Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/15:
Feb 13, 2023; Dallas, Texas, USA; Dallas Mavericks guard Kyrie Irving (2) celebrates with Dallas Mavericks guard Luka Doncic (77) during the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at American Airlines Center. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k last weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
San Antonio Spurs @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 241.0
Vegas Spread: Cha -7.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Spurs, Tre Jones will continue to be out but Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan should be good to go. With Jones out again, I’ll go right back to the well with Devonte’ Graham even if he continues to come off of the bench. He has at least 26 DraftKings points in each game as a Spur and is playing good minutes. Keldon has been good since returning from injury and gets a nice matchup in this one, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. The same can be said for Sochan who has seen his minutes trend in the right direction over the last couple of games. Zach Collins kept it rolling last time out and should start again in this one, I have no issue with him in a great matchup as well. Then a guy like Malaki Branham is more of a tournament option than anything. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball has at least 52 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is a guy I like going back to in a great matchup here. Terry Rozier bounced back in a big way last time out and has been fairly consistent as of late, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Mark Williams has continued to start with Mason Plumlee traded and his price tag is starting to reflect that. He has at least 30 minutes in two of his last three and was a core play for me last time he was on the slate and is looking similar on this slate. That said, I do think Nick Richards is an interesting leverage piece if you want to climb over those Williams teams, should he get into foul trouble again. PJ Washington has been in great form as well and is playing big minutes, he’ll make sense in all formats. Then Gordon Hayward had a massive game last time out and is playing big minutes with McDaniels out of town. This whole game looks pretty good for fantasy purposes.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams
4-star play: Devonte’ Graham, Keldon Johnson, Zach Collins, Terry Rozier, PJ Washington, Gordon Hayward
Deeper Value: Nick Richards, Devonte’ Graham
GPP Sleeper: Nick Richards, Malaki Branham
Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Ind -2.5
Starting with the Bulls, they’ll be without DeMar DeRozan in this one which should vault Alex Caruso into the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with DeRozan off of the court this season:
- Ayo Dosunmu – 15.3% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Alex Caruso – 12.6% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Zach LaVine – 31.7% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Patrick Williams – 16.3% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- Nikola Vucevic – 24.5% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
LaVine and Vucevic are the standout guys from the Bulls, any time we can get one of the three main guys inactive it’s easier to identify where the usage and production will funnel. I do think we see a boost from Coby White as well and is a solid value tournament option. Then I do think we see some Andre Drummond as well, I wouldn’t expect him to play more than 10-15 minutes, but is a fine punt value option in tournaments. This is a great matchup, so we should be able to get some nice production all around here. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton was a guy I was all over last time out and he bounced back in a big way against the Jazz. I’ll have no issue going right back to him here in a great matchup with this Bulls team. Myles Turner ended up missing their last game and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. Should he end up missing we should see Daniel Theis back in the starting lineup while Isaiah Jackson would see a boost in playing time as well. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith are solid tournament options in a nice matchup.
5-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Alex Caruso, Patrick Williams, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: Coby White, Andre Drummond
GPP Sleeper: Ayo Dosunmu, Coby White, Andre Drummond, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith
Detroit Pistons @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -8.0
Starting with the Pistons, they should have James Wiseman available in this one so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed if he actually does enter the starting lineup. I would think it’s not easy to do with Jalen Duren playing so well, but it is the Pistons so… I’ll operate under the assumption he comes off of the bench and Duren will be the guy you want here. That said, if Wiseman starts, he’s far too cheap and would look like an elite-value option. Bojan Bogdanovic had a massive game last time out and will continue to play big minutes, I have no issue going right back to the well with him. Jaden Ivey has at least 31 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and makes sense as a tournament option in this one. Meanwhile, Killian Hayes hasn’t been in the best form, but the price tag does make sense if you happen to fall on him. Then Isaiah Stewart will be impacted by Wiseman as well, but I’m okay going back to him in this one until we see what Wiseman’s role will truly be. From the Celtics, we’ll need to keep an eye on the status for both Jayson Tatum and Derrick White, they’re both true question marks in this one… that said, I’m going to leave most of this breakdown for our Breaking News Channel, it’s incredibly hard to break this team down until we know who’s in and who’s out because we’ll likely have a ton of value yet again from this team. They all had a big night last night, outside of Pritchard, and would look good again in this one.
5-star play: Bos TBD
4-star play: Jalen Duren, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Bos TBD
Deeper Value: Bos TBD
GPP Sleeper: James Wiseman, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Stewart, Bos TBD
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.0
Starting with the Knicks, Josh Hart has been great since coming over from the Blazers, he’s not playing as many minutes but he’s performing extremely well. His price tag hasn’t really moved and looks like a solid option in all formats. Julius Randle is averaging 48.7 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Hawks this season and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. I don’t love the price tag on Jalen Brunson but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s shown as of late. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games and gets a great matchup in this one. Then, RJ Barrett had one of the worst games of his career and has been in foul trouble as of late… that said, he does have SF eligibility and should continue to play big minutes. From the Hawks, Trae Young kept it rolling last time out but has struggled in this matchup this season. That said, as long as he continues to be under $10k, I’m going to have interest. Dejounte Murray isn’t a guy I love at this price tag when Young is in there, on a big slate like this I can’t imagine I get to a whole lot of him. Clint Capela has been good over his last few but the minutes are in that 25 range where I’d prefer them to be around 30 which makes him more of a secondary option, although the price tag is nice. Bogdan Bogdanovic hasn’t been great in his last couple, but obviously, the matchup is nice, I just assume we can fine better options on this slate. The same can be said for De’Andre Hunter and John Collins, just not guys I can see prioritizing in this one… both guys have been good though, so no issue with them as secondary pieces. If Collins is forced to miss again we can give a small boost to a lot of the team.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, Trae Young
4-star play: Josh Hart, RJ Barrett, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Isaiah Hartenstein, RJ Barrett, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Saddiq Bey
Miami Heat @ Brooklyn Nets
Vegas Total: 214.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -1.0
Starting with the Heat, they’ll be without Tyler Herro, Kyle Lowry, and Victor Oladipo again in this one. We should see guys like Gabe Vincent and Max Strus back in the starting lineup with these guys out. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Gabe Vincent – 21.8% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
- Max Strus – 19.2% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Caleb Martin – 16.5% usage rate; 0.68 fpm
- Jimmy Butler – 26.4% usage rate; 1.47 fpm
- Bam Adebayo – 24.8% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
I would expect the starting lineup to play all the minutes they can handle again in this one and will look like nice options. This whole team was pretty chalky last time they were on the slate before some other news opened things up. Strus, Butler, and Bam are my favorite options at the moment. From the Nets, Spencer Dinwiddie has been thrown into a large role as expected on this team, and is in charge of running the offense. I don’t love the matchup but the price tag has come down to a much more playable range. Cam Thomas has moved back to the bench which takes him out of play for me at this price tag. The price tag on Nicolas Claxton has come down but so has his production and minutes making him more of a GPP option. Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges have been fine since making their Nets’ debut but not guys I think we need to prioritize by any means. The price tag is better on Johnson, but we’re probably seeing more consistent production from Bridges, both guys are secondary options for me. Then Dorian Finney-Smith immediately jumped in and is playing more minutes than Ben Simmons, he would be my preferred option if you’re going to either of them in this one. Simmons is a complete fade right now as he’s operating as the third-string center.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Max Strus
4-star play: Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent, Spencer Dinwiddie
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Nic Claxton, Cam Johnson, Mikal Bridges, Dorian Finney-Smith
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 216.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.0
Starting with the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has at least 58 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here in hopes he can keep the heater rolling. I don’t love the price tag on Darius Garland, I would rather just find the salary to get up to Mitchell if possible. Evan Mobley has been great as of late as well but has come down to Earth over the last couple of games. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range. Both Mobley and Allen will have their hands full with Embiid down low in this one, however. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid had a tough game last time out and gets a bad matchup with this Cavs team in this one. He’s pretty matchup proof but if you need a tie-breaker between him and another spend-up option, there it is. James Harden has at least 49 DraftKings points in four straight games and is a guy I like going back to even in a tougher matchup with this Cavs defense. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are GPP guys who would see a boost should Embiid end up sitting, but I’m operating under the assumption that he’s good to go here. Maxey had a massive bounce-back game last time out and has seen his minutes trend in the right direction over the last few games.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell
4-star play: Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, James Harden, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Okc -10.0
Starting with the Rockets, Alperen Sengun hasn’t been in the best form over his last few games but is averaging 40.4 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Thunder this season. I have no issue going right back to the well on him in this one. I like the price tag on Jalen Green a good amount and has a 31.3% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Kevin Porter Jr. off of the court this season. KJ Martin and Jabari Smith Jr. are similar options in their price range and have both been in good form, I have no issue going right back to both of them in this one. Then guys like Tari Eason and Jae’Sean Tate are fine secondary options with Eric Gordon traded which free’s up minutes for the rest of this team. From the Thunder, Lu Dort is being eased back in but has seen his minutes trend in the right direction. That said, he’s not a guy I want exposure to until he’s back to his full role. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to look like an elite spend-up option, he’s averaging 51.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Rockets this season. Josh Giddey is fine as well, he’s generally not a guy I prioritize when SGA is available, but he makes sense as a roster filler. Then guys like Jalen Williams and Kenrich Williams are fine secondary options to round out this team.
5-star play: Alperen Sengun, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Jalen Green, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate, Kenrich Williams
Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -8.5
Starting with the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson will continue to look good here and play great minutes. He has a 28.6% usage rate and 1.14 fantasy points per minute with Malik Beasley and Mike Conley off of the court this season and this is a great fast-paced matchup. Talen Horton-Tucker is a guy we need to jump off of with his price increase and Clarkson back in there. We saw why last time out when we saw his minutes drop to 19. He’s not a guy that the Jazz are prioritizing getting minutes to, so I’ll be underweight on him in this one. I do like going right back to Collin Sexton here as well, his price tag has come up but he’s going to continue to start at point guard in a nice matchup. We know he can produce when given the opportunity and will look good again in this one. Lauri Markkanen will need to take a bigger role in this offense and has been pretty consistent as of late as well. Walker Kessler was a big disappointment in a great spot against the Turner-less Pacers last time out. That said, he gets another nice matchup against the Adam-less Grizzlies here. He’ll probably still need to deal with some Jackson down low, but I have no issue with getting to him at this price tag. Then Kelly Olynyk has been in good form with at least 36 FanDuel points in two of his last three games and makes plenty of sense in this one. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant is going to look great, this Jazz team is not good defensively, he’s going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate. Jaren Jackson will be more of a GPP option due to the volatility and his foul trouble issues, but he does have a nice ceiling in a nice matchup. We know Desmond Bane is going to continue his consistency and looks like a nice option in all formats as well. Xavier Tillman should continue to start for Adams here and makes sense as a value option but don’t expect a massive ceiling from him. Then guys like Dillon Brooks and Brandon Clarke are solid GPP options to round out the team.
5-star play: Collin Sexton, Ja Morant
4-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Kelly Olynyk, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Talen Horton-Tucker, Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks
Dallas Mavericks @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Den -5.5
Starting with the Mavs, Luka Doncic bounced back a bit last time out and has seen his price tag come down slightly. It’s hard for me to love him now that Kyrie is in the backcourt taking some of that usage and production… that said, he’s firmly in play as a spend-up option on this slate. Speaking of Kyrie Irving, he has been great since Luka returned with at least 52 DraftKings points in each game. I don’t love the price tag, but it’s hard to ignore that production. Christian Wood was able to get his minutes over 20 last time out but I still don’t trust him to get enough minutes to be able to pay off a GPP value at this price tag. Finally, Josh Green is going to continue to play big minutes, and makes sense as a secondary option to round out this team. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate… he has at least 67 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. I love the matchup against this Dallas frontcourt who isn’t stopping anyone right now. Jamal Murray has missed their last few games with that knee issue and comes in as questionable here. He was in great form before missing these last few games, I would have no issue going back to him assuming he’s not limited in any sense. Michael Porter Jr. will look like a solid option in GPPs if Murray is forced to miss again, he’s around a fantasy point per minute with him off of the court this season. Then Aaron Gordon missed their last game as well but had a massive night in a revenge game against the Magic, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are secondary GPP options… but don’t feel the need to chase that Brown game when everyone was out, that said, he would start if Murray ends up missing again.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Josh Green, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr., Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bruce Brown
New Orleans Pelicans @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -4.0
Starting with the Pelicans, CJ McCollum ended up missing their last game and comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. That said, we may not get news on him and the other side of this game until after lock… so be prepared to pivot if needed. Brandon Ingram is going to look like a nice option yet again especially if McCollum ends up sitting, he’s been in great form and gets a revenge game against his old squad. Jonas Valanciunas is a GPP-only guy option due to his volatility, but we know the ceiling is there when he’s right. Then guys like Trey Murphy, Larry Nance, and Herb Jones are fine flyer options on the wing, but not guys we need to prioritize by any means… we would likely see Jose Alvarado in the starting lineup if McCollum is forced to miss as well. From the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley made their Lakers’ debut earlier in the week. Russell will be the only one in the starting lineup assuming they come in healthy, but Vanderbilt and Beasley have shown signs of nice production. That being said, it’s a 10-game slate, so I can’t say I would prioritize any of these guys if we assume health on this team. I don’t love Russell as long as Anthony Davis and LeBron James are in there but he’s a fine secondary option. LeBron and Davis are the obvious top plays on this team and are both great options in this matchup.
5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jonas Valanciunas, Trey Murphy, Larry Nance, Herb Jones, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
NBA Lock of the Day: Max Strus (DK – $5.0k; FD – $5.0k)
We’re waiting on a bunch of news on this slate, so I’ll consider this a “tentative” lock of the day. That said, I would expect Strus to start and play all the minutes he can handle with Herro, Oladipo, and Lowry all out again in this one. I do like the matchup with the Nets and would expect he plays around 40 minutes with multi-position eligibility. I’m not saying he’s the sexiest play on the slate, but that SG/SF eligibility helps make roster construction work in a great spot for a shorthanded Miami team. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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