DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate - Feb. 11th, 2023

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 2/11:

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Before I get started, I need to shoutout a few huge VIP Member wins – “Phamacist” took 1st place in the $300k Fadeway contest which netted him $100k over the weekend while “da_banditz” grabbed 1st place on FanDuel as well winning $10k- congrats guys!

Denver Nuggets @ Charlotte Hornets

Vegas Total: 237.0

Vegas Spread: Den -8.5

We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate… he dropped 95.75 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this season. Big men against the Hornets is going to be a thing for the rest of the season, Jokic should do whatever he wants here. Jamal Murray has been on a heater and now has at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last five and will look like a good option in all formats again in this one… he was unreal last time out. He ended up missing their last game, but I would expect he returns in this one. We had the full Michael Porter Jr. experience this week as he looked great and then had a dud against the Magic with Murray out. He’ll be a tournament-only option even in a nice matchup. Then Aaron Gordon had a massive night in a revenge game against the Magic, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in back-to-back games. Guys like Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown are secondary GPP options… but don’t feel the need to chase that Brown game when everyone was out, that said, he would start if Murray ends up missing again. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball bounced back last time out against Boston and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Terry Rozier has been in solid form as well, he’s not a guy we need to prioritize but he’ll make sense in all formats. Mason Plumlee was traded at the deadline and we saw Mark Williams get the start last night and look great. His price hasn’t moved and will look like an elite value option yet again even in a tough matchup. He was a core play for me last night and was actually my 8x play of the day. That said, I do think Nick Richards is an interesting leverage piece if you want to climb over those Williams teams, should he get into foul trouble. I don’t love the price tag on PJ Washington but he’s shown a nice ceiling over the last few weeks if you want to take a shot in tournaments. Then a guy like Gordon Hayward is a GPP-only guy to round out the team.

5-star play: Nikola Jokic, LaMelo Ball, Mark Williams

4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, PJ Washington, Terry Rozier

Deeper Value: Mark Williams, Nick Richards

GPP Sleeper: Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Nick Richards, PJ Washington

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Miami Heat @ Orlando Magic

Vegas Total: 215.5

Vegas Spread: Mia -1.0

Starting with the Heat, they’ll continue to be without Victor Oladipo and Kyle Lowry, so we should see Gabe Vincent back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:

• Gabe Vincent – 19.0% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
• Tyler Herro – 27.7% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
• Caleb Martin – 16.2% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
• Jimmy Butler – 24.6% usage rate; 1.37 fpm
• Bam Adebayo – 27.5% usage rate; 1.35 fpm

Vincent has been fine in his price range and is a solid option as a roster filler. Tyler Herro had a massive game last night against the Rockets and makes sense in a great matchup again in this one. Jimmy Butler had a rough game and has been a guy I’ve had a hard time getting right this season, he’d be more of a secondary option, but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle. Then Caleb Martin has at least 32 DraftKings points in three of his last five and should see big minutes. From the Magic, it’s pretty ugly… the matchup stinks and this team is incredibly deep with DFS guys that all eat up each other’s production. Paolo Banchero is fine due to the multi-position eligibility but would be more of a GPP guy. Franz Wagner has been held under 30 FanDuel points in five straight games and would be more of a secondary option than anything. Wendell Carter Jr. will have his hands full with Bam down low, but if he can stay out of foul trouble they’ll need his size so the minutes should be there, and will look like a solid GPP option. Markelle Fultz is a fine option as well, that’s the issue with this team, they go like 10 guys deep with legit NBA guys which hurts their DFS appeal. Jalen Suggs is a fine value option but I would imagine we can find better value on this slate. While Jonathan Isaac is still floating around that 10-minute mark per night, so he’s not really in play quite yet.

5-star play: Bam Adebayo

4-star play: Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent, Jimmy Butler

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Caleb Martin, Paolo Banchero, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs

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Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards

Vegas Total: 234.0

Vegas Spread: Was -5.5

Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton hasn’t been great over their last few games but gets a nice bounce-back spot here against the Wizards. He’s averaging 45.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Wizards this season and would be a guy I like going back to especially if his game logs scare the public off. Myles Turner came crashing down to Earth last time out but had one of those games where he just didn’t play very much. He’s a fine bounce-back candidate here as well, but probably more of a tournament guy. Buddy Hield isn’t my favorite option at this price tag, but the ceiling is obviously there for him. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin and Aaron Nesmith are tournament-only options in a tough matchup. From the Wizards, they’ll be without Kyle Kuzma again in this one, so I would anticipate we see Deni Avdija right back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Kuzma off of the court this season:

• Monte Morris – 17.9% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
• Bradley Beal – 31.6% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
• Deni Avdija – 17.8% usage rate; 0.89 fpm
• Kristaps Prozingis – 29.4% usage rate; 1.36 fpm
• Daniel Gafford – 16.4% usage rate; 1.14 fpm

Deni just gets it done when he’s in there and gets the minutes, the matchup is great, and will be a guy I go right back to here. Kristaps had a massive game last time out and now has at least 50 DraftKings points in four of his last five games. Then Bradley Beal has seen his production trend in the right direction, I have no issue going right back to him here as well in a great matchup.

5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Kristaps Porzingis

4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Deni Avdija, Bradley Beal, Daniel Gafford

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith, Monte Morris, Daniel Gafford

Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!

Utah Jazz @ New York Knicks

Vegas Total: 229.0

Vegas Spread: Nyk -5.5

Starting with the Jazz, they were without Jordan Clarkson last night and he comes in as questionable again in this one which is key news we’ll need on this slate. Talen Horton-Tucker wasn’t a guy I loved until Clarkson was ruled out which opened up more minutes for him, so I’ll be looking at something similar tonight. I do like going right back to Collin Sexton here, however. Similar to Mark Williams, he was a core play for me last night and his price tag hasn’t moved. He’s going to continue to start with Conley and Beasley traded and we know he can be productive from what we’ve seen from him in his Cleveland days. Lauri Markkanen will need to take a bigger role in this offense especially if Clarkson ends up sitting, he’ll look like a solid option in all formats. Walker Kessler has at least 33 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to here as well. Kelly Olynyk is another guy that will benefit from these guys getting shipped out, he’s going to play big minutes and always has the ability to rack up a double-double or get hot from behind the three-point line. Lastly, Ochai Agbaji continue to start last night… we can do better on this slate. From the Knicks, I would think Josh Hart will be available here, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, as I don’t think anyone knows if he’ll jump Quentin Grimes in the starting lineup or not. Julius Randle struggled in this matchup earlier this season but it’s a solid matchup and we know the minutes will be there for him. I don’t love the price tag on Jalen Brunson but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s shown as of late. Then, RJ Barrett is a fine option to round out the team, the minutes will be huge and he has the all-coveted SF eligibility.

5-star play: Collin Sexton, Julius Randle

4-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Kelly Olynyk, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett

Deeper Value: Talen Horton-Tucker

GPP Sleeper: Talen Horton-Tucker, Ochai Agbaji, Quentin Grimes, Josh Hart, Isaiah Hartenstein

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San Antonio Spurs @ Atlanta Hawks

Vegas Total: 239.0

Vegas Spread: Atl -14.0

Starting with the Spurs, I’m going to leave this team for the Breaking News Channel and we’ll touch on it more in the VIP Discord as we get closer to lock due to half of the team being a question mark. Keldon Johnson and Tre Jones were both unavailable last night and the same can be said for Khem Birch as he comes over in the Jakob Poeltl trade. If these guys are all out again, we fire up what we went to last night with guys like Devonte’ Graham and Zach Collins, but let’s revisit this in about seven hours. From the Hawks, Trae Young had a massive game last time out and gets an elite matchup again in this one, he’ll look like a great option in all formats. Dejounte Murray gets a revenge game against his old squad, but I’m not sure how vengeful he can be that he’s not on a tanking team. He’s going to play all the minutes he can handle but is more of a tournament option. Clint Capela bounced back last time out but the minutes are in that 25 range where I’d prefer them to be around 30 which makes him more of a secondary option, although the price tag is nice. Bogdan Bogdanovic had a floor game last time out and is more of a GPP option again in this one. The same can be said for De’Andre Hunter and John Collins, just not guys I can see prioritizing in this one… both guys have been good though, so no issue with them as secondary pieces.

5-star play: SAS TBD, Trae Young

4-star play: SAS TBD, Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela

Deeper Value: SAS TBD

GPP Sleeper: Dejounte Murray, Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, John Collins

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Chicago Bulls @ Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Total: 219.5

Vegas Spread: Cle -4.5

Starting with the Bulls, they didn’t do ANYTHING at the deadline, so we get to deal with the same old Bulls in this one. We know the deal with this team by now, the production starts and ends with the big three in this lineup. Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are coming off of down games last time out. It can be hard to predict which of the three will have the big game and who will have the dud on a nightly basis, however. This matchup stinks as well, I just don’t see myself getting to much of anything from these guys. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso, but we can find better value options. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has been pretty volatile as of late but it’s been mostly due to blowouts. The matchup is great here and is a guy that makes sense in all formats. I don’t love the price tag on Darius Garland he’s been better than Mitchell for cheaper. Evan Mobley has been great as of late as well and is averaging 42.4 DraftKings points over his last six games. Then Jarrett Allen has been much better over his last handful of games as well, he’ll be right there with Mobley in that mid-to-high range.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 238.5

Vegas Spread: Gsw -2.0

Starting with the Lakers, they made a big splash last night as well and won’t have Russell Westbrook moving forward which is best for all parties. I’m just going to operate under the assumption that LeBron James and Anthony Davis will play moving forward because they always have some sort of injury designation, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as always. It looks like D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, and Jarred Vanderbilt will all make their Lakers’ debut here but are probably GPP-only plays until we figure out how they’ll operate in this offense. I do love going right back to Anthony Davis at a cheaper price tag than James, however. I like the matchup against an undersized Warriors team. The same can be said for LeBron who dropped 62.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. The rest of this team isn’t anything I think we need to prioritize, but Dennis Schroder is someone we can go back to fading with this team getting more bodies. From the Warriors, they’ll be without Steph Curry for the near future and Jordan Poole will slide into that starting point guard slot. I was expecting Kevon Looney to start as well, but instead, it was Jonathan Kuminga, so I would assume we get the same lineup in this one. That said, it wouldn’t surprise me to see them go to Looney here due to the Lakers’ size. Below is how this team operates with Curry off of the court this season:

• Jordan Poole – 34.5% usage rate; 1.14 fpm
• Klay Thompson – 27.9% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
• Andrew Wiggins – 22.8% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
• Jonathan Kuminga – 20.0% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
• Draymond Green – 11.5% usage rate; 0.91 fpm

Poole and Klay see the biggest rates increase as well as Wiggins which makes sense, Green and Looney aren’t big usage guys in the first place. I have no issue with any of these guys, they’re not really priced for Curry to be out, so there is some meat on the bone here.

5-star play: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jordan Poole

4-star play: Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green

Deeper Value: Jonathan Kuminga

GPP Sleeper: D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Kevon Looney, Jonathan Kuminga

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Dallas Mavericks @ Sacramento Kings

Vegas Total: 235.5

Vegas Spread: Sac -1.0

Starting with the Mavs, I’m going to operate under the assumption that Luka Doncic is good to go here and we see the debut of the Mavs’ new backcourt. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for confirmation of this news, however. I don’t know that I want to go to anything on this team with that said, it’ll be interesting to see how much usage Kyrie Irving takes away from Luka and visa-versa. They’re both priced up and even in a great matchup, I just don’t think I want to go here quite yet. The same can be said for Christian Wood who continues to come off of the bench and hasn’t played more than 20 minutes since returning from injury. From the Kings, De’Aaron Fox has been great as of late with at least 49 DraftKings points in four of his last five games, and makes sense as an option here. Domantas Sabonis hasn’t been in the best form as of late but the matchup is really tough to ignore against this Mavericks defense, he’s going to look great here. Then the group of Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, and Kevin Huerter all make sense as lineup fillers in a good matchup. Huerter and Murray looked great last time out, but they’ll all play big minutes.

5-star play: None

4-star play: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Kevin Huerter

NBA Lock of the Day: Collin Sexton (DK – $4.0k; FD – $5.5k)

I’m going right back to the well with Collin Sexton tonight even if Jordan Clarkson is able to return. Sexton is going to continue to start with Beasley and Conley traded at the deadline. He should continue to play around 30 minutes and has a 21.5% usage rate and 0.94 fantasy points per minute. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!

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