Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/25:
May 16, 2021; San Francisco, California, USA; Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) shoots the basketball against Memphis Grizzlies guard Desmond Bane (22) and forward Brandon Clarke (15) during the first quarter at Chase Center. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
Indiana Pacers @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Pacers, Myles Turner has gotten his minutes back over the last couple of games and this one should stay close enough where I think we see the same thing. He’s going to look like a great option yet again here. The same case can be made for Buddy Hield who has looked great over his last two games with at least 39 DraftKings points in each. TJ McConnell has started over their last handful of games and should continue to do so here. He has not disappointed either, he has a 17.9% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Tyrese Haliburton off of the court this season and is a guy I like going right back to the well with here. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, and even Chris Duarte make sense as GPP options in a great matchup. If Nembhard ends up sitting again Mathurin and Duarte will look like great options at their respective price tags. From the Magic, Franz Wagner bounced back nicely last time out and has a fair enough price tag here. He’s never a guy I really prioritize, but he’ll look like a solid secondary option. Paolo Banchero hasn’t been great over his last few games and is a tournament-only guy for me here due to the volatility we’ve seen from him. I do like going back to Wendell Carter Jr., however, he had a nice game last time out and obviously gets a nice matchup in this one. Markelle Fultz is probably more of a secondary option than anything, but again, the price is fine. Then a guy like Cole Anthony is a tournament-only guy, as I said, the more bodies this team gets back, the less I like them. Even Jonathan Isaac returned for the first time in pretty much three years last game. He only played 10 minutes but he looked good. He’s not in play as a DFS option quite yet, but a guy to monitor at the very least.
5-star play: Myles Turner, TJ McConnell
4-star play: Buddy Hield, Bennedict Mathurin, Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr.
Deeper Value: Chris Duarte
GPP Sleeper: Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Chris Duarte, Markelle Fultz, Cole Anthony
Brooklyn Nets @ Philadelphia 76ers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Nets, they’ll continue to be without Kevin Durant who sounds like he’ll be out for the next few weeks, so expect to see Joe Harris back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Durant off of the court this season:
- Kyrie Irving – 34.9% usage rate; 1.39 fpm
- Joe Harris – 14.3% usage rate; 0.69 fpm
- Royce O’Neale – 14.5% usage rate; 0.75 fpm
- Ben Simmons – 14.2% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Nic Claxton – 19.5% usage rate; 1.20 fpm
Kyrie Irving has been in elite form with at least 58 FanDuel points in three straight and is a guy I’ll like going right back to here in a big Eastern Conference matchup. Nic Claxton is another guy that has been in great form but will have his hands full with Embiid down low, the same can be said for Ben Simmons, who hasn’t been in as good of form. That said, I’m sure he’ll have some extra juice as he heads back into Philly and will more than likely (not) be welcomed warmly. Guys like Curry, Warren, and Harris are all GPP guys for me. From the Sixers, Joel Embiid will come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. I like the matchup for Embiid quite a bit and is a great spend-up option on this slate. James Harden has kept it rolling with at least 52 DraftKings points in six of his last seven games and also gets a revenge game here. Then, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris would be more tournament options than anything assuming Embiid is good to go.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Joel Embiid, James Harden
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Nic Claxton, Royce O’Neale
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Joe Harris, Seth Curry, TJ Warren, Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris
Atlanta Hawks @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 238.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -1.0
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young has been solid as of late and just feels slightly underpriced in a great matchup. I love going right back to the well with him in this one. Clint Capela got his minutes back last time out, it helped that Onyeka Okongwu missed, but 36 minutes is a good indicator that he’s no longer limited. If Okongwu is forced to miss again, Capela would look like an elite center option. The price tag on Dejounte Murray is fine and will play all the minutes he can handle, on a big slate I’m not sure how much I’ll get to of him, but he’s in play nonetheless. Then guys like John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and De’Andre Hunter will make sense as GPP options at their relative price tags. Hunter also comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him and Okongwu. From the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has at least 51 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and is a guy I like a good amount in a great matchup with his Hawks backcourt. The price tag on Josh Giddey has come way up and is probably more of a secondary option but I do like the matchup similar to Gilgeous-Alexander. Jalen Williams has struggled over his last few games and it seems to be every time I’m on him, so I’ll consider him more of a tournament option. Lu Dort will continue to be a GPP option as well, the minutes will be there, but the production can be volatile. Outside of these guys, there isn’t a ton I love especially on a big slate. I guess you could make a case for Kenrich Williams, but that might be digging too deep tonight.
5-star play: Trae Young, Clint Capela (if no Okongwu), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Jalen Williams, Lu Dort, Kenrich Williams
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Minnesota Timberwolves @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 230.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -3.5
Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns will remain out while Rudy Gobert returned last time out, and would expect he plays again in this one even though he comes in as questionable. He played 36 minutes in his return, so he’s clearly not limited and will be a solid option. Anthony Edwards followed up his monster game against the Rockets with another nice game last time out and has been good with Towns off of the court this season with a 30.7% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute. We kind of know what we’re getting out of D’Angelo Russell at this point, he’s going to play big minutes and probably be pretty solid, but not someone I’ll feel the need to prioritize… although he does feel a bit too cheap. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels both take a pretty substantial hit with Gobert back in there and probably aren’t guys I need to get to here. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram is expected back in this one, but I would anticipate he’s pretty heavily limited as he’s been out for the past two months, so likely not playable until he gets his minutes back. CJ McCollum will be impacted but probably not right away as Ingram is eased back in. He’s struggled over his last couple of games and is probably more of a GPP option for me. Jonas Valanciunas is a tournament guy as well, we know the upside is there but he does get a tougher matchup with Gobert down low. Then Trey Murphy has been in solid form as of late and is playing all the minutes he can handle, he’s in that Naji Marshall group of players that looks solid to round out rosters with.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, Trey Murphy
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, Jonas Valanciunas
Denver Nuggets @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -8.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic returned last night and played 36 minutes, so I would expect he’s a full go moving forward. This Bucks defense is tough on opposing big men, but he’s going to be a great spend-up option on this slate. Jamal Murray ended up playing last time out even after being questionable all day, he had a great game and has at least 41 DraftKings points in five straight games. Aaron Gordon is probably more of a GPP option for me, but a guy I could be talked into for cash games at this price tag. I think I would just take the savings on Michael Porter Jr., who I would expect to see back here after missing their game last time out due to personal family issues. Then guys like Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown are fine GPP darts, but all of these guys would see a boost if Porter Jr. is out again. From the Bucks, they’ll be without Bobby Portis in this one but did get Khris Middleton back last time out. Middleton came off of the bench to play 15 minutes, so I would expect they ease him back in again here, I don’t see him as a viable option until those minutes come back up. A lot of this team was hindered by blowing the doors off of the Pistons last time out, Giannis Antetokounmpo only saw 27 minutes but he looked great early on. I would expect this game stays much closer, so Giannis will look like a great option in all formats. Jrue Holiday is suddenly overpriced as this team gets healthier, I’ll wait for his price tag to come down before I go back to the well on him. Brook Lopez will have his hands full with Jokic down low, but the minutes should be there, so he makes sense as a tournament option at the very least. I would expect to see more minutes for guys like Pat Connaughton and Joe Ingles with Portis out, I do think Ingles makes sense as a value option depending on what other value we get on this slate.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Michael Porter Jr., Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown, Jrue Holiday, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen
Washington Wizards @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Was -3.0
Starting with the Wizards, they’ll continue to be without Kristaps Porzingis as he sprained his ankle earlier in the week. I would expect we see Deni Avdija moves back into the starting lineup and will look like a great option at this price tag. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 18.9% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 29.8% usage rate; 1.21 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 16.2% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Kyle Kuzma – 31.4% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 15.9% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
All of these guys look like great options in an awesome matchup with the Rockets. Kristaps being out opens up a ton of usage and opportunity for the rest of this lineup. Kyle Kuzma was fine last night but this sets up a great spot for him to excel. I’m less thrilled about Bradley Beal who hasn’t looked all that great since returning from injury. That said, the minutes are trending up and the rates are obviously there with Kristaps out. Then guys like Avdija and Daniel Gafford will look good as well, Avdija was my lock of the day last night and will look great again here. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. will miss this game while Jabari Smith comes in questionable after missing their last game. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go in this one. Alperen Sengun has been in great form but the price tag has certainly come up which makes it a bit harder to get to him. Jalen Green has at least 57 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and is a guy I love getting back to in this one. If Smith is forced to miss again we would likely see Tari Eason back in the starting lineup and would be a guy I go right back to as well, but I think we can jump off of that train if he moves back to the bench. Then guys like KJ Martin and Eric Gordon will look like solid secondary options with Porter Jr. continuing to be out.
5-star play: Deni Avdija, Kyle Kuzma, Jalen Green
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Daniel Gafford, Alperen Sengun, KJ Martin, Tari Eason (if starting)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Monte Morris, Jabari Smith, Eric Gordon
Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors
Vegas Total: 245.5
Vegas Spread: Gsw -3.0
Starting with the Grizzlies, Steven Adams will remain out while Ja Morant is expected to return. I would expect to see Xavier Tillman start in Adams’ place and will look like a solid value option, but it also opens up minutes for Brandon Clarke as well who will also look like a great value in a fast-paced game. Ja Morant dropped nearly 57 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and is a guy I like going back to, although we haven’t seen a ceiling game from him in a while. Jaren Jackson sees a nice boost with Adams out as well and is a guy I like getting to here as well as the Warriors go with a small ball lineup. Finally, Desmond Bane kept it rolling last time out and has shown some great consistency as of late which is part of the reason we haven’t seen Morant’s ceiling as much as of late. From the Warriors, they’re going to keep Jordan Poole in the starting lineup moving forward while Kevon Looney moves to the bench which essentially kills Looney’s value at this price tag. He doesn’t have the type of usage rate to control a second until like Poole does. Then Poole moving into the starting lineup next to Klay and Curry is only going to take usage away from the rest of these guys… so it’ll be something to watch moving forward. Speaking of Steph Curry, he’s playing massive minutes and I love this matchup for him, he missed this matchup earlier in the season, but he should have no issue producing here. I can’t say I love either Jordan Poole or Klay Thompson at their price tags, one of them could have a nice game, but they’re priced up and as I mentioned, they’re both going to be fighting for usage in that starting unit. Andrew Wiggins struggled big time last time out but is a fine GPP option in this one. Lastly, Draymond Green moving to the five will be beneficial for fantasy purposes, he’s going to look great at this price tag, and I would expect to see his rebound equity climb.
5-star play: Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke, Ja Morant, Steph Curry
4-star play: Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Draymond Green
Deeper Value: Xavier Tillman
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins
Toronto Raptors @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 239.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -3.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet returned last time out and is a guy I think we can go right back to in this one, he dropped 69 FanDuel points in this spot earlier this season. Pascal Siakam struggled in that game, maybe partially due to how great VanVleet was in that game, but the matchup is great, and will be a guy I go right back to here. Scottie Barnes has been in great form as of late and is playing all of the minutes he can handle. Over the last two weeks, he has had a 21.3% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. Then guys like Gary Trent and OG Anunoby are secondary guys, Trent Jr. has been in better form. Anunoby does come in as questionable, so keep an eye on his status, if he’s forced to miss we could see more minutes for guys like Chris Boucher and even Juancho Hernangomez. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis had a rough game last time out relative to his price tag but performed well in this spot earlier this season. De’Aaron Fox has been in great form as of late and is a guy I don’t have an issue going right back to in this one. Kevin Huerter came down to Earth last time out and only played 21 minutes, he would be more of a secondary guy for me but has been a guy I’ve fallen on quite a bit as a filler piece this season. Harrison Barnes looks like a nice mid-range option in all formats right there with him. Then guys like Keegan Murray and Malik Monk are fine GPP flyers as well, Murray continues to be in great form.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Scottie Barnes, Gary Trent Jr, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Keegan Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: OG Anunoby, Chris Boucher, Malik Monk
Utah Jazz @ Portland Trail Blazers
Vegas Total: 239.5
Vegas Spread: Por -3.5
Starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen is going to look great here, he’s been in good form as well. This Blazers defense isn’t exactly great, so I like going right back to the well. Guys like Walker Kessler and Jarred Vanderbilt will have their hands full with Nurkic down low and are probably more of GPP options for me due to the volatility we’ve seen in their minutes. That said, Kessle did see a minutes decrease last time out due to foul trouble, so I would expect those to come up. Jordan Clarkson is a fine option as well but hasn’t been a guy I’ve gotten a ton of as of late in his price range. I do like Mike Conley who has at least 30 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. From the Blazers, Damian Lillard has been on some kind of heater as of late, over the last two weeks he has a 33.6% usage rate and 1.61 fantasy points per minute. The Jazz certainly are not a defense that scares me either. Jusuf Nurkic bounced back in a big way last time out and is a guy I love going right back to here in a great matchup against a Jazz team that has been beaten by opposing big men all season. Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons continue to float in that 30-40 fantasy point range which is fine at their price tags, but not guys I feel the need to prioritize. Finally, Josh Hart will play all the minutes he can handle but isn’t a big per-minute guy.
5-star play: Damian Lillard
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson, Walker Kessler, Mike Conley, Jusuf Nurkic, Jerami Grant, Anfernee Simons, Josh Hart
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley, Collin Sexton, Anfernee Simons
San Antonio Spurs @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 243.5
Vegas Spread: Lal -6.5
Starting with the Spurs, Keldon Johnson has shown some nice consistency as of late and is a guy I like going right back to in a nice matchup here. Tre Jones bounced back nicely last time out and has a 19.3% usage rate and 1.07 fantasy points per minute with Devin Vassell off of the court over the last two weeks. The minutes on Jakob Poeltl are all over the place lately which makes it hard to prioritize him, but makes plenty of sense as a GPP option. Then guys like Jeremy Sochan and Josh Richardson make sense as tournament options to round out the team. Then we’ll round the slate out with the Lakers who are expecting Anthony Davis back here. He’s been out awhile and will be limited to around 20 minutes, so not a guy I think we can get to here. Davis being back will hurt the rates for pretty much the rest of the team, so I’ll be underweight on guys like Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, and Russell Westbrook. I do still think we can get to LeBron James here simply due to how great he’s been as of late with at least 60 DraftKings points in four of his last five games.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, LeBron James
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jakob Poeltl, Jermey Sochan, Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, Russell Westbrook
NBA Lock of the Day: Deni Avdija (DK – $4.0k; FD – $5.0k)
I’m going to make it pretty easy and go right back to the well with our lock of the day from yesterday, as his price did not move and gets an even better matchup with the Rockets. The Wizards traded away Rui Hachimura and will be without Kristaps Porzingis again which will open up a ton of minutes for Avdija. Deni Avdija is averaging 34.2 DraftKings/33.18 FanDuel points per game in four games with Porzingis out this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
