Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/16:
Apr 8, 2021; Miami, Florida, USA; Miami Heat forward Jimmy Butler (22) directs a play against the Los Angeles Lakers during the second half at American Airlines Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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Indiana Pacers @ Milwaukee Bucks
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Mil -10.5
We’ve got basketball all day with it being Martin Luther King Jr. day, so we start early in Indy where this game will only be on the FanDuel main slate, not the DraftKings slate. Tyrese Haliburton will be out for the next few weeks. I’m going to operate under the assumption Myles Turner will play after missing their last few games, but below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Bennedict Mathurin – 30.1% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- TJ McConnell – 17.8% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- Andrew Nembhard – 17.0% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 20.9% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Myles Turner – 24.8% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
McConnell will likely continue to come off of the bench but he has performed nicely with at least 36 FanDuel points in three straight. Bennedict Mathurin sees a really nice boost in usage with Haliburton out but still can be volatile at times. I still think he’s a pretty great option in all formats. Then guys like Nembhard, Hield, and Turner are nice options as well in a fast-paced matchup with the Bucks. Speaking of the Bucks, they’ll continue to be without Khris Middleton in this one, but otherwise are pretty healthy with Giannis back. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed their last couple of games with a knee issue and hasn’t been in the best form over his last couple of games. Hopefully, the time off will help him return to form here in an elite matchup with this Pacers’ defense. Jrue Holiday will look good here as well, he kept things moving with Giannis off of the court over the last few games. Bobby Portis is probably priced a bit too high for me with Giannis back, but both he and Brook Lopez are solid tournament options due to their upside. Then guys like Pat Connaughton and Grayson Allen are dart throw’s to round out the team.
5-star play: Myles Turner, Giannis Antetokounmpo
4-star play: Bennedict Mathurin, TJ McConnell, Buddy Hield, Jrue Holiday, Brook Lopez
Deeper Value: Chris Duarte
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Nembhard, Aaron Nesmith, Chris Duarte, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, Grayson Allen
New Orleans Pelicans @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Cle -6.5
Starting with the Pelicans, they’ll be without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram again in this one and holy cow did CJ McCollum get a price hike. I can’t imagine I get a ton of interest in him in a tough matchup against this Cavaliers’ defense. That said, he does have a 31.6% usage rate and 1.26 fantasy points per minute with these two off of the court this season. Jonas Valanciunas had a massive game last time out and is capable of that type of ceiling from time to time which keeps him in play even in a tough matchup. Naji Marshall should continue to start for Zion and has been great filling in for him averaging 35.2 DraftKings points per game over his last five games. Then guys like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy are fine secondary options to round out the team. From the Cavs, Donovan Mitchell has not been good since his massive game against the Jazz. He’s a fine option here, but probably more of a tournament guy for me. I haven’t gotten a ton of Darius Garland this season and it feels like he’s consistently priced right where he should be, he’d be more of a secondary option for me. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are solid options in this one as well, they’ve both been in pretty good form as of late. Then Kevin Love will continue to be a tournament option due to his volatility, we know the minutes won’t be high, but he’s an elite per-minute guy.
5-star play: None
4-star play: CJ McCollum, Naji Marshall, Jonas Valanciunas, Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Donovan Mitchell, Darius Garland, Herb Jones, Trey Murphy, Jonas Valanciunas
Toronto Raptors @ New York Knicks
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Nyk -3.0
Starting with the Raptors, Fred VanVleet comes into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed as we get closer to lock, but I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. VanVleet hasn’t been great relative to his price tag as of late and is probably more of a tournament option than anything in this one. Pascal Siakam is averaging 58.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Knicks this season and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. Scottie Barnes has been in great form as well and should continue to play all the minutes he can handle again in this one. OG Anunoby is a fine option and has been pretty consistent this season, but probably more of a secondary option while Gary Trent Jr. is a tournament-only guy for me. From the Knicks, Julius Randle had a flat-out massive game last time out and is playing around 40 minutes per game over the last month or so, he’s going to look great again in this one. Jalen Brunson’s price tag has come way up, but it’s warranted due to his production as of late. I don’t know how sustainable it is with RJ Barrett back, but he’s in play nonetheless. Speaking of RJ Barrett, his minutes are trending in the wrong direction since returning from injury, but he won’t be limited, so I have no issue going back to him if the public will be down on him due to his game logs. Immanuel Quickley has been the benefactor of those minutes and is a fine tournament option in this one. Then Mitchell Robinson is right there in that GPP group as well and should continue to play big minutes.
5-star play: Pascal Siakam, Julius Randle
4-star play: Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Mitchell Robinson
Deeper Value: Chris Boucher
GPP Sleeper: Fred VanVleet, Gary Trent Jr., Chris Boucher, Immanuel Quickley
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Golden State Warriors @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Warriors, Klay Thompson will miss this game, so I would expect to see Jordan Poole back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Klay off of the court this season:
- Jordan Poole – 32.5% usage rate; 1.08 fpm
- Draymond Green – 12.1% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Andrew Wiggins – 24.4% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
- Steph Curry – 34.6% usage rate; 1.45 fpm
- Kevon Looney – 9.5% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
I can’t say I love Poole even back in the starting lineup due to the price tag still being around where it was when Curry was out. He’s still a fine option, but not someone I think we need to prioritize. Then we haven’t really seen a big game from Curry or Wiggins since they’ve returned from injury which would keep them as tournament guys for me at their price tags. From the Wizards, it sounds like Bradley Beal is on the verge of returning from injury. That said, I’m just going to operate under the assumption that he’s out again… he’ll likely be limited if he’s able to play anyway. Kristaps Porzingis has been in fine form and would be a guy I’m okay with going back to in a nice matchup here, while Kyle Kuzma is coming off of one of his best games of the season last time out. The minutes on Daniel Gafford are trending in the wrong direction which makes him feel a bit overpriced in this one. Then guys like Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, and Rui Hachimura are all GPP options who would take a hit if Beal is able to give it a go.
5-star play: Steph Curry
4-star play: Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins, Kevon Looney, Daniel Gafford, Monte Morris, Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura, Bradley Beal
Miami Heat @ Atlanta Hawks
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: Mia -1.5
Starting with the Heat, Kyle Lowry will continue to be out while Cody Martin comes in as questionable. Gabe Vincent should continue to start for Lowry in his place. Vincent has at least 45 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. Jimmy Butler hasn’t exactly been in great form but gets an awesome matchup in this one and looks like a nice bounce-back spot for him. Bam Adebayo is a solid option as well in a nice matchup against the Hawks who are still without Capela down low. I still don’t love the price tag on Tyler Herro but he looked good in this spot earlier this season. Then guys like Victor Oladipo and Max Strus are solid mid-range options. From the Hawks, I mentioned Clint Capela being out… he’s not quite yet, he did get upgraded to questionable for this one, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates, but I will operate under that assumption. This is a tough matchup for Trae Young but he looked good dropping a 50-burger against the Heat earlier this season. Dejounte Murray is more of a GPP option as he fights for backcourt usage with Young, but the minutes will certainly be there for him. Onyeka Okongwu will continue to start should Capela miss again and did come down to Earth after a massive game against the Pacers. John Collins and De’Andre Hunter both had down games last time out but have been good with Capela out this season, so I have no issue going right back to them in this one while Bogdan Bogdanovic would be more of a GPP-type guy.
5-star play: Jimmy Butler, Trae Young
4-star play: Gabe Vincent, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Dejounte Murray, Oneyka Okongwu, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Victor Oladipo, Max Strus, Bogdan Bogdanovic
Utah Jazz @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
Starting with the Jazz, Lauri Markkanen comes into this one as questionable while Kelly Olynyk will be listed as out again. I’ll operate under the assumption that Markkanen is good to go here, but obviously, keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates on him. Markkanen continues to put up good numbers with at least 50 DraftKings points in three of his last five games. I do like his price tag much more on FanDuel where he’s just $8.3k opposed to his $9.4k DraftKings price tag. Jordan Clarkson is going to continue to see massive minutes and has been extremely consistent all season long and showed his ceiling last time out. Mike Conley returned last time out and had a nice game, I would have no issue going right back to him in this one. Jarred Vanderbilt and Walker Kessler should continue to see good run with Olynyk out and make for solid tournament options. Then Malik Beasley was a disappointment last time out, I figured he’d take on a bigger role in the offense to account for Markkanen being out, but that didn’t happen. He’s more of a secondary tournament option in this one. From the Wolves, Karl-Anthony Towns will remain out while Anthony Edwards and Rudy Gobert come in as questionable, but I’ll operate under the assumption they’ll be good to go here. Edwards bounced back nicely last time out and has been good with Towns off of the court this season with a 30.4% usage rate and 1.25 fantasy points per minute. Gobert gets a revenge game against the team that traded him away, he’s averaging 40.8 DraftKings points per game in two games against the Jazz this season… and that’s a Jazz that has really struggled with opposing big men. We kind of know what we’re getting out of D’Angelo Russell at this point, he’s going to play big minutes and probably be pretty solid, but not someone I’ll feel the need to prioritize. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels are fine secondary GPP options to round out this team.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Jordan Clarkson, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Mike Conley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Walker Kessler, Malik Beasley, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels
Phoenix Suns @ Memphis Grizzlies
Vegas Total: NA
Vegas Spread: NA
We’ll round out the slate with another game that is only on the FanDuel main slate. Starting with the Suns, they’ll be without Devin Booker and Chris Paul again in this one while Landry Shamet will come in as questionable. We’ll see Duane Washington Jr. back in the starting lineup if Shamet is unable to give it a go. Below is how this team operates with Booker and Paul off of the court this season:
- Duane Washington Jr. – 32.9% usage rate; 1.12 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 19.5% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Landry Shamet – 23.4% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 25.1% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
These would be the main pieces I’m interested in, a lot of the price tags have caught up on these guys with Booker and Paul missing extended time. I’ll have no issue going right back to Washington if he starts along with Ayton, but the rest of this team would be more of secondary options than anything. From the Grizzlies, Ja Morant comes in as questionable and played just 25 minutes last time out, so he may legitimately be banged up here, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates throughout the day on him. He’s going to look like a fine option in all formats if he’s able to give it a go. Jaren Jackson has at least 42 FanDuel points in three of his last five games and makes plenty of sense in all formats here. Steven Adams came down to Earth last time out but has been in elite form as of late. Brandon Clarke being back does hurt his minutes’ security a bit, but when he’s playing well, the minutes will be there regardless. Finally, Desmond Bane should continue to see good minutes and has at least 44 FanDuel points in two of his last four games.
5-star play: Deandre Ayton, Ja Morant
4-star play: Duane Washington Jr., Mikal Bridges, Jaren Jackson, Desmond Bane, Steven Adams
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Duane Washington Jr., Landry Shamet, Steven Adams
NBA Lock of the Day: -> Click Here <-
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