Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/2:
Feb 1, 2023; Memphis, Tennessee, USA; Memphis Grizzlies guard Ja Morant (12) moves to the basket during the second half against the Portland Trail Blazers at FedExForum. Mandatory Credit: Petre Thomas-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few VIP Member wins – “Kanger” took home over $43k last week including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet while “NEZZY78” grabbed 2nd place on Saturday night winning $25k – congrats guys!
Los Angeles Lakers @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Lal -1.0
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Lakers, I would expect LeBron James and Anthony Davis to play in this one despite their questionable tags. Davis has played at least 34 minutes in back-to-back games, so it appears he’s back to being a full-go and is too cheap at this price tag. A healthy Anthony Davis at under $10k sounds great to me in a good matchup. Davis being back will hurt the rates for pretty much the rest of the team, so I’ll be underweight on guys like Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, and Russell Westbrook. I do still think we can get to LeBron James although his price tag is massive he has at least 62 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and the matchup is great. Lastly, Rui Hachimura wasn’t able to take advantage with both of these guys out a few games ago but go figure, he has a nice game next to both of them in the starting lineup last time out. He’s a GPP option if you need a roster filler. From the Pacers, it sounds like Tyrese Haliburton is going to be able to play again in this one after sitting out for the last 10 games. I would think he has some sort of minutes restriction but wouldn’t surprise me if he floats around the 30-minute mark. Haliburton being back is going to hurt the rates for a lot of the guys we’ve been playing and kind of takes them out of play as they’re priced for him to still be out. We can fully jump off of the TJ McConnell train at this price tag, while guys like Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Chris Duarte, and Andrew Nembhard will take a hit as well. I’m not as concerned with these guys since the minutes will still be there and/or their price tags aren’t as inflated as McConnell’s but they’ll move to be secondary and GPP options. I do like going to Myles Turner again, however, he dropped 45.25 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. Lastly, for Haliburton, I don’t think we can go right back to him in his first game back but if you want a sprinkle at a cheap price tag in a large field tournament, go for it.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James
4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Rui Hachimura, Russell Westbrook, Buddy Hield, Myles Turner, Tyrese Haliburton, Bennedict Mathurin
Memphis Grizzlies @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -6.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Steven Adams again while Desmond Bane ended up playing last night after being questionable all day, so I would imagine he’s back in the starting lineup yet again tonight. Speaking of the starting lineup, we saw Brandon Clarke move back to the bench last night in favor of Xavier Tillman who got the start at the five. Tillman was solid in 28 minutes of action but will have his hands full with Allen and Mobley down low in this one. I don’t hate getting to him at a cheap price tag here. Ja Morant has at least 58 DraftKings points in four straight games and is a top spend-up option on the slate even in a tough matchup. Then we get to Jaren Jackson Jr. who is going to be a GPP guy, we know he struggles with foul issues but the ceiling is certainly there as we saw a couple of games ago when he dropped a 50-burger on the Pacers. Finally, Dillon Brooks probably is a no-go from me with Bane in there but he’s still going to play big minutes. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell bounced back last time out after a dud in his return against the Clippers. The matchup wasn’t great either, so I’m more than willing to go back to him at a cheap price tag against a faster-paced Grizzlies team. Darius Garland has seen his production trend in the wrong direction and is going to take a hit with Mitchell back in there as well. Evan Mobley has been in great form as of late and would be a guy I go back to as well, he’s playing all the minutes he can handle. Jarrett Allen continues to feel underpriced and gets a similarly nice matchup to Mobley with Adams out. We can jump off of Caris LeVert as he would move back to the bench with Mitchell back in the starting lineup.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Xavier Tillman (if starting)
4-star play: Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: Xavier Tillman
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks, Darius Garland
Miami Heat @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 214.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Heat, Jimmy Butler has been fine as of late, but nothing that has made you feel like your lineups are dead if you don’t have him. He’ll look fine again here as his price tag continues to dip. Bam Adebayo had a tough matchup against Allen and Mobley last time out and gets a much better bounce-back spot in this one. I have no issue going right back to the well with him here. Tyler Herro is a guy I like for GPPs at a nice price tag in a good matchup, but not a guy I think we can trust for cash games. Then guys like Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, and Caleb Martin are probably in play as secondary options due to the size of the slate, but they’re not guys I’m all that excited to prioritize by any means… boy did Lowry look old last time out. From the Knicks, Julius Randle was kind of bailed out by overtime last time out against the Lakers. He still didn’t have a great game relative to his price tag, but he would’ve had a pretty bad game if it weren’t for overtime. I can’t say I love the matchup here but we know he’s going to play massive minutes and makes sense as a secondary option. The price tag on Jalen Brunson has gone down a little bit but he’s bounced back nicely over his last couple of games and dropped a 50-burger last time out. The same can be said for RJ Barrett and his SF eligibility will increase his ownership simply due to how much of a wasteland that position has been as of late. Then I would imagine we continue to see Jericho Sims start in place of Mitchell Robinson while Isaiah Hartenstein was the guy you wanted last time out. The minutes are trending up for Hartenstein and it wouldn’t surprise me if they rode the hot hand again with him here.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: Isaiah Hartenstein
GPP Sleeper: Victor Oladipo, Kyle Lowry, Caleb Martin, Jerich Sims, Isaiah Hartenstein
Charlotte Hornets @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -6.0
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball was a core play for me last time out against the Bucks and he did not disappoint with a massive triple-double. I have no issue going right back to the well with him in this one. the matchup is great and we know the upside is there. Terry Rozier has been in good form and gets a similarly great matchup, he’s averaging 41.8 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. PJ Washington and Mason Plumlee have both been sneaky good as of late and are guys I’d go right back to the well with at their current price tags. Then guys like Gordon Hayward and Jalen McDaniels will be GPP-only options. From the Bulls, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are all in solid form as of late… last time out they all had solid games and are good options yet again. It can be hard to predict which of the three will have the big game and who will have the dud on a nightly basis, however. LaVine and Vucevic were the guys you wanted last time out while DeRozan had a down game but that can change on a game-to-game basis. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso who have been playing well, but I can’t say I want to prioritize either of them. Williams has been in pretty good form with at least 26 DraftKings points in three of his last five games.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gordon Hayward, Jalen McDaniels, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
New Orleans Pelicans @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -4.5
Starting with the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram has seen his minutes trend in the right direction and has at least 32 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. I don’t think he’s a priority by any means, but he’s finally playable as I would imagine that minutes restriction he was on is all but gone. CJ McCollum will take a hit with Ingram back in but his price tag has been quick to adjust, he makes sense as a secondary option as well. Jonas Valanciunas is another tournament option who has been a bit volatile as of late. That said, this Mavs frontcourt is extremely banged up and can be beaten by opposing big men. Then Trey Murphy has been in solid form as of late and is playing all the minutes he can handle, he’s in that Herb Jones group of players that looks solid to round out rosters with… speaking of Jones, he had a nice game last time out, but I don’t think I would chase it. From the Mavs, it kind of begins and ends with Luka Doncic for this team, he bounced back in a big way last time out and is going to look like a great option yet again in this one. I just have a hard time getting to Spencer Dinwiddie at this price tag anytime Luka is in, he has to fight for usage and oftentimes doesn’t win that fight. Tim Hardaway Jr. is fine at this price tag but is in a similar usage boat as Dinwiddie. Then guys like Dorian Finney-Smith and Dwight Powell are not sexy options by any means but they’ve helped fill the void of Christian Wood and Maxi Kleber and should continue to play big minutes here.
5-star play: Luka Doncic
4-star play: Brandon Ingram, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Tim Hardaway Jr., Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Den -12.0
Starting with the Warriors, it sounds like they’re going to rest their main guys and that’s certainly reflected in the spread. I would expect Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, and Draymond Green to be out here, while Jordan Poole is a bit more of a wildcard, but my hunch tells me he sits as well. Keep an eye out for a starting lineup but we will likely see guys like Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga, Anthony Lamb, Moses Moody, and Kevon Looney in the starting five… give or take a name or two. Kuminga is going to be my favorite option at his current price tag, he has a 19.8% usage rate and 0.82 fantasy points per minute with these main guys off of the court, and looks like a great value option. I have no issue with DiVincenzo either in the mid-range, the rest of the team will be secondary guys but again, keep an eye on that starting lineup. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to be right up there with Luka as the top spend-up option on the slate. He should be able to do whatever he wants against the Warriors’ B-team but I do worry about blowout a bit here. Jamal Murray had a huge game last time out and now has at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last five and will look like a good option in all formats again in this one. Michael Porter Jr. has returned to his full role after missing a few games and will look like a fine tournament option… he’d see a boost if Gordon is forced to miss, as he comes in as questionable. Speaking of Aaron Gordon he’s been in solid form and looks like a nice option if he can give it a go.
5-star play: Jonathan Kuminga, Donte DiVincenzo, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Anthony Lamb, Moses Moody, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: Anthony Lamb, Moses Moody, Kevon Looney
GPP Sleeper: Moses Moody, Ty Jerome, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown
Los Angeles Clippers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -4.5
Starting with the Clippers, Kawhi Leonard has been in great form as of late averaging 51.6 DraftKings points per game in his last four games, and gets a fast-paced matchup in this one. Paul George came down to Earth over his last few games but is a guy I would have no issue going right back to in this one. Ivica Zubac bounced back nicely last time out and they’ll need his size to handle Lopez and Giannis in the paint, so if he can stay out of foul trouble the minutes should be there, but that’s a big if. Norman Powell is probably more of a GPP option with both George and Kawhi back in there, but the minutes should be there. He bounced back last time out against the Bulls, however. The rest of this team is pretty meh on a big slate. From the Bucks, Khris Middleton is slowly getting his minutes up and it would not shock me to see him back in the starting lineup tonight. The price tag has become interesting over the last few games and I don’t hate taking a shot on him in this one… as we’ve come to find out, SF can be a tough position to fill. Giannis Antetokounmpo has bounced back in a big way over his last few games averaging 63.4 DraftKings points in his last five games. He’s a top spend-up option on the slate right there with Jokic and Luka. Jrue Holiday has seen his price come down over their last few games as this team has gotten healthier and looks like a fine option in all formats here. Brook Lopez looks like a nice option in this one as well, he’s been sneaky good as of late. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles with Portis out, Connaughton has been in better form, but both are fine options.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Khris Middleton (DraftKings), Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Pat Connaughton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles, Khris Middleton
NBA Lock of the Day: Jonathan Kuminga (DK – $3.7k; FD – $4.4k)
It sounds like the Warriors are going to rest their vets in this one which means we should see a cheap Jonathan Kuminga slide right into the starting lineup against the Nuggets. He’s a free square tonight assuming he’s in the starting five at this price tag, so don’t overthink it. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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