Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/21:
Jan 17, 2023; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks guard Jrue Holiday (21) celebrates after scoring a basket during the fourth quarter against the Toronto Raptors at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Orlando Magic @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Was -6.0
Starting with the Magic, Franz Wagner had a massive night last night and now has at least 47 DraftKings points in two of his last three games. He’s never really a guy I prioritize but I’m more than okay if you land on him in all formats. Paolo Banchero hasn’t been great over his last couple of games and is a tournament-only guy for me here. I do like going back to Wendell Carter Jr., however, he hasn’t been great over his last two games but was good coming into those two, so he might have some volatility, but I still like him here. Markelle Fultz is probably more of a secondary option than anything, but again, the price is fine. Then guys like Cole Anthony and Bol Bol are tournament-only guys, as I said, the more bodies this team gets back, the less I like them. From the Wizards, Bradley Beal returned last time out and played 29 minutes, so I would imagine he’s not limited moving forward and will look like a nice option at his price tag. Kristaps Porzingis wasn’t harmed with Beal back either, he has at least 45 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Speaking of being in good form… Kyle Kuzma feels like he’s auditioning for a team to trade for him at the deadline. He has at least 59 DraftKings points in two of his last three and makes sense in all formats again in this one. Monte Morris is in good form as well and makes sense in the mid-range even with Beal back. Then guys like Daniel Gafford, Rui Hachimura, and Deni Avdija are all GPP darts to round out the team.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Bradley Beal, Kristaps Prozingis, Kyle Kuzma
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Paolo Banchero, Cole Anthony, Bol Bol, Monte Morris, Daniel Gafford, Rui Hachimura, Deni Avdija
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 221.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -1.5
Starting with the Bucks, the big news here is Giannis Antetokounmpo coming in as questionable. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s good to go in a big Eastern Conference matchup. He’s averaging 59.6 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Cavs this season and would be a good spend-up option in all formats assuming he’s not limited at all. Jrue Holiday has filled in nicely for him over his last couple with at least 60 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Bobby Portis would probably take the biggest hit if Giannis is good to go, he’d be a GPP-only option. Brook Lopez was ejected early in the fourth quarter last time out and is a solid option in a tough matchup, they’ll need his size down low. Joe Ingles had his best game as a Buck last time out and got his minutes over 30 for the first time. I would expect that is more of the norm as they try and figure out their rotation. Then guys like Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton would be tournament guys. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell ended up missing last night’s game, I would imagine, so he’s ready to go for this game… I think he plays tonight and will operate under that thinking. He’s averaging 42.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Bucks this season. Darius Garland has been on a heater over his last couple of games as he filled in for Mitchell, the price has come up, but I do like the matchup. I would be lower on him if Mitchell is able to give it a go, however. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are similar options, they get a tough matchup with a big Bucks team, but are solid options in a pace-up matchup. We can move Caris LeVert back to a tournament option with Mitchell back, but his price tag really isn’t all that bad. Lastly, Kevin Love will always make for a fine GPP option.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez, Joe Ingles, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Bobby Portis, Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Kevin Love, Caris LeVert
Charlotte Hornets @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -7.5
Starting with the Hornets, it sounds like LaMelo Ball is going to miss this one along with Kelly Oubre while Gordon Hayward is expected to play. I would expect Dennis Smith Jr. will start in his place. Below is how this team operates with these guys off of the court this season:
- Dennis Smith Jr. – 17.9% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Terry Rozier – 32.1% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Gordon Hayward – 25.2% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
- PJ Washington – 23.6% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Mason Plumlee – 13.7% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
I would expect Hayward sees a minute restriction and probably isn’t a guy I’ll get a ton of here but the rest of this team looks great at their price tags in an awesome matchup with this Hawks defense. From the Hawks, Trae Young ended up playing last night but had a terrible shooting night. I have no issue going right back to him here, he’s averaging 47.5 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Hornets this season. Clint Capela returned to the starting lineup last night but still saw only 20 minutes, until those minutes come up, I’ll be off of both him and Onyeka Okongwu. I like the price tag a good amount on Dejounte Murray and has at least 46 FanDuel points in four straight games and would look great in a nice matchup here. Then guys like John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and De’Andre Hunter will make sense as GPP options at their relative price tags.
5-star play: Dennis Smith Jr., Terry Rozier, Trae Young
4-star play: PJ Washington, Mason Plumlee, Dejounte Murray, John Collins
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jalen McDaniels, Gordon Hayward, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Clint Capela
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Houston Rockets @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Min -7.5
Starting with the Rockets, both Kevin Porter Jr. and Jabari Smith Jr. will be doubtful in this one, so they’ll be without their Jr’s tonight. I would expect to see guys like KJ Martin and Jae’Sean Tate back in the starting lineup and look like good options at their price tags. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court this season:
- Jalen Green – 35.8% usage rate; 1.21 fpm
- Eric Gordon – 25.6% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- Jae’Sean Tate – 18.2% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- KJ Martin – 19.0% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 22.2% usage rate; 1.26 fpm
I don’t have an issue with any of these guys and think they all look good at their respective price tags. Alperen Sengun has at least 54 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and will look great again here, although I’d like him more if Gobert is forced to miss again. The one guy I’m not thrilled with is Jae’Sean Tate… we haven’t seen him over 20 fantasy points in any of his last five games, but the minutes should be there. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns will remain out while Rudy Gobert comes in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption he’ll be good to go here. Edwards has been solid over his last handful of games and has been good with Towns off of the court this season with a 30.3% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute. Gobert will be a fine option if he can give it a go, but due to his recent form he won’t be a guy I’m all that thrilled to play. We kind of know what we’re getting out of D’Angelo Russell at this point, he’s going to play big minutes and probably be pretty solid, but not someone I’ll feel the need to prioritize… although he does feel a bit too cheap. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels are fine secondary GPP options to round out this team. I’ll go right back to Anderson if Gobert is out again however, he has at least 49 DraftKings points in three straight. Lastly, we can go right back to Naz Reid if Gobert is out again in this one.
5-star play: Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, KJ Martin, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Eric Gordon, Jae’Sean Tate, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell, Kyle Anderson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Eric Gordon, Jae’Sean Tate, Rudy Gobert, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid
Indiana Pacers @ Phoenix Suns
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Pho -5.5
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for the next few weeks, below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Bennedict Mathurin – 29.2% usage rate; 0.98 fpm
- TJ McConnell – 17.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Andrew Nembhard – 18.0% usage rate; 0.93 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 20.3% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
- Myles Turner – 24.1% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
This team is hard to grasp right now as they struggle to stay competitive and get their main guys their minutes. We’ve seen the starters have low minutes over their last couple of games due to blowouts. I’ll consider these guys more tournament options than anything, but they SHOULD be able to stay in this game… but then again, I thought that against the Thunder as well. Turner, Hield, McConnell, and Mathurin would be my favorite options. From the Suns, Chris Paul comes into this one as questionable but has missed about two weeks now, so if he plays I’ll assume a limited workload. They’ll be without Cam Johnson again as well as he rests after a nice return last time out. They resigned Saben Lee to a second 10-day contract and would be a guy I go right back to if Paul is forced to miss, he would likely start again in that scenario. I do like Deandre Ayton, however, he bounced back nicely last time out and gets a nice matchup in this one. Mikal Bridges will look good as well with at least 41 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and will play all the minutes he can handle.
5-star play: Saben Lee (if starting), Deandre Ayton
4-star play: Myles Turner, TJ McConnell, Bennedict Mathurin, Buddy Hield, Mikal Bridges
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Nembhard, Damion Lee
Philadelphia 76ers @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -2.0
Starting with the Sixers, James Harden comes into this one as questionable, but for the sake of this article, I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go in this one. Joel Embiid has been solid as of late with at least 55 FanDuel points in three straight games and is right up there with Giannis as the top spend-up option on the slate… I like Embiid’s matchup much more. James Harden bounced back nicely last time out and gets a great matchup here, he’s going to look like a great option. Tyrese Maxey is probably more of a secondary option, but we know the minutes will be there and he’s not afraid to demand some usage in this offense, he’s been a bit more volatile as of late however. Then guys like Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton are fine tournament options, but not priorities by any means, Harris came down to Earth last time out but has been in better form. From the Kings, Domantas Sabonis kept it rolling last time out and gets a tough matchup with Embiid down low. That said, he has at least 53 DraftKings points in four straight and makes sense in all formats. De’Aaron Fox has been a bit more volatile as of late but makes sense as a GPP option. Kevin Huerter came back to Earth last night but the minutes will be there and is a very solid mid-range option. Harrison Barnes looks like a nice mid-range option in all formats right there with him. Then guys like Keegan Murray and Malik Monk are fine GPP flyers as well, Murray had a massive game last night.
5-star play: Joel Embiid, James Harden, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Tyrese Maxey, Tobias Harris, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
NBA Lock of the Day: Dennis Smith Jr. (DK – $4.0k; FD – $5.7k)
They priced him way up on FanDuel, but I still think he’s viable whereas he’s an elite option on DraftKings. I would expect him to start for LaMelo Ball as he’s expected to miss this game. He has a 17.9% usage rate and 0.94 fantasy points per minute with Ball off of the court this season and is averaging 26.52 DraftKings/27.62 FanDuel points per game in 15 games without Ball this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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