Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/20:
Jan 17, 2023; San Antonio, Texas, USA; San Antonio Spurs forward Keldon Johnson (3) celebrates a three point shot late in the second half against the Brooklyn Nets at the AT&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
Save $50 on a DFS Army NBA Season Pass with coupon code NBA2022
New Orleans Pelicans @ Orlando Magic
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Nop -1.5
Starting with the Pelicans, they’ll be without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram again in this one and we’ve seen CJ McCollum’s price come way up. That said, he does have a 31.8% usage rate and 1.24 fantasy points per minute with these two off of the court this season. This is a nice bounce-back spot after a few down games. Jonas Valanciunas has been in great form as of late with at least 43 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and looks like a nice option again in this one. Naji Marshall comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but he’ll continue to start for Zion and has been in good form if he can give it a go. Then Trey Murphy is a fine option if you need a roster filler with Herb Jones missing their last few games and is questionable again in this one. From the Magic, Franz Wagner comes in as questionable as well, otherwise, this team is fairly healthy which is going to make it tough for me to prioritize anything here. Paolo Banchero hasn’t been great over his last couple of games and is a tournament-only guy for me here. I do like going back to Wendell Carter Jr., however, he has at least 40 DraftKings points in two of his last three and the price tag doesn’t bother me. Markelle Fultz is probably more of a secondary option than anything, but again, the price is fine. Then guys like Cole Anthony and Bol Bol are tournament-only guys, as I said, the more bodies this team gets back, the less I like them.
5-star play: None
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Naji Marshall, Trey Murphy, Paolo Banchero, Cole Anthony, Bol Bol
Golden State Warriors @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 226.5
Vegas Spread: Cle -7.0
Starting with the Warriors, I wouldn’t expect Klay Thompson to play on the back end of a back-to-back here and it sounds like Jordan Poole is going to continue to start for Kevon Looney even with Klay in there. Although, if Klay does sit this one out, we probably see Looney back in the starting lineup against a bigger Cavs frontcourt. Steph Curry kept it rolling last night and now has at least 53 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and feels like he’s starting to shake the rust off a bit. Andrew Wiggins was a guy I had in my core plays last night and is a guy I like going back to here, although his price did come up a bit since last night. The minutes will continue to be there and should benefit if Klay ends up sitting. Draymond Green moving to the five is going to help his production, there are no two ways around it, I’m going to like him going forward and I expect that price tag gets over $7k in the coming weeks. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell comes in as questionable but the spread makes me think he’s going to be good to go here, so I’ll operate under the assumption that he starts, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. He dropped 62.5 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season and makes sense in all formats again in this one. Darius Garland has been on a heater over his last couple of games as he filled in for Mitchell, the price has come up, but I do like the matchup. Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley should do whatever they want in the frontcourt especially if the Warriors deploy that small ball lineup that we saw last night with Draymond at the five. We can move Caris LeVert back to a tournament option with Mitchell back, but his price tag really isn’t all that bad. Lastly, Kevin Love will always make for a fine GPP option.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley
4-star play: Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevon Looney, Kevin Looney, Caris LeVert
Miami Heat @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.0
Starting with the Heat, Kyle Lowry returned last time out and played 22 minutes, I’ll be off of him until those minutes come back up. That said, Gabe Vincent will go back to the bench and lose minutes and production with Lowry back in there, so we can hop off that train. Jimmy Butler had a rough go of it last time out and this is a slow-paced game… that said, his price tag is really nice. Bam Adebayo has been in incredible form as of late and is a guy I like going right back to in this one, especially with that Dallas frontcourt being banged up. The price tag on Tyler Herro has come way down and is finally in a playable range, I think he looks like a strong option in all formats at this price tag. Then guys like Victor Oladipo and Max Strus are solid mid-range options but do take a slight hit with Lowry back in there. From the Mavs, they’ll be without Christian Wood for the next few weeks as he has a fracture in his thumb, I would expect to see guys like Dwight Powell and Davis Bertans take on a majority of his minutes. I’m not sure either of them is worth a roster spot right now, but if you want to take a GPP dart throw on Bertans and say he gets 25+ minutes, I can get behind that. Nobody else really benefits from the open usage, Luka Doncic will continue to look incredible and has a 39% usage rate and 1.66 fantasy points per minute with Wood off of the court this season, but I can’t say I love the matchup. That said, Luka is firmly matchup-proof and looks like a nice option in all formats. Tim Hardaway Jr. is expected to return here and it doesn’t seem like he’ll be limited at all making him and Spencer Dinwiddie solid GPP options as well. While Dorian Finney-Smith and Reggie Bullock will continue to see all the minutes they can handle and are fine roster fillers.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Tyler Herro, Spencer Dinwiddie
Deeper Value: Dwight Powell, Davis Bertans
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Lowry, Max Strus, Victor Oladipo, Spencer Dinwiddie, Tim Hardaway Jr., Reggie Bullock, Dorian Finney-Smith, Davis Bertans
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
New York Knicks @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: 229.5
Vegas Spread: Atl -2.5
Starting with the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson is going to miss the next few weeks after undergoing surgery on his thumb as well. I would expect Isaiah Hartenstein to return to the starting lineup and will make for a great value option in all formats. He’s the stone minimum on DraftKings while he’s $4k on FanDuel, he has a 12.6% usage rate and 0.87 fantasy points per minute with Robinson off of the court this season. Julius Randle continues to play around 40 minutes per game and had a pretty terrible shooting game last time out… but I do love the matchup with this Hawks defense. Jalen Brunson’s price tag has come way up, but it’s warranted due to his production as of late. I don’t know how sustainable it is with RJ Barrett back. Speaking of RJ Barrett he’s a guy I’ll go right back to here as well, he’s going to continue to play around 40 minutes per game and is too cheap here. Immanuel Quickley will lose minutes with Barrett back but his price tag has come down enough that I think he’s viable in GPPs. From the Hawks, Trae Young comes in as questionable here, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays, but has struggled against the Knicks this season averaging just 34.3 DraftKings points per game in two games against them. Clint Capela continued to come off of the bench last time out which kills the center position for the Hawks, I can’t get to him or Onyeka Okongwu as they both float around 22-25 minutes… the minutes for Capela will come up sooner rather than later. I like the price tag a good amount on Dejounte Murray and has at least 46 FanDuel points in three straight games and would look great if Young were forced to sit. Then guys like John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, and De’Andre Hunter will make sense as GPP options at their relative price tags.
5-star play: Isaiah Hartenstein, Julius Randle
4-star play: Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Trae Young, Dejounte Murray
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Immanuel Quickley, Obi Toppin, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter
Los Angeles Clippers @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Lac -7.0
Starting with the Clippers, Paul George has seen his minutes slowly climb up but hasn’t looked great since returning from injury. This is a nice bounce-back spot, but he’s more of a tournament option for me until we see it from him. The price tag on Kawhi Leonard has skyrocketed, particularly on DraftKings where he’s now over $10k, if you want to get to him in a revenge game, I would get that exposure on FanDuel. Norman Powell and Terance Mann have seen price increases as well and would be tournament guys, especially with George and Kawhi expected to play in this one. The Clippers have moved Mann into the starting lineup over Reggie Jackson and John Wall which is why he’s been seeing so many minutes as of late and it does look a lot smoother than with one of those other guys in there. Ivica Zubac was a guy I was all over last time out and was actually my lock of the day. I like going right back to him in this one, although Poeltl is tough on opposing big men down low. He’s averaging 34.0 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Spurs this season. Then I have no issue with Marcus Morris and Nic Batum rounding out the team. From the Spurs, Keldon Johnson had a ceiling game last time out and is a guy I like going right back to in this one even at an elevated price tag. Tre Jones came down to Earth last time out but has been in great form as of late and has a 23.7% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute with Devin Vassell off of the court over the last two weeks. The minutes on Jakob Poeltl are all over the place lately which makes it hard to prioritize him, but makes plenty of sense as a GPP option. Then guys like Jeremy Sochan and Josh Richardson make sense as tournament options to round out the team.
5-star play: None
4-star play: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard (FanDuel), Ivica Zubac, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Norman Powell, Terance Mann, Jeremy Sochan, Josh Richardson
Indiana Pacers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 240.0
Vegas Spread: Den -11.0
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for the next few weeks, below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Bennedict Mathurin – 29.6% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- TJ McConnell – 17.8% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- Andrew Nembhard – 17.6% usage rate; 0.95 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 20.6% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Myles Turner – 23.8% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
This team was a massive disappointment last time out… guys like Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, and TJ McConnell were duds. That said, they’re going to continue to look good again in this game with an implied total of 240. Turner saw just 20 minutes as the team got down early and went to the bench for production, I have no issue going back to him here especially if the public will be off of him after that game. The same can be said for Buddy Hield as well, he saw just 19 minutes. Hopefully, that was a fluke game against a Thunder team and they were sleepwalking, I’m going right back to the well with a grin on my face. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic is going to look like a top option on the slate yet again, he has at least 63 FanDuel points in back-to-back games. Jamal Murray feels like he’s just slightly overpriced but does still have some meat on the bone when he produces those ceiling games, so he’s in play for tournaments at the very least and had a nice night last night. Aaron Gordon is probably more of a GPP option for me, but a guy I could be talked into for cash games at this price tag. I think I would just take the savings on Michael Porter Jr., who does come with some more volatility but I love the upside on him. Then guys like Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown are fine GPP darts.
5-star play: Myles Turner, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Bennedict Mathurin, Buddy Hield, Andrew Nembhard, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: TJ McConnell, Andrew Nembhard, Michael Porter Jr., Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown
Brooklyn Nets @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 229.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -7.5
Starting with the Nets, they’ll be without Kevin Durant again in this one, we saw Joe Harris start in his place last time out and looked good, so I would expect more of the same here. Below is how this team operates with Durant off of the court this season:
- Kyrie Irving – 35.0% usage rate; 1.31 fpm
- Joe Harris – 14.7% usage rate; 0.66 fpm
- Ben Simmons – 14.1% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Nic Claxton – 18.9% usage rate; 1.22 fpm
- TJ Warren – 23.2% usage rate; 0.86 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Nets, Royce O’Neale will look good as well, he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle in a great matchup. Those big men in Claxton and Simmons will continue to look great considering the form they’re in. Kyrie bounced back in a big way last night and will look great again in a nice matchup with the Jazz here. Speaking of the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen continues to play great basketball and has at least 50 DraftKings points in three straight games. I love going right back to the well on him, don’t let the price tag scare you. Jordan Clarkson hasn’t been good as of late, but the minutes will be there, so no issue going back to him as a secondary option. Mike Conley has been much better as of late as well and makes sense at his current price tag. Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler should continue to see good run with Olynyk out and Kessler is turning himself into a legit starting center in this league. He’s a great option yet again and has at least 37 FanDuel points in four straight games. Then Malik Beasley is just a tournament option right now, he has not been in good form but the minutes have been solid.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Lauri Markkanen
4-star play: Ben Simmons, Nic Claxton, Walker Kessler, Mike Conley, Jordan Clarkson
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Joe Harris, Seth Curry, TJ Warren, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt
Memphis Grizzlies @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 243.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -7.5
Starting with the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been fine as of late but we haven’t seen that big ceiling game much as this team begins to get back to full health. I do like the matchup quite a bit and is a guy I think we can get to in all formats. Jaren Jackson has at least 42 FanDuel points in five of his last seven games and makes plenty of sense in all formats here. Steven Adams bounced back nicely last time out and big men have been eating up this Lakers frontcourt since Davis has been out. Brandon Clarke has been a solid piece, but I would imagine we get better value on a nice-sized slate tonight. Finally, Desmond Bane should continue to see good minutes and has at least 44 FanDuel points in two of his last three games but has seen his price tag skyrocket to where it probably should be. From the Lake Show, LeBron James has been on a tear with at least 60 DraftKings points in four straight games and is going to be an elite option once again in this one. Russell Westbrook has been in much better form as of late but that’s reflected in his price tag, he’s probably more of a tournament option but I do like the pace we’re expecting in this one. Thomas Bryant is extremely hard to trust right now as his minutes continue to trend in the wrong direction, I don’t see how we can get to him here in anything other than MME. Wenyen Gabriel has stolen some of those minutes and makes sense as a GPP option as well. Then Dennis Schroder is a fine option to round out the team, but not a guy that I NEED to get to at that price tag… he’s been pretty terrible as of late.
5-star play: Ja Morant, LeBron James
4-star play: Jaren Jackson Jr., Desmond Bane, Steven Adams, Russell Westbrook
Deeper Value: Max Christie
GPP Sleeper: Brandon Clarke, Thomas Bryant, Dennis Schroder, Wenyen Gabriel
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 241.5
Vegas Spread: Sac -3.5
Starting with the Thunder, I love going right back to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a fast-paced matchup with the Kings. He was destroying the Pacers early last time out but lost some minutes due to a blowout, he’s going to look like a nice option in all formats. Josh Giddey has at least 51 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and makes sense yet again in this one. Jalen Williams bounced back nicely last time out and is a guy I like going right back to here, he’s too cheap. We kind of know the deal with Lu Dort by now, he’s going to play a bunch of minutes and is volatile, so more of a tournament option. Then we get to the frontcourt which remains a mess, I don’t think we can prioritize any of these guys and hopefully, we can find better value on this slate. From the Kings, I’m going to love going back to Domantas Sabonis in this one, he does come in as questionable after missing their last game however so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to this game. De’Aaron Fox has been a bit more volatile as of late but this is an elite bounce-back spot and is a guy I think we can go back to here. Kevin Huerter got his minutes back up last time out and had a nice game, I have no issue going right back to him here as well. Harrison Barnes looks like a nice mid-range option in all formats right there with him. Then guys like Keegan Murray and Malik Monk are fine GPP flyers as well.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams, De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, Kenrich Williams, Keegan Murray, Malik Monk
NBA Lock of the Day: Isaiah Hartenstein (DK – $3.0k; FD – $4.0k)
The Knicks will be without Mitchell Robinson for the next few weeks as he underwent thumb surgery which opens up minutes for this frontcourt. I would expect we see Hartenstein in the starting lineup, but even off of the bench he’ll see a boost in minutes and we’ve seen him be a great per-minute player in the past. Great matchup here with the Hawks as well, his salary opens up some of those higher-priced guys on this slate. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
The only thing you are missing at this point is the key to unlock the next level of your game. Come inside and check us out!! We have experts sharing their secrets and experience on a daily basis. Combining that with the actual ability to ask them questions and get quick answers in return gives you a recipe for success that puts our army hats on leaderboards all over the face of DFS.
When you sign up, don’t forget to use promo code MADNESS to save 10% on your membership each and every month!
Editor’s Note – However, if you are more interested in simply betting the games, NBA is full of crazy action. And, our dynamic modeling over at SharpBets adjusts in real time to help identify Vegas inaccuracies you can exploit. Follow Ryan, Anthony, and Statsational for models and coaching advice that help you build any bankroll for any sport…
