Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/1:
Jan 20, 2023; Sacramento, California, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) looks on during the third quarter against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center. Mandatory Credit: Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few VIP Member wins – “Kanger” took home over $43k last week including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet while “NEZZY78” grabbed 2nd place on Saturday night winning $25k – congrats guys!
Portland Trail Blazers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Mem -5.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard bounced back nicely last time out and will continue to play all the minutes he can handle here. This should be a fun one as he looks to battle Morant in the backcourt. Jusuf Nurkic hasn’t been in great form but is expected to be good to go here and dropped 48.75 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season… and it only gets better with Adams out for the Grizzlies. Jerami Grant was a guy I fell on quite a bit last time out against the Hawks and is a solid secondary option again in this one. The same can be said for Anfernee Simons who has shown some nice consistency as of late. Then Josh Hart bounced back nicely last time out and would make sense as a lineup filler here. From the Grizzlies, they’ll be without Steven Adams again while Desmond Bane comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status as we get closer to lock. I would expect Brandon Clarke to remain in the starting lineup for Adams again in this one and will make sense even at his elevated price tag. He has an 18.4% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with Adams off of the court this season. Ja Morant has at least 58 DraftKings points in three straight games and is a top spend-up option on the slate. Then we get to Jaren Jackson Jr. who is going to be a GPP guy, we know he struggles with foul issues but the ceiling is certainly there as we saw last time out. Finally, Dillon Brooks is worth a look in GPPs as well, he’s going to play massive minutes and should absorb some of those Bane shot opportunities if he’s forced to miss… probably not a guy I’d get to if Bane is active.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Ja Morant
4-star play: Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Brandon Clarke
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jusuf Nurkic, Dillon Brooks
Orlando Magic @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Phi -8.5
We saw this matchup the last time these two took the court, so we have at least a little bit of a sample size to go off of. Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero bounced back in a big way in that game and would be a guy that’s interesting again in this one. His price tag went down on DraftKings and has SF/PF eligibility on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Franz Wagner is more of a secondary option but does have at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Wendell Carter Jr. has been pretty meh over his last two games and comes into this one as questionable, he’d be more of a tournament guy here against Embiid down low. Markelle Fultz had a nice game last time out in a revenge game against the team that drafted him, I have no issue with him at this price tag. Then Cole Anthony is a GPP-only guy, his minutes and production are all over the place. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid comes in questionable again here after playing last time out with that same questionable tag, I’ll assume he plays due to that again here. He looked good enough to go right back to in this one, the floor and ceiling both look great in a nice matchup. James Harden is a solid option as well, he wasn’t spectacular last time out, but he’s playing a ton of minutes and we know he also has a nice floor/ceiling combo. Then guys like De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, and Tyrese Maxey will all be GPP guys to round out the team. It’s hard to prioritize any of them when Embiid and Harden are both in there dominating the usage and looks.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Markelle Fultz, James Harden
Deeper Value: Moe Wagner
GPP Sleeper: Wendell Carter Jr., Cole Anthony, Moe Wagner, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Washington Wizards @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Was -6.0
Starting with the Wizards, Daniel Gafford missed their last game and comes in as questionable in this one. Deni Avdija probably gets the biggest boost if he’s not able to play again here, he has at least 32 FanDuel points in four straight games. Kristaps Porzingis returned last time out and didn’t show any signs of rust, I’ll have no issue going back to him here, particularly in tournaments. Kyle Kuzma will take a hit with Kristaps back in there and is probably more of a secondary option, but the matchup is nice at the very least. Bradley Beal looked good in that game and still has a nice price tag, we haven’t really seen a ceiling game from him in a while, but I think he makes sense again in this one. Then Monte Morris makes sense as a roster filler. From the Pistons, Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey stuck around in the starting lineup again last time out, and would expect more of the same here. They’ve both performed nicely as starters over the last week or so and would-be guys I have no issue with going right back to in this one. Bojan Bogdanovic is never really a guy I prioritize much but makes sense here, he has at least 36 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Jaden Ivey and Killian Hayes are more GPP options than anything, but Ivey has looked better without Killian in the starting lineup next to him if we exclude their last game. Then Jalen Duren should continue to see the majority of the center minutes and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Deni Avdija, Kristaps Porzingis, Bradley Beal, Kyle Kuzma, Alec Burks, Saddiq Bey, Jalen Duren, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Daniel Gafford, Monte Morris, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart
Brooklyn Nets @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -8.5
Starting with the Nets, Ben Simmons and TJ Warren have already been ruled out for this one along with Kevin Durant who will continue to miss time. I would expect Seth Curry to remain in the starting lineup for Simmons even after a rough game last time out. He has a 19.3% usage rate and 0.72 fantasy points per minute with Simmons and Durant off of the court this season which isn’t great, but still a guy that is playable in that price range. Kyrie Irving gets a revenge game against his old squad and has at least 50 DraftKings points in seven straight games, he’s going to look like a nice spend-up option again in this one. Nic Claxton came down to Earth last time out but will look good again here with Simmons out, he sees a nice boost in his rebound equity with these guys out and the Celtics aren’t a great rebounding team as a whole. Then we can round the team out with Royce O’Neale who always makes sense as a roster filler. From the Celtics, they’ll continue to be without Marcus Smart while Robert Williams comes in as questionable again. I’ll operate under the assumption that Williams is good to go, but obviously, watch that Breaking News Feed for updates. The price tag on Jayson Tatum is massive but he’s been in great form and this is a really nice matchup, especially with Simmons out. Jaylen Brown bounced back nicely last time out and now has at least 50 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. Malcolm Brogdon is probably the biggest benefactor from Smart being out, he looked good last time out and has a 26.1% usage rate and 1.19 fantasy points per minute with Smart off of the court this season. Derrick White should benefit as well and has been in good form. Then we can round the team out with Al Horford who really hasn’t been a guy I’ve gotten to a whole lot this season and I probably won’t start here.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Jayson Tatum
4-star play: Seth Curry, Nic Claxton, Royce O’Neale, Jaylen Brown, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams
Deeper Value: Joe Harris
GPP Sleeper: Seth Curry, Robert Williams, Al Horford, Derrick White
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: GSW -2.5
Starting with the Warriors, Steph Curry had a massive game last time out and now has at least 62 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, he’s going to look like a strong spend-up option again in this one. Klay Thompson has been good as well even with Jordan Poole in the starting lineup next to him. Klay would be my preference between the two in this one, but still probably more of a tournament option on this slate. Draymond Green had a big game in this matchup earlier in the season but is more of a secondary option as he continues to play the small-ball five for this team. Then Andrew Wiggins makes sense as a tournament guy to round out the team, the price tag has probably fallen too far. From the Wolves, Anthony Edwards kept it rolling last time out and has at least 52 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and I love the matchup with a fast-paced Warriors team. D’Angelo Russell finally came down to Earth last time out, but he’s been extremely consistent as of late and would look good again here. Rudy Gobert continues to be too cheap, particularly on DraftKings, I’ll go right back to the well with him in this one. Kyle Anderson is never a sexy option, but he makes plenty of sense as a lineup filler with SF/PF eligibility. Then a guy like Jaden McDaniels would be more of a GPP dart than anything.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert (DraftKings)
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Andrew Wiggins, D’Angelo Russell, Rudy Gobert (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Okc -5.5
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a core play for me last time he was on the slate and it wasn’t pretty at first, but he rounded into form as the game went on. He sees a nice increase in his rates with Lu Dort off of the court, as odd as it sounds. He has a 39.3% usage rate and 1.64 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season and gets a great matchup in this one. Josh Giddey is a fine option, but probably not a priority by any means. I do like going right back to Jalen Williams, he looked great last time out and the matchup is awesome. Kenrich Williams is never a sexy option but gets the job done more times than not, especially as of late with Dort and Pokusevski out… I have no issue going right back to him as well. Aaron Wiggins was chalk last time out and ended up with a terrible game… I can’t imagine going back to him here even if he’s starting again, he saw a price jump as well. From the Rockets, they’ll continue to be without Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green in this one. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Daishen Nix – 13.8% usage rate; 0.65 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 27.3% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- KJ Martin – 18.8% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Jabari Smith Jr. – 23.0% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 23.9% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
This is what I project the starting five to look like and most of them are firmly in play as DFS options. I don’t think I’ll get a ton of Nix with that said. Alperen Sengun dropped 65.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and is going to look like a great option in this one. KJ Martin and Jabari Smith look like similar options but the price tags are solid considering the matchup and with Green and KPJ out. Then Eric Gordon had a nice game last time out as well and I’m sure they’re trying to showcase him a bit before the trade deadline in about a week and a half.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alperen Sengun
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, Jabari Smith, KJ Martin, Eric Gordon, Tari Eason
Deeper Value: Daishen Nix
GPP Sleeper: Kenrich Williams, Eric Gordon, Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate
Sacramento Kings @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 244.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -7.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis has come down to Earth over his last handful of games but gets an elite matchup with a Spurs team that isn’t playing any sort of defense. He’s going to look like a great option especially with his price tag coming down as of late. De’Aaron Fox has been great with at least 45 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and would be a guy I go right back to in this one. Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Keegan Murray are all similar options in that mid-range tier… I would have no issue with any of them, although Murray is probably the most volatile. Then Malik Monk would be a GPP option to round out the team. From the Spurs, Keldon Johnson has looked good over his last few games and I love the matchup here, this game has a massive implied total, so the opportunity should be there at the very least. Tre Jones looks solid as well, he’s averaging 30.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Kings this season. The minutes for Jakob Poeltl are all over the place making it hard to like him in anything other than a GPP. Jeremy Sochan has been seeing big minutes and has been in great form at a nice price tag, I would have no issue going right back to him in this one. Then Zach Collins had a massive game last time out and is stealing some of those Poeltl minutes, the price tag is coming up but he still makes sense in tournaments.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox
4-star play: Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jeremy Sochan
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Jakob Poeltl, Zach Collins
Toronto Raptors @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 230.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -3.0
Starting with the Raptors, OG Anunoby will continue to be out which means we should see Precious Achiuwa right back in the starting lineup. Achiuwa has been great in his place and is averaging 35 DraftKings points per game over his last five games and will be a guy I go right back to in this one. Meanwhile, Pascal Siakam continues to struggle even with playing massive minutes. That said, this is a great spot for him to bounce back in so I think he looks like a nice option here especially if people are going to be afraid of those game logs. Fred VanVleet has at least 40 DraftKings points in five straight games and is going to look good again in this one. Scottie Barnes has been extremely consistent as of late as well and looks like a nice secondary option. Then Gary Trent Jr. will continue to play big minutes as well but feels like he’s priced right about where he should be, so more of a tournament guy. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen has come down to Earth a bit as of late, but so has his price tag. I think he looks like a strong option in this one and makes sense in all formats. The same thing can be said for Jordan Clarkson, but I can’t imagine I get a whole lot of him on a slate of this size. Walker Kessler bounced back in a big way last time out but the minutes have been volatile making him a tournament option as well. They did get Kelly Olynyk back last time out but was on a pretty heavy minutes restriction, I don’t think he’s playable until he gets his minutes back to normal. Mike Conley has been in good form with at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five and makes sense in all formats as well. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt would be GPP options at best to round out this team.
5-star play: Precious Achiuwa, Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Lauri Markkanen, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt
Atlanta Hawks @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Pho -1.5
Starting with the Hawks, it sounds like Trae Young should be good to return here and has at least 53 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. I can’t say I love the matchup, but the price tag is more than fair. Dejounte Murray had a massive game in Trae’s place last time out, but he’ll move back to being a secondary option with Trae back in this one. Clint Capela kept it rolling last time out as well, the matchup isn’t great with Ayton down low, but the ceiling is clearly there as long as the minutes are. Bogdan Bogdanovic is another guy that picked up the slack with Trae out last time out, but he’ll move back to being a tournament option here. The same can be said for De’Andre Hunter and John Collins, just not guys I can see prioritizing in this one. From the Suns, Chris Paul has been great averaging 49.7 DraftKings points per game over his last five games, and will look good again in this one. I love attacking opposing point guards against this Hawks backcourt. The spot looks great for Deandre Ayton as well, he has a 31.5% usage rate and 1.38 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Mikal Bridges dropped a 50-burger last time out and is a solid option as well. Then the only other guy I’d have interest in here would be Cam Johnson coming off of a tough game. That said, the minutes are coming up and we’ve seen him produce nicely since returning from injury.
5-star play: Trae Young, Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Cam Johnson
NBA Lock of the Day: Alperen Sengun (DK – $8.8k; FD – $8.3k)
Sengun just feels too cheap here with Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green out again in this one. He has a 23.9% usage rate and 1.40 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season. Not to mention, the matchup is elite against a bad Thunder frontcourt. He dropped 65.25 DraftKings/66.3 FanDuel points against the Thunder earlier this season as well. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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