Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/24:
Jan 22, 2023; Portland, Oregon, USA; Los Angeles Lakers center Thomas Bryant (31) reacts after a dunk during the second half against the Portland Trail Blazers at Moda Center. Mandatory Credit: Soobum Im-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Chicago Bulls @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Chi -1.0
We’ll kick this slate off by starting with the Bulls, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic, and DeMar DeRozan are all in a similar price range and are all in solid form as of late. I love the matchup with a Pacers team that is pretty clearly tanking since Haliburton went down. My preference of the three would just go by price, so on DraftKings give me Nikola Vucevic and on FanDuel give me Nikola Vucevic. That said, it may be hard to stomach the price tag as we’re used to seeing them in the mid-$7k range outside of DeRozan, but the matchup is great. The rest of this team is a different story, I suppose you could make a case for Patrick Williams and Alex Caruso who have been playing well, but I would hope we get better value to open up on a good-sized slate. From the Pacers, Myles Turner bounced back in a big way last time out and is a guy I have no issue going right back to. He’s going to produce nicely as long as the minutes are there… but good luck predicting those. This game should stay close, so I would think the minutes are there for all these starters. The same case can be made for Buddy Hield who bounced back last time out as well. TJ McConnell drew the start last time out and did not disappoint, he has a 17.9% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Tyrese Haliburton off of the court this season and is a guy I like going right back to the well with here. Then guys like Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, and even Chris Duarte make sense as GPP options in a great matchup.
5-star play: Myles Turner
4-star play: Nikola Vucevic, Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Buddy Hield, TJ McConnell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Chris Duarte
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Celtics, we don’t have an injury report on the Celtics quite yet, but I would imagine Marcus Smart and Malcolm Brogdon come in questionable while Robert Williams is back in the starting lineup. I’ll operate under the assumption that they’re all good to go here and adjust as needed. Jayson Tatum came down to Earth against the Magic last night but had at least 70 DraftKings points in back-to-back games going in and will be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Jaylen Brown had a down game last night as well, it just felt like one of those games that the Celtics felt okay with losing. I don’t love the matchup for any of these guys all that much but they make sense as secondary/GPP options at the very least. Robert Williams has been in solid form and is someone I’m fine with here as well, but I can’t say I love the price tag. Then Al Horford is just not a guy I’ve gotten to a whole lot this season, I don’t see the need to go there in this one either. From the Heat, Bam Adebayo has come down to Earth over his last couple of games but I do still like the matchup against a Celtics team that isn’t great at rebounding. Jimmy Butler is averaging 44.3 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Celtics this season and is a fine option as well. The price tag on Tyler Herro has come way down which is warranted as this team gets healthier, he’ll be more of a GPP guy for me in this one. I do think the price tag on Kyle Lowry is interesting on DraftKings where he’s just $4.8… less so on FanDuel, but I think he’s a strong option on DraftKings. This game just feels like one of those hard-nosed Eastern Conference matchups that is tough to love for fantasy matchups.
5-star play: Kyle Lowry (DraftKings)
4-star play: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Bam Adebayo, Jimmy Butler, Kyle Lowry (FanDuel)
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Marcus Smart, Malcolm Brogdon, Robert Williams, Tyler Herro, Victor Oladipo
Cleveland Cavaliers @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Cavaliers, it sounds like Donovan Mitchell is going to be able to give it a go in this one, and makes sense in all formats assuming he’s not limited, which I wouldn’t expect him to be. He’s averaging 53.1 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Knicks this season. Darius Garland kept it rolling last time out but will take a hit with Mitchell back in there and is priced as if Mitchell is out. Evan Mobley had a massive game last time out and is someone I like going back to in a nice matchup. The same can be said for Jarrett Allen who is in a similar price range. I’ll probably jump off of the Caris LeVert train with Mitchell back as well, I would expect he moves back to the bench. From the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson is going to miss the next few weeks after undergoing surgery on his thumb as well. Jericho Sims should continue to start and be the preferred option over Isaiah Hartenstein. He’s averaging 0.86 DraftKings points per minute with Robinsons off of the court this season and looks solid. Julius Randle has bounced back nicely over his last two, this is a tough matchup against Allen and Mobley down low, but we know the minutes will be there and will make sense as a GPP option at the very least. Jalen Brunson’s price tag has come way up, but it’s warranted due to his production as of late. That said, it’s trending in the wrong direction as of late, and is probably more of a secondary guy for me in a tough matchup. RJ Barrett is playing absolutely massive minutes right now and will make sense as well. Immanuel Quickley is a GPP-only guy as well as his production is fairly volatile as of late.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Jericho Sims
Deeper Value: Jericho Sims
GPP Sleeper: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert, Kevin Love, Immanuel Quickley, Isaiah Hartenstein
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Den -1.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic comes in as questionable after missing their last two games, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. He scored 71 fantasy points in this spot earlier this season and assuming he’s not limited, he’ll be a nice option. Jamal Murray ended up playing last time out even after being questionable all day, he had a great game and has at least 41 DraftKings points in four straight games. Aaron Gordon is probably more of a GPP option for me, but a guy I could be talked into for cash games at this price tag. I think I would just take the savings on Michael Porter Jr., who I would expect to see back here after missing their game last time out due to personal family issues. Then guys like Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown are fine GPP darts, but all of these guys would see a boost if Murray and/or Jokic sit in this one. I will say, if Jokic is out again, we can go right back to the Zeke Nnaji well, the Nuggets gave DeAndre Jordan a DNP-CD last time out, so it would be his frontcourt. From the Pelicans, Brandon Ingram and Zion Williamson will continue to be out while Naji Marshall comes in as questionable. Marshall would continue to start if he plays so keep an eye on that Breaking News Feed for updates. CJ McCollum had a tough go of it last time out in a bad matchup with the Heat. This isn’t a great bounce-back spot, but it’s certainly better than Miami. I’ll have more interest in Jonas Valanciunas if Jokic is forced to miss, but either way, they’ll need his size on the court and we’ve seen a massive ceiling from him this season. Then Trey Murphy has been in solid form as of late and is playing all the minutes he can handle, he’s in that Marshall group of players that looks solid to round out rosters with.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, Trey Murphy
Deeper Value: Zeke Nnaji (if Jokic is out)
GPP Sleeper: Michael Porter Jr., Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown
Washington Wizards @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 225.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -7.0
Starting with the Wizards, they traded Rui Hachimura to the Lakers yesterday, so he will not be available tonight and neither will Kristaps Porzingis as he sprained his ankle last time out. I would expect we see Deni Avdija moves back into the starting lineup and will look like a great option at this price tag. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Monte Morris – 18.4% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Bradley Beal – 31.5% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- Deni Avdija – 17.0% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Kyle Kuzma – 30.4% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Daniel Gafford – 17.2% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
All of these guys look like great options even in a slower-paced matchup with the Mavericks. Kristaps being out opens up a ton of usage and opportunity for the rest of this lineup. Kyle Kuzma kept it rolling last time out and has at least 48 FanDuel points in three of his last five games. I’m less thrilled about Bradley Beal who hasn’t topped 30 minutes since returning from injury, but I still think he looks solid here and he’s right around that 30-minute mark. Then guys like Avdija and Daniel Gafford will look good as well, Avdija is probably more cash viable but I wouldn’t fault you if you wanted to sprinkle Gafford in there as well. From the Mavericks, Luka Doncic was fine last time out but you expect more for the price we pay for him. That said, he’s going to look like a great spend-up option on this slate. Christian Wood will continue to be out, but we haven’t really seen anyone step up and take his minutes/production. It’s been a steady diet of Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock seeing all the minutes they can handle and are solid options yet again in this one. Spencer Dinwiddie is more of a GPP option as he fights for usage with Luka but we’ve seen him be fairly consistent as of late. The same can be said for Tim Hardaway Jr., but I think I’d prefer the price tag on him a bit more.
5-star play: Kyle Kuzma, Deni Avdija, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Bradley Beal, Daniel Gafford, Monte Morris, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Deeper Value: Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith
GPP Sleeper: Daniel Gafford, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr.
Charlotte Hornets @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Pho -7.0
Starting with the Hornets, LaMelo Ball comes in as questionable while Kelly Oubre Jr. will be out again. I’ll assume Ball returns here and will look like a solid option yet again as long as he’s going to stay under this $10k price tag. The price tag on FanDuel is even lower than it is on DraftKings, he’s going to look good in all formats. Terry Rozier would continue to fill in for Ball if he was forced to miss and will likely look like a solid play nonetheless. Mason Plumlee continues to be sneaky awesome and is averaging 38.6 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. PJ Washington came crashing down to Earth last night as he struggled big time with foul trouble, I have no issue if you want to go back to him here although his price tag has definitely come up. Lastly, Gordon Hayward should continue to float around 25 minutes and is a fine tournament option. From the Suns, Chris Paul returned last time out and was vaulted right back to his normal rotation playing 38 minutes against the Grizzlies. If he’s not going to be limited in any capacity, I’m going to like going right back to him in a great matchup in this one. They will, however, be without Deandre Ayton again which would set up for a nice spot for Bismack Biyombo and Jock Landale. I would expect to see Biyombo start, but he got in extremely quick foul trouble last time out which led to more minutes for Landale. My preferred option will be whoever starts, but it’s an elite matchup against a bad frontcourt. Mikal Bridges continues to play well and will play all the minutes he can handle and makes sense in all formats. Then guys like Damion Lee and Saben Lee are off of my radar with Paul and Cam Johnson back… speaking of Cam Johnson, he played 29 minutes last time out and is going to look solid to round out this team.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Chris Paul
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, Bismack Biyombo, Jock Landale, Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson
Deeper Value: Bismack Biyombo, Jock Landale
GPP Sleeper: Terry Rozier, Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, Cam Johnson
Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 231.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -5.5
Starting with the Clippers, I can’t say I love the price tag on Kawhi Leonard, but he’s been a lot better as of late with at least 48 FanDuel points in three of his last five, and gets an elite matchup with this Lakers’ defense tonight. Paul George would be my preferred option for cheaper, he’s averaging 42.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Lakers this season. Ivica Zubac is going to be a guy I love going back to in a revenge game! I’ve been targeting big men against the Lakers since Anthony Davis went down and it has not disappointed. He’s averaging 36.9 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Lakers this season and looks like a great option. Norman Powell is probably more of a GPP option with both George and Kawhi back in there, but the minutes should be there. Then guys like Marcus Morris and Terance Mann are in a similar boat but more GPP darts than anything, we’ve seen Mann’s minutes trend in the wrong direction. From the Lakers, Thomas Bryant and Dennis Schroder have bounced back in massive ways over their last couple of games. Schroder has at least 46 DraftKings points in back-to-back games after an extremely bad stretch about a week ago. Bryant got his minutes back kind of out of nowhere last time out and he crushed… he’s probably more of a GPP option with Wenyen Gabriel still lingering taking some of those minutes. LeBron James has crushed as well… he has a 36.1% usage rate and 1.63 fantasy points per minute over the last two weeks and will look like an elite spend-up yet again. Then we can round this team out with Russell Westbrook who is a GPP option as well.
5-star play: Ivica Zubac, LeBron James
4-star play: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Russell Westbrook, Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder
NBA Lock of the Day: Deni Avdija (DK – $4.0k; FD – $5.0k)
I touched on it with the Wizards, but they’ll be without Kristaps Porzingis here and traded Rui Hachimura to the Lakers which will open up minutes and opportunities for the rest of this lineup. Deni Avdija is averaging 33 DraftKings/31.6 FanDuel points per game in four games with Porzingis out this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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