10 under 10 – 10 GPP Options Under 10% Owned

Welcome to another edition of the 10 Under 10 article here at DFS Army! My name is Josh Thomas (@dfsupnorth), and I love GPP’s, and more importantly I love winning GPP’s. My DFS Motto when it comes to playing contests each week is very similar to famous philosopher Richard Bobby’s quote “If you ain’t first your last” (and it even rhymes with it):

“First or last, I ain’t here to min cash!”

We know through back testing in our Domination Station Optimizer, that winning lineups in the biggest GPP’s almost always have multiple players in their lineup under 10% owned and often even one or two guys sub 5%. Which ones do we play though, because being low owned isn’t enough to get you over the hump, they actually have to be good! This article each week will help you identify 10 players who have GPP winning upside based on all the underlying metrics AND are low owned!

 

Let’s Recap last week’s 10 under 10:

Mac Jones – 16.26 FD pts: 2.5x value

Davis Mills – 9.38 FD pts: 1,5x value 

Kirk Cousins – 10.9 FD pts: 1.4x value 

Zack Moss –  7.4 FD pts: 1.1x value  

David Montgomery – 4.6 FD pts: 0.6x value 

Devonta Smith– 16 FD pts: 2.1x value

Romeo Doubs – 3.5 FD pts: 0.6x value

Taysom Hill – 13.06 FD pts: 1.9x value

Juwan Johnson – 8.7 FD pts: 1.5x value

New York Giants – 14 FD pts: 3.0x value

Yeeeesh. We took some chances last week and uh…it didn’t quiiite work out for us!

Mac Jones looked good enough again, Devonta Smith continues to smash, and I lucked out on another Taysom Hill tuddy but none of those guys were winning you a GPP.

The only really solid call was the Giants and I’m still shocked that their ownership was as low as it was in the spot they were (5% is outrageous).

We get another interesting week this week with playoff chances changing due to results of the Saturday games (good job NFL) As alwaysit’s important to monitor ownership especially on Sunday morning because things could change drastically. If one of these players pops off in the ownership I’ll do my best to update this article but know that I’m always available in the DFS Army VIP Discord  for questions and slate strategy talk!

Remember, DFS is always a process. What worked two seasons ago, doesn’t work now, and what works now, likely won’t next year. We need to constantly adjust our process and be willing to learn. There is no magic code. There is no ‘trick’ to winning. There is no secret. You do the same things every week, you take stands, you learn from your mistakes, celebrate your wins, and keep grinding, because that really is the ONLY way to be successful at DFS long term.

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Below you will find my favorite GPP plays under 10% owned to help you gain leverage on the field and hopefully take down a big pay day!

 

Mac Jones QB New England Patriots

Ownership: DK 1.5%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $5000/FD $6400

As I’ve said in this article a million times, you don’t come here for me to tell you that Joe Burrow is an elite play. You guys know who the studs are and if you look at the DFS Army Chalk Board you can clearly see who the good QB plays are because 90% of the time, QB chalk is good chalk to eat.

You come here for the low owned guys who could pop off, and this week my friends, my favorite guy who could put up a big score is Mac Jones. (I know I said the same thing last week but FOR REAL THIS TIME!

In a must win game for the Pats, I really think Jones has some upside here. He is much better against a zone defense like the Bills play and should be able to quietly pick them apart.

I don’t expect a massive game, but at this price point I think he can easily get to 3x and has 4-5x upside. And there are literally NO good QB options this week so I want to try to play guys who are in competitive games, like Jones.

The big question with Jones is who do you pair him with? Jakobi Meyers is the safe play and I honestly don’t even hate pairing him Rhamondre Stevenson and just trying to lock in all the TD’s. Devante Parker is returning here and could be a nice low owned play as well.

Joe Flacco QB New York Jets

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $4800/FD $6200

Joe Flaccid is starting for the Jets in what could potentially be his last game ever in the NFL. Earlier this season when he was starting for the injured Zack Wilson, he was throwing the ball 50+ times a game and I expect that to happen again as he goes the Dolphins who bleed points to opposing QB’s and WR’s.

So cheap on both sites, makes a ton work in your lineups. Can pair with Garrett Wilson which is the obvious chalk play but I love Ty Conklin or Corey Davis and I could even be convinced to play a mega cheap Elijah Moore. 

How wild would it be if Flacco was the Milly Maker winning QB in potentially his last game ever? There’s a non-zero chance it happens!

Brock Purdy QB San Francisco 49ers

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $5700/FD $6900

Fine… FINE. Purdy is a good QB. I’ll admit it. He’s been smashing and now gets to go up against a Cards team that is just looking to pack up and head home for the season (and maybe fire their coach).

Purdy has been really solid the last few weeks, and Deebo Samuel coming back this week makes him an even better play. The 49ers are still live to be the #1 seed (which is wild in and of itself) and with the Eagles playing at the same time, they are going to be inclined to play their starters the whole game, unless the Eagles get way up against the Giants.

Obviously George Kittle and Deebo Samuel are great partners to pair him up with but my favorite play is Brandon Aiyuk who has been smashing with Purdy the last few weeks.

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Alexander Mattison RB Minnesota Vikings

Ownership: DK 1%/FD 1%

Salary: DK $5100/FD $7000

Smash spot for Mattison here. Vikings are going to roll the Bears. Put your mortgage on it (don’t actually do that) and the Bears are one of the worst run defenses in the league. Vikes are in the playoffs already and will want to rest their starters a bit here which means that we are likely to see a lot of Alexander Mattison.

Mattison is a legitimate NFL starter who has just been stuck behind a superstar in Dalvin Cook. Someone is going to pay him next year and this may end up being a day where he gets a few extra million on a contract because he goes off.

Joe Mixon RB Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: DK 10%/FD 14%

Salary: DK $7100/FD $7500

Mixon is right on the edge of the ownership limit for this article here but he’s such a smash play this week in my opinion that I had to include him.

The Bengals are rattled. And they really should be, it’s a tough situation, but that notwithstanding, they got screwed by the NFL here. Taylor and the Bengals want to establish the run early and I could see Mixon getting 20+ carries here.

Not only is Mixon a great play he is a great leverage play off of the Burrow/Chase stacks whic are going to be very popular.

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Devonta Smith WR Philadelphia Eagles

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 5%

Salary: DK $7500/FD $7700

Third straight week that Smith is in this article. You know the drill. Don’t care if they have it wrapped up. Smith is going to smash.

Hurts might start and the Eagles need to win. Potential for a massive game. I actually ‘hope’ that Hurts doesn’t start and that Minshew is the guy as I think that’s probably better for Smith as he’s seen an uptick in production with Minshew Mania under center.

Tyler Boyd WR Cincinnati Bengals

Ownership: DK 2%/FD 2%

Salary: DK $4600/FD $6200

Boyd was the TD Scorer for the Bengals last week before the game was called. Think they try to get him another one here. Goes up against Kyle Hamilton in the slot who is a tough matchup but one that he can handle.

Similar to what I said about Mixon above, this is mostly about the leverage we get on the Burrow/Chase chalk. Bengals are implied here for over 3 TD’s so there’s enough to go around, especially at this price point.

Taysom Hill TE New Orleans Saints FANDUEL ONLY

Ownership: DK <1%/FD 3%

Salary: DK $4800/FD $7000

We aren’t playing Taysom in the QB Spot on DK. I wouldn’t do that if he was starting at QB, but at the TE spot on FD I really don’t mind taking some chances here.

This game doesn’t matter. WHY WOULDN’T YOU JUST DO A MILLION DUMB THINGS WITH TAYSOM?!!? He is dealing with a back injury but should be good to go here.

Floor is zero but the ceiling is massive, could definitely be the highest scoring TE on the slate. Perfect GPP/Milly Maker punt.

Dalton Schultz TE Dallas Cowboys

Ownership: DK 5%/FD 4%

Salary: DK $4500/FD $6500

Big game for the Cowboys here. A win can move them up and more importantly potentially knock the Eagles down to the 5th seed which would be crazy.

Huge TD potential as we saw last week where he got 2 TD’s on a whopping 10 targets. Dak loves him especially when he’s under pressure. Kittle torched these guys a couple weeks ago for 24 points and we could see a similar outcome here. For Schultz to have a day though, I think that the Commanders need to do ‘something’. Jahan Dotson and Terry McLaurin are my favorite two run backs here though I know everyone will try to jump on Johnathan Williams here but I think it’s a bit of a trap.

Houston Texans DST (vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Ownership: DK 6%/FD 6%

Salary: DK $2700/FD $4000

Texans can get run all over, but they aren’t a terrible scoring defense and the Colts are god awful. Ehlinger is starting and trying to show that he can be the guy for the Colts (he can’t) and may try to force some stuff here and turn the ball over. Cheap option with everyone paying up for defenses like the 49ers and Eagles.

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That’s it for this week! Good luck in your contests and be sure to check out our other content!

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