Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/3:
Dec 25, 2022; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Milwaukee Bucks point guard Jrue Holiday (21) reacts to a call on the court during the second half against the Boston Celtics at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Boston Celtics @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 235.5
Vegas Spread: Bos -9.0
We’ll kick off this short slate with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum has been held under 50 DraftKings points in two straight but gets an elite bounce-back spot here against a bad Thunder team. He scored 54.5 DraftKings points against them earlier this season on just 1-9 three-point shooting, he’s going to look like a nice spend-up option again. I’ll never have an issue with Jaylen Brown either, he’s a bit more scoring dependent than I love in this price range, but he continues to get it done. Marcus Smart had a down game last time out but we know he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle and will make sense as a secondary option. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White have been solid as well, but are more secondary options than anything for me on this slate. The same can be said for Al Horford who is just meh for me at this point… he hasn’t done anything all that impressive this season. He probably sees a slight boost if Williams is forced to miss. Speaking of Robert Williams, he comes in as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed regarding his status, but I’ll operate under the assumption he’s good to go here. I had a good amount of interest in him last time out and that likely won’t change here on a short slate. The minutes haven’t exactly been there, but it doesn’t mean they can’t be and he’s been great on a per-minute basis this season. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been a model of consistency this season but has been held down over his last two games. This isn’t a great matchup with a good defensive team, but he did score 59 DraftKings points in this spot earlier on in the season. Josh Giddey has been extremely consistent as of late and is probably a couple of hundred dollars too cheap, he’s going to look like a nice option as well. Lu Dort kept it rolling last time out and will make sense yet again here, although expect some volatility with him. They’ll be without Aleksej Pokusevski for potentially the rest of the season and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl doesn’t have a timetable to return. We’ve seen Jaylin Williams join the starting lineup and it hasn’t exactly gone great. Predicting what to do with this frontcourt is nearly impossible, but on a short slate guys like Williams, Mike Muscala, and even Darius Bazley are in play at their respective salaries.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Jaylin Williams, Darius Bazley, Mike Muscala
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Al Horford, Lu Dort, Jaylin Williams, Darius Bazley, Mike Muscala
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 227.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -7.5
We saw this matchup last time these two teams took the court so we have a bit of a sample size here. We’ll start with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis has a huge price tag but it’s warranted at this point especially if Beal is forced to sit. He didn’t have a great game last time out but we know the upside is there in a pace-up spot. Kyle Kuzma is a fine option as well, this is a pace-up spot for the Wizards but I would prefer Beal is out in order to make him a priority. Speaking of Bradley Beal, he comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s able to go and would be more of a secondary GPP option for me in this spot. Deni Avdija has at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last five and would be another guy I like getting to if Beal were to miss. Then Monte Morris is a solid secondary option if you happened to land on him as a last piece in. From the Bucks, they should get Jrue Holiday back in this one while Khris Middleton will miss again. I don’t expect Holiday to be on any sort of minutes restriction, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for confirmation before lock. This probably moves Jevon Carter back to the bench, but they could opt to move Pat Connaughton as well due to production. Below is how this team operates with Khris Middleton off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 38.8% usage rate; 1.70 fpm
- Jrue Holiday – 25.6% usage rate; 1.23 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 18.8% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 21.8% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Pat Connaughton – 16.1% usage rate; 0.71 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 15.3% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the team dependent on a starting lineup, but it’s a great matchup and one they can take advantage of. Giannis has at least 78 FanDuel points in back-to-back games before missing their last game but would be a guy I have no issue going back to even with Holiday back in there.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal, Rui Hachimura, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen, Jrue Holiday
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Monte Morris, Rui Hachimura, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles
Sacramento Kings @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 242.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -2.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis hasn’t had any issues with his injured hand since his diagnosis and is averaging 53 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. This is a nice matchup and would be a spot where I have no problem going right back to him. De’Aaron Fox has been a bit more volatile than I’d like to see, but the upside is obviously there in a game that features a 242.5 implied total and should stay close. Then the trio of Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Malik Monk are all floating in that $5k range and are fine secondary tournament options in a good matchup. Keep an eye on Huerter and Monk as they come in as questionable, however. Lastly, Keegan Murray’s minutes are trending back in the right direction and makes sense as a value option on this slate. From the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk had a nice bounce-back game against the Heat of all teams last time out. He struggled against the Kings two games ago but ran into foul trouble, so I’ll have no issue going right back to him on this slate. We kind of know the story on Lauri Markkanen by now, his price tag is annoying, but he still has a ceiling that we can’t ignore as we saw last time out, he now has at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last four games, I love the matchup with a fast-paced team, however. Jordan Clarkson will look good here as well, we know the minutes will be there and he’s another guy I like targeting in these fast-paced matchups. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Mike Conley are both fine secondary options to round out this team and should benefit/see a few extra minutes with Collin Sexton out.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Kelly Olynyk, Jordan Clarkson
Deeper Value: Keegan Murray
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt
NBA Lock of the Day: -> Click Here <-
With such a short slate, I would expect to have a more condensed player pool, so I’m going to keep the lock of the day behind the paywall for our VIP Members, so come get started, promo code MADNESS gets you 10% off! Check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
