Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/13:
Feb 11, 2023; New York, New York, USA; New York Knicks guard Josh Hart (3) dribbles up court during the first half against the Utah Jazz at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k last weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!
Atlanta Hawks @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: 240.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -5.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Hawks, Trae Young kept it rolling last time out and is averaging 47.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Hornets this season. He’ll look like a great option under $10k on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Dejounte Murray isn’t a guy I love at this price tag when Young is in there, on a big slate like this I can’t imagine I get to a whole lot of him. Clint Capela has been good over his last few but the minutes are in that 25 range where I’d prefer them to be around 30 which makes him more of a secondary option, although the price tag is nice. Bogdan Bogdanovic hasn’t been great in his last couple, but obviously, the matchup is nice, I just assume we can fine better options on this slate. The same can be said for De’Andre Hunter and John Collins, just not guys I can see prioritizing in this one… both guys have been good though, so no issue with them as secondary pieces. Newly acquired Saddiq Bey will throw a wrench into them as well. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball has at least 52 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is a guy I like going back to in a great matchup here. Terry Rozier had a rough game last time out but has been extremely good as of late and consistent relative to this price tag. Mark Williams has continued to start with Mason Plumlee traded and his price tag hasn’t come up enough. He got into some foul trouble against Jokic last time out, but he’s a guy I’ll go right back to in this one. He was a core play for me last time he was on the slate and is looking similar on this slate. That said, I do think Nick Richards is an interesting leverage piece if you want to climb over those Williams teams, should he get into foul trouble again. I don’t love the price tag on PJ Washington but he’s shown a nice ceiling over the last few weeks if you want to take a shot in tournaments. Then a guy like Gordon Hayward is a GPP-only guy to round out the team.
5-star play: Trae Young, LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, PJ Washington, Terry Rozier
Deeper Value: Mark Williams, Nick Richards
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins, Saddiq Bey, Gordon Hayward, Nick Richards, PJ Washington
San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -14.5
Starting with the Spurs, Tre Jones will continue to be out but Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan should be good to go. With Jones out again, I’ll go right back to the well with Devonte’ Graham even if he continues to come off of the bench. He saw 24 minutes last time out but still produced nicely, I probably wouldn’t bank on four blocks/steals again, but at the price tag, he’s certainly viable. Keldon returned last time out and looked good, he’s more of a GPP guy in a tough matchup, however. The same can be said for Sochan who returned in a big way last time out. He only played 21 minutes, but it was more than enough time to put up big numbers. Zach Collins kept it rolling last time out and should start again in this one, I have no issue with him in a tough matchup as well. Then a guy like Malaki Branham is more of a tournament option than anything. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell had a big game last time out and gets an elite matchup here, I do worry about a blowout, but we know how predicting those goes… he’ll look good in this spot. I don’t love the price tag on Darius Garland, I would rather just find the salary to get up to Mitchell if possible. Evan Mobley has been great as of late as well and is averaging 41.1 DraftKings points over his last six games, I would have no issue going right back to him in this one. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Zach Collins, Keldon Johnson, Devonte’ Graham, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: Devonte’ Graham
GPP Sleeper: Keldon Johnson, Jeremy Sochan, Darius Garland, Ricky Rubio
Utah Jazz @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Ind -2.0
Starting with the Jazz, Jordan Clarkson returned last time out and had a rough night shooting but was still able to produce nicely. He has a 28.1% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute with Malik Beasley and Mike Conley off of the court this season and this is a great matchup. Talen Horton-Tucker was great again last time out even with Clarkson back in there. If he can keep playing around 27 minutes he’s going to look like a nice option at this price tag. I do like going right back to Collin Sexton here as well, his price tag has come up but he’s going to continue to start at point guard in an elite matchup. We know he can produce when given the opportunity and will look good again in this one. Lauri Markkanen will need to take a bigger role in this offense especially if Clarkson ends up sitting, he’ll look like a solid option in all formats. Walker Kessler has at least 33 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here as well. Kelly Olynyk is another guy that will benefit from these guys getting shipped out, he’s going to play big minutes and always has the ability to rack up a double-double or get hot from behind the three-point line. From the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton hasn’t been great over their last few games but bounced back nicely against the Wizards last time out. He comes in as questionable here, so make sure he’s good to go but I do like the matchup a good amount. Myles Turner is another guy that we’ll need to watch the Breaking News Feed on due to his questionable tag but looks like a solid tournament option. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith are tournament-only options in a tough matchup.
5-star play: Collin Sexton, Tyrese Haliburton
4-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Talen Horton-Tucker, Walker Kessler, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield
Deeper Value: Talen Horton-Tucker
GPP Sleeper: Kelly Olynyk, Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Houston Rockets @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -14.0
Starting with the Rockets, Alperen Sengun had a tough game last time out and will have his hands full against Joel Embiid down low in this one making him more of a tournament option in this one. I like the price tag on Jalen Green a good amount and has a 31.0% usage rate and 1.05 fantasy points per minute with Kevin Porter Jr. off of the court this season. KJ Martin and Jabari Smith Jr. are similar options in their price range and have both been in good form, I have no issue going right back to both of them in this one. Then guys like Tari Eason and Jae’Sean Tate are fine secondary options with Eric Gordon traded which free’s up minutes for the rest of this team. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid has at least 58 FanDuel points in back-to-back games and should be able to do whatever he wants in this one. This is another case where I worry about a blowout slightly, but again, if it’s a blowout Embiid is going to be a big piece in doing so. James Harden gets a revenge game against the Rockets here and has been in great form as of late, I’m not sure he has a ton of revenge left in him against this Houston team, but it never hurts to throw the narrative in there. Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey are GPP guys who would see a boost should Embiid end up sitting, but I’m operating under the assumption that he’s good to go here. Maxey has not been good since coming off of the bench, at least in terms of DFS production.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, KJ Martin, Jabari Smith, James Harden
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tari Eason, Jae’Sean Tate, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey
Denver Nuggets @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate… he has at least 67 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. It’s not the best matchup, but it doesn’t really matter when it comes to Jokic. Jamal Murray has missed their last few games with that knee issue and comes in as questionable here. He was in great form before missing these last few games, I would have no issue going back to him assuming he’s not limited in any sense. We had the full Michael Porter Jr. experience over the last week as he looked great and then hasn’t been great over the last couple of games. Then Aaron Gordon missed their last game as well but had a massive night in a revenge game against the Magic, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are secondary GPP options… but don’t feel the need to chase that Brown game when everyone was out, that said, he would start if Murray ends up missing again. From the Heat, they’ll continue to be without Victor Oladipo and Kyle Lowry, so we should see Gabe Vincent back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Gabe Vincent – 18.9% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- Tyler Herro – 27.6% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Caleb Martin – 16.2% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Jimmy Butler – 25.1% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
- Bam Adebayo – 26.5% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
Vincent has been fine in his price range and is a solid option as a roster filler. Tyler Herro came down to Earth last time out after a massive game against the Rockets, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Jimmy Butler bounced back nicely last time out and is a guy I don’t have a problem with going back to, but we haven’t really seen a ceiling game from him in a while. Then Caleb Martin has at least 32 DraftKings points in two of his last four and should see big minutes.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Caleb Martin, Gabe Vincent
Brooklyn Nets @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -2.0
Starting with the Nets, Spencer Dinwiddie has been thrown into a large role as expected on this team and is in charge of running the offense. He didn’t have the best game last time out but this is a nice bounce-back spot and will continue to play big minutes. The minutes on Cam Thomas came down last time out as he moved back to the bench, assuming he’s off of the bench again in this one I’ll probably be off of him. The price tag on Nicolas Claxton has come down to a range where he’s going to be hard to ignore. He had a rough game against Embiid last time out, but I love going right back to him here, he’s too cheap. Cam Johnson and Mikal Bridges made their Nets debut last time out and both looked pretty good. The price tag is better on Johnson, but we’re probably seeing more consistent production from Bridges, both guys are secondary options for me. Then Dorian Finney-Smith immediately jumped in and is playing more minutes than Ben Simmons, he would be my preferred option if you’re going to either of them in this one. From the Knicks, Josh Hart made his Knicks debut off of the bench but still played 26 minutes against the Jazz last time out. I would expect him to come off of the bench moving forward but should still play good minutes. He’s been in good form and is a fine GPP option. Julius Randle is averaging 44.9 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Knicks this season and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. I don’t love the price tag on Jalen Brunson but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s shown as of late. He has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games. Then, RJ Barrett is a fine option to round out the team, the minutes will be huge and he has the all-coveted SF eligibility.
5-star play: Nic Claxton, Julius Randle
4-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dorian Finney-Smith, Ben Simmons, Josh Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein
Orlando Magic @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 227.0
Vegas Spread: Chi -5.0
Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero is fine due to the multi-position eligibility but would be more of a GPP guy, he has some volatility but I do like the matchup. Franz Wagner has been held under 30 FanDuel points in six straight games and would be more of a secondary option than anything. Wendell Carter Jr. gets a revenge game against he team that drafted him and is a fine option here, although that will be a pretty similar answer to most guys on this team. Markelle Fultz is a fine option as well, that’s the issue with this team, they go like 10 guys deep with legit NBA guys which hurts their DFS appeal. Jalen Suggs is a fine value option but I would imagine we can find better value on this slate… he’s been in good form as of late. While Jonathan Isaac is still floating around that 10-minute mark per night, so he’s not really in play quite yet. From the Bulls, We know the deal with this team by now, the production starts and ends with the big three in this lineup. Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are coming off of down games last time out. It can be hard to predict which of the three will have the big game and who will have the dud on a nightly basis, however. The matchup is good, however, so I have no issue going right back to any of them… we also get a revenge game for Vucevic if you want to go down narrative street. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso, but we can find better value options.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr., Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Nikola Vucevic
Deeper Value: Alex Caruso
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso
New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Okc -2.5
Starting with the Pelicans, CJ McCollum comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding his status. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here for the sake of this article. McCollum isn’t a guy I love with Brandon Ingram back in there, but I’ll have no issue if you need to go to him as a last piece in or if he helps make your roster work. Speaking of Ingram, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in four straight games and makes sense in all formats. Jonas Valanciunas is a GPP-only guy option due to his volatility, but we know the ceiling is there when he’s right. Then guys like Trey Murphy, Larry Nance, and Herb Jones are fine flyer options on the wing, but not guys we need to prioritize by any means. From the Thunder, Lu Dort returned last time out to play 20 minutes and looked great in doing so. That said, if you told me he was going to play only 20 minutes, I wouldn’t touch him as a DFS option… so I’ll wait until his minutes come up. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will continue to look like an elite spend-up option, he’s averaging 59.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Pels this season. Josh Giddey is fine as well, he won’t be a guy I want to go too crazy with but similar to McCollum, if you land on him I have no issue with it. Then guys like Jalen Williams and Kenrich Williams are fine secondary options to round out this team.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: Jaylin Williams
GPP Sleeper: Jonas Valanciunas, Trey Murphy, Larry Nance, Herb Jones, Kenrich Williams
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -7.5
Starting with the Timberwolves, Mike Conley made his debut last time out and looked fine but lost some run due to a blowout. He should see 30+ minutes pretty consistently and is a fine mid-range option in all formats. Rudy Gobert and Kyle Anderson are questionable again here, but I’ll operate under the assumption they’re good to go. Their nagging injuries are clearly bothering them as the production has been down for both of them, they’ll both be GPP options in this one. Anthony Edwards had a tough game last time out as well but this is a nice bounce-back spot against a Mavericks team that isn’t playing any sort of defense right now. Then guys like Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, and Jaylen Nowell are fine roster fillers but would see a boost if one or both of Gobert and Anderson miss this one. From the Mavs, Luka Doncic returned to the lineup last time out and debuted the new Luka/Kyrie backcourt. Luka is going to lose some usage with Kyrie back there with him and that was evident on Saturday. At this price tag I think I’ll be lower on him as this offense figures out how to play around Kyrie as well. Speaking of Kyrie Irving, he produced better than Luka in that game but I still don’t love the price tag as he battles for usage with Luka, but he’s been good since joining the Mavs. Christian Wood has been held under 20 minutes in each game since coming back from injury, I don’t see a reason to go back to him here. Finally, Josh Green is going to continue to play big minutes, and makes sense as a secondary option to round out this team.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Mike Conley, Kyrie Irving, Luka Doncic, Josh Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Rudy Gobert, Kyle Anderson, Naz Reid, Jaden McDaniels, Jaylen Nowell, Christian Wood
Washington Wizards @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -4.0
Starting with the Wizards, Kyle Kuzma will come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s out after missing their last game as well. Deni Avdija moved back to the bench even with Kuzma out, but the minutes and production were still there for him, and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to here. Below is how this team operates with Kuzma off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 18.1% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 32.1% usage rate; 1.27 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 17.9% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Kristaps Prozingis – 28.7% usage rate; 1.35 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 16.2% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
Corey Kispert jumped Avdija in the starting lineup, but I still much prefer Avdija off of the bench. Kristaps came down to Earth a bit last time out but I love the matchup against an undersized Warriors team that wants to push the pace. Then Bradley Beal has seen his production trend in the right direction, I have no issue going right back to him here as well in a great matchup. From the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Steph Curry meaning we can go right back to the well on guys like Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson. Poole would be my preferred option, but it’s a great matchup for both of them. Andrew Wiggins struggled last time out and is questionable here. Assuming he plays, he’s more of a secondary option if you need to fill a forward position. Then Draymond Green makes sense as a secondary option as well to round out this team.
5-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Jordan Poole
4-star play: Deni Avdija, Bradley Beal, Daniel Gafford, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Corey Kispert, Daniel Gafford, Kevon Looney
Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Por -2.0
Starting with the Lakers, D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt, and Malik Beasley made their Lakers’ debut last time out. Russell was the only one of the three to be in the starting lineup, but Vanderbilt was able to produce nicely off of the bench. He only played 17 minutes which is concerning for being DFS viable moving forward, but at this price tag, I guess we can make a case for him. I don’t love Russell as long as Anthony Davis and LeBron James are in there but he’s a fine secondary option. LeBron had the big game between the two stars last time out, but they’ll both look like great spend-up options in a nice matchup against the Blazers here. Speaking of the Blazers, the price tag on Damian Lillard is way up but he’s averaging 50.6 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Lakers this season. I think there are worst spend-up options but there is some sticker shock here. Jerami Grant comes in as questionable, so make sure he’s good to go but will continue to play all the minutes he can handle, and makes sense in all formats here. I don’t love Anfernee Simons anytime Dame is in there and running the backcourt, but he’s a fine roster filler if you land on him. Then Drew Eubanks will continue to start for Jusuf Nurkic while Trendon Watford comes off of the bench, Eubanks is my preferred option but we’ve seen nice games out of both of them recently.
5-star play: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Damian Lillard
4-star play: D’Angelo Russell, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Drew Eubanks
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Anfernee Simons, Drew Eubanks, Trendon Watford
NBA Lock of the Day: Mark Williams (DK – $4.0k; FD – $5.2k)
I’m going right back to the well with Mark Williams in this one. He got into quick foul trouble against Nikola Jokic last time out but gets a solid bounce-back spot in this one. He’s going to continue to start with Mason Plumlee traded and has averaged 1.19 DraftKings/1.25 FanDuel points per minute with Plumlee off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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