Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/13:
Oct 24, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Utah Jazz guard Malik Beasley (5) dunks on Houston Rockets guard Jalen Green (4) in the first quarter at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!
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New York Knicks @ Washington Wizards
Vegas Total: 222.0
Vegas Spread: Nyk -3.5
We’ll kick off this slate with the Knicks, they got RJ Barrett back last time out and he played 41 minutes so it’s pretty clear he won’t be limited moving forward. He’s going to look like a good option at this price tag if he’s going to get that kind of playing time as well. Julius Randle came down to Earth a bit last time out but gets a nice bounce-back spot in this one and has been the model of consistency over the last few weeks. Jalen Brunson and Immanuel Quickley will take a hit with Barrett back, particularly Quickley who went back to the bench and played just 25 minutes. I don’t have an issue going back to Mitchell Robinson, however, he’s played at least 35 minutes in four of his last five which has always been the biggest issue with him. Lastly, Quentin Grimes is a fine option if you land on him as a roster filler but not a guy I’ll be prioritizing by any means. From the Wizards, Kristaps Porzingis and Daniel Gafford come in as questionable after missing their last game. If they end up missing again the rest of this team will see a pretty large boost. I had Deni Avdija as my lock of the day for VIP Members’ last time out and would be a guy I go right back to. He would see massive minutes and as we saw last time out, his rebound equity will go up.
Rui Hachimura was a guy that garnered a lot of ownership as well for good reason, but he didn’t perform quite as well. This Knicks’ defense has been better as of late but still not good, so both of these guys would look good again. Kyle Kuzma was a major disappointment in filling in for Kristaps and Beal last time out but would be a guy I have no problem going right back to in this one. Taj Gibson started at center and played 24 minutes which is probably his minute’s ceiling, he’d be more of a GPP dart as a value option. Then if Kristaps and Gafford play, all these guys would take a hit and these two would simply be secondary options.
5-star play: Julius Randle
4-star play: RJ Barrett, Jalen Brunson, Mitchell Robinson, Kristaps Porzingis, Kyle Kuzma, Daniel Gafford
Deeper Value: Taj Gibson
GPP Sleeper: Quentin Grimes, Deni Avdija, Rui Hachimura
Atlanta Hawks @ Indiana Pacers
Vegas Total: 235.0
Vegas Spread: Atl -3.0
Starting with the Hawks, Trae Young missed their last game out of nowhere with an illness but seems like he’ll be back in this one while Clint Capela is out again. We should see Onyeka Okongwu back in the starting lineup yet again. He’s continued to look good and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. Trae Young saw his price come up even after not playing last time out, but he’ll look great here in a great matchup. He has at least 55 DraftKings points in two of his last four games. John Collins is another guy who has been in great form with Capela out and this one sets up perfectly for him as well. Then guys like Bogdan Bogdanovic and De’Andre Hunter are fine secondary options to round out this team, although I probably wouldn’t chase that Bogdanovic from last time out as he filled in for Young. From the Pacers, they’ll be without Tyrese Haliburton for the next few weeks while Myles Turner comes in as questionable, but we’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go here. Below is how this team operates with Haliburton off of the court this season:
- Bennedict Mathurin – 30.6% usage rate; 1.02 fpm
- TJ McConnell – 17.5% usage rate; 1.01 fpm
- Andrew Nembhard – 16.6% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
- Buddy Hield – 22.4% usage rate; 1.13 fpm
- Myles Turner – 24.8% usage rate; 1.30 fpm
I would expect we see McConnell start in place of Haliburton and would be a nice value option in all formats. Bennedict Mathurin is a guy I think might get overlooked because he won’t be in the starting lineup, but he sees a +5.0% usage rate increase and +0.11 fantasy points per minute, he’s going to look awesome in a great matchup. Then guys like Nembhard, Hield, and Turner are nice options as well, this matchup looks great and has a big implied total with a small spread.
5-star play: Trae Young, TJ McConnell
4-star play: Onyeka Okongwu, Dejounte Murray, John Collins, Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Andrew Nembhard, Bennedict Mathurin
Deeper Value: TJ McConnell, Aaron Nesmith
GPP Sleeper: Bogdan Bogdanovic, De’Andre Hunter, Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith, Bennedict Mathurin
New Orleans Pelicans @ Detroit Pistons
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Nop -5.0
Starting with the Pelicans, they’ll continue to be without Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram again in this one. We should see guys like Naji Marshall and Trey Murphy back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with these two off of the court this season:
- CJ McCollum – 32.1% usage rate; 1.29 fpm
- Naji Marshall – 21.0% usage rate; 0.94 fpm
- Jonas Valanciunas – 26.0% usage rate; 1.18 fpm
- Trey Murphy – 15.4% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
- Herb Jones – 15.3% usage rate; 0.78 fpm
CJ McCollum was a guy I kept landing on last slate which didn’t feel great against a good Celtics’ defense, but he ended up performing really well and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to in this one. Naji Marshall has been in great form with Zion out and is a guy I like going right back to as well in the mid-range. I’m not huge on guys like Herb Jones and Trey Murphy although they’ll continue to see big minutes, they’re just not all that great on a per-minute basis. From the Pistons, Isaiah Stewart will come in as questionable while Jalen Duren and Marvin Bagley will continue to sit, so if Stewart ends up playing he should see all the frontcourt minutes he can handle. Nerlens Noel has been filling in nicely but would go back to the bench in this scenario. Bojan Bogdanovic is going to benefit from these guys being out as well, as we saw last time. His rebound equity will go up and there will be more frontcourt opportunities as a whole. Killian Hayes and Jaden Ivey both looked great last time out, Hayes has been more consistent but the ownership reflects that on a day-to-day basis, I think Ivey is a strong tournament option. Then guys like Alec Burks and Saddiq Bey are solid GPP options, we saw the ceiling Bey is capable of last game against the Wolves.
5-star play: CJ McCollum, Isaiah Stewart
4-star play: Naji Marshall, Jonas Valanciunas, Trey Murphy, Bojan Bogdanovic, Jaden Ivey, Killian Hayes
Deeper Value: Hamidou Diallo
GPP Sleeper: Trey Murphy, Herb Jones, Alec Burks, Saddiq Bey, Hamidou Diallo
Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!
Golden State Warriors @ San Antonio Spurs
Vegas Total: 243.0
Vegas Spread: Gsw -9.0
Starting with the Warriors, they got Steph Curry back last time out and played 31 minutes, so I wouldn’t expect him to be limited by any means, and will look like a nice spend-up tournament option. The matchup is great as well with this Spurs team. Jordan Poole isn’t a guy I want to get to at this price tag as this team gets healthier but he had a great game last time out, so maybe more of a GPP dart. The price tag on Klay Thompson has come way up for good reason, he has at least 40 DraftKings points in five of his last six games, but that price tag is hard to stomach. Andrew Wiggins has his minutes trending in the right direction, but I can’t imagine I get too much of him on this slate. Then guys like Draymond Green and Kevon Looney are fine options to round out your roster. From the Spurs, Keldon Johnson returned last time out and looks to be good to go here. He had a nice game last time out and his price tag is really nice on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He’ll continue to benefit from Devin Vassell being out. Jakob Poeltl has at least 43 DraftKings points in two of his last three but the minutes aren’t exactly huge. The price is coming up, as it should, but he would be more of a secondary option for me in this one. Then guys like Jeremy Sochan and Tre Jones are solid and in good form as of late.
5-star play: Steph Curry, Keldon Johnson
4-star play: Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney, Tre Jones, Jakob Poeltl
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Jakob Poeltl, Jeremy Sochan
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Chicago Bulls
Vegas Total: 234.5
Vegas Spread: Chi -4.5
Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was great last night and gets a very nice matchup with a sub-par Bulls defense in this one. I have no issue going right back to the well with him again here. Josh Giddey kept it rolling as well, he’s priced right where he should be but obviously has some upside on that price tag. Lu Dort is probably more of a tournament option here, we kind of know what we’re getting out of him at this point in the season. I do like Jaylen Williams a decent amount, for whatever reason his price isn’t moving, and has outperformed his DraftKings price tag in eight of his last nine games. Then I hope you have a hat nearby that we can start pulling names out of as we get to this frontcourt. Jaylin Williams was the top performer last night but there hasn’t been any consistency to that yet this season, it’s probably more of a stay-away spot than anything at this point. From the Bulls, it sounds like DeMar DeRozan is going to be out again in this one which should lead to Alex Caruso getting the start in his spot. Below is how this team has operated with DeRozan off of the court this season:
- Zach LaVine – 32.7% usage rate; 1.19 fpm
- Nikola Vucevic – 22.1% usage rate; 1.38 fpm
- Patrick Williams – 15.5% usage rate; 0.72 fpm
- Alex Caruso – 12.6% usage rate; 0.80 fpm
- Ayo Dosunmu – 16.9% usage rate; 0.74 fpm
LaVine and Vucevic are the clear top options here but I do think we can look toward those ancillary pieces due to the matchup against a bad Thunder defense. The price tags on LaVine and Vucevic have come up, but if they didn’t, they’d be mega chalk tonight, so no issue going right back to them even at those elevated tags.
5-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vucevic
4-star play: Josh Giddey, Lu Dort, Jalen Williams, Patrick Williams, Ayo Dosunmu
Deeper Value: Alex Caruso, Coby White
GPP Sleeper: Jaylin Williams, Alex Caruso, Coby White, Ayo Dosunmu
Phoenix Suns @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Vegas Total: 223.0
Vegas Spread: Min -5.0
Starting with the Suns, they’re a mess right now, there are no two ways around it. Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Landry Shamet will remain out while Deandre Ayton comes in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that he plays here, as this is an upgrade from his previous status. Below is how this team operates with Booker and Paul off of the court this season:
- Duane Washington Jr. – 33.8% usage rate; 1.16 fpm
- Mikal Bridges – 19.5% usage rate; 0.90 fpm
- Damion Lee – 16.2% usage rate; 0.73 fpm
- Deandre Ayton – 24.4% usage rate; 1.41 fpm
- Torrey Craig – 13.8% usage rate; 0.88 fpm
I would expect to see Duane Washington back in the starting lineup again here and will continue to look great. He had a down game last time out, but he’s very ball dominant and isn’t afraid to shoot… just what we’re looking for when it comes to DFS. Assuming Ayton plays, it’s a tough matchup with Gobert down low, but I would have no issue going right back to him as long as he isn’t limited. From the Wolves, they’ll continue to be without Karl-Anthony Towns while Anthony Edwards comes in as questionable, so definitely news we’ll need to keep an eye on, but it’s another case where I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s good to go. Rudy Gobert has been in much better form as of late and would be a guy I have no issue going right back to. Anthony Edwards has cooled off over his last couple of games but he’s been great with Towns off of the court this season, so if he’s good to go here he’ll continue to look great. D’Angelo Russell is playing massive minutes right now and has been pretty consistent over the last few weeks, I wouldn’t have an issue going right back to him in this spot. Then guys like Kyle Anderson and Jaden McDaniels are solid secondary options at their respective price tags as well. McDaniels would see a boost if Anderson is forced to miss again as he comes in as questionable.
5-star play: Duane Washington, Anthony Edwards
4-star play: Deandre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Damion Lee, Rudy Gobert, D’Angelo Russell
Deeper Value: Damion Lee, Josh Okogie
GPP Sleeper: Torrey Craig, Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels
Orlando Magic @ Utah Jazz
Vegas Total: 233.5
Vegas Spread: Uta -6.0
Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero has been much more consistent as of late but his price tag still feels slightly too high. He does have a ceiling which is why the price is so steep, but he’d be more of a GPP guy for me in a nice matchup. Franz Wagner bounced back nicely last time out but is rarely a guy I prioritize, so he’s more of a secondary option for me. I do like continuing to go back to Wendell Carter Jr. now that his minutes’ restriction is gone. We’re seeing him about $1k cheaper than we did earlier in the season and the Jazz are giving up the second most fantasy points per game to opposing centers on the season. Markelle Fultz has been in good form as well but is another guy that seems like he’s priced right about where he should be. Then guys like Bol Bol and Cole Anthony would be GPP darts at best to round out this team, you could probably throw Moe Wagner into that group as well. From the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk will be out again in this one, we saw Malik Beasley enter the starting lineup last time out in his place, but expect to see more minutes for Walker Kessler as well. Lauri Markkanen probably has the most uncomfortable price tag on the slate at nearly $10k, but he’s shown some consistency in being around that 50-point range as of late, so no issue with him in GPPs. His price is much better on FanDuel where he’s $8.2k… which is probably too cheap. Jordan Clarkson had a big game last time out with 46 DraftKings points in would be a guy I have no issue going right back to here. Mike Conley is never a sexy option, but the minutes will be there for him in a good matchup. Then Jarred Vanderbilt is a solid GPP option as well, he’s been pretty volatile this season, however.
5-star play: Lauri Markkanen (FanDuel)
4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Lauri Markkanen (DraftKings), Jordan Clarkson, Mike Conley
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bol Bol, Cole Anthony, Moe Wagner, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt, Malik Beasley
Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Clippers
Vegas Total: 224.5
Vegas Spread: Lac -2.0
Starting with the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has struggled against the Clippers so far this season, averaging just 42.4 DraftKings points per game in two games. That said, their last matchup was a massive blowout where Jokic didn’t see his full run, so I’ll take that with a grain of salt. He’s going to look like one of the best spend-up options on the slate, assuming he’s good to go as he does come in as questionable. Jamal Murray has seen his price tag continue to drop and would be a guy I like going right back to in this one. Guys like Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are more tournament guys than anything due to their volatility, but the minutes should be there. While guys like Bones Hyland and Bruce Brown would be more dart throws than anything in MME-type contests. From the Clippers, they’ll be without Paul George again in this one which will open up minutes and opportunities for the rest of the team. Kawhi Leonard is one of those guys and has been in great form as of late. He had his best game of the season last time out and has a 28.6% usage rate and 1.33 fantasy points per minute with George off of the court this season. Norman Powell has seen good minutes with George out as well and would be a nice option in tournaments at the very least. The minutes for Ivica Zubac have been all over the place but they’ll need his size against Jokic down low in this one, I think he looks like a nice tournament option if he can stay out of foul trouble. Marcus Morris makes sense as a secondary option as well while guys like John Wall, Reggie Jackson, and Terance Mann are fine GPP darts as well. Mann is probably the best bet for minutes with George out and would be my preferred option.
5-star play: Nikola Jokic, Kawhi Leonard
4-star play: Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Terance Mann
Deeper Value: None
GPP Sleeper: Bones Hyland, Bruce Brown, Marcus Morris, John Wall, Reggie Jackson
Houston Rockets @ Sacramento Kings
Vegas Total: 238.0
Vegas Spread: Sac -9.0
We saw this matchup last time these two teams took the court, so we have a bit of a sample size for this one. That said, Kevin Porter will be out for the Rockets tonight which will change things a bit. I would expect to see KJ Martin and Jae’Sean Tate see an increase in minutes with Porter out, but keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for a starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with Porter Jr. off of the court this season:
- Jalen Green – 32.4% usage rate; 1.07 fpm
- KJ Martin – 18.9% usage rate; 0.92 fpm
- Alperen Sengun – 22.6% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
- Jabari Smith Jr. – 23.0% usage rate; 0.96 fpm
I don’t have Tate listed simply due to a small sample with him missing a good chunk of time, but he’s still going to look like a nice value option. I think Green and Sengun are going to be my favorite options here in an elite matchup with the Kings, however. Speaking of the Kings, Domantas Sabonis bounced back nicely with 50 FanDuel points in this matchup last time out and will look like a nice spend-up option on this slate. The same can be said for De’Aaron Fox who is probably priced right where he should be but is still a guy I like getting some exposure to in this one. Kevin Huerter ended up missing their last game and comes into this one as questionable, so we’ll need to keep an eye on his status but would look like a nice option assuming he’s good to go. The same can be said for Harrison Barnes while guys like Malik Monk and Keegan Murray are more tournament options than anything. All of these guys would see a boost if Huerter were to miss, as would Terence Davis who started in his place last time out.
5-star play: Jalen Green, Alperen Sengun, Domantas Sabonis
4-star play: KJ Martin, Jae’Sean Tate, Jabari Smith Jr., De’Aaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Harrison Barnes
Deeper Value: KJ Martin, Jae’Sean Tate, Eric Gordon
GPP Sleeper: KJ Martin, Jae’Sean Tate, Eric Gordon, Harrison Barnes, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray
NBA Lock of the Day: T.J. McConnell (DK – $4.1k; FD – $5.0k)
The Pacers will be without Tyrese Haliburton for the next few weeks, so I would anticipate T.J. McConnell enters the starting lineup in his place. He’s coming off of a big game last time out and has a 17.5% usage rate and 1.01 fantasy points per minute on the season with Haliburton off of the court. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!
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