Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/28:
Jan 26, 2023; Brooklyn, New York, USA; Detroit Pistons forward Saddiq Bey (41) drives to the basket against Brooklyn Nets forward Yuta Watanabe (18) during the third quarter at Barclays Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Before I get started, I need to shoutout VIP Member “Kanger” on taking home over $43k on Wednesday night including a 2nd place finish in the NBA $350k fadeaway… on a single bullet! Congrats man!
Chicago Bulls @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -2.5
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are all in solid form as of late… last time out it was Vucevic’s turn for a down game. It came against a great matchup as well, so trying to predict which of these guys will have a nice night has gotten pretty tough. I don’t know that I have a true preference between the three of them, but the matchup is nice against this Orlando team for all three of them. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso who have been playing well, but I would hope we get better value to open up on a good-sized slate. Caruso was pretty chalky last time out, but I would imagine we get better value on tonight’s slate. From the Magic, Franz Wagner has been fine as of late but he’s never a guy I really prioritize, but he’ll look like a solid secondary option here in a nice matchup. Paolo Banchero came down to Earth last time out against the Heat but gets a nice bounce-back spot here, I have no issue going right back to the well with him. Wendell Carter Jr. gets a revenge game against the team that drafted him and dropped 36.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. Markelle Fultz is probably more of a secondary option than anything, but again, the price is fine. Then a guy like Cole Anthony is a tournament-only guy, as I said, the more bodies this team gets back, the less I like them.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, DeMar DeRozan, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Cole Anthony, Markelle Fultz
Houston Rockets @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 236.5
Vegas Spread: Det -4.0
Starting with the Rockets, they’ve been without Kevin Porter Jr. over their last few and now won’t have Jalen Green as well. We saw Josh Christopher start for Eric Gordon last time out but I would expect Gordon back and due to positioning, Daishen Nix could join the starting lineup for Green. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for that starting lineup as we get closer to lock. Below is how this team operates with Green and Porter Jr. off of the court this season:
- Daishen Nix – 13.5% usage rate; 0.65 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 27.2% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- KJ Martin – 18.7% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Jabari Smith Jr. – 25.0% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 23.9% usage rate; 1.40 fpm
I don’t know that I would be all that intrigued with Nix, but he’s dirt cheap and the minutes will be there if he’s starting. Alperen Sengun is pretty easily the top option on the team and has at least 54 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. Then Jabari Smith and KJ Martin are pretty similar options at their price tags, both look like solid options and the shots should be there with Porter Jr. and Green out. From the Pistons, we saw Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey jump into the starting lineup and looked great at low ownership as the news came about 45 seconds before lock. I would imagine they run out the same starting five tonight and boy did Jaden Ivey look good without Killian Hayes next to him. I would have no issue going right back to him at this price tag while I wouldn’t love Hayes exposure off of the bench… although he still played well in that game, but saw just 25 minutes. Bojan Bogdanovic is more of a GPP guy due to the scoring dependency with him, but a solid tournament option nonetheless. Jalen Duren kept it rolling with Isaiah Stewart back last time out and would be a guy I like going right back to, DraftKings has been really slow to adjust his price tag. He’s $6.5k on FanDuel which feels much more accurate. Then Burks will look like a solid low-end option if he starts again as well.
5-star play: Alperen Sengun, Jalen Duren (DraftKings)
4-star play: Eric Gordon, Jabari Smith, KJ Martin, Jaden Ivey, Alec Burks, Saddiq Bey, Bojan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: Daishen Nix, Josh Christopher (whoever starts)
GPP Sleeper: Daishen Nix, Josh Christopher, Killian Hayes, Jalen Duren (FanDuel), Isaiah Stewart, Bojan Bogdanovic
Los Angeles Clippers @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: PK
Starting with the Clippers, the price tag on Kawhi Leonard has come below $10k, but I still feel like he’s a bit overpriced. That said, he’s been in good form and gets an elite matchup with this Hawks team tonight, he’ll be more of a tournament option for me than anything and probably not a guy I get a whole lot of. Paul George was a core play for me last time out and he dominated that Spurs team. The price tag hasn’t really moved and he has multi-position eligibility, he’s a great option in all formats. Ivica Zubac will probably be a tournament-only guy going forward, he’s come out in interviews and essentially say he’s exhausted, so I don’t know that they’re going to continue to push his minutes… but he does still have at least 34 minutes in two of his last four, so take it for what it’s worth. All I know is his production and minutes have been volatile, so let’s leave him for GPPs. Norman Powell is probably more of a GPP option with both George and Kawhi back in there, but the minutes should be there. The rest of this team is pretty meh on a big slate. From the Hawks, Trae Young is going to look solid here but we haven’t really seen a ceiling game from him in a while, he’s a solid secondary option. Dejounte Murray continues to play all the minutes he can handle and is a solid tournament option as well. John Collins is another GPP option but has been in good enough form with at least 34 DraftKings points in three of his last five, he’s struggled with foul trouble a bit as of late. Clint Capela kept it rolling last time out and is going to look good again here, minutes are the most significant thing for his production but he has at least 28 minutes in back-to-back games. Then guys like De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bogdanovic will be solid secondary pieces as well, both guys have been in solid form as of late.
5-star play: Paul George
4-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Clint Capela, De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Washington Wizards @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -4.0
Starting with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis will be doubtful tonight, so they’ll be without him yet again. I would expect to see Deni Avdija right back into the starting lineup in this one. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 18.9% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 29.9% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 16.4% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Kyle Kuzma – 31.2% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 15.7% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
All of these guys look like great options in an awesome matchup with the Pelicans. Kristaps being out opens up a ton of usage and opportunity for the rest of this lineup. Kyle Kuzma bounced back nicely last time out and now has at least 48 FanDuel points in three of his last four games. I’m less thrilled about Bradley Beal who hasn’t looked all that great since returning from injury. That said, the minutes are trending up and the rates are obviously there with Kristaps out. For whatever reason DraftKings loves to underprice Avdija, he has at least 33 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is averaging 34 DraftKings/33 FanDuel points per game in six games with Kristaps out this season. Then Daniel Gafford is a solid option in all formats as well, his minutes came up last time out. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram returned last time out to play 26 minutes which is a pretty good number for missing his last two months. He’s probably not a guy I want to go back to right away, but it wouldn’t shock me if he got to 30 minutes here. CJ McCollum will be impacted but probably not right away as Ingram is eased back in. That said, he dropped a 50-burger last time out against the Wolves and will look like a fine secondary option. Jonas Valanciunas is a tournament guy as well, we know the upside is there but can be volatile at times. Then Trey Murphy has been in solid form as of late and is playing all the minutes he can handle, he’s in that Naji Marshall group of players that looks solid to round out rosters with.
5-star play: Deni Avdija (DraftKings), Kyle Kuzma
4-star play: Monte Morris, Bradley Beal, Daniel Gafford, Deni Avdija (FanDuel), CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Bradley Beal, Jonas Valanciunas, Brandon Ingram, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall
Sacramento Kings @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -1.5
Starting with the Kings, Domantas Sabonis had a rough game last time out relative to his price tag but gets a solid matchup in this one. Most people get scared off of a matchup with Gobert down low, but he hasn’t been all that great for team defense. Is he racking up blocks and steals? Sure… but so does Christian Wood who is atrocious on defense. This spot doesn’t scare me, Sabonis looks like a solid option. De’Aaron Fox is probably more of a tournament option due to his volatility, but we know the upside is there. Kevin Huerter has at least 35 FanDuel points in two of his last three games and makes sense in all formats at his price tag. Harrison Barnes looks like a nice mid-range option in all formats right there with him. Then guys like Keegan Murray and Malik Monk are fine GPP flyers as well, Murray continues to be in great form. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns will remain out while Rudy Gobert should be good to go again. He was a guy I got a bunch of last night on DraftKings, as they mispriced a lot of centers. He’s too cheap yet again here and is going to look like a nice option in all formats. Anthony Edwards has at least 52 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and has been good with Towns off of the court this season with a 30.8% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute. D’Angelo Russell has been sneaky great as of late and I like the matchup a good amount, he’ll make sense in all formats as well. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels are GPP options, but Anderson has been in great form… he’s just not a sexy option by any means.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, Rudy Gobert (DraftKings), Anthony Edwards
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray, Rudy Gobert (FanDuel), D’Angelo Russell, Kyle Anderson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels
Phoenix Suns @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -5.5
Starting with the Suns, Chris Paul kept it rolling last time out and has at least 49 DraftKings points in two of his last four. This is an elite matchup and he has a 22.4% usage rate and 1.16 fantasy points per minute with Devin Booker off of the court this season. Deandre Ayton returned last time out to play 30+ minutes, so he’ll be a full go moving forward and has been great when he’s played. I love the matchup against a Spurs team that isn’t running Poeltl the minutes he should be seeing. Mikal Bridges continues to play well and will play all the minutes he can handle and makes sense in all formats. Then guys like Damion Lee and Saben Lee are off of my radar with Paul and Cam Johnson back… speaking of Cam Johnson, he has at least 35 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and will look like a nice F option in this one. From the Spurs, Josh Richardson and Jeremy Sochan come in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re good to go here. Keldon Johnson is a fine option but feels like he’s priced right about where he should be, he’s not a guy that I’m going to get too crazy on in this one. Tre Jones hasn’t been great over his last handful of games, I can’t say I love him in this one either. The minutes on Jakob Poeltl are all over the place lately which makes it hard to prioritize him, but makes plenty of sense as a GPP option. We do need to touch on Zach Collins, he’s been popular over the last couple of slates and has been fine when it comes to his production. That said, the opportunity cost is massive with just center eligibility on DraftKings (he’s a better option on FanDuel where he has PF eligibility), but on a 9-game slate, you’re probably not winning anything substantial if he has a median outcome game.
5-star play: Chris Paul, Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones
Deeper Value: Zach Collins
GPP Sleeper: Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl, Zach Collins, Josh Richardson, Jeremy Sochan
Los Angeles Lakers @ Boston Celtics
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -8.5
Starting with the Lakers, Anthony Davis returned last time out and played 26 minutes and looked great in that time. I don’t think we can play him at this price tag until he gets his full minutes back, but it was good to see him produce nicely right off of that injury. Davis being back will hurt the rates for pretty much the rest of the team, so I’ll be underweight on guys like Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, and Russell Westbrook. I do still think we can get to LeBron James although his price tag is massive and his production did come down to Earth with Davis in there last time out. He’d probably be more of a tournament option in that price range. From the Celtics, Marcus Smart will continue to be out while Malcolm Brogdon returned last time out to play 34 minutes. Both Brogdon and Derrick White are going to look great with Smart out again. Jayson Tatum has at least 58 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and is a guy I love in this spot. The Lakers haven’t been good on defense, but do get a good bump up with Davis back… that said, he’s matchup-proof at this point. Jaylen Brown has been fine as of late and doesn’t see much of a boost with Smart out, he’d be more of a secondary option for me in this one. Robert Williams has back-to-back games with at least 31 minutes which is huge for his production, he averages 1.06 fantasy points per minute on the season, so minutes are king with him. Then Al Horford is just not a guy I’ve gotten to a whole lot this season, I don’t see the need to go there in this one either.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum
4-star play: LeBron James, Malcolm Brogdon, Jaylen Brown, Robert Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Anthony Davis, Dennis Schroder, Russell Westbrook, Derrick White, Al Horford
Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 224.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -7.5
Starting with the Mavericks, the big news here is they’ll be without Luka Doncic and Christian Wood again in this one. I would expect to see Josh Green in the starting lineup in place of Luka here. Below is how this team operates with Luka and Wood off of the court this season:
- Spencer Dinwiddie – 34.9% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
- Tim Hardaway Jr. – 26.7% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
- Josh Green – 14.0% usage rate; 0.82 fpm
- Dorian Finney-Smith – 15.4% usage rate; 0.79 fpm
- Dwight Powell – 15.3% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
Spencer Dinwiddie and Tim Hardaway Jr. are the clear winners here and will look like elite options with Luka out. Both guys have huge usage rates and are guys I’ll get a ton of in a great matchup with this Jazz defense. Dwight Powell has seen huge minutes as of late with Wood down, he’s a guy I’ll go right back to as a value option in a great matchup. Guys like Finney-Smith, Bullock, and Josh Green aren’t big usage guys and are more secondary options than anything, but if you fall on them I’d be good with it. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen came down to Earth last time out and had his price tag fall… he’s more of a secondary option than anything, but is a solid option nonetheless. Guys like Walker Kessler and Jarred Vanderbilt will look like solid options. That said, Kessler hasn’t been in the best form, but he’s #good, so no issue going right back to him in this one. Jordan Clarkson is a fine option as well but hasn’t been a guy I’ve gotten a ton of as of late in his price range. I do like Mike Conley who has at least 30 FanDuel points in five of his last six games.
5-star play: Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr.
4-star play: Josh Green, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Josh Green
GPP Sleeper: Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Dwight Powell, Josh Green, Jarred Vanderbilt
Toronto Raptors @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 232.5
Vegas Spread: Por -5.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet was a guy I liked a good amount last night and will look good again in a nice matchup here. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle which is not out of the ordinary. Pascal Siakam was a guy I liked as well but clearly struggled a bit. That said, we know the minutes will be there and the matchup is nice, so it’s a nice bounce-back spot at the very least for a guy who hasn’t been in that top-tier form we know he’s capable of. Scottie Barnes has been in great form as of late and is playing all of the minutes he can handle. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 20.1% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute. Then guys like Gary Trent and OG Anunoby are secondary guys, Trent Jr. has been in better form. Anunoby left the game early last night, so I would imagine he’s a true question mark coming into this one, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. We saw Precious Achiuwa benefit from Anunoby going out early last night and was great, he would look great if that’s the case again in this one. I will probably operate under the assumption that Anunoby is out after the injury and on the back end of a back-to-back on the west coast. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard has been on some kind of heater as of late, over the last two weeks he has a 33.8% usage rate and 1.72 fantasy points per minute. The Raptors are a pretty meh matchup, but I’ll go right back to the well with Dame in this one. Jusuf Nurkic has been extremely volatile as of late and comes into this one as questionable, he’ll be a tournament-only guy for me. Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons continue to float in that 30-40 fantasy point range which is fine at their price tags, but not guys I feel the need to prioritize. Finally, Josh Hart is in the same boat as Nurkic, he comes in as questionable and hasn’t been all that great, but if he plays the minutes should be there at the very least.
5-star play: Fred VanVleet, Precious Achiuwa (if Anunoby is out), Damian Lillard
4-star play: Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr., Pascal Siakam, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Chris Boucher, Precious Achiuwa, Jusuf Nuric, Josh Hart
NBA Lock of the Day: Precious Achiuwa (DK – $4.4k; FD – $5.6k)
I’m going to operate under the assumption that OG Anunoby misses tonight’s game. He left last night’s game early and on the back end of a back-to-back on the west coast, I don’t see a reason for them to force it here… especially as his name floats around trade rumors. Achiuwa started the second half in Anunoby’s place and now has played at least 36 minutes in three of his last four games. He’s about a 0.90 fantasy point-per-minute guy with Anunoby off of the court this season and would just be too cheap for the role he’d play tonight. I do like the price tag on DraftKings a bit more, but still playable on FanDuel if Anunoby were to miss. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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