Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/4:
Feb 2, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) looks to get around Los Angeles Clippers forward Paul George (13) in the third quarter at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few VIP Member wins – “Kanger” took home over $43k last week including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet while “NEZZY78” grabbed 2nd place on Saturday night winning $25k – congrats guys!
Los Angeles Clippers @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 219.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -3.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has been in great form as of late averaging 50.5 DraftKings points per game in his last five games, and will look solid again in this one. Paul George has lost some production during this Kawhi run but the price tag is fair enough in a good matchup, this Knicks defense doesn’t scare me. Ivica Zubac was eaten alive by Giannis last time out but he was still able to produce from a DFS perspective and has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. I don’t want to risk it with him in cash games, but he’s firmly in play as a tournament option. Norman Powell has been good over his last two games as well and would be a fine GPP option, but I can never get that guy right for whatever reason. The rest of this team is pretty meh on a big slate… unless you want to ride out the last game with Marcus Morris. From the Knicks, Jalen Brunson was a surprise inactive last time out and is questionable again in this one. He missed with an illness, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. The price tag is way up on him after a nice game against the Lakers last time out. Julius Randle was able to bounce back with Brunson out last time and would be a guy I have no issues going right back to in this one. The same can be said for RJ Barrett and his SF eligibility will increase his ownership simply due to how much of a wasteland that position has been as of late. Then I would imagine we continue to see Jericho Sims start in place of Mitchell Robinson while Isaiah Hartenstein has been the better producer over the last few games. The minutes are trending up for Hartenstein and it wouldn’t surprise me if they rode the hot hand again with him here.
5-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Julius Randle
4-star play: Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Jericho Sims, Isaiah Hartenstein, Immanuel Quickley
Phoenix Suns @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -4.5
Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul bounced back and was fine last time out after a terrible game against the Hawks. I have no issue going back to him in this one while Devin Booker is still out. The spot looks great for Deandre Ayton as well, he has a 27.3% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Mikal Bridges kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 32 DraftKings points in four straight and looks like a solid option yet again in this one. Then the only other guy I’d have interest in here would be Cam Johnson coming off of a game where he was inactive for injury management. That said, the minutes are coming up and we’ve seen him produce nicely since returning from injury. From the Pistons, Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey should stick around in the starting lineup again, and would expect more of the same here. They’ve both performed nicely as starters over the last week or so and would-be guys I have no issue with going right back to in this one. Bojan Bogdanovic is never really a guy I prioritize much but it makes sense here, as maybe the Pistons showcase him a bit leading up to next week’s deadline. Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes are more GPP options than anything, but Ivey has looked better without Killian in the starting lineup next to him if we exclude their last game. Then Jalen Duren should continue to see the majority of the center minutes and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one.
5-star play: Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Alec Burks, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Johnson, Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic
Portland Trail Blazers @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -4.5
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard came down to Earth last night but has been incredible as of late and I love this matchup. He has a 33.9% usage rate and 1.54 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out for a while, so I would expect Drew Eubanks will get the start in Nurkic’s spot and has an 11.0% usage rate and 0.86 fantasy points per minute with Nurkic off of the court this season and was fine relative to his price tag last night. Anfernee Simons took advantage of a down night from Dame last night and will look like a fine secondary option in a great matchup in this one. Josh Hart bounced back in a big way after letting down as mega chalk against the Grizzlies, he’s a solid option in all formats as well. Lastly, I would expect Jerami Grant to benefit from Nurkic being out moving forward and should continue to play big minutes. From the Bulls, we kind of know the deal with this team by now, the production starts and ends with the big three in this lineup. Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are all in solid form as of late. It can be hard to predict which of the three will have the big game and who will have the dud on a nightly basis, however. DeRozan and Vucevic were the guys you wanted last time out while LaVine had a down game but that can change on a game-to-game basis. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso who have been playing well, but I can’t say I want to prioritize either of them. Williams was frustrating in that last game, but I have no issue going back to him assuming he’s good to go here.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Drew Eubanks, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Josh Hart, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine
Deeper Value: Drew Eubanks
GPP Sleeper: Josh Hart, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -10.0
We saw this matchup a few days ago, so we have a bit of a sample size to go off of in this one. Starting with the Rockets, it sounds like Jalen Green has a chance to play here while Eric Gordon and Kevin Porter Jr. will be out. I’m going to operate under the assumption that Green is good to go, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. Below is how this team operates with Porter Jr. and Gordon off of the court this season:
- Jalen Green – 32.8% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Josh Christopher – 24.8% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- KJ Martin – 18.3% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Jabari Smith – 25.3% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 22.5% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
I would expect Daishen Nix moves back to the bench with Green back in there, so we can hop off that train. Both Green and Sengun are going to look like great options and would-be guys I get a bunch of in this one. Then KJ Martin and Jabari Smith make plenty of sense in that mid-range and both have multi-position eligibility on DraftKings (Smith is PF only on FanDuel). From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to look great yet again in this one. He sees a nice increase in his rates with Lu Dort off of the court, as odd as it sounds. He has a 39.0% usage rate and 1.62 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season and gets a great matchup against the Rockets. Josh Giddey is a fine option, but probably not a priority by any means. I do like going right back to Jalen Williams, he looked great last time out and the matchup is awesome. Kenrich Williams is never a sexy option but gets the job done more times than not, especially as of late with Dort and Pokusevski out… I have no issue going right back to him as well. Then whoever starts between Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins are pretty desperate options for your lineup and probably not guys I’ll get to based on how bad they are on a point-per-minute basis.
5-star play: Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Jalen Williams, Josh Giddey
Deeper Value: Josh Christopher
GPP Sleeper: Josh Christopher, Tari Eason, Kenrich Williams, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Miami Heat @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -5.5
Starting with the Heat, they’ll be without Kyle Lowry and Victor Oladipo while Gabe Vincent comes in as questionable. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Heat are shopping Lowry a little bit before the deadline next week and he’s been pretty terrible as of late, so it makes sense to get a day off here. Assuming Vincent is able to play, I would imagine he’s the starting point guard tonight. He’ll look like a nice value option in a pace-up spot here. Jimmy Butler has not been great and is averaging just 27.9 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Bucks this season. The price tag is extremely intriguing, however, especially on DraftKings. Bam Adebayo bounced back in a big way last time out and has been good against Milwaukee this season and will look like a nice option here. Tyler Herro is a guy I like for GPPs at a nice price tag in a good matchup, he bounced back nicely last time out. Then guys like Max Strus and Caleb Martin will look like solid filler pieces with Lowry and Oladipo out. From the Bucks, Khris Middleton is slowly getting his minutes up and it would not shock me to see him back in the starting lineup tonight. The price tag has become interesting over the last few games and I don’t hate taking a shot on him in this one… as we’ve come to find out, SF can be a tough position to fill. Giannis Antetokounmpo had a massive game last time out and is averaging 69.6 DraftKings points in his last five games. He’s a top spend-up option on the slate. Jrue Holiday had a tough game against the Clippers but is a fine option here, but I don’t love the matchup in a pace-down spot against a good defense. Brook Lopez looks like a nice option in this one as well, he’s been sneaky good as of late outside of a tough game last time out. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles with Portis out, Connaughton has been in better form, but both are fine options.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Gabe Vincent, Caleb Martin, Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Max Strus, Caleb Martin, Khris Middleton, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles
Dallas Mavericks @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -10.0
Starting with the Mavericks, they’ll be without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood while Spencer Dinwiddie comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that Dinwiddie is good to go and will look like a top option on this slate at his price tag. Below is how this team operates with Luka and Wood off of the court this season:
- Spencer Dinwiddie – 35.5% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Tim Hardaway Jr. – 25.8% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Dorian Finney-Smith – 13.5% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Josh Green – 15.7% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Dwight Powell – 14.5% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
I would expect this is what the starting lineup looks like and all of these guys will look like solid options at their respective price tags. Dinwiddie would obviously be my favorite of the group, but Hardaway sees a nice usage bump as well. The rest of these ancillary wings will play a ton of minutes but it’s tough to determine which one will have a nice game on a nightly basis, but my favorite of them would be Finney-Smith. From the Warriors, Klay Thompson and Draymond Green come into this one as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption they’re at full health tonight. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock for updates. Steph Curry had a down game last time out and gets a pace-down spot against the Mavs here, he’d be more of a GPP guy for me in this one. I’m not the biggest fan of Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson starting next to each other, but they both have ceilings and look like solid options for tournaments. Then Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green are fine options as well at their price tags, this team isn’t all that exciting to me tonight.
5-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie
4-star play: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Steph Curry, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: Josh Green, Reggie Bullock, Jaden Hardy (if Dinwiddie is out)
GPP Sleeper: Jaden Hardy, Josh Green, Dwight Powell, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins
Atlanta Hawks @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Den -6.0
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young has been good over his last couple of games and looks like a solid option yet again in this one. Denver hasn’t been all that great to opposing backcourts defensively. Dejounte Murray is a fine option but feels a bit overpriced for me, but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and as I mentioned, it’s a nice matchup. Clint Capela will have his hands full with Jokic down low in this one, but if he’s able to stay out of foul trouble they’ll need his minutes and size. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another guy that came down to Earth with Trae back and would be more of a GPP option for me in this one. The same can be said for De’Andre Hunter and John Collins, just not guys I can see prioritizing in this one. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to be right up there with Giannis as the top spend-up option on the slate in a great matchup. He comes in as questionable, so it’s obviously massive news that we’ll need, but he played last time out, so I would imagine he’s good to go here. Jamal Murray had a huge game last time out and now has at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last five and will look like a good option in all formats again in this one. Michael Porter Jr. has returned to his full role after missing a few games and will look like a fine tournament option… he’d see a boost if Gordon is forced to miss, as he comes in as questionable. Speaking of Aaron Gordon he’s been in solid form and looks like a nice option if he can give it a go… he’s a guy I’m not as confident will play due to sitting out the last game as well.
5-star play: Trae Young, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown
NBA Lock of the Day: Spencer Dinwiddie (DK – $7.1k; FD – $8.0k)
He comes in with a questionable tag, but clearly, I’m operating under the assumption that he’s good to go. The Mavs will be without Luka Doncic tonight which opens up a ton of usage in this offense. Dinwiddie has a 35.5% usage rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute with Luka off of the court this season. Not to mention, it’s a great pace-up matchup for the Mavs against the fastest team in the league while the Mavs are the second-slowest team in the league. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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