The Draft Kings Milly Maker contest is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing the lineups of past Milly Maker winners.
Jan 8, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen (13) scores a past Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons (31) in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports
The thing about Week 18 is we can study all the playoff scenarios and make educated guesses on what we think coaches will do with their players, but nobody really knows, and that couldn’t be more evident than the Chargers playing their starters well into the 2nd half in a meaningless game and Keenan Allen going off for 102 yards and 2 touchdowns.
To highlight the craziness of the slate, we had a David Mills stack winning the Milly Maker well into the afternoon games and Keenan Allen – who had 2 touchdowns on the entire season – scores 2 touchdowns in a game the Chargers oddly played their starters with nothing to gain and everything to lose. Luckily DK user SteveNebraska55 had everything to gain with all the Keenan Allen usage that was the difference maker between first and second place in the Draft Kings Milly Maker contest.
| Week 18 Milly Maker Winner | Points |
| Joe Burrow | 12.6 |
| Cam Akers | 18.8 |
| Zack Moss | 24.1 |
| Keenan Allen | 33.2 |
| Jerry Jeudy | 27.3 |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 22.6 |
| Isaiah Likely | 21.3 |
| Davante Parker | 25.9 |
| Colts DST | 13 |
| Total | 198.8 |
Stacking
Primary Stack: Joe Burrow 12.6 + Ja’Marr Chase 22.6 + Isaiah Likely 21.3
Secondary Stacks: Zack Moss 24.1 + Colts DST 13
Keenan Allen 33.2 + Jerry Jeudy 27.3
Total Stacking Points: 154.2 (Primary: 56.6. Secondary: 97.6)
Total Stacking Ownership: 74.04% (Primary: 46.14%. Secondary: 27.88%)
This lineup saved me from having to write about a Davis Mills stacks so I appreciate that. Nonetheless, seeing an expensive Burrow/Chase stack be in the winning Milly Maker lineup while only scoring 35 points between the 2 players speaks to the randomness of the slate.
That wasn’t the stack that brought it home though. As we normally see when we have a QB + 1, (bring back or no bring back) is 1-2 secondary stacks and this lineup had 2 with Moss/Colts and Jeudy/Allen. Those 2 small stacks combined for 97 points across 4 positions.
In 18 weeks of the NFL Season, the winning Milly Maker contest featured a wining lineup with a primary stack of QB + 1 9 times.
NINE TIMES… Cue that Ferris Bueler line.
5 out of 9 times there was a bring back, 4 times there wasn’t a bring back. In the other 9 games with at least a QB + 2, there was at least one bring back 6 times.
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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 18 Milly Maker Winner | Ownership |
| Joe Burrow | 17.01% |
| Cam Akers | 24.32% |
| Zack Moss | 15.41% |
| Keenan Allen | 1.66% |
| Jerry Jeudy | 6.11% |
| Ja’Marr Chase | 21.89% |
| Isaiah Likely | 7.24% |
| Davante Parker | 1.23% |
| Colts DST | 4.70% |
| Total | 99.57% |
With so many starters sitting out, we knew all the random player combinations would provide a contrarian lineup as there was just too much uncertainty and too many value plays to sort through. This was never more evident than Keenan Allen being 1% owned because nobody really expected him to play. Week 18 was a fitting finish to the contrarian lineup run that we had since week 10. The 99% total ownership helped keep the seasonal average just under 110% – 108% over 18 weeks.
Top Leverage Plays
Keenan Allen at 1%
Top play on the entire slate at 1% ownership is the epitome of leverage. What made this play even better was it was a game stack, and the other player was low owned as well and finished just behind Allen.
Jerry Jeudy at 6%
Jeudy had a great ending to the 2022 season as him and Russ had a deep connection in week 18 with only 5 receptions for 154 yards. Jeudy was great leverage of lineups with higher priced studs like AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, and Ceedee Lamb who were all anywhere from 11-22% owned.
Davante Parker at 1%
Very low $3700 salary and he absolutely smashed it for 25.9 points. Parker was arguably the best play on the entire slate with his salary included. The trio of wide receivers here that all produced over 25 points at low ownership was what made this lineup.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 18 Milly Maker Winner | Pricing | Ownership |
| Joe Burrow | $7,300 | 1.72x |
| Cam Akers | $6,200 | 3.03x |
| Zack Moss | $5,200 | 4.63x |
| Keenan Allen | $6,900 | 4.81x |
| Jerry Jeudy | $6,300 | 4.33x |
| Ja’Marr Chase | $8,400 | 2.69x |
| Isaiah Likely | $2,800 | 7.60x |
| Davante Parker | $3,700 | 7x |
| Colts DST | $3,100 | 4.19x |
| Total | $49,900 | 3.98x |
The Parker and Likely plays are what made this lineup as both players hit over 7X their salary, averaging $3250 a piece. That kind of value made up for the expensive and under whelming stack of Burrow + Chase and afforded 5 players over 6k and 2 averaging $7850. (Burrow & Chase)
Another part of this lineup to note is that we had a $3100 Defense hit over 4X their salary. This marked the 8th time this season when we saw a winning Milly Maker lineup feature a DST over $3,000.
Ceiling
When we looked at the Vegas Lines early on in the week and saw a bunch 40-point projected game totals, it was a foreshadowing of what was to come.
On a slate where most of the best teams had little to play for and, even when they did, they mostly rested their starters as they were grinding out the clock to a victory, we could obviously expect lower fantasy scores. That’s exactly what happened as this was a very low Milly Maker winning score and surprisingly enough it was the 2nd lowest score of the season behind the week 11 score of 197 points.
Despite high Milly Maker winning scores of 284, 268, and 272 points, twice, we had many weeks of under 250 points; 11 weeks of under 250 points, to be exact, and that brought the season average to 240 points.
Not coincidentally, the lower scoring weeks usually coincided with skinnier stacks and the higher scoring weeks had thicker stacks which brings into question your general strategy going forward for large field GPP’s like the Milly Maker.
Do you change your stacking rules based on the slate, have a mix of QB + 1 and QB + 2 builds, or stick with one and know it’s a +EV decision over the long run to play the same way over and over?
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