Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/14:
Feb 7, 2023; Orlando, Florida, USA; Orlando Magic guard Markelle Fultz (20) looks to pass against the New York Knicks during the second quarter at Amway Center. Mandatory Credit: Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k last weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Tor -6.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero is fine due to the multi-position eligibility but would be more of a GPP guy, he has some volatility but I do like the matchup. Franz Wagner has been held under 30 FanDuel points in seven straight games and would be more of a secondary option than anything. Wendell Carter Jr. hasn’t been in great form either, but the price tag is nice on a shorter slate. Markelle Fultz is a fine option as well, he was a big benefactor of Cole Anthony being out last night. I would imagine he comes in as questionable again here, so guys like Fultz and Jalen Suggs would benefit again if he’s forced to sit. That’s the issue with this team, they go like 10 guys deep with legit NBA guys which hurts their DFS appeal. While Jonathan Isaac is still floating around that 10-minute mark per night, so he’s not really in play quite yet. From the Raptors, OG Anunoby will continue to be out while Gary Trent Jr. and Precious Achiuwa come in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re both good to go here, but we should have this news before lock as it’s the first game on the slate. They’ll both play big minutes and look like a nice option in a great matchup with the Magic. Pascal Siakam is averaging 53.3 DraftKings points in three games against the Magic this season and looks great as well. Fred VanVleet bounced back in a big way last time out as well and is a guy I like going right back to even at an elevated price tag. Scottie Barnes hasn’t been in the best form but will play all the minutes he can handle in a great matchup. Then, Jakob Poeltl got the start last time out as this team was shorthanded, that said, I would think he sticks in the starting lineup going forward and looks great at this price tag.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., Jakob Poeltl, Precious Achiuwa
Deeper Value: Jalen Suggs
GPP Sleeper: Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Jalen Suggs, Chris Boucher
Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -9.5
Starting with the Celtics, they’re going to be very shorthanded here as Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart will be out. Robert Williams and Grant Williams will come in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they play. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for a starting lineup, but I would imagine guys like Malcolm Brogdon and Sam Hauser are in the starting lineup and will look like great options at their current price tags. Below is how this team operates with Tatum, Brown, and Smart off of the court this season:
- Derrick White – 29.5% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Malcolm Brogdon – 36.0% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Sam Hauser – 17.4% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
- Al Horford – sample size too small
- Robert Williams – sample size too small
I would expect to see a good bump for Payton Pritchard as well here and is a nice value piece. Al Horford bounced back in a big way last time out and is a guy that seemingly always plays well against the Bucks, I have no issue with him at this price tag. White and Brogdon are pretty easily my favorite options in a fast-paced matchup with the Bucks but a lot of this team will come down to their starting lineup. From the Bucks, Khris Middleton is slowly getting his minutes up but it sure seems like they’re going to wait until the All-Star break to put him back into the starting lineup. The price tag has become interesting over the last few games and I don’t hate taking a shot on him in this one… as we’ve come to find out, SF can be a tough position to fill. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been in elite form and should be able to do whatever he wants in this one especially if both Williams’ are out for the Celtics. He’s going to look like a top spend-up option on the slate. Jrue Holiday has at least 37 DraftKings points in three straight games and makes sense in all formats again in this one. Brook Lopez had a massive game last time out against the Clippers and has been in great form as of late, I like going back to him even at an elevated price tag as well. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton with Bobby Portis still out.
5-star play: Derrick White, Malcolm Brogdon, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Sam Hauser, Al Horford, Robert Williams, Payton Pritchard, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Payton Pritchard, Blake Griffin
GPP Sleeper: Payton Pritchard, Blake Griffin, Grant Williams, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles
Sacramento Kings @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -2.5
Starting with the Kings, De’Aaron Fox has been great as of late with at least 49 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and makes sense as an option here. Domantas Sabonis hasn’t been in the best form as of late and I can’t say I love the matchup with Ayton down low. That said, we know the minutes will be there and the ceiling is huge. Then the group of Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Kevin Huerter all make sense as lineup fillers in a good matchup. Huerter and Murray looked great last time out, but they’ll all play big minutes. Terence Davis is a great value option as well with Malik Monk out again for this one, he’s been in great form. From the Suns, Devin Booker played 26 minutes in each game since returning from injury, and wouldn’t shock me if we see him closer to that 30 number in this one. I have no issue with him as a GPP option, but his ceiling is likely capped. I do like going right back to Deandre Ayton, he has at least 45 DraftKings points in three of his last four and the matchup is elite. Chris Paul has shown some nice consistency as well and makes plenty of sense in all formats. Guys like Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, and TJ Warren will need to play minutes with Bridges and Johnson out of town and Kevin Durant not quite ready. None of these guys are priorities, but make sense as roster fillers.
5-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter, Chris Paul, Devin Booker
Deeper Value: Josh Okogie, TJ Warren
GPP Sleeper: Terence Davis, Torrey Craig, Josh Okogie, TJ Warren, Damion Lee
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -9.0
Starting with the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Steph Curry meaning we can go right back to the well on guys like Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson. Poole would be my preferred option even after a tough game last night. Generally, Klay sits out on the back end of back to back’s but it sounds like he’s going to be good to go in this one, and looks like a nice option in all formats. Andrew Wiggins bounced back in a huge way last night and will look great yet again in this one. Then Draymond Green makes sense as a secondary option as well to round out this team. From the Clippers, they should have a full and healthy roster with newly acquired pieces such as Mason Plumlee, Eric Gordon, and Bones Hyland available to play. It’s going to be incredibly hard to break them down along with some of these ancillary Clippers pieces like Norman Powell and Ivica Zubac since they’ll be impacted as well. I think for now I’m just going to stick to the main guys in Kawhi Leonard and Paul George who look like great options. Obviously, it’s a shorter slate so you may fall on to some of these guys in a sprinkle of your lineups, which I would be okay with. All that said, I don’t expect any of the three newly acquired guys to start in their first game as a Clipper.
5-star play: Jordan Poole
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevon Looney, Donte DiVincenzo, Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac
Washington Wizards @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 236.0
Vegas Spread: Por -3.5
Starting with the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma has missed their last handful of games, so I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again in this one. Deni Avdija moved back to the bench even with Kuzma out, but the minutes and production were still there for him, and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to here. Below is how this team operates with Kuzma off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 18.1% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 32.1% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 17.9% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Kristaps Prozingis – 28.7% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 16.2% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
Corey Kispert jumped Avdija in the starting lineup, but I still much prefer Avdija off of the bench. Kristaps bounced back nicely last night and will look great in this matchup as well. Then Bradley Beal has seen his production trend in the right direction, I have no issue going right back to him here as well in a great matchup. From the Blazers, the price tag on Damian Lillard is way up but he’s averaging 54.0 DraftKings points per game in his last six games. I think there are worst spend-up options but there is some sticker shock here. Jerami Grant is a question mark here with that concussion issue, if he’s forced to miss we’ll see more minutes for guys like Nassir Little and Cam Reddish. I don’t love Anfernee Simons anytime Dame is in there and running the backcourt, but he’s a fine roster filler if you land on him. Then Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Jusuf Nurkic while Trendon Watford comes off of the bench, Eubanks is my preferred option but we’ve seen nice games out of both of them recently.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Damian Lillard
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Daniel Gafford, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Drew Eubanks
Deeper Value: Trendon Watford, Cam Reddish
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Daniel Gafford, Corey Kispert, Cam Reddish, Trendon Watford
NBA Lock of the Day: Malcolm Brogdon (DK – $5.7k; FD – $5.6k)
There’s a chance we could see Malcolm Brogdon in the starting lineup tonight, but even if he’s not, he’ll look like a great option at this price tag. The Celtics will be without Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, and Marcus Smart at the very least tonight. He has a 36% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with these guys off of the court this season… oh, and REVENGE GAME! At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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