DFS NBA Full Court Press: FanDuel & DraftKings Main Slate

Main Slate Breakdown for NBA DFS 1/10:

Nov 25, 2022; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Killian Hayes (7) celebrates a three point shot against the Phoenix Suns in the first half at Footprint Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Welcome to another year of the DFS Army NBA Full Court Press! Members had a ton of success using the Full Court Press along with various articles and tools that DFS Army provides last season, so we are glad to be back with another year of the all-inclusive article. You have to start your research somewhere, and oftentimes going game by game and breaking down every matchup and its key players is the first step in our process. My name is Mike aka @MadnessDFS on Twitter, make sure to give me a follow as I’ll occasionally make updates to the advice in the article. But, you’ll mostly find me in our VIP coaching forums where I provide detailed lineup maneuvers and answer all lineup questions. With that said, let’s get it started!

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Detroit Pistons @ Philadelphia 76ers

Vegas Total: 227.0

Vegas Spread: Phi -11.0

We’ll kick off this slate with the Pistons, they’ll be without Bojan Bogdanovic and Jalen Duren in this one, as well as Marvin Bagley who is out for the near future. I would expect to see Hamidou Diallo, Isaiah Stewart, and Saddiq Bey to enter the starting lineup, and will all look like great options at their respective price tags. Killian Hayes has been in great form as of late as well and has a 22.3% usage rate and 1.06 fantasy points per minute with Bogdanovic and Cade off of the court this season. The one guy whose rates stand out with these two off of the court is Jaden Ivey who is staring down the barrel at a 32.3% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute, he’s going to look like a great option here. Then we can round this team out with Alec Burks who should see good minutes with the team being shorthanded as well. From the Sixers, the big news here is that Joel Embiid will come in as questionable. I’ll operate under the assumption that he’s out again here, just due to the matchup, and that he’s been out for their last handful of games. Below is how this team operates with him off of the court this season:

Tobias Harris – 23.7% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
James Harden – 32.5% usage rate; 1.52 fpm
Tyrese Maxey – 28.7% usage rate; 1.05 fpm
Montrezl Harrell – 19.2% usage rate; 0.97 fpm

It does sound like PJ Tucker is going to return here which will take me off of Paul Reed even after his big game last time out. Reed stepped in with Tucker out, but even if it’s just Tucker back and not Embiid, I don’t think we can confidently go back to Reed, and if the public does, we know where we can get some leverage.

5-star play: Killian Hayes, Jaden Ivey, James Harden, Tobias Harris

4-star play: Hamidou Diallo, Isaiah Stewart, Saddiq Bey, Tyrese Maxey

Deeper Value: Hamidou Diallo

GPP Sleeper: Alec Burks, Montrezl Harrell

Quick shoutout to VIP member “Cenzamatic” on a massive $20k win last season! Sometimes paying up for double studs works, and Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Durant brought it home for him with the help of some Stanley Johnson and Pistons value. Good work and congrats man!

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Miami Heat

Vegas Total: 224.5

Vegas Spread: Mia -4.0

Starting with the Thunder, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will look good again here even in a tough matchup with this Miami defense. He looked good in this spot earlier this season dropping 47.5 DraftKings points and makes sense again at this price tag. Josh Giddey was a letdown last time out but has been extremely consistent on a very inconsistent team all season long. Lu Dort is probably more of a tournament option here, we kind of know what we’re getting out of him at this point in the season. They’ll be without Aleksej Pokusevski for potentially the rest of the season and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl doesn’t have a timetable to return… they did get Jaylin Williams back last time out but he came off of the bench and hasn’t really shown anything at the NBA level to warrant rostering. At the moment, this frontcourt is a circus and not one that I want to buy tickets to. From the Heat, Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro come into this one as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates. I’ll operate under the assumption they’re good to go for the sake of this article, however. They will be without Kyle Lowry though, as he was ruled out on the injury report. I would expect to see Gabe Vincent start in his place while Victor Oladipo should see an uptick in minutes as well. Bam came down to Earth last time out but had been in great form prior, this is an elite matchup, and should be able to do whatever he wants down low. The price tag on Herro is starting to get to a more playable range, but still probably more of a tournament option than anything. We haven’t seen a ceiling game from Jimmy Butler in a while, but we have seen some floor games. He’s a fine option here, but not someone I’m forcing in by any means.

***UPDATE – Right as I’m about to hit publish, Bam and Herro have been ruled OUT. Check out the Breaking News Feed for who benefits from these guys being out.***

5-star play: None

4-star play: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, ~~Bam Adebayo~~, Jimmy Butler, Gabe Vincent

Deeper Value: Gabe Vincent, Haywood Highsmith

GPP Sleeper: Lu Dort, ~~Tyler Herro~~, Victor Oladipo, Haywood Highsmith

Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors

Vegas Total: 230.0

Vegas Spread: Tor -7.5

Starting with the Hornets, they’ll be without Kelly Oubre Jr. and Gordon Hayward again in this one. I would expect to see Jalen McDaniels right back in the starting lineup and has been someone who has looked great as of late. Below is how this team operates with Oubre and Hayward off of the court this season:

Jalen McDaniels – 16.2% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
PJ Washington – 23.6% usage rate; 1.00 fpm
Terry Rozier – 31.3% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
LaMelo Ball – 29.4% usage rate; 1.34 fpm
Mason Plumlee – 14.9% usage rate; 1.19 fpm

I can’t say I love the matchup, but a lot of these Hornets have been producing really well as of late. Ball had a rough game last time out but had at least 47 FanDuel points in his five previous games. Terry Rozier is another guy that has bounced back nicely as of late after having a few down weeks. From the Raptors, Pascal Siakam hasn’t been as great as of late but continues to play all the minutes he can handle. The Hornets are the worst team in the league against opposing big men… this spot looks great for Siakam. Fred VanVleet came down to Earth last time out but has at least 55 DraftKings points in two of his last three games and is a guy I have no issue going right back to the well with here. Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby, and Gary Trent Jr. are all in similar price tiers and look like solid options as well. Barnes is probably my favorite option due to the consistency in his floor and ceiling, but they’ll all look solid.

5-star play: Pascal Siakam

4-star play: LaMelo Ball, PJ Washington, Jalen McDaniels, Terry Rozier, Mason Plumlee, Fred VanVleet, Scottie Barnes, OG Anunoby

Deeper Value: Mark Williams

GPP Sleeper: Mason Plumlee, Mark Williams, Gary Trent Jr.

Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz

Vegas Total: 226.5

Vegas Spread: Cle -3.0

Starting with the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell hasn’t been great since his dominating performance against the Bulls. That said, we get a revenge game back in Utah against his old squad in this one! He only played 22 minutes in their matchup earlier this season, I think he’s a great tournament option at the very least. The price tag on Darius Garland feels like it’s right where it should be for his production as of late, I don’t mind getting some exposure to him as well. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen are solid options in this one as well, the Jazz rank in the bottom three against opposing centers on the season. Then Kevin Love will continue to be a tournament option due to his volatility, we know the minutes won’t be high, but he’s an elite per-minute guy. From the Jazz, Kelly Olynyk will be out again for this one meaning we should see Walker Kessler and Jarred Vanderbilt start next to each other again. It’s a tough matchup against Allen and Mobley down low, but they’ve been in solid enough form. Lauri Markkanen has been on a heater as of late averaging 46.3 DraftKings points per game over the last six games, I don’t love the matchup, but he’s in play for tournaments. Jordan Clarkson continues to float in the 30-40 fantasy point range which is just fine considering his price tag. He’s going to look like a solid option in all formats as well. Then guys like Malik Beasley and Mike Conley are both fine secondary options and should benefit/see a few extra minutes with Collin Sexton out. Conley has been pretty good as of late now that he’s getting 30+ minutes consistently again.

5-star play: Jarrett Allen, Evan Mobley

4-star play: Donovan Mitchell, Lauri Markkanen, Jordan Clarkson

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Darius Garland, Kevin Love, Jarred Vanderbilt, Walker Kessler, Malik Beasley, Mike Conley

Phoenix Suns @ Golden State Warriors

Vegas Total: 229.5

Vegas Spread: Gsw -11.5

Starting with the Suns, hopefully they have some sort of sponsorship with walking boot companies because they are all sorts of banged up. They’ll be without Devin Booker, Chris Paul, and Cameron Payne again while Deandre Ayton comes in as questionable. Below is how this team operates with Booker and Paul off of the court this season:

Mikal Bridges – 19.6% usage rate; 0.87 fpm
Landry Shamet – 23.4% usage rate; 0.99 fpm
Deandre Ayton – 24.4% usage rate; 1.41 fpm
Torrey Craig – 12.5% usage rate; 0.83 fpm
Duane Washington Jr. – 34.2% usage rate; 1.21 fpm

I can’t say I love Shamet again even though he’ll likely start and play all the minutes he can handle. I do love going back to Washington off of the bench, however. He’s extremely ball dominant when he’s in the game and has no issue shooting as much as he feels like. He has at least 27 DraftKings points in back-to-back games and should see 25+ minutes again in this one. From the Warriors, they’ll get Steph Curry back in this one after being out for about a month which makes me think he’ll be somewhat limited. For that reason, I likely won’t get to him much here and it kind of makes me uninterested in this team as a whole as they’re priced for Curry and Wiggins still being out. I guess you could make a case for Draymond Green and Kevon Looney just because they’re not as reliant on usage, but this spot just isn’t all that appealing to me here.

5-star play: Deandre Ayton, Duane Washington Jr.

4-star play: Mikal Bridges, Landry Shamet, Draymond Green, Kevon Looney

Deeper Value: Duane Washington Jr.

GPP Sleeper: Torrey Craig, Dario Saric, Klay Thompson, Andre Wiggins, Steph Curry

Orlando Magic @ Portland Trail Blazers

Vegas Total: 229.5

Vegas Spread: Por -7.5

Starting with the Magic, Paolo Banchero has been good as of late but the price tag doesn’t leave much meat on the bone for upside, so he would be more of a secondary GPP option for me on this slate. Markelle Fultz has been pretty consistent as of late as well and makes sense as a secondary option in all formats. Wendell Carter Jr. is a guy I’ve liked a lot since being taken off of his minutes’ restriction. He hasn’t really paid off quite yet, but he also hasn’t killed us. This is a tougher matchup with Nurkic down low, so I won’t be quite as high on him but I do think he’s still underpriced. Franz Wagner has been good as well but is priced right where he should be and makes sense as a secondary option. Lastly, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony are seeing similar minutes which makes it hard to prioritize either of them and is kind of the reason we can’t love anyone on this team, they’re the deepest DFS team in the league when they’re healthy. From the Blazers, I’ve been playing quite a bit of Jusuf Nurkic as of late and that likely won’t change tonight at his current price tag. Anytime Damian Lillard is under $10k I’ll have an interest as well, he has at least 54 DraftKings points in three of his last five games and this is a nice matchup. I never love Anfernee Simons when Dame is healthy, so he’ll be a tournament-only option. Then Josh Hart and Jerami Grant will continue to play all the minutes they can handle and will make sense at their respective price tags.

5-star play: Jusuf Nurkic, Damian Lillard

4-star play: Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr., Markelle Fultz, Jerami Grant, Josh Hart

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Franz Wagner, Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, Anfernee Simons

Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers

Vegas Total: 221.5

Vegas Spread: Lac -1.0

Starting with the Mavs, Luka Doncic is the top raw option on the slate if we can find the value to make it work. That said, he does come in as questionable, so keep an eye on the Breaking News Feed for updates as we get closer to lock. We may not get the news by lock, however, so going to these secondary options on the Mavs may set you up for some late-night leverage. Christian Wood has at least 40 DraftKings points in four of his last five games and has locked down some consistent minutes. He’s a solid GPP option now that his price tag has come up. Spencer Dinwiddie is probably more of a secondary GPP option, I just don’t like guys who need to fight for usage with these ball-dominant players like Luka. Tim Hardaway Jr. has been much better as of late and makes sense in all formats as well. He’s playing all the minutes he can handle right now. From the Clippers, they’ll be without Paul George again in this one, so we should see Nicolas Batum and Terance Mann back in the starting lineup. Below is how this team operates with George off of the court this season:

Terance Mann – 17.4% usage rate; 0.85 fpm
Ivica Zubac – 15.4% usage rate; 1.06 fpm
Norman Powell – 29.8% usage rate; 1.10 fpm
Kawhi Leonard – 29.2% usage rate; 1.25 fpm
Marcus Morris – 21.9% usage rate; 0.82 fpm

My favorite option here is going to be Kawhi for obvious reasons, I just have a hard time trusting the rest of this team. I do like Ivica Zubac as a tournament option due to his price tag and upside, but not a guy I think we need to prioritize by any means. Outside of Kawhi, this team is mostly GPP options against one of the slowest teams in the league.

5-star play: Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard

4-star play: Christian Wood, Tim Hardaway Jr., Norman Powell, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac

Deeper Value: None

GPP Sleeper: Terance Mann, Ivica Zubac, Norman Powell, Reggie Jackson, John Wall, Spencer Dinwiddie

NBA Lock of the Day: Jaden Ivey (DK – $5.2k; FD – $5.6k)

Let’s get whacky and get to some Jaden Ivey on tonight’s slate. The Pistons are going to be shorthanded as they’ll be without Bojan Bogdanovic, Jalen Duren, Marvin Bagley, and of course, Cade Cunningham. With Cade and Bogdanovic off of the court this season, he has a 32.3% usage rate and 1.10 fantasy points per minute. At this point in the day, I would think he makes my core, but check out our VIP Cheat Sheets as we get closer to lock for staff picks on Core plays, 8x locks of the day, and tiers notes as well!

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