Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/17:
Jan 4, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey (0) dribbles the ball Indiana Pacers during the third quarter quarter at Wells Fargo Center. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: 223.5
Vegas Spread: Mil -5.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet ended up playing yesterday and had a massive game against the Knicks. I touched on this the last time these two teams met, but this guy is a Bucks killer… he dropped 65 DraftKings points in that game and is averaging 46.57 DraftKings points per game in seven games against the Bucks since 2021. He’s going to be a guy I go right back to in this one. Pascal Siakam hasn’t been in quite as good of form as he was a few weeks ago, but the minutes are going to continue to be sky-high in a tough matchup with this Bucks frontcourt. Scottie Barnes has been in great form as well and should continue to play all the minutes he can handle again in this one, he has at least 46 FanDuel points in four of his last five games. OG Anunoby is a fine option and has been pretty consistent this season, but probably more of a secondary option while Gary Trent Jr. is a tournament-only guy for me. From the Bucks, I would think Khris Middleton continues to miss in this one while Giannis Antetokounmpo should play after being probably most of the day yesterday. My thinking is they thought they could get past the Pacers yesterday without Giannis and that they’d give him one more day of rest. Hopefully, the time off will help him return to form here and will be a top spend-up option on the slate. Jrue Holiday filled in nicely for these guys yesterday and is a solid option yet again here even at an elevated price tag. Bobby Portis is probably priced a bit too high for me with Giannis back, but both he and Brook Lopez are solid tournament options due to their upside. Then guys like Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen are dart throw’s to round out the team.
5-star play: Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen
Brooklyn Nets @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 233.0
Vegas Spread: Bkn -6.0
Starting with the Nets, they’ll be without Kevin Durant again in this one, we saw Joe Harris start in his place last time out and looked good, so I would expect more of the same here. Below is how this team operates with Durant off of the court this season:
- Kyrie Irving – 34.9% usage rate; 1.28 fpm
- Joe Harris – 15.3% usage rate; 0.67 fpm
- Ben Simmons – 12.3% usage rate; 1.03 fpm
- Nic Claxton – 18.5% usage rate; 1.17 fpm
- TJ Warren – 22.2% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
These would be my favorite options on the Nets, Royce O’Neale will look good as well, he’s going to play all the minutes he can handle in a great matchup. The Nets were pretty chalky last time out and I would expect more of the same on this slate. From the Spurs, Keldon Johnson has been extremely volatile as of late which doesn’t make for a comfortable roster, but I have no issues getting to him in an elite matchup and a nice price tag. He’ll continue to benefit from Devin Vassell being out and has a 30.7% usage rate and 1.09 fantasy points per minute with him off of the court this season. Jakob Poeltl got back up over 30 minutes last time out which is a good sign, I have no issue going right back to him in this one. Then guys like Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones are solid and in good form as of late, you can make a case for Josh Richardson, but he’s probably more of a tournament option.
5-star play: Kyrie Irving, Ben Simmons
4-star play: Joe Harris, Nic Claxton, TJ Warren, Royce O’Neale, Keldon Johnson, Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: Joe Harris
GPP Sleeper: Joe Harris, Seth Curry, TJ Warren, Jeremy Sochan, Josh Richardson
Portland Trail Blazers @ Denver Nuggets
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Den -7.5
Starting with the Blazers, Damian Lillard kept it going last time out and now has at least 54 FanDuel points in three straight games. Any time he’s under $10k I’ll have interest and will be a guy I like going right back to the well on here. I’ve been playing a ton of Jusuf Nurkic as of late due to his price tag, it did come up a bit but I think he’s a great option again. They’ll need his size against Jokic down low in a revenge game against his old squad. I never love Anfernee Simons when Dame is healthy, so he’ll be a tournament-only option… but I do think Simons is a very solid play. Then Josh Hart and Jerami Grant will continue to play all the minutes they can handle and will make sense at their respective price tags. From the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic returned last time out and looked solid with a triple-double against the Magic and will be right up there with Giannis as the top spend-up option on the slate. Jamal Murray feels like he’s just slightly overpriced but does still have some meat on the bone when he produces those ceiling games, so he’s in play for tournaments at the very least. Aaron Gordon is probably more of a GPP option for me, but a guy I could be talked into for cash games at this price tag. I think I would just take the savings on Michael Porter Jr., who does come with some more volatility but I love the upside on him. Then guys like Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown are fine GPP darts.
5-star play: Damian Lillard, Nikola Jokic
4-star play: Jusuf Nurkic, Anfernee Simons, Jerami Grant, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr.
Deeper Value: Shaedon Sharpe
GPP Sleeper: Josh Hart, Jerami Grant, Shaedon Sharpe, Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Philadelphia 76ers @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 225.0
Vegas Spread: Phi -1.0
Starting with the Sixers, Joel Embiid was a guy I was all over last time out against the Lakers and will be right up there with Giannis and Jokic as the top raw option on the slate. I have no issue with going right back to him in this one… he scored 63.25 DraftKings points in this spot earlier this season. James Harden has at least 57 DraftKings points in five straight games and makes sense in all formats again in this one. Tyrese Maxey is probably more of a secondary option, but we know the minutes will be there and he’s not afraid to demand some usage in this offense, he’s been a bit more volatile as of late however. Then guys like Tobias Harris and De’Anthony Melton are fine tournament options, but not priorities by any means, Harris looked good last time out after coming in as questionable all day. From the Clippers, the big news on the slate will be if Paul George can give it a go or not, as he comes in as questionable. For the sake of this article, I’m going to operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here and makes sense as a tournament option at the very least. Keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him as we get closer to lock. Kawhi Leonard has seen his price skyrocket which doesn’t make me feel great about getting to him here but does seem to always play well against Embiid for whatever reason. Norman Powell and Terance Mann have seen price increases as well and would be tournament guys unless George is forced to miss. The Clippers have moved Mann into the starting lineup over Reggie Jackson and John Wall which is why he’s been seeing so many minutes as of late and it does look a lot smoother than with one of those other guys in there. Ivica Zubac will have his hands full in this one, but if he can stay out of foul trouble they’ll need his size in there so the minutes should be there. Then I have no issue with Marcus Morris and Nic Batum to round out the team and the slate.
5-star play: Joel Embiid
4-star play: James Harden, Tyrese Maxey, Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Ivica Zubac
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Tobias Harris, De’Anthony Melton, Norman Powell, Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, Marcus Morris
NBA Lock of the Day: Ben Simmons (DK – $5.9k; FD – $6.9k)
Ben Simmons was set out to be a chalky option last time out before eventually getting ruled out. I like going right back to him in this matchup at this price tag. He also has muli-position eligibility with PF/C on DraftKings and PG/PF on FanDuel which makes him extremely valuable when it comes to roster construction. Lastly, he has a 12.3% usage rate and 1.03 fantasy points per minute with Durant off of the court this season. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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