Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/23:
Feb 15, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Lakers guard D’Angelo Russell (1) reacts after scoring a three point basket against the New Orleans Pelicans during the second half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Denver Nuggets @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -2.0
Welcome back from the All-Star break everyone! We’ll get right into things and get this slate started with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate even in a tough matchup with Allen and Mobley down low. That said, he dropped 69.75 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. Jamal Murray has been out for about three weeks but is expected to play in this one. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed to see if he’s limited at all, but assuming he’s a full go he’s a fine option, he’s priced up however. Michael Porter Jr. will look like a solid option in GPPs if Gordon is forced to miss again, he’s around a fantasy point per minute with him off of the court this season. Then if Aaron Gordon plays he’d be in a similar boat as Murray where he has missed their last handful of games and is priced up in a tough matchup. Guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are secondary GPP options, I would expect Brown to move back to the bench with Murray back and available in this one. From the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell has at least 53 DraftKings points in three straight games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here in hopes he can keep the heater rolling. I don’t love the price tag on Darius Garland, I would rather just find the salary to get up to Mitchell if possible. Evan Mobley has been great as of late as well but has come down to Earth over the last couple of games and is priced up in a tough matchup. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range, but I like the price tag on Allen much more.
***Update – Aaron Gordon has been ruled out, this gives a boost to Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, and Bruce Brown as they help fill in his minutes… that said, they’re priced up for this already.***
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley
Detroit Pistons @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Orl -6.5
Starting with the Pistons, James Wiseman made his debut in their game before the break but did not start as previously hinted at by team beat writers. I would think he comes off of the bench while Jalen Duren continues to play extremely well. That said, he does make sense as a value option here, they want to get him some work and saw 24 minutes in his debut. Jalen Duren has come down to Earth over his last two games and the presence of Wiseman certainly hurts his minutes’ security and is probably my preferred option at this price tag, particularly on DraftKings, as crazy as it sounds. Bojan Bogdanovic was consistent before the break and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Jaden Ivey has at least 30 DraftKings points in three straight games and makes sense as a tournament option in this one. Meanwhile, Killian Hayes bounced back last time out as well. He should continue to start and makes sense in the mid-range in a great matchup. Then Isaiah Stewart will be impacted by Wiseman as well, but I’m okay going back to him as long as Marvin Bagley is out. From the Magic, they come in mostly healthy other than Cole Anthony who is questionable, which is somewhat big news. If he’s forced to miss it would open up minutes and opportunities for Markelle Fultz and Jalen Suggs who both had big games last time out. Paolo Banchero is a fine option, but he’s been volatile relative to his current price tag. Franz Wagner hasn’t been all that great and has been held under 30 FanDuel points in eight straight games, he’d be more of a roster filler for me. Then Wendell Carter Jr. makes sense as an option at this price tag as well, I don’t mind the matchup and we know the ceiling is there.
5-star play: James Wiseman (DraftKings Value)
4-star play: Jalen Duren, Jaden Ivey, Bojan Bogdanovic, Killian Hayes, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr., Paolo Banchero
Deeper Value: James Wiseman (DraftKings)
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Stewart, Killian Hayes, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -8.0
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum had a massive game before the All-Star break and a massive game during the actual All-Star game… take it for what it’s worth. That said, he’s going to look like an elite option in all formats in a great matchup here. He scored 60.25 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. Jaylen Brown should be back in this one after playing in the All-Star game which will hurt the rates for Tatum a bit, but Brown should be a full go and makes sense in GPPs at the very least. Brown being back will hurt the production for guys like Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, and Derrick White as well. White will be a full fade for me at his current price tag as this team gets healthier. Smart will be back as well after returning in their final game before the break. I wouldn’t expect any sort of limitations for him as he saw 29 minutes in that game as well. Below is how this team operates when it’s at full health:
- Marcus Smart – 16.9% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Jaylen Brown – 31.4% usage rate; 1.21 fpm
- Jayson Tatum – 33.0% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
- Al Horford – 11.9% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Robert Williams – 12.0% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
- Derrick White – 17.6% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Malcolm Brogdon – 23.1% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
The biggest thing with Brogdon and probably White as well, they’ll see a sizeable minutes downgrade. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton came crashing down to Earth against the Bulls before the break but is a guy I like going right back to in GPPs. The matchup is tough, but we’ve seen him produce at an elite rate this season. Myles Turner will look more like a tournament option but the price tag is nice against a bad rebounding team. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith are solid tournament options in a nice matchup.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Tyrese Haliburton, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Al Horford, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith
New Orleans Pelicans @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -5.0
Starting with the Pelicans, CJ McCollum looked good before going on break, he came in as questionable in that game so it was good to see him play his normal minutes. I don’t love the price tag but he makes plenty of sense as a secondary option in all formats. Brandon Ingram is probably my preferred option on this team, he leads the team with a 32.7% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute on the season with Zion off of the court. Jonas Valanciunas is a GPP-only guy option due to his volatility, but we know the ceiling is there when he’s right. Then guys like Trey Murphy, Larry Nance, and Herb Jones are fine flyer options on the wing, but not guys we need to prioritize by any means. From the Raptors, they should get both OG Anunoby and Gary Trent Jr. back in this one and I would expect they play their full minutes and look like solid secondary options at their price tags. Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet will take slight hits but they’re still going to play all the minutes they can handle, but that VanVleet price tag is kind of scary. The same can be said for Scottie Barnes who has seen a big price increase over the break. I was all over Jakob Poeltl last time this team was on the slate, he played 37 minutes even with five fouls. He’s going to start and is too cheap yet again in this one. We can safely jump off of the Precious Achiuwa and Chris Boucher boat with OG and Trent Jr. back.
5-star play: Jakob Poeltl (DraftKings)
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Jakob Poeltl (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jonas Valanciunas, Larry Nance, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Scottie Barnes
Memphis Grizzlies @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -4.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant is going to look like a nice raw option, but I can’t say I love the price tag on him. That said, we know he has a massive ceiling so I won’t be talking anyone off of getting to him in this one. Jaren Jackson had a massive game against the Jazz before the break and will look like a fine secondary option here, I do worry about potential foul trouble with Embiid down low. We know Desmond Bane is going to continue his consistency and looks like a nice option in all formats as well. Xavier Tillman returned to the bench in their game before the break as Brandon Clarke started over him. Assuming this is the case again, we can get off of Tillman and Clarke will look like a nice option at his current price tag. He has an 18.2% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Adams off of the court this season. Then Dillon Brooks is a fine GPP option to round out the team but I imagine we can find better options on a nice-sized slate. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid bounced back nicely last time out and has at least 60 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, he’s going to look like an elite spend-up option on this slate. James Harden has been in great form and has been extremely consistent, he’s a nice option in all formats. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are GPP guys who will need to fight for usage with Embiid and Harden as the main pieces in the offense. Maxey’s minutes are trending in the right direction which is good to see at the very least.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, Brandon Clarke, James Harden
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jaren Jackson, Ja Morant, Dillon Brooks, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
San Antonio Spurs @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -13.5
Starting with the Spurs, we don’t have an injury report quite yet so I’ll operate under the assumption that Tre Jones and Devin Vassell will remain out for this one. Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan should be good to go. With Jones out again, I’ll go right back to the well with Devonte’ Graham even if he continues to come off of the bench. He has at least 22 DraftKings points in each game as a Spur and is playing good minutes… but has seen a slight price increase. Keldon has been good since returning from injury and gets a nice matchup in this one, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. The same can be said for Sochan who has seen his minutes trend in the right direction over the last couple of games. Zach Collins kept it rolling last time out and should start again in this one, I have no issue with him in a great matchup as well as he continues to start at the fie for this team. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic was a guy I took a stand on in their last game, taking a chance that Kyrie would be ruled out… that ended up happening which made him way too cheap. That said, Kyrie should return here which will hurt Luka’s rates, but it’s still a great matchup and he’s going to still look like a nice spend-up option. Speaking of Kyrie Irving, he has been great since Luka returned with at least 52 DraftKings points in each game. I don’t love the price tag, but it’s hard to ignore that production. Christian Wood just isn’t playing enough minutes for me to get to him with any sort of real exposure on a 9-game slate at his current price tag. Finally, Josh Green is going to continue to play big minutes, and makes sense as a secondary option to round out this team.
5-star play: Zach Collins
4-star play: Devonte’ Graham, Keldon Johnson, Kyrie Irving, Josh Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, Christian Wood, Josh Green, Tim Hardaway Jr. (if available)
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -2.0
Starting with the Thunder, Lu Dort is being eased back in but has seen his minutes trend in the right direction. That said, he’s not a guy I want exposure to until he’s back to his full role. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to look like an elite spend-up option, he does take a hit to his rates with Dort back but the matchup is great against this Jazz team. Josh Giddey is fine as well, he’s generally not a guy I prioritize when SGA is available, but he makes sense as a roster filler. Then guys like Jalen Williams and Kenrich Williams are fine secondary options to round out this team. From the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson will continue to look good here and play great minutes. He has a 28.7% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute with Malik Beasley and Mike Conley off of the court this season and this is a great fast-paced matchup. Talen Horton-Tucker was a guy I was off of last time out but ended up looking great once Sexton went down. Assuming Sexton is back here I want to go right back to fading Horton-Tucker at this price tag. I do like going right back to Collin Sexton here as well, his price tag has come up but he’s going to continue to start at point guard in a nice matchup. We know he can produce when given the opportunity and will look good again in this one. Lauri Markkanen will need to take a bigger role in this offense and has been pretty consistent as of late as well. Walker Kessler bounced back big time last time out and gets a great matchup against the Thunder frontcourt. Then Kelly Olynyk has been in good form with at least 36 FanDuel points in three of his last four games and makes plenty of sense in this one coming off of a massive game last time out.
***Update – Collin Sexton is expected to miss their next two games which will make Talen Horton-Tucker look like a great option in all formats. I would expect Ochai Agbaji gets the start, but Horton-Tucker is the guy you’ll want off of the bench***
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collin Sexton
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Walker Kessler
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Kenrich Williams, Talen Horton-Tucker
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 238.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -5.0
Starting with the Warriors, it sounds like Andrew Wiggins will be out along with Steph Curry in this one. I would expect to see Donte DiVincenzo or Jonathan Kuminga start in his place, but keep an eye out for the starting lineup. Jordan Poole will look like a good raw option, but he comes with some sticker shock as his price tag has come way up over the All-Star break. I would get my exposure to him over on FanDuel where he’s much cheaper but the matchup is great. Klay Thompson had a rough game last time out but has a 27.9% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Wiggins and Curry off of the court this season. Draymond Green is rarely a guy I prioritize but is a fine option to round out your roster construction if you land on him. Lastly, I would expect Kevon Looney to stick in the starting lineup and he has at least 29 DraftKings points in three straight games. From the Lakers, I would imagine LeBron James is good to go here as he played in their final game before the break and they need to start winning some games if they want to make any sort of playoff run. He scored 62.25 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season and looks like a nice option in all formats. Anthony Davis hasn’t been as successful in his two games against the Warriors this season, but might actually be my preferred option for cheaper on DraftKings… but give me LeBron for cheaper on FanDuel. D’Angelo Russell looked good last time out but is more of a tournament option as he shares usage with LeBron and Davis. Then the rest of this team is GPP darts, it’s hard to prioritize any of these guys even on a late slate… maybe some Malik Beasley or Jarred Vanderbilt, we did see these guys in the starting lineup last time out, so they could be interesting at these price tags.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis
4-star play: Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Donte DiVincenzo, Jonathan Kuminga, D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
Portland Trail Blazers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -5.0
Starting with the Blazers, they’ll continue to be without Anfernee Simons and Jusuf Nurkic but will get Jerami Grant back from concussion protocol in this one. I would expect Grant to return to his full role here and looks like a nice option in a great matchup. The price tag is way up on Damian Lillard but he’s been in elite form, he also has a 40.6% usage rate and 1.75 fantasy points per minute with Simons and Nurkic off of the court this season. Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Nurkic and makes sense as a mid-range option in all formats. Guys like Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, and Cam Reddish should continue to benefit from Simons being out but are more of secondary GPP options. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis returned to good form before the break and is going to look great again in this one. He’s going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle in an elite matchup… his price tag has also come down. The same can be said for De’Aaron Fox and should make for a fun game between him and Lillard on the other end of this one as they look to run and gun. Then we get to the mid-range of this team which is very bunched together with guys like Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray. I have no issue with any of these guys if you happened to land on them, but Huerter and Barnes make plenty of sense in cash games.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Drew Eubanks, Jerami Grant, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish
GPP Sleeper:Shaedon Sharpe, Matisse Thybulle, Cam Reddish, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk
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