Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/4:
Jan 2, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell (45) celebrates after scoring 71 points to set the franchise record as the Cavaliers beat the Chicago Bulls at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Memphis Grizzlies @ Charlotte Hornets
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Mem -7.0
We’ll kick off this slate with the Grizzlies, Desmond Bane has been floating around the 30-minute mark but hasn’t quite gotten over it which makes it hard for me to prioritize him… but he’s been in solid form over his last few games, I just don’t know we can get to him on a big slate like we have tonight. Ja Morant had a nice bounce-back game last time out and gets an elite matchup against a bad defense here, he’s going to look like a top option on this slate. Jaren Jackson has been good as of late and the Hornets are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing big men in the league. Dillon Brooks would be more of a secondary GPP option, especially with Bane back in the rotation. I do like Steven Adams here, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in three straight games and should dominate the paint in this one. His minutes should be pretty solidified here as well with Brandon Clarke out for this one. I would expect to see more of Santi Aldama who could make for an interesting dart throw in GPPs. From the Hornets, LaMelo Ball continues to have a better price tag on FanDuel but is still firmly on play on DraftKings as well. He has averaged 51.5 DraftKings points per game over his last six games and the matchup is nice as well here. Gordon Hayward and Kelly Oubre are both expected to miss this game which should set Jalen McDaniels up for more minutes and opportunity, I would expect that he joins the starting lineup again after a nice game last time out. I still think Terry Rozier is slightly overpriced with Ball back, but I don’t mind him as a secondary option in a great matchup here. Then guys like Mason Plumlee and PJ Washington are nice options who have been in good form as well. Washington has a 24.5% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute with Oubre and Hayward off of the court this season.
5-star play: Ja Morant, Steven Adams, LaMelo Ball
4-star play: Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson, Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee, PJ Washington
Deeper Value: Santi Aldama
GPP Sleeper: Desmond Bane, Santi Aldama, Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels, Mason Plumlee
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Phoenix Suns @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Suns, they’ll continue to be without Devin Booker which means we should see Landry Shamet back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Booker off of the court this season:
- Chris Paul – 22.5% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 19.9% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Landry Shamet – 22.0% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 26.2% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Torrey Craig – 13.6% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
I hate the matchup against a good Cavs defense, but guys like Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, and Deandre Ayton all make sense at their respective price tags. We likely see a few fewer minutes for guys like Shamet and Damion Lee with Cameron Payne back in the rotation and healthy as well which will keep these ancillary pieces as GPP-only plays in a tough matchup. From the Cavs, holy Donovan Mitchell… he had the best game of his career last time out against the Bulls. I wouldn’t expect he drops 71 real-life points again, but he’s going to look great with Darius Garland likely to miss this one again. He has a 35.2% usage rate and 1.38 fantasy points per minute with Garland off of the court this season. Kevin Love ended up starting for Evan Mobley who was ruled out last time out as well. I would expect more of the same here but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates regarding him as he comes in as questionable. Caris LeVert continues to play all the minutes he can handle and should start again in this one which makes him look like a nice option in all formats. Then we can round this team out with Jarrett Allen who will look like a solid secondary option in all formats.
5-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Kevin Love (if starting), Caris LeVert
4-star play: Chris Paul, Mikal Bridges, Deandre Ayton, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Landry Shamet, Torrey Craig, Kevin Love (if not starting), Evan Mobley
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander missed their game last night with a non-Covid illness which seems to be floating around the league. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to the lock, but I would expect he comes in as questionable in this one. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here and makes plenty of sense at a nice price tag on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Josh Giddey had a big night filling in for him last night and has been incredibly consistent as of late. He’d be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Lu Dort kept it rolling last night as well and will make sense yet again here, although expect some volatility with him. They’ll be without Aleksej Pokusevski for potentially the rest of the season and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl doesn’t have a timetable to return. We saw Kenrich Williams get the start at center last night and was fine, but no other big men were all that great, so it’s still a crap shoot. Predicting what to do with this frontcourt is nearly impossible. I will say, Jalen Williams has been pretty solid as of late as well and would make sense as a secondary option. From the Magic, they’ll be without Bol Bol, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, and Moe Wagner largely due to suspension. We should see guys like Gary Harris and Terrence Ross move into the starting lineup at cheap price tags. That said, I’m not sure how much we really need to prioritize them. Paolo Banchero hasn’t been in great form either and has been extremely volatile. The matchup is good which will keep him in play for tournaments, however. Markelle Fultz has at least 31 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and makes sense in all formats. I’m a little hesitant to get to Wendell Carter Jr. as his minutes are getting ramped up, he saw 24 minutes last time out. Lastly, the price tag on Cole Anthony is really interesting and would be a guy I have an interest in all formats.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Paolo Banchero, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony
Deeper Value: Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, Gary Harris, Terrence Ross
GPP Sleeper: Kenrich Williams, Jaylin Williams, Lu Dort, Paolo Banchero, Gary Harris, Terrence Ross, Wendell Carter Jr.
Indiana Pacers @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Phi -7.5
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton had a tough game last time out against the Raptors but has been extremely consistent all season long. A matchup with the Sixers doesn’t scare me and would be a guy I like getting right back to in this one. The matchup is tough for Myles Turner against Embiid down low but has a nice ceiling with at least 49 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. Buddy Hield has been much better over his last few games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one as well. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, and Aaron Nesmith would be GPP guys for me on a big 12-game slate like we have on tap tonight. From the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey will continue to come off of the bench for the near future as they try to get him re-acclimated to the rotation. He did get up to 27 minutes last time out which is a good sign, but I don’t think I can make him any sort of priority on this slate at this price tag. De’Anthony Melton will remain in the starting lineup which I think is more so due to the defense he plays more than Maxey needing to shake the rust off. I don’t love the price tag on him and probably isn’t a guy we need to get to on this slate either. Joel Embiid kept it rolling last time out and is now averaging 61.2 DraftKings points per game over his last six games. James Harden bounced back a bit last time out and gets an elite matchup here, he’s a nice matchup in all formats as well. Then Tobias Harris isn’t really a guy I want here… the price tag is too high considering his production.
5-star play: Tyrese Haliburton, Joel Embiid
4-star play: Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, James Harden
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Tyrese Maxey, De’Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris
San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -9.5
Starting with the Spurs, Devin Vassell comes in as questionable after missing their last few games. If he’s forced to miss we would likely see Romeo Langford back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Vassell off of the court this season:
- Keldon Johnson – 31.6% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Tre Jones – 20.9% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Jeremy Sochan – 17.3% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Jakob Poeltl – 19.4% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Romeo Langford – 16.7% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
Langford hasn’t been good over his last two games since having a big game against the Mavericks. I was big on Jakob Poeltl last time out due to his minutes trending in the right direction… but that didn’t end up so well. He played just 20 minutes due to getting absolutely shellacked against the Nets… I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in a nice matchup here at a nice price tag. From the Knicks, they’ll continue to be without RJ Barrett which should mean Immanuel Quickley will remain in the starting lineup. He’s been awesome with at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and is playing all the minutes he can handle. Julius Randle is averaging 62.2 DraftKings points per game over his last six games and gets an elite matchup again in this one and is a guy I like going right back to. Jalen Brunson is another guy I like going back to as well, he has a 30.6% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute with Barrett off of the court this season. Lastly, Mitchell Robinson will make sense as a secondary tournament option.
5-star play: Julius Randle, Immanuel Quickley, Jalen Brunson
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl, Devin Vassell (if starting)
Deeper Value: Romeo Langford
GPP Sleeper: Jeremy Sochan, Romeo Langford, Mitchell Robinson, Quentin Grimes
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Bucks, they’ll continue to be without Khris Middleton in this one, so we’ll need to see who they move into the starting lineup. Last night we saw Jrue Holiday come off of the bench as he works his way back from illness, but would expect he’s back in the starting rotation here. Below is how this team operates with Middleton off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 38.8% usage rate; 1.70 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 25.6% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 18.8% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 21.8% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Pat Connaughton – 16.1% usage rate; 0.71 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 15.3% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
Giannis has been incredible form, he has at least 78 FanDuel points in three straight games and is an elite spend-up option yet again in this one. Assuming Holiday is back and not limited, I don’t hate going back to him again here, but the matchup stinks. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam is going to continue to play all the minutes he can handle and makes sense in all formats, although its a tough matchup against a big Bucks team. Fred VanVleet always kills the Bucks and is averaging 43.5 DraftKings points per game against them in six games since 2021. Scottie Barnes has been in incredible form with at least 41 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is too cheap here for the minutes he’s playing. OG Anunoby has been very consistent as well, while Gary Trent Jr. would be more of a tournament option to round out the team.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Brook Lopez, Jrue Holiday, Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunby
Deeper Value: Grayson Allen
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Jrue Holiday, Gary Trent Jr.
Brooklyn Nets @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Bkn -5.0
Starting with the Nets, Kevin Durant has been great as of late and gets an elite matchup against this Bulls’ defense. He has a 30.3% usage rate and 1.49 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and makes sense as a spend-up option on this slate. The same can be said for Kyrie Irving, he’s been much less volatile as of late and gets an equally as great matchup. Ben Simmons and Nicolas Claxton are in a similar price range and get an elite matchup against the Bulls’ frontcourt. Then guys like Royce O’Neale and TJ Warren will be fine secondary GPP options to round out this team. From the Bulls, DeMar DeRozan bounced back in a big way last time out in a tough matchup with the Cavaliers. That game did go to overtime which helped, but I have no issue going right back to him again here. Then Nikola Vucevic and Zach LaVine have looked much better over their last few games. Outside of these main three guys, it’s tough for me to prioritize a whole lot here, guys like Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmo, and Coby White are fine options, but I would hope we get better value open up on this slate. I will say, they’ve been giving minutes to Andre Drummond with Vucevic on the court with him which is solidifying his minutes, but again, I have a hard time getting that cute on a massive slate.
5-star play: Kevin Durant, Kyrie Irving, DeMar DeRozan
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Nicolas Claxton, Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine
Deeper Value: Andre Drummond, Seth Curry
GPP Sleeper: Royce O’Neale, TJ Warren, Seth Curry, Patrick Williams, Andre Drummond
Houston Rockets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Nop -7.0
Starting with the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. has seen his production really pick up as of late as he’s averaging 43 DraftKings points per game over his last six games. I like the implied total in this one as well. Alperen Sengun bounced back last time out and has a nice price tag in this one. Jabari Smith Jr. has been solid as of late but we know his volatility throughout the season, he’s a nice tournament option at this price tag at the very least. Jalen Green has played all the minutes he can handle as of late and is in a similar boat as Porter Jr. but at a much nicer price tag. Tari Eason just hasn’t been a guy I’ve loved getting to, he’s a good per-minute producer but for whatever reason, the Rockets won’t give him more than 23-25 minutes on the high-end. From the Pelicans, they’re going to be without Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson as he was diagnosed with a hamstring injury. Below is how the team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- CJ McCollum – 31.5% usage rate; 1.24 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 25.4% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 15.1% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Herb Jones – 16.3% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
- Naji Marshall – 19.7% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
I would expect to see Naji Marshall slides into the starting lineup with Zion off of the court. The big boost goes to CJ McCollum who we’ve seen dominate with Ingram and Zion off of the court this season, he’s going to look like a nice option in an elite matchup.
5-star play: CJ McCollum
4-star play: Kevin Porter Jr., Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith, Jalen Green, Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, Trey Murphy
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jabari Smith, Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Naji Marshall
Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Min -1.0
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard kept it rolling last time out and now has at least 51 FanDuel points in three of his last four games, he’s going to look like a strong option in all formats. Jerami Grant has been in good form as of late as well and would be a guy I don’t mind going back to, but the price tag has certainly come back up. Anfernee Simons had a big game last time out but probably isn’t a guy I need to prioritize as he shares usage with Dame in the backcourt. Jusuf Nurkic left the game early last time out but sounds like he’s good to go here and has a really nice price tag. Then I have no issue with Josh Hart as well, he should continue to play all the minutes he can handle. From the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while we don’t have an injury report quite yet on the rest of the team. We saw Rudy Gobert return last time out to play just 27 minutes, I can’t say I love him but the price tag has come down to an interesting spot. Anthony Edwards has been great as of late and has a 31.2% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and gets a nice matchup against the Blazers. D’Angelo Russell is playing massive minutes right now and has been pretty consistent over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in this spot.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Jerami Grant, Jusuf Nurkic, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid
Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: GSW -6.5
Starting with the Pistons, they should get Killian Hayes back in this one after serving his three-game suspension and will look like a nice option as he continues to fill in for Cade Cunningham and has a really nice price tag in a really nice matchup here. The price tag on Bojan Bogdanovic feels like it’s right where it needs to be but is a fine GPP guy due to his ability to get hot from three-point range. Jaden Ivey came down to Earth last time out but has been much better as of late and is a solid GPP option. Jalen Duren should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and has performed well since entering the starting rotation. Then Marvin Bagley will miss the next few weeks which will solidify the minutes for a guy like Isaiah Stewart. From the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins as they have been for the last handful of games. Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney both had massive games last time out… Klay’s price feels tough to get to, but Looney is still priced pretty cheap considering he has no true backup with Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman out as well. Jordan Poole has at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and makes sense in all formats. Then guys like Draymond Green and Donte DiVincenzo both make sense as secondary options as well and have been in good form.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, Donte DiVincenzo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, Jaden Ivey
Detroit Pistons @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: GSW -6.5
Starting with the Pistons, they should get Killian Hayes back in this one after serving his three-game suspension and will look like a nice option as he continues to fill in for Cade Cunningham and has a really nice price tag in a really nice matchup here. The price tag on Bojan Bogdanovic feels like it’s right where it needs to be but is a fine GPP guy due to his ability to get hot from three-point range. Jaden Ivey came down to Earth last time out but has been much better as of late and is a solid GPP option. Jalen Duren should continue to see all the minutes he can handle and has performed well since entering the starting rotation. Then Marvin Bagley will miss the next few weeks which will solidify the minutes for a guy like Isaiah Stewart. From the Warriors, they’ll continue to be without Steph Curry and Andrew Wiggins as they have been for the last handful of games. Klay Thompson and Kevon Looney both had massive games last time out… Klay’s price feels tough to get to, but Looney is still priced pretty cheap considering he has no true backup with Jonathan Kuminga and James Wiseman out as well. Jordan Poole has at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and makes sense in all formats. Then guys like Draymond Green and Donte DiVincenzo both make sense as secondary options as well and have been in good form.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Killian Hayes, Bojan Bogdanovic, Klay Thompson, Kevon Looney, Jordan Poole, Draymond Green, Donte DiVincenzo
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen Duren, Isaiah Stewart, Jaden Ivey
Miami Heat @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Mia -4.0
Starting with the Heat, Bam Adebayo dropped a 50-burger for the second straight game last time out against the Clippers. He’s been playing massive minutes and this Lakers’ frontcourt defense isn’t very good right now. Jimmy Butler wasn’t quite as good but performed well in this matchup earlier this season. I hate the price tag on Tyler Herro, but it’s hard to argue with the production he’s putting up as of late. He’ll be more of a tournament option, just because I can’t get myself to go there in cash games. Kyle Lowry has not been good as he’s been held under 20 DraftKings points in three straight games and would be more of a secondary piece for me. Then we get to filler pieces in Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, and Caleb Martin… none of these guys are priorities, however. From the Lakers, they’ll be without Anthony Davis for the near future, which means we’ll see Thomas Bryant start in his place going forward. He has at least 42 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and looks like a solid option again here despite the matchup. Below is how this team operates with Davis off of the court this season:
- LeBron James – 35.0% usage rate; 1.56 fpm
- Russell Westbrook – 29.5% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Thomas Bryant – 18.6% usage rate; 1.11 fpm
- Dennis Schroder – 20.3% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Lakers, but it’s mostly LeBron, Westbrook, and Bryant for me. I do think we need to monitor the Breaking News Feed for LeBron as he comes in as questionable, but with it being a revenge game, I have to think he’s going to give it a go here. I think Schroder and Lonnie Walker are viable as well at their current price tags they’ve both produced nicely with Davis out so far.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo, LeBron James
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Russell Westbrook, Thomas Bryant
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Tyler Herro, Dennis Schorder, Lonnie Walker
Atlanta Hawks @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 244.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -1.0
Starting with the Hawks, they’ll continue to be without Clint Capela which means we should see Onyeka Okongwu back in the starting lineup yet again. He’s continued to look good and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. Trae Young had a huge game last time out and now gets an elite matchup against a fast-paced Kings team which is evident by the 244 implied total. Dejounte Murray is playing all the minutes he can handle and is a solid GPP option in this one. John Collins is another guy who has been in great form with Capela out and this one sets up perfectly for him as well. Then guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter are fine secondary options to round out this team. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis hasn’t had any issues with his injured hand since his diagnosis and is averaging 52.6 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. This is a nice matchup and would be a spot where I have no problem going right back to him. De’Aaron Fox has been a bit more volatile than I’d like to see, but the upside is obviously there in a game that features such a high implied total. Then the trio of Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Malik Monk are all floating in that $5k range and are fine secondary tournament options in a good matchup. Lastly, Keegan Murray’s minutes are trending back in the right direction and makes sense as a value option on this slate.
5-star play: Trae Young, Onyeka Okongwu, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, John Collins, De’Aaron Fox
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
NBA Lock of the Day: Steven Adams (DK – $5.4k; FD – $6.8k)
Now, the price tag is much better on DraftKings, but I still think he’s firmly in play on FanDuel as well. He has at least 42 DraftKings/39 FanDuel points in three straight games and gets an elite matchup in this one. The Hornets are giving up the most fantasy points per game to opposing big men in the league this season. The Grizzlies will also be without Brandon Clarke which should help secure Adams’ minutes a good amount as well. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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