Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/3:
Feb 2, 2023; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) in the second half against the Los Angeles Lakers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few VIP Member wins – “Kanger” took home over $43k last week including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet while “NEZZY78” grabbed 2nd place on Saturday night winning $25k – congrats guys!
Portland Trail Blazers @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Was -4.0
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 72 DraftKings points in two of his last four games and has been on a heater over the last two weeks. Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled out while Jerami Grant comes in as questionable in this one, he would see a nice boost with Nurkic out if he’s able to give it a go. I would expect Drew Eubanks will get the start in Nurkic’s spot and has a 10.9% usage rate and 0.86 fantasy points per minute with Nurkic off of the court this season. Anfernee Simons is a fine secondary option but his ceiling is capped with Lillard taking up most of that potential. Then Josh Hart was extremely chalky last time out and dudded, so congrats if you were able to find a different cheap SF option because you probably got some leverage on the field. He’ll look like a fine option again here and should continue to play a good chunk of minutes. From the Wizards, Daniel Gafford missed their last game but had a massive game against the Pelicans in his last game out there. I wouldn’t expect a 50-burger again, but he’s a great per-minute producer when he’s out there. Deni Avdija has been great even with Kristaps Porzingis back in the lineup, the price tag has come up, however. Speaking of Kristaps, he bounced back in a big way last time out and is a guy I don’t mind going right back to in this one. Kyle Kuzma will take a hit with Kristaps back in there and is probably more of a secondary option, but the matchup is nice at the very least. Bradley Beal looked good in that game and still has a nice price tag, we haven’t really seen a ceiling game from him in a while, but I think he makes sense again in this one. Then Monte Morris makes sense as a roster filler.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Drew Eubanks
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart, Daniel Gafford, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal
Deeper Value: Drew Eubanks
GPP Sleeper: Josh Hart, Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford, Bradley Beal, Monte Morris, Kyle Kuzma
Sacramento Kings @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -2.5
Starting with the Kings, they’ll be without De’Aaron Fox as he tends to some personal stuff off of the court. I would expect we see Davion Mitchell start in his place and will be a great value option in all formats given the matchup. Below is how this team operates with Fox off of the court this season:
- Davion Mitchell – 16.0% usage rate; 0.71 fpm
- Kevin Huerter – 21.6% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Keegan Murray – 16.7% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Harrison Barnes – 20.8% usage rate; 0.84 fpm
- Domantas Sabonis – 22.9% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
- Malik Monk – 30.4% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team while Monk is probably more of a tournament guy, he’s going to dominate looks and usage while he’s in there. The rates aren’t all that crazy for Davion Mitchell but he’s going to be hard to ignore at that price tag. Domantas Sabonis bounced back in a big way last time out and we just saw Anthony Davis destroy this Pacers frontcourt last night. That group of Huerter, Murray, and Barnes are all solid secondary options in that mid-range. From the Pacers, it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw Tyrese Haliburton rest after his first game back last night, but that’s just reckless speculation, so we’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. He clearly wasn’t limited in playing 36 minutes last night and produced nicely, he’s going to look great again in this one. We can continue to jump off of the TJ McConnell train at this price tag, while guys like Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Chris Duarte, and Aaron Nesmith will take a hit as well. I’m not as concerned with these guys since the minutes will still be there and/or their price tags aren’t as inflated as McConnell’s but they’ll move to be secondary and GPP options. I do like going to Myles Turner again, however, he dropped 48.75 DraftKings points last night and gets a great matchup in this one.
5-star play: Davion Mitchell, Domantas Sabonis, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Kevin Huerter, Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, Aaron Nesmith
Deeper Value: Davion Mitchell
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Aaron Nesmith, Bennedict Mathurin
Charlotte Hornets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Det -1.5
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball came back to Earth last night and was also ejected late in the fourth quarter. I have no issue going right back to him here, any time he’s under $10k in a nice matchup, I’ll have an interest. Terry Rozier has been in good form and gets a similarly great matchup, he’s averaging 41.3 DraftKings points per game over his last six games. PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee have both been sneaky good as of late and are guys I’d go right back to the well with at their current price tags. I’m willing to overlook Washington’s rough game last night due to his recent form. Then guys like Gordon Hayward and Jalen McDaniels will be GPP-only options. From the Pistons, Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey stuck around in the starting lineup again last time out, and would expect more of the same here. They’ve both performed nicely as starters over the last week or so and would-be guys I have no issue with going right back to in this one. Bojan Bogdanovic is never really a guy I prioritize much but makes sense here, he has at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes are more GPP options than anything, but Ivey has looked better without Killian in the starting lineup next to him if we exclude their last game. Then Jalen Duren should continue to see the majority of the center minutes and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Alec Burks, Saddiq Bey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, Jalen McDaniels, Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey
Phoenix Suns @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 222.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -10.0
Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul had a pretty brutal game last time out in a nice matchup with the Hawks. This isn’t a great bounce-back spot against a good Celtics team either… that said, people will likely be off of him due to that game, so I don’t mind going back to him in this one. He’s been good outside of that dud last time out. The spot looks great for Deandre Ayton as well, he has a 28.9% usage rate and 1.29 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Mikal Bridges kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 36 DraftKings points in three straight and looks like a solid yet again in this one. Then the only other guy I’d have interest in here would be Cam Johnson coming off of a tough game. That said, the minutes are coming up and we’ve seen him produce nicely since returning from injury. From the Celtics, they’ll continue to be without Marcus Smart while Robert Williams was able to return without any sort of restriction last time out. He only saw 19 minutes due to the blowout, but I would expect he’s right around 30 in this one and will look like a nice mid-range center option. The price tag on Jayson Tatum is massive but he’s been in great form and is a guy I don’t mind getting to in this one as a spend-up option. Jaylen Brown came down to Earth last time out but has been in good form as well, he’s a bit too scoring-dependent for me, but I won’t talk anyone off of going to him in this one. Malcolm Brogdon is probably the biggest benefactor from Smart being out, he has a 25.9% usage rate and 1.18 fantasy points per minute with Smart off of the court this season. The issue with Brogdon is he doesn’t see his second big rotation in blowouts like we saw last time, so make note of that in a game with a 10-point spread. Derrick White should benefit as well and has been in good form. Then we can round the team out with Al Horford who really hasn’t been a guy I’ve gotten to a whole lot this season and I probably won’t start here.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Cam Johnson, Derrick White, Al Horford
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Orlando Magic @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Min -5.0
Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero has been pretty solid as of late and helps fill a pretty terrible SF position that we’ve seen over the last few weeks. His price tag is nice on both sites and he has SF/PF eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option but does have at least 30 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Wendell Carter Jr. has been pretty meh over his last few games and is more of a tournament option here, but the price tag is certainly intriguing. Markelle Fultz is another guy that is fine, it’s hard to prioritize anyone from this team as they continue to get healthier. Then Cole Anthony is a GPP-only guy, his minutes and production are all over the place. From the Wolves, Anthony Edwards kept it rolling last time out and has at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and I love the matchup against this Magic defense. D’Angelo Russell bounced back after a down game against the Kings and is a guy I have no issue going back to here, he’s been extremely consistent over the last few weeks. Rudy Gobert was a surprise inactive last time which made Naz Reid a lock and load in all formats, so hopefully, you were able to late swap onto him. Gobert comes in as questionable again in this one and will look like a solid option if he’s able to play otherwise we go right back to Naz. Kyle Anderson is never a sexy option, but he makes plenty of sense as a lineup filler with SF/PF eligibility. Then a guy like Jaden McDaniels would be more of a GPP dart than anything.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid
Toronto Raptors @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -7.5
Starting with the Raptors, OG Anunoby will continue to be out which means we should see Precious Achiuwa right back in the starting lineup. Achiuwa has been great in his place and is averaging 33.9 DraftKings points per game over his last five games and will be a guy I go right back to in this one. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam continues to struggle relative to his price tag even with playing massive minutes. That said, this is a great spot for him to bounce back in so I think he looks like a nice option here especially if people are going to be afraid of those game logs. Fred VanVleet blew up against the Jazz going for a 34-point triple-double, he’ll look like a great option yet again in this one. Scottie Barnes has been extremely consistent as of late as well and looks like a nice secondary option. Then Gary Trent Jr. will continue to play big minutes as well but feels like he’s priced right about where he should be, so more of a tournament guy. From the Rockets, they’ll continue to be without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green in this one. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Daishen Nix – 13.7% usage rate; 0.66 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 27.3% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- KJ Martin – 18.9% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Jabari Smith Jr. – 22.3% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 22.8% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
This is what I project the starting five to look like and most of them are firmly in play as DFS options. I don’t think I’ll get a ton of Nix with that said even after a nice game last time out, we have similar value in better spots tonight. Alperen Sengun was a guy I was all over last time out and had a down game, I have no problem going right back to him in this one with the rate jumps he sees with Green and Porter out. KJ Martin and Jabari Smith look like similar options but the price tags are solid considering the matchup and with Green and KPJ out. Then Eric Gordon was a core play for me last time out and really sees a nice boost with these guys out, I’ll go right back to the well with him here.
5-star play: Precious Achiuwa, Fred VanVleet, Alperen Sengun
4-star play: Pascal Siakam, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Eric Gordon
Deeper Value: Daishen Nix
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Jae’Sean Tate
Philadelphia 76ers @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -10.0
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid comes in questionable again here after playing last time out with that same questionable tag, I’ll assume he plays due to that again here. He’s looked good enough over his last few to be a nice option again in a great matchup in this one. James Harden bounced back nicely last time while dropping a 50-burger on the Magic, he’s playing a ton of minutes and we know he also has a nice floor/ceiling combo. Then guys like De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, and Tyrese Maxey will all be GPP guys to round out the team. It’s hard to prioritize any of them when Embiid and Harden are both in there dominating the usage and looks. From the Spurs, they’ll be without Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones in this one along with Devin Vassell who has been out for the last few weeks. I would expect to see guys like Malaki Branham and Keita Bates-Diop in the starting lineup and are fine value options, but we won’t have any shortage of value on this slate. I ended up with a bunch of Jakob Poeltl last time out and will be a guy I don’t mind going back to here again, although he does get hurt in blowouts, so more of a tournament option. Keldon Johnson has looked good over his last few games and will need to do everything in this offense with Jones out. Then we can round this team out with Zach Collins who would be the benefactor if Poeltl either gets in foul trouble or loses minutes in a blowout.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: James Harden, Keldon Johnson, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: Malaki Branham, Keita Bates-Diop
GPP Sleeper: De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, Malaki Branham, Keita Bates-Diop, Zach Collins
Atlanta Hawks @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 241.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -1.5
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young returned last time out and was fine against the Suns, but did lose some minutes due to them blowing the roof off of Phoenix. This is a great matchup and is a guy I like going right back to. Dejounte Murray came down to Earth with Trae back last time out and is more of a secondary option again in this one, we know the minutes will be there for him. Clint Capela was hurt by the blowout last time out as well but gets a nice bounce-back matchup here. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another guy that came down to Earth with Trae back and would be more of a GPP option for me in this one. The same can be said for De’Andre Hunter and John Collins, just not guys I can see prioritizing in this one. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen bounced back in a big way last time out and I love the matchup and price tag again here, he’s going to be a great option in this price range. The same thing can be said for Jordan Clarkson, but I can’t imagine I get a whole lot of him on a slate of this size. Walker Kessler has at least 45 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and would be a solid option yet again in this one. They did get Kelly Olynyk back last time out but was on a pretty heavy minutes restriction, I don’t think he’s playable until he gets his minutes back to normal. Mike Conley has been in good form with at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five and makes sense in all formats as well. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt would be GPP options at best to round out this team.
5-star play: Trae Young, Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
NBA Lock of the Day: Davion Mitchell (DK – $3.0k; FD – $3.8k)
The Kings will be without De’Aaron Fox in this one so I would expect Mitchell to get the start in his place. He has multi-position eligibility on DraftKings which makes things nice for roster construction but he’s firmly in play on FanDuel at this price tag as well. He averaged 33.34 DraftKings/31.97 FanDuel points per game with Fox out last season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
