. I would expect guys like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Josh Green to pick up the offensive slack and probably a guy like Jaden Hardy as well… if you’ve been reading my article all season, you know how much I love that kids’ game. Hardaway and Green will look the best and are both averaging over a fantasy point per minute with Luka and Dinwiddie off of the court this season… but Hardy makes for an interesting GPP flyer. Then guys like Dwight Powell and Reggie Bullock aren’t sexy options, but they should play all the minutes they can handle here. I will say, if Wood is announced as active and isn’t restricted, he’s going to look solid as well. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen was a core play last time out and he was fine, but his price tag has certainly come up which makes it a bit harder to get to him here, but he’ll still look like a solid GPP option. The same thing can be said for Jordan Clarkson, but he’s also been in good form and the matchup doesn’t scare me against the Mavs B-team. Walker Kessler has at least 45 FanDuel points in two of his last three but had a dud last time out. I think he’s a fine GPP option here in his price range. Kelly Olynyk got his minutes back last time out but isn’t a guy I’m running out to play, he’d make more sense as a tournament option as well. It wouldn’t surprise me if they just left Jarred Vanderbilt out for this game as well, it feels like he’s all but traded already, so why risk it with his back injury. Mike Conley has been in good form with at least 30 DraftKings points in four straight games and makes sense in all formats as well.
5-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr., Josh Green, Christian Wood (if not limited)
4-star play: Jaden Hardy, Dwight Powell, Reggie Bullock, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson
Deeper Value: Jaden Hardy
GPP Sleeper: Jaden Hardy, Reggie Bullock, Kelly Olynyk, Malik Beasley
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.0
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a core play for me on Saturday night and ended up crushing in three quarters. The blowout kept him from seeing fourth-quarter run but he is going to look great yet again in this one. He sees a nice increase in his rates with Lu Dort off of the court, as odd as it sounds. He has a 39.0% usage rate and 1.65 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season and gets a great matchup against the Warriors. Josh Giddey also kept it rolling and now has at least 44 DraftKings points in three straight games. I do like going right back to Jalen Williams, he looked great last time these two teams met, but is probably more of a tournament guy due to some volatility. Kenrich Williams is never a sexy option but gets the job done more times than not, especially as of late with Dort and Pokusevski out… I have no issue going right back to him as well. Then whoever starts between Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins are pretty desperate options for your lineup and probably not guys I’ll get to based on how bad they are on a point-per-minute basis. From the Warriors, they’ll be without Steph Curry for the near future and Jordan Poole will slide into that starting point guard slot while Kevon Looney has worked his way back into the starting lineup as well. Below is how this team operates with Curry off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 34.8% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Klay Thompson – 27.4% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Andrew Wiggins – 23.8% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Draymond Green – 11.5% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Kevon Looney – 10.3% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
Poole and Klay see the biggest rates increase as well as Wiggins which makes sense, Green and Looney aren’t big usage guys in the first place. I have no issue with any of these guys, they’re not really priced for Curry to be out, so there is some meat on the bone here.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jordan Poole
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kenrich Williams, Kevon Looney
Milwaukee Bucks @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -5.0
Starting with the Bucks, Khris Middleton is slowly getting his minutes up and it would not shock me to see him back in the starting lineup tonight. I know I’ve said that for like a week straight now, but the rust feels like it’s fallen off. The price tag has become interesting over the last few games and I don’t hate taking a shot on him in this one… as we’ve come to find out, SF can be a tough position to fill. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a massive game last time out and is averaging 73.2 DraftKings points in his last five games. He’s a top spend-up option on the slate. Jrue Holiday had a tough game against the Heat but is a fine option here in a nice matchup with this Blazers defense. Brook Lopez looks like a nice option in this one as well, he hasn’t been great over his last couple of games but the Blazers are bleeding fantasy points to opposing big men. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles with Portis out, Connaughton has been in better form, but both are fine options. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard bounced back nicely on Saturday night against the Bulls. He has a 35.6% usage rate and 1.54 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out for a while, so I would expect Drew Eubanks will get the start in Nurkic’s spot even after getting banged up last game. He has an 11.1% usage rate and 0.86 fantasy points per minute with Nurkic off of the court this season and was fine relative to his price tag last night. Anfernee Simons came down to Earth last time out but he’s still been consistent as of late and makes sense as a secondary option. Josh Hart kept it rolling as well, he’s another guy that will garner some ownership just based on the position, but it’s warranted at this price tag. Lastly, I would expect Jerami Grant to benefit from Nurkic being out moving forward and should continue to play big minutes.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Damian Lillard
4-star play: Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Jerami Grant, Drew Eubanks, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart
Deeper Value: Trendon Watford
GPP Sleeper: Khris Middleton, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Anfernee Simons, Trendon Watford
NBA Lock of the Day: Tim Hardaway Jr. (DK – $6.4k; FD – $5.2k)
I touched on it in the game breakdown, but the Mavs made a big splash by going out and acquiring Kyrie Irving on Sunday. In turn, they gave up Spencer Dinwiddie and Dorian Finney-Smith, none of the players involved in the deal will be available in this one along with Luka Doncic who remains out with an injury. That leaves a gapping hole in this offense for some playmaking and Hardaway Jr. will need to be that guy. He has a 29.5% usage rate and 1.02 fantasy points per minute with Luka and Dinwiddie off of the court this season and should play all the minutes he can handle. His price tag did come up on DraftKings, but not enough, and that FanDuel price tag is just wrong considering his role. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
