Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/18:
Nov 27, 2022; Los Angeles, California, USA; Los Angeles Clippers center Ivica Zubac (40) blocks a shot by Indiana Pacers guard Buddy Hield (24) in the first half at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Washington Wizards @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -6.0
Starting with the Wizards, it sounds like Bradley Beal is on the verge of returning from injury. That said, I’m just going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again… he’ll likely be limited if he’s able to play anyway, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock. Kristaps Porzingis has been in fine form and would be a guy I’m okay with going back after a nice game last time out, while Kyle Kuzma came back down to Earth after a massive game against this very same Knicks team two games ago. The minutes on Daniel Gafford haven’t been in that upper-20s range that was very productive for DFS, so he’ll look more like a tournament option than anything. Then guys like Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, and Rui Hachimura are all GPP options who would take a hit if Beal is able to give it a go. From the Knicks, Julius Randle continues to play around 40 minutes per game and had a pretty terrible shooting game last time out… but was still able to drop a 50-burger on the Raptors. I like going right back to him in this one. Jalen Brunson’s price tag has come way up, but it’s warranted due to his production as of late. I don’t know how sustainable it is with RJ Barrett back, we’ve seen him come down to earth over his last couple of games. Speaking of RJ Barrett, he bounced back nicely last time out and played a massive 49 minutes, he’s too cheap here and is a guy I like going right back to. Immanuel Quickley will lose minutes with Barrett back but his price tag has come down enough that I think he’s viable in GPPs. Then Mitchell Robinson is right there in that GPP group as well and should continue to play big minutes.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett
Deeper Value: Delon Wright
GPP Sleeper: Daniel Gafford, Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura, Delon Wright, Immanuel Quickley, Mitchell Robinson
Atlanta Hawks @ Dallas Mavericks
Vegas Total: 231.5
Vegas Spread: Dal -3.5
Starting with the Hawks, Clint Capela returned last time out after missing nearly a month of action. He played 21 minutes and I would expect more of the same here which makes him more of a tournament option until those minutes start to come up. This is a sizeable pace-down matchup, about -5.0 possessions per game, so Trae Young may take a hit but he’s still in great form as of late and makes sense in all formats. Dejounte Murray has at least 49 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and will continue to look good again in this one. Onyeka Okongwu saw the start last time out even with Capela back as they try to ease him back into the rotation. At some point, that is going to flip and the minutes are going to start to be impacted for Okongwu, so I’m okay jumping off that train now. John Collins and De’Andre Hunter haven’t been in the best form as of late, but we know the minutes will be there, so I have no issue going right back to them in GPPs in this one while Bogdan Bogdanovic would be more of a GPP-type guy as well. From the Mavericks, Luka Doncic should return in this one after missing their last game. I would imagine he’s a full go and will look like a top spend-up option on the slate. It’s a pace-down game for the Hawks… but that means it’s a pace-up spot for Doncic and the Mavs here. Christian Wood continues to look great and has at least 35 minutes in four straight games which are huge for his production, I have no issue going right back to him in tournaments at the very least. I’ll likely come off of the Spencer Dinwiddie train here with Luka back as well, but you can make a case for him in GPPs. Then Jaden Hardy was a guy I got a bunch of last slate with Tim Hardaway still out, and that probably won’t change here, he’s certainly not afraid to shoot while he’s in there.
5-star play: Trae Young, Luka Doncic
4-star play: Dejounte Murray, De’Andre Hunter, Christian Wood
Deeper Value: Jaden Hardy
GPP Sleeper: Clint Capela, John Collins, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jaden Hardy
Indiana Pacers @ Oklahoma City Thunder
Vegas Total: 240.0
Vegas Spread: Okc -4.0
Starting with the Pacers, Tyrese Haliburton will be out for the next few weeks, below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Bennedict Mathurin – 29.8% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
- TJ McConnell – 18.1% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Andrew Nembhard – 17.1% usage rate; 0.91 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 20.9% usage rate; 1.04 fpm
- Myles Turner – 24.6% usage rate; 1.33 fpm
McConnell will likely continue to come off of the bench but he has performed nicely with at least 35 DraftKings points in four straight games. Don’t worry if he’s coming off of the bench, the minutes will still be there for him. Bennedict Mathurin sees a really nice boost in usage with Haliburton out but still can be volatile at times. I still think he’s a pretty great option in all formats. Then guys like Nembhard, Hield, and Turner are nice options against this Thunder defense. From the Thunder, I love going right back to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a great matchup against the Pacers here even though he’s not coming off of his best game against the Nets. Josh Giddey has at least 51 DraftKings points in three of his last four games and makes sense yet again in this one. I liked Jalen Williams quite a bit as a runback to all the Nets we played last time out, but it didn’t end up working out as he couldn’t hit a shot… I don’t have an issue with going back to him here. We kind of know the deal with Lu Dort by now, he’s going to play a bunch of minutes and is volatile, so more of a tournament option. Then we get to the frontcourt which remains a mess, I don’t think we can prioritize any of these guys and hopefully, we can find better value on this slate.
5-star play: TJ McConnell, Myles Turner, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
4-star play: Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Buddy Hield, Josh Giddey, Lu Dort
Deeper Value: Chris Duarte
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Chris Duarte, Lu Dort
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Mem -7.0
Starting with the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell comes in as doubtful, so it sounds like he’s going to miss this one. I would expect to see Caris LeVert start in his place, below is how this team operates with Mitchell off of the court this season:
- Darius Garland – 30.0% usage rate; 1.22 fpm
- Caris LeVert – 22.1% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Jarrett Allen – 23.7% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Evan Mobley – 21.7% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Kevin Love – 21.3% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the Cavs, we did see Ricky Rubio begin to see more minutes last time out but until he’s fully back I don’t think we can confidently go there as he shakes off the rust. Garland had a massive game last time out and is going to look great again as he looks to carry the offense. LeVert is the other big benefactor and will look like a great option in all formats. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant has been fine as of late but we haven’t seen that big ceiling game much as this team begins to get back to full health. I don’t love the matchup here either which will make him more of a GPP option for me. Jaren Jackson has at least 42 FanDuel points in four of his last six games and makes plenty of sense in all formats here. Steven Adams came down to Earth last time out but has been in elite form as of late. Brandon Clarke being back does hurt his minutes’ security a bit, but when he’s playing well, the minutes will be there regardless. Finally, Desmond Bane should continue to see good minutes and has at least 44 FanDuel points in back-to-back games but has seen his price tag skyrocket to where it probably should be.
5-star play: Darius Garland, Caris LeVert
4-star play: Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley, Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson, Steven Adams, Desmond Bane
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Love, Steven Adams, Desmond Bane, Ja Morant
Miami Heat @ New Orleans Pelicans
Vegas Total: 219.0
Vegas Spread: Mia -2.5
Starting with the Heat, it sounds like Kyle Lowry could return here as he comes in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again in this one. Gabe Vincent would continue to start if Lowry sits but came crashing down to Earth the last time out. He has at least 45 DraftKings points in his previous two games and is probably more of a secondary option as his price tag came up. Jimmy Butler bounced back nicely last time out and is a solid option in all formats in a nice matchup here. Bam Adebayo has been in incredible form as of late and is a guy I like going right back to in this one. I still don’t love the price tag on Tyler Herro but he looked good in this spot earlier this season. Then guys like Victor Oladipo and Max Strus are solid mid-range options. From the Pelicans, they’ll be without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram again in this one and we’ve seen CJ McCollum’s price come way up. That said, he does have a 32.8% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute with these two off of the court this season. I don’t love the matchup with the Heat here either. Jonas Valanciunas has been in great form as of late with at least 43 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and looks like a nice option again in this one. Naji Marshall should continue to start for Zion and has been great filling in for him even after a down game last time out. Then Trey Murphy is a fine option if you need a roster filler with Herb Jones likely out again in this one.
5-star play: Bam Adebayo
4-star play: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, CJ McCollum, Jonas Valanciunas, Naji Marshall
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Trey Murphy
Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets
Vegas Total: 237.5
Vegas Spread: Cha -1.5
Starting with the Hornets, they’ll continue to be without Kelly Oubre Jr. and Gordon Hayward in this one, so we’ll see Jalen McDaniels in the starting lineup yet again. Below is how this team operates with these two guys off of the court this season:
- Terry Rozier – 29.0% usage rate; 1.09 fpm
- LaMelo Ball – 31.4% usage rate; 1.32 fpm
- PJ Washington – 21.0% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Jalen McDaniels – 17.1% usage rate; 0.81 fpm
- Mason Plumlee – 15.5% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
These would be my favorite options from the team for obvious reasons, but the matchup is a great one as well. Any time LaMelo is under $10k… I’m going to have interest and is a guy I want to go right back to in this one. Rozier had a bit of a slump a few weeks ago but that is in the rearview as he continues to put up nice numbers. Mason Plumlee might be having the sneakiest DFS season in the league averaging 31.7 DraftKings points per game on the year and is a guy I like going right back to in this one. From the Rockets, Kevin Porter Jr. comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates surrounding his status, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. It’s a great matchup and would be a guy I like going back to assuming he’s not limited at all. The price tag on Jalen Green has come up with Porter Jr. which I don’t love, but he makes sense in GPPs. Alperen Sengun probably had the best game of his short career last time out against the Lakers and he gets another elite matchup in this one, but boy did that price tag come up. Then guys like Jabari Smith Jr. and Eric Gordon are fine tournament options to round out this team. I’ll likely be off of KJ Martin assuming Porter Jr. is back in this one.
5-star play: LaMelo Ball, Mason Plumlee
4-star play: Terry Rozier, Jalen McDaniels, PJ Washington, Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: PJ Washington, Jabari Smith Jr., Eric Gordon
Los Angeles Clippers @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 228.0
Vegas Spread: Uta -6.5
Starting with the Clippers, Paul George returned last night and played just 29 minutes which isn’t great, so I’ll be off of him until those minutes come back. That said, they could be without Kawhi Leonard on the back end of a back-to-back here which would help the rates for George… I’ll consider them both GPP options at best. Norman Powell and Terance Mann have seen price increases as well and would be tournament guys unless George or Kawhi or both end up sitting in this one. The Clippers have moved Mann into the starting lineup over Reggie Jackson and John Wall which is why he’s been seeing so many minutes as of late and it does look a lot smoother than with one of those other guys in there. Ivica Zubac is a guy I like quite a bit in this one, the Jazz are pretty terrible against opposing big men, and is a guy I want to go right back to the well with here. He’s averaging 31.3 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Jazz this season. Then I have no issue with Marcus Morris and Nic Batum to round out the team and the slate. From the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen comes into this one as questionable while Kelly Olynyk will be listed as out again. I’ll operate under the assumption that Markkanen is good to go here, but obviously, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. Markkanen continues to put up good numbers with at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. I do like his price tag much more on FanDuel where he’s just $8.2k opposed to his $9.4k DraftKings price tag. Jordan Clarkson came down to Earth last time out after a huge game against the Sixers, I have no problem going back to him as a secondary option in this one. Mike Conley returned last time out and had a nice game, I would have no issue going right back to him in this one. Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler should continue to see good run with Olynyk out and make for solid tournament options, Kessler is coming off of a massive game last time out. Then Malik Beasley was a disappointment over the last couple of games, I figured he’d take on a bigger role in the offense to account for Markkanen being out, but that didn’t happen. He’s more of a secondary tournament option in this one.
5-star play: Ivica Zubac
4-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Walker Kessler, Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Norman Powell, Terance Mann, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 237.0
Vegas Spread: Den -8.0
Starting with the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns will remain out while Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert come in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption they’ll be good to go here. Edwards has looked much better over his last few games and has been good with Towns off of the court this season with a 30.6% usage rate and 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Gobert left the game early on Monday and didn’t return, so he may be a true question mark tonight. If he’s able to go it will be a tough matchup down low with Jokic, if he can’t play, I would expect Naz Reid to start in his place. We kind of know what we’re getting out of D’Angelo Russell at this point, he’s going to play big minutes and probably be pretty solid, but not someone I’ll feel the need to prioritize… although he does feel a bit too cheap. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels are fine secondary GPP options to round out this team. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic had a massive triple-double last night and is going to look like a top spend-up option on this slate again. Jamal Murray feels like he’s just slightly overpriced but does still have some meat on the bone when he produces those ceiling games, so he’s in play for tournaments at the very least and had a nice night last night. Aaron Gordon is probably more of a GPP option for me, but a guy I could be talked into for cash games at this price tag. I think I would just take the savings on Michael Porter Jr., who does come with some more volatility but I love the upside on him. Then guys like Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown are fine GPP darts.
5-star play: Anthony Edwards, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers
Vegas Total: 245.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -4.5
We round out the slate with one hell of a late-night hammer, as this one comes in with an implied total of 245. We’ll start with the Kings, I’m going to love going back to Domantas Sabonis in this one, as I mentioned with Sengun earlier, the Lakers are bleeding fantasy production to opposing big men right now. Sabonis is averaging 53.1 DraftKings points per game in three games against the Lakers this season and looks like a great option in all formats. De’Aaron Fox has been a bit more volatile as of late but this is an elite bounce-back spot and is a guy I think we can go back to here. Kevin Huerter only played 23 minutes last time out as he still fights with some conditioning issues coming back from an illness, I would consider him more of a tournament guy while Harrison Barnes looks like a nice mid-range option in all formats. Then guys like Keegan Murray and Malik Monk are fine GPP flyers as well. From the Lakers, LeBron James has been on a tear with at least 61 DraftKings points in three straight games and is going to be an elite option once again in this one. Russell Westbrook has been in much better form as of late but that’s reflected in his price tag, he’s probably more of a tournament option but has performed well against the Kings this season. Thomas Bryant is not in great form but is another guy that has looked good against the Kings, so I have no issue going back to him here especially if the public will be lower on him due to those game logs. Then Dennis Schroder is a fine option to round out the team, but not a guy that I NEED to get to at that price tag.
5-star play: Domantas Sabonis, LeBron James
4-star play: De’Aaron Fox, Harrison Barnes, Russell Westbrook, Thomas Bryant
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Dennis Schroder
NBA Lock of the Day: Ivica Zubac (DK – $5.3k; FD – $5.7k)
Wanna get weird? Let’s get weird, this play is not for the faint of heart and probably doesn’t live up to the title as a true “lock”, but I think Zubac is going to get overlooked tonight in an elite matchup. His minutes are trending up with at least 30 in three of their last five games and the Jazz are giving up the second most fantasy points per game to opposing centers on the season. Zubac is averaging 31.3 DraftKings/31.7 FanDuel points per game in three games against the Jazz this season. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he has legit 10x upside in this one if the cards fall right. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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