Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/1:
Dec 30, 2022; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Joe Ingles (7) reacts after scoring a 3 point basket during the third quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Sacramento Kings @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 240.0
Vegas Spread: Mem -4.5
We’ll kick off the new year with the Kings! Domantas Sabonis hasn’t been hindered by his injured hand, since returning he has at least 52 DraftKings points and is averaging 57.3 DraftKings points in his last four games. He’s going to look like an elite option yet again in this one. De’Aaron Fox has been a bit more volatile than I’d like to see, but the upside is obviously there in a game that features a 240 implied total and should stay close. Then the trio of Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, and Malik Monk are all floating in that $5k range and are fine secondary tournament options in a good matchup. Lastly, Keegan Murray got his minutes back and had a solid game last time out as well, he’s going to be in play on a short slate in this game. From the Grizzlies, Desmond Bane has been floating around the 30-minute mark but hasn’t quite gotten over it which makes it hard for me to prioritize him… but I still might given how much his price tag has fallen. Those minutes will get back to his normal mid-30s at some point, and I want to be on him when that happens. Ja Morant has been fine as of late but the price tag is falling which is the intriguing part. The matchup is obviously awesome and the game environment will set him up to be a great option on this slate. Jaren Jackson bounced back nicely last night and gets a great matchup yet again here, he’s going to look great at his current price tag as well. Dillon Brooks would be more of a secondary GPP option, especially with Bane back in the rotation. I do like Steven Adams here, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and should dominate the paint in this one. Then Brandon Clarke will make sense as a tournament option, he’s been in good form as of late.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, De’Aaron Fox, Desmond Bane, Ja Morant
4-star play: Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Jaren Jackson, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Brandon Clarke, Dillon Brooks
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Washington Wizards @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 226.0
Vegas Spread: Mil -6.5
Starting with the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis was a guy I was all over last time out with Beal sitting, and made for a perfect run back to all our Orlando guys. If Beal is forced to miss again I think we can go right back to the well, he has at least 50 FanDuel points in two of his last three games. Kyle Kuzma is a fine option as well, this is a pace-up spot for the Wizards but I would prefer Beal is out in order to make him a priority. Speaking of Bradley Beal, he comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s able to go and would be more of a secondary GPP option for me in this spot. Deni Avdija had a great game last time out and when he sees minutes he fills the stat sheet, so no issue going right back to him in tournaments here. Then Monte Morris is a solid secondary option if you happened to land on him as a last piece in. From the Bucks, they’ll be without Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday again in this one. I would expect to see Jevon Carter and Pat Connaughton slide into the starting lineup in their places. Below is how this team operates with Middleton and Jrue off of the court this season:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo – 40.2% usage rate; 1.78 fpm
- Jevon Carter – 18.0% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
- Bobby Portis – 23.8% usage rate; 1.15 fpm
- Brook Lopez – 19.5% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- Grayson Allen – 16.2% usage rate; 0.76 fpm
- Pat Connaughton – 18.0% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
Giannis looks like the top option from this team and it’s really not all that close… he’s the first guy since Moses freaking Malone to have back-to-back games with 40 points and 20 rebounds, he’s an elite option again here. I do like these other big men in Portis and Lopez as well, they’ve been sneaky great this season. Then Connaughton and Carter make sense as value options to round out this team. I should touch on Joe Ingles as well, he saw his most minutes as a Buck last time out and dropped a double-double pretty easily… he could be an interesting value play as well, the minutes will be there.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Bradley Beal, Bobby Portis, Brook Lopez, Grayson Allen, Jevon Carter
Deeper Value: Joe Ingles
GPP Sleeper: Bradley Beal, Deni Avdija, Monte Morris, Pat Connaughton, Joe Ingles
Boston Celtics @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 234.0
Vegas Spread: Bos -2.0
Starting with the Celtics, Jayson Tatum came down to Earth last time out but he’s still too cheap here, especially on DraftKings where he’s closer to $10k than he is $11k. He’s averaging 56.3 DraftKings points per game over his last five games and would make sense in all formats yet again here. I’ll never have an issue with Jaylen Brown either, he’s a bit more scoring dependent than I love in this price range, but he continues to get it done. Marcus Smart has at least 35 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and will make sense as well here. Malcolm Brogdon and Derrick White have been solid as well, but are more secondary options than anything for me on this slate. The same can be said for Al Horford who is just meh for me at this point… he hasn’t done anything all that impressive this season. Then we get to Robert Williams who I’m going to go right back to here. He’s floating around the 21-minute mark over his last few games but is dominating on a per-minute basis. If he can get those minutes up to the 25-minute range, he’s going to look great and I like the chances against a big Nuggets team. Speaking of the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic will look like one of those spend-up options the slate up there with Giannis and Tatum. The Celtics aren’t a good rebounding team and he’s bigger than anyone Boston can throw at him. Jamal Murray came down to Earth last time out but the minutes are going to be there if he’s able to give it a go. He comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. Michael Porter Jr. is more of a tournament option due to the volatility he can show at times, but we know the ceiling on him is huge considering his price tag. Aaron Gordon is another guy I like on the wing here, he has at least 42 DraftKings points in three of his last five, so no issue going right back to him as well. Then we can round this slate out with Bruce Brown as a GPP option.
5-star play: Jayson Tatum, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Malcolm Brogdon, Derrick White, Al Horford, Michael Porter Jr., Bruce Brown
NBA Lock of the Day: Robert Williams (DK – $4.4k; FD – $5.4k)
I’m going to continue to go to the Robert Williams well again tonight. He hasn’t quite gotten his full minutes back yet but it feels like he’s extremely close. Even floating around 20-22 minutes right now he’s finding ways to get it done and has 1.19 fantasy points per minute on the season. They’ll need his size against a big Nuggets team tonight. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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