Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/28:
Feb 26, 2023; Portland, Oregon, USA; Portland Trail Blazers point guard Damian Lillard (0) shoots the ball past Houston Rockets small forward Jae’Sean Tate (8, left) during the second half at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 220.0
Vegas Spread: Tor -4.5
We’ll kick this slate off with the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan returns to Toronto in a distant revenge game here but hasn’t been a guy I’ve felt the need to get to all that much recently. Generally at least one of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Zach LaVine will have a big game and generally one will have a bad game, but good luck determining which that will be. I’ve been getting the most exposure to the cheapest of the three and I think that’s the best way to attack it. The rest of this team isn’t anything I think we need to prioritize, but guys like Patrick Williams or Alex Caruso make sense as last pieces in although I think we can do better on a big slate. From the Raptors, they come in pretty much full strength for the first time in a while. Jakob Poeltl has been a guy I’ve been getting a ton of as of late and his price tag hasn’t come up enough, he’s going to look like an elite option yet again. Pascal Siakam came down to Earth a bit last time out but this is a nice bounce-back spot for him, I have no issue going back to him in this one although he’ll lose some usage/opportunity with VanVleet back. Speaking of VanVleet, he’s missed their last few games due to personal reasons, so he shouldn’t be limited one bit here and is a fine option, but is priced way up. Scottie Barnes is going to play 35+ minutes but hasn’t been in the best form as of late, he’s more of a secondary option for me in this one. Then guys like Gary Trent Jr. and OG Anunoby are fine secondary options to round out this team.
5-star play: None
4-star play: DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, Jakob Poeltl, Pascal Siakam
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., OG Anunoby
Los Angeles Lakers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -9.0
Starting with the Lakers, it sounds like they’ll be without LeBron James for the next few games at the very least while D’Angelo Russell is doubtful for this game as well. I would expect to see Dennis Schroder back in the starting lineup for Russell while LeBron’s spot is up for grabs between guys like Troy Brown, Rui Hachimura, and Lonnie Walker. Below is how this team operates with LeBron (and Westbrook) off of the court this season:
- Dennis Schroder – 24.5% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Malik Beasley – 27.4% usage rate; 0.99 fpm (small sample)
- Troy Brown – 14.4% usage rate; 0.69 fpm
- Jarred Vanderbilt – 15.1% usage rate; 1.36 fpm (small sample)
- Anthony Davis – 30.4% usage rate; 1.49 fpm
Davis is the guy who stands out in this one while you can make a case for guys like Schroder, Beasley, and Vanderbilt… but Davis is the only real priority. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant had a tough go of it last time out but gets a great bounce-back spot in this one. There was some beef between this Lakers team earlier this season, so maybe there’s a little extra juice for Ja here. Jaren Jackson has provided us with the full Jaren Jackson experience as of late, showing off his floor/ceiling this week. He’ll have his hands full with Davis in this one but is a solid GPP option nonetheless due to that upside. We know Desmond Bane is going to continue his consistency and looks like a nice option in all formats as well. Brandon Clarke returned to the bench last time out, so probably not a guy I’ll get too much of at this price tag. Xavier Tillman started over him and I would expect the same to happen in this one, he makes sense as a mid-range center option. Then Dillon Brooks is a fine GPP option to round out the team but I imagine we can find better options on a nice-sized slate.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, Ja Morant
4-star play: Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson
Deeper Value: Troy Brown
GPP Sleeper: Troy Brown, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jaren Jackson, Xavier Tillman, Dillon Brooks
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Washington Wizards @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -6.5
Starting with the Wizards, they’ll be without Kristaps Porzingis in this one which should vault Deni Avdija back into the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Kristaps off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 19.0% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 29.4% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 17.8% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
- Kyle Kuzma – 30.9% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 15.9% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
The starting lineup will obviously see a boost with Kristaps out and the matchup is great, so these guys are going to be strong options in all formats. Monte Morris is my least favorite of the group, but the minutes will be there and he’s shown a nice floor. Avidja had a down game last time out but is averaging 30.69 FanDuel points per game in eight games with Kristaps out this season. From the Hawks, Trae Young kept it rolling last time out but gets a solid matchup with this Wizards’ defense in this one. Dejounte Murray isn’t a guy I love at this price tag when Young is in there, on a big slate like this I can’t imagine I get to a whole lot of him, although he’s been good over their last couple of games. Clint Capela has been good but the minutes are tough to trust especially with John Collins back in there. Speaking of Collins, he returned last time out to play 26 minutes, I can’t imagine I get much of him in this one either. Bogdan Bogdanovic bounced back nicely last time out but has been extremely volatile as of late. Then guys like De’Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey are fine last piece in type plays but are in a similar boat as Bogdanovic.
***Quick update – Monte Morris has been ruled OUT, I would expect Delon Wright to start in his place and will look like a nice option again here.***
5-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Trae Young
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford, Dejounte Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Clint Capela, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey
Milwaukee Bucks @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5
Starting with the Bucks, it sounds like Giannis Antetokounmpo will be good to go here and I would imagine he’s a full go. He’ll look like a top spend-up option on the slate in a great matchup. It’s a different team now, but he’s averaging 64.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Nets this season. Jrue Holiday has been in great form but will take a bit of a hit with Giannis back in there and his price tag is up. I keep saying it, but at some point, Khris Middleton is going to re-enter the starting lineup, but he’s seen a pretty firm 25-minute restriction since coming back from injury, although he’s looked great when he’s out there. Brook Lopez has been unreal as of late with at least 48 DraftKings points in three of his last five, he’ll likely take a hit with Giannis back in there but he always has the ability to get hot from behind the arch. With this team back to almost full strength, I don’t think we need to get to guys like Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Jae Crowder at their respective price tags. From the Nets, Ben Simmons will be out in this one, but he’s essentially their third-string center right now, so I don’t think it entirely matters. Spencer Dinwiddie bounced back nicely last time out and should continue to play all the minutes he can handle, he’ll look solid in all formats here. Mikal Bridges is in the same boat and is a guy I’m buying stock in going forward, I think he’s going to have a big finish to the season. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which makes him more of a tournament option than anything, his production becomes much more volatile. The price tag on Nicolas Claxton has come down but so has his production and minutes making him more of a GPP option… they’ll need his size in this one though. Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith have been fine since making their Nets’ debut but not guys I think we need to prioritize by any means.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Nicolas Claxton
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Khris Middleton, Cam Thomas, Dorian Finney-Smith
Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -2.5
We saw this matchup the last time these teams took the court, so we have at least a small sample to go off of here. Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has been great as of late and is averaging 51.4 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Thunder this season. I like the price tag a good amount as well. De’Aaron Fox has been in similarly great form if not, even better form than Sabonis. That said, he does come in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding him. Then we get to the mid-range of this team which is very bunched together with guys like Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray. I have no issue with any of these guys if you happened to land on them, but Murray and Barnes make plenty of sense in cash games. Monk came back down to Earth after that massive game in double overtime against the Clippers. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this one which means we should see someone like Isaiah Joe in the starting lineup while Josh Giddey moves to the point. Below is how this team operates with Gilgeous-Alexander off of the court this season:
- Josh Giddey – 26.0% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Isaiah Joe – 20.4% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Lu Dort – 26.1% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Jalen Williams – 21.7% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Jaylin Williams – 14.1% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
Giddey, Dort, and Jalen Williams are my favorite options on the team with SGA off of the court, as I would expect them to do most of the creating in the offense. Guys like Aaron Wiggins, and Tre Mann are all fine turds as well as they see a bump in minutes, Wiggins actually started the second half over Joe last time out which seemed to help Joe’s production a good amount, so maybe they make a starting lineup change with those guys.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Josh Giddey
4-star play: Keegan Murray, Harrison Barnes, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe
Deeper Value: Tre Mann, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Tre Mann
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Denver Nuggets @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Den -10.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate even after a massive game last time out against the Clippers. The Rockets don’t have anyone that will be able to guard him, much like most teams. Jamal Murray had a nice bounce-back game last time out dropping a 50-burger on the Clippers and is a guy I like going right back to in this one. Michael Porter Jr. had a great game as well which makes complete sense (not) as Aaron Gordon returned as well. Speaking of Aaron Gordon, he returned last time out and played 29 minutes, I would think he’s a full go again here, but is priced up after having a great run before the All-Star break. From the Rockets, Jalen Green will be back in this one while Kevin Porter Jr. comes in as questionable, I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. If we assume Porter Jr. is out, Green and Sengun are going to look like top options here. TyTy Washington will return to the bench while Jae’Sean Tate should stick in the starting lineup if Porter Jr. is out again. Alperen Sengun will have his hands full with Jokic down low and is averaging just 31.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Nuggets this season, so Green may be my preferred option between the two. Then guys like Jabari Smith and KJ Martin make sense as guys to round out the team, they’ll still see minutes and opportunity assuming Porter Jr. is out.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Jae’Sean Tate
Indiana Pacers @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Dal -9.0
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton has been good as of late and the price tag is staying pretty steady. I like the matchup quite a bit against a struggling Mavs defense, he’s going to look great in this one. Myles Turner has at least 41 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and is a guy I like here as well. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith are solid tournament options in a nice matchup. From the Mavs, Kyrie Irving has been fine but I just think he’s slightly overpriced. Since joining the team, Kyrie has a 27.5% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute which is nice, but the price tag doesn’t reflect that. He’d be more of a tournament option at this price tag. Luka Doncic will look like a top spend-up option right there with Giannis and Jokic in an elite matchup… but there is that lingering question on how he meshes with Kyrie in the backcourt. I can’t say I love Christian Wood due to the volatility in his minutes, but he’s an elite per-minute producer, so I don’t mind getting to him in GPPs. Then guys like Tim Hardaway and Josh Green are secondary options if you land on them when filling out your lineup.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Kyrie Irving
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway, Josh Green
San Antonio Spurs @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -9.5
Starting with the Spurs, Tre Jones comes into this one as questionable again after missing their last handful of games, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. We saw Devonte’ Graham move back to the bench with Jeremy Sochan back last time out, but he still saw 29 minutes, so I have no issue going right back to him if Jones is out again. Keldon Johnson has shown some nice consistency over his last handful of games as well and I like the matchup here, he’s going to look like a nice option. Zach Collins will continue to start at the five and has been great since taking over that role, the price tag has come up, but for good reason. Then guys like Malaki Branham and Jeremy Sochan make sense as secondary options as well. From the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson has joined Collin Sexton on the inactives for tonight’s game, so I would imagine we see Kris Dunn slide into the starting lineup. He’s going to look like a great value option coming off of a massive game last time out. Talen Horton-Tucker is a guy we can go right back to as well with Sexton out again. He has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five and his minutes are much more consistent with these guys off of the court. Lauri Markkanen came down to Earth last time out but has a 35.1% usage rate and 1.68 fantasy points per minute with all these Jazz pieces off of the court this season. It’s just a 59-minute sample size, so I would expect those rates to come down, but he’ll play a big role in the offense. Walker Kessler continues to look great and is a nice piece in all formats as well. Then Kelly Olynyk has been in good form with at least 36 FanDuel points in two of his last four games and makes plenty of sense in this one coming off of a massive game last time out.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Kris Dunn, Talen Horton-Tucker
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, Walker Kessler, Kelly Olynyk
Deeper Value: Kris Dunn
GPP Sleeper: Malaki Branham, Devonte’ Graham
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -6.5
Starting with the Wolves, I’m going to continue to hammer Rudy Gobert even with his price tag up, he’s a sneaky massive benefactor of the team trading D’Angelo Russell out of town. Reports were that Russell just refused to give him the ball while Mike Conley has played with him in the past and knows how to run an offense with him… he’s going to be a guy I’m all over again in this one. We just saw what Jokic did to this Clippers frontcourt, Gobert isn’t anywhere near Jokic’s talent, but he’s going to look good again. We’ve seen him benefit with Conley in there already with at least 38.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards kept it rolling last time out and feels like he’s hitting a bit of a groove, love the matchup here for him as well. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as GPP options at the forward position. Finally, Naz Reid had an absolute monster game last time out, but with Gobert back I think we can jump off of that train on a big slate. From the Clippers, Ivica Zubac comes in as questionable and we likely won’t have that news before lock, but I think we can just stay away from this frontcourt on this slate. Kawhi Leonard kept it rolling last time out while Paul George came down to Earth. I think we see both of their ceilings come down a bit with Russell Westbrook on the team, but they’re fine options if you land on them. Speaking of Westbrook, he saw just 25 minutes last time out but still put up a nice game, I have no issue with him in tournaments at this price tag again.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, Mike Conley, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Russell Westbrook
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, Norman Powell, Eric Gordon
Portland Trail Blazers @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.0
Starting with the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic but did get Jerami Grant back from concussion protocol last time out. I would expect Grant to return to his full role here and looks like a nice option in a great matchup. Damian Lillard is the real piece of this team we’ll be looking to after he dropped 71 real points last time out, he also has a 41.6% usage rate and 1.80 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. From the Warriors, it sounds like Andrew Wiggins will be out along with Steph Curry in this one. I would expect to see Donte DiVincenzo back in the starting lineup as we saw against the Wolves last time out. He had a massive game and makes sense as a secondary tournament option at the very least. Jordan Poole hasn’t exactly been great over his last few games but we know the usage and opportunity is there with Curry and Wiggins out, so he’s a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Klay Thompson has been the guy we want in the backcourt as of late and has a 28.5% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins and Curry off of the court this season. Draymond Green is rarely a guy I prioritize but is a fine option to round out your roster construction if you land on him. Lastly, I would expect Kevon Looney to stick in the starting lineup and he has at least 33 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Drew Eubanks, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Donte DiVincenzo, Kevon Looney
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, Draymond Green, Jonathan Kuminga
NBA Lock of the Day: Kris Dunn (DK – $3.6k; FD – $4.5k)
The Jazz will be without both Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton tonight which means Kris Dunn likely slides into the starting lineup. We haven’t seen a whole lot of him this season but he’s coming off of a great game in this exact matchup last time out, he’s going to look like one of the better value options on the slate. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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