Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/26:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!

EARLY SLATE:

Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks

Vegas Total: 233.5

Vegas Spread: Atl -5.0

We’ll kick this slate off with the Nets, Ben Simmons will be out in this one, but he’s essentially their third-string center right now, so I don’t think it entirely matters. Spencer Dinwiddie had a floor game last time out as this team was throttled by the Bulls. I have no issue going right back to him in a nice matchup as his price tag comes down. Mikal Bridges returned to Earth after a massive game going into the break, he’s another guy that I have no problem going back to, Dinwiddie and Bridges will run this offense. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which makes him more of a tournament option than anything, his production becomes much more volatile. The price tag on Nicolas Claxton has come down but so has his production and minutes making him more of a GPP option. Cam Johnson and Dorian Finney-Smith have been fine since making their Nets’ debut but not guys I think we need to prioritize by any means. From the Hawks, Trae Young kept it rolling last time out but gets a solid matchup with this Nets defense in this one. He’s in play in all formats on a short slate. Dejounte Murray isn’t a guy I love at this price tag when Young is in there, on a big slate like this I can’t imagine I get to a whole lot of him. Clint Capela has been good but the minutes are tough to trust. John Collins being questionable could help secure those, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. Bogdan Bogdanovic hasn’t been great in his last couple, but obviously, the minutes should be there if you happen to land on him at a cheap price tag. Then guys like De’Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey will help fill the Collins role and make sense as GPP options as well to round out this team.

5-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Trae Young

4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Nicolas Claxton, Cam Johnson, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Cam Thomas, Nicolas Claxton, Dorian Finney-Smith, De’Andre Hunter, Saddiq Bey, Bogdan Bogdanovic, John Collins

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Washington Wizards @ Chicago Bulls

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Chi -4.0

Starting with the Wizards, they’ll be without Kristaps Porzingis in this one which should vault Deni Avdija back into the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Kristaps off of the court this season:

• Monte Morris – 19.0% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
• Bradley Beal – 29.5% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
• Deni Avdija – 17.8% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
• Kyle Kuzma – 31.1% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
• Daniel Gafford – 15.8% usage rate; 1.06 fpm

The starting lineup will obviously see a boost with Kristaps ou and the matchup is great, so these guys are going to be strong options in all formats. Monte Morris is my least favorite of the group, but the minutes will be there and he’s shown a nice floor. Avidja has not disappointed with Kristaps out this season averaging 32.96 FanDuel points per game in seven games with him out. From the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan returned last time out but played just 28 minutes due to blowing the doors off of the Nets. Generally at least one of DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, and Zach LaVine will have a big game and generally one will have a bad game, but good luck determining which that will be. I’ve been getting the most exposure to the cheapest of the three and I think that’s the best way to attack it. The rest of this team isn’t anything I think we need to prioritize, but guys like Patrick Williams or Alex Caruso make sense on a short slate.

5-star play: Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma

4-star play: Bradley Beal, Daniel Gafford, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu

Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!

Los Angeles Lakers @ Dallas Mavericks

Vegas Total: 236.0

Vegas Spread: Dal -4.0

Starting with the Lakers, they’ll be without D’Angelo Russell in this one, but LeBron James and Anthony Davis should be good to go. I would expect Dennis Schroder jumps in and takes over the Russell role which will boost his minutes and production. LeBron is averaging 56.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Mavericks this season but both of those games were without Davis on the court with him. Both of these guys are going to look like strong spend-up options on the early slate against a bad Mavericks defense. Malik Beasley had a massive game last time out and should stick around in the starting lineup to provide a shooting threat on the outside… but he needs to hit his shots to get you there. Jarred Vanderbilt is a fine value option as well, he should see 20+ minutes but there isn’t a whole lot of usage and opportunity to go around. From the Mavs, this should be a fun one as Kyrie Irving matches up with his good buddy LeBron, but from a fantasy perspective, I think that’s the only narrative I can talk myself into. He’ll continue to have to fight for usage with Luka in the backcourt. Since joining the team, Kyrie has a 27.0% usage rate and 1.29 fantasy points per minute which is nice, but the price tag doesn’t reflect that. He’d be more of a tournament option at this price tag. Luka Doncic will look like a top spend-up option on the slate and has at least 59 DraftKings points in three straight games. I can’t say I love Christian Wood due to the volatility in his minutes, but they’ll need his size down low against Davis, so I don’t mind getting to him in GPPs. Then guys like Tim Hardaway and Josh Green are secondary options if you land on them when filling out your lineup.

5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic

4-star play: Dennis Schroder, Malik Beasley, Kyrie Irving, Christian Wood

Deeper Value: Jarred Vanderbilt

GPP Sleeper: Dennis Schroder, Jarred Vanderbilt, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway, Josh Green

MAIN SLATE:

Toronto Raptors @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Total: 216.5

Vegas Spread: Cle -7.0

Starting with the Raptors, it’s unclear if Fred VanVleet will be available in this one after missing yesterday’s game due to a personal reason, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s in there for the sake of this article. I can’t say I love the matchup but he should continue to see all the minutes he can handle. Jakob Poeltl has been a guy I’ve been getting a ton of as of late and his price tag hasn’t come up enough, he’s going to look like an elite option yet again even in a tougher matchup. Pascal Siakam bounced back nicely yesterday and is averaging 45.8 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Cavs this season. Scottie Barnes is going to play 35+ minutes but hasn’t been in the best form as of late, he’s more of a secondary option for me in this one. Then guys like Gary Trent Jr. and OG Anunoby are fine secondary options to round out this team. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has come down to Earth over his last couple of games but is still a fine option here. The pace and implied total aren’t great in this game which will keep him as a secondary play for me. The price tag on Darius Garland has come down to a much more playable number and makes sense in this one as well. Evan Mobley had a tough go of it against the Hawks last time out but otherwise has been in pretty good form as of late. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more.

5-star play: Jakob Poeltl

4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, Gary Trent Jr., Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Ricky Rubio

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Sacramento Kings @ Oklahoma City Thunder

Vegas Total: 240.5

Vegas Spread: Sac -3.5

Starting with the Kings, they had a massive game where they dropped 176 points in a double-overtime win against the Clippers last time out which will inflate their stats a bit, so just keep note of that when looking at game logs. Domantas Sabonis fouled out in 31 minutes, so he wasn’t able to benefit as much but is a guy I like going right back to the well with in an elite matchup in this one. De’Aaron Fox looked great in 45 minutes of action and looks great again at this price tag against a team that isn’t playing much of any defense. Then we get to the mid-range of this team which is very bunched together with guys like Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray. I have no issue with any of these guys if you happened to land on them, but Huerter and Barnes make plenty of sense in cash games. Monk had the massive game off of the bench, but I don’t think I would chase that. From the Thunder, they’ll be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this one which means we should see someone like Isaiah Joe in the starting lineup while Josh Giddey moves to the point. Below is how this team operates with Gilgeous-Alexander off of the court this season:

• Josh Giddey – 25.9% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
• Isaiah Joe – 20.6% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
• Lu Dort – 25.7% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
• Jalen Williams – 21.7% usage rate; 0.97 fpm
• Jaylin Williams – 13.7% usage rate; 1.01 fpm

Giddey, Dort, and Jalen Williams are my favorite options on the team with SGA off of the court, as I would expect them to do most of the creating in the offense. Guys like Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Tre Mann are all fine turds as well as they see a bump in minutes.

***One thing to note… FanDuel messed up the price tag for Chimezie Metu who is currently $410 and will make sense as a complete punt to spend up elsewhere***

5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Josh Giddey

4-star play: Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams

Deeper Value: Tre Mann, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins

GPP Sleeper: Keegan Murray, Malik Monk, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, Tre Mann

Be sure to check out our PrizePicks tool as well which provides our projection in relation to the PrizePicks line giving us max leverage to hammer home those best prop spots. Below is an example of a huge edge we get on Devin Booker for today’s slate. CLICK HERE TO CHECK IT OUT.

 

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 233.5

Vegas Spread: Gsw -2.0

Starting with the Timberwolves, I’m going to continue to hammer Rudy Gobert even with his price tag up, he’s a sneaky massive benefactor of the team trading D’Angelo Russell out of town. Reports were that Russell just refused to give him the ball while Mike Conley has played with him in the past and knows how to run an offense with him… he’s going to be a guy I’m all over in this one. We’ve seen him benefit with Conley in there already with at least 38.5 DraftKings points in three straight games. Speaking of Mike Conley, I have no issue going right back to him as well, the price tag is nice and we know the consistency will be there. Anthony Edwards kept it rolling last time out and feels like he’s hitting a bit of a groove, love the matchup here for him as well. Then we can round the team out with Jaden McDaniels and Kyle Anderson who make sense as GPP options at the forward position. From the Warriors, it sounds like Andrew Wiggins will be out along with Steph Curry in this one. I would expect to see Donte DiVincenzo back in the starting lineup as we saw against the Rockets last time out. Jordan Poole hasn’t exactly been great over his last few games but we know the usage and opportunity is there with Curry and Wiggins out, so he’s a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Klay Thompson bounced back in a massive way last time out and has a 28.1% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins and Curry off of the court this season. Draymond Green is rarely a guy I prioritize but is a fine option to round out your roster construction if you land on him. Lastly, I would expect Kevon Looney to stick in the starting lineup and he has at least 26 DraftKings points in five straight games.

5-star play: Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson

4-star play: Mike Conley, Kyle Anderson, Donte DiVincenzo, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Jaden McDaniels, Jonathan Kuminga

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Houston Rockets @ Portland Trail Blazers

Vegas Total: 230.0

Vegas Spread: Por -9.5

Starting with the Rockets, they’ll be without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green again in this one. TyTy Washington was in the starting lineup last time out which is what I would expect again in this one. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court this season:

• TyTy Washington – 18.6% usage rate; 0.77 fpm
• Jae’Sean Tate – 21.6% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
• KJ Martin – 18.0% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
• Jabari Smith – 21.8% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
• Alperen Sengun – 23.0% usage rate; 1.27 fpm

Sengun is my clear favorite option in a great matchup with the Blazers but there are some nice pieces in this starting lineup and I think Tari Eason makes sense off of the bench as well, they’ve shown a willingness to give him some extended run as of late. Washington looked great as a starter last time out as well and makes plenty of sense at this price tag. From the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic but will get Jerami Grant back from concussion protocol in this one. I would expect Grant to return to his full role here and looks like a nice option in a great matchup. The price tag is way up on Damian Lillard but he’s been in elite form, he also has a 40.6% usage rate and 1.75 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. I’m throwing their last game out the window with most of their starters resting.

5-star play: Alperen Sengun, Damian Lillard

4-star play: TyTy Washington, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Jerami Grant, Drew Eubanks

Deeper Value: Shaedon Sharpe

GPP Sleeper: Jae’Sean Tate, Tari Eason, Shaedon Sharpe, Cam Reddish

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Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver Nuggets

Vegas Total: 233.0

Vegas Spread: Den -2.5

Starting with the Clippers, they were on the other end of that 175-point double overtime loss to the Kings, so they’ll have some inflated numbers as well. I was pretty much off of this team as a whole with Russell Westbrook making his debut in the starting lineup… which didn’t end up working for me thanks to that double overtime. Westbrook played 39 minutes and should start for the remainder of the season, he’s interesting, to say the least at this price tag. I still can’t say I love Paul George and Kawhi Leonard even after coming off of huge games last time out. We know Westbrook is going to be ball dominant and steal a lot of usage, so I’ll consider George and Kawhi more of tournament options. Then Ivica Zubac will be out again which will keep Mason Plumlee in the starting lineup, he was great last time out and is a guy I like going right back to the well with here. They’ll need his size against Jokic down low. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate even after a tough game last night. Jamal Murray had a rough go of it as well, their offense was clamped down by that Memphis defense, this is a nice bounce-back spot. He’s going to look like a solid option in all formats yet again. Michael Porter Jr. will look like a solid option in GPPs if Gordon is forced to miss again, he’s around a fantasy point per minute with him off of the court this season. As I mentioned, Aaron Gordon is a question mark again here, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again, so guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown should benefit and see some additional minutes.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic

4-star play: Russell Westbrook, Mason Plumlee, Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr.

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown

NBA Lock of the Day: Josh Giddey (DK – $7.3k; FD – $8.0k)

The Thunder will be without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in this one which opens up the opportunity for Giddey to move to the point. He has a 26.4% usage rate and 1.12 fantasy points per minute with SGA and Pokusevski off of the court this season and just seems underpriced on both DraftKings and FanDuel. I love the matchup as well against the Kings in a game with a 239.5 implied total. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!

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