Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/5:
Jan 3, 2023; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Jazz forward Jarred Vanderbilt (8) reacts after a foul against the Sacramento Kings during the first quarter at Vivint Arena. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Creveling-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Memphis Grizzlies @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -6.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Grizzlies, Desmond Bane had his best game since returning from injury last night in just 26 minutes. His price tag is still too cheap for his talent but the minutes are keeping it down, I don’t expect that to continue for long, he’s a great option in all formats here. Ja Morant was bitten by the blowout bug last night, he gets a nice bounce-back matchup here, and I have no issue going right back to the well with him. Jaren Jackson has at least 32 DraftKings points in three straight games and is another guy that should benefit from the matchup in this one. Dillon Brooks would be more of a secondary GPP option, especially with Bane back in the rotation. Steven Adams was my lock of the day on yesterday’s slate and he now has at least 35 DraftKings points in four straight. That number would’ve been much higher if they didn’t stomp the Hornets so badly last night, I like going right back to the well with him at a nice price tag. Brandon Clarke comes in as questionable which was partially why I liked Adams so much last night if he’s forced to miss I would think Adams’s minutes become pretty solidified and we’d see more Santi Aldama off of the bench. From the Magic, Bol Bol and Jalen Suggs seem very questionable, so I’m going to operate under the assumption they’re out along with Moe Wagner who is serving his suspension. We should see guys like Gary Harris and Terrence Ross move into the starting lineup at cheap price tags and both looked great last night, I would have no issue going right back to them in this spot. Paolo Banchero finally had a bounce-back game last night, I can’t say I love the price tag due to his volatility, but he’ll be in play for tournaments. Markelle Fultz has kept it rolling over his last handful of games and has been extremely consistent, the price has elevated, but he’ll be a solid option in all formats yet again. Wendell Carter Jr. had his minute’s restriction lifted last night and got up to 30 while playing pretty well, he’s too cheap if that minute’s restriction is truly gone and will be a guy I get a ton of in this spot. Lastly, the price tag on Cole Anthony is really interesting and would be a guy I have an interest in all formats.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, Wendell Carter Jr.
4-star play: Jaren Jackson, Steven Adams, Paolo Banchero, Terrence Ross, Gary Harris, Markelle Fultz
Deeper Value: Santi Aldama
GPP Sleeper: Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks, Cole Anthony
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.5
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum has been held under 50 DraftKings points in three straight and gets a fine matchup here. The thing I hate about the Mavericks is how slow they play, they rank 29th in the league in pace which makes it hard to really make a game shootout. That said, Tatum has been matchup-proof all season long. I’ll never have an issue with Jaylen Brown either, he’s a bit more scoring-dependent than I love in this price range, but he continues to get it done. Marcus Smart hasn’t been great over his last handful of games and the price tag isn’t budging, he’s more of a secondary option for me in this one. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White have been solid as well, and make for good secondary options as well on a shorter slate. I’m at the point where I’m just done with Al Horford, I had a bunch of interest in him when Williams was ruled out last time out, but he just doesn’t care about regular-season basketball. Yes, the minutes will be there but we’ve rarely seen great production from him. Speaking of Robert Williams, he should return here after being ruled out for whatever reason last time out. You know the drill by now, he’s going to play around 20-25 minutes and dominate while he’s out there, he makes plenty of sense as a value option. From the Mavericks, Luka Doncic has at least 64 FanDuel points in four straight games and will be right up there with Tatum and Jokic as the top spend-up option on the slate. The matchup isn’t great, but it doesn’t really matter for guys like him. Christian Wood has at least 40 DraftKings points in five straight games and has locked down some consistent minutes. The Celtics are not a good rebounding team, so I think he makes sense here as well. Spencer Dinwiddie is probably more of a secondary GPP option, I just don’t like guys who need to fight for usage with these ball-dominant players like Luka. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been much better as of late and makes sense in all formats as well. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle right now.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: Robert Williams
GPP Sleeper: Derrick White, Al Horford, Spencer Dinwiddie
Utah Jazz @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -6.5
Starting with the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk has been fairly volatile as of late but the minutes should be there in a nice matchup, I would have no issue going right back to the well with him in this one. We kind of know the story on Lauri Markkanen by now, his price tag is annoying, but he still has a ceiling that we can’t ignore as we saw last time out, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games, I love the matchup with a fast-paced team, however. Jordan Clarkson was pretty chalky last time the Jazz were on the slate but that was a short slate similar to this one, I would expect he’s a popular option in a great matchup yet again here. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Mike Conley are both fine secondary options to round out this team and should benefit/see a few extra minutes with Collin Sexton out. Finally, Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler should split the center minutes, I wouldn’t pair them together, but one of them will likely have a good game. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. had a down game last night but has been pretty consistent as of late. The matchup is nice, but the price tag is right where it should be. Alperen Sengun has at least 31 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and looks like a good option again in this one. Jabari Smith Jr. has been solid as of late but we know his volatility throughout the season, he’s a nice tournament option at this price tag at the very least. Jalen Green has played all the minutes he can handle as of late and is in a similar boat as Porter Jr. but at a much nicer price tag. Tari Eason just hasn’t been a guy I’ve loved getting to, he’s a good per-minute producer but for whatever reason, the Rockets won’t give him more than 23-25 minutes on the high-end.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Walker Kessler
Los Angeles Clippers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 228.5
Vegas Spread: Den -5.0
Starting with the Clippers, we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates in this one as Paul George comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go for the sake of this article, but it’s big news we’ll need on this slate. He’s been in good form as of late with a 32.0% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks. Kawhi Leonard has also been in good form but his price tag is starting to reflect that. The minutes will be there and would get a boost if George is forced to miss, he’s a nice option in all formats. The price tag on Ivica Zubac is great, he’s playing good minutes but has been volatile. They’ll need his size down low against Jokic in this one and will look like a great option if he can stay out of foul trouble. Then guys like Normal Powell, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, and John Wall are all secondary GPP options who would see a boost if George is forced to miss. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will be up there with Doncic and Tatum as the top spend-up option on the slate. He’s averaging 62.9 DraftKings points per game over his last six games and is going to be an awesome option in all formats. Jamal Murray has been held down over his last couple of games but has been seeing all the minutes he can handle as of late and will look good here as well. Aaron Gordon dropped a 50-burger against the Clippers this season and looks like a nice mid-range option while Michael Porter Jr. is more of a tournament guy due to his volatility. Then guys like Bruce Brown and Bones Hyland are fine tournament options to round out the slate.
5-star play: Paul George, Ivica Zubac, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Reggie Jackson, John Wall, Bruce Brown, Bones Hyland, Michael Porter Jr.
NBA Lock of the Day: Wendell Carter Jr. (DK – $6.4k; FD – $5.9k)
The Magic announced that Carter Jr. was no longer on a minutes restriction last night and saw 30 minutes against the Thunder. If 30 minutes is going to be his floor moving forward, he’s far too cheap. He’s averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute on the season and isn’t priced for that sort of production or role since coming back from injury. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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