The Draft Kings Milly Maker contest is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing past winners & back testing the Milly Maker winning lineup.
Dec 24, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings tight end T.J. Hockenson (87) celebrates his touchdown with wide receiver Justin Jefferson (18) during the first quarter against the New York Giants at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
The last time we saw a Primary Stack this thick to win the Milly Maker contest was week 4 of the NFL season when the Lions and Seahawks game went off for 93 total points. The 51 points that the Vikings and Giants scored was nowhere near that but nonetheless, this stack was clearly the top one of this slate and was just as efficient as that one in Week 4. Let’s dissect it a bit.
| Week 16 Milly Maker Winner | Points |
| Daniel Jones | 24.76 |
| Saquon Barkley | 27.3 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 15.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | 34.3 |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 22.9 |
| Richie James | 17 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 38.9 |
| Devonta Smith | 34.3 |
| New England DST | 14 |
| Total | 228.96 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1cY7__k9-MU[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack: Daniel Jones 24.76 + Saquon Barkley 27.3 + Isaiah Hodgins 22.9 + Richie James 17 + T.J. Hockenson 38.9 + Justin Jefferson 34.3
Total Stacking Points: 165.16 Fantasy Points
Total Stacking Ownership: 87.5%
Stack wise, this was really as good as it gets for a game stack of this size. What was shocking is the game didn’t really, “Go off” when we think about the kind of game environments that support stacks this big (93 total points in week 4), but this stack targeted all the right players and that’s what really matters. The QB + 3 + 2 bring back stack combined for 165.16 points – a 27.5-point average which is exactly the target you need to score 250 to win the Milly Maker contest.
In a year of diversification across the different types of stacks, we see with game stacks of 5-6 players, that it’s a +EV decision over the long run to build around game environments even if it loses you money most slates. When I do my weekly dive into DFS Pros MME strategy, this is one strategy that comes up again and again.
If you want to use the tools that multiple DFS Army VIP’s have used to win $1,000,000, right now you can try a VIP Membership free for 30 days. That’s right! To gain access to coaching, content, and tools that our members are using to put their names on top of the leaderboards in every DFS Contest, click HERE!
$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 16 Milly Maker Winner | Ownership |
| Daniel Jones | 11.80% |
| Saquon Barkley | 9.60% |
| Chuba Hubbard | 1.20% |
| Justin Jefferson | 24.10% |
| Isaiah Hodgins | 9.60% |
| Richie James | 18.60% |
| T.J. Hockenson | 13.80% |
| Devonta Smith | 9.30% |
| New England DST | 4.90% |
| Total | 102.90% |
Week 16 was setting up as a chalk smash week with low priced QB’s like Minshew in great matchups and several great pay up options in prime matchups like Derrick Henry, but in many ways the RB chalk of Henry, CMC, Mckinnon, and Stevenson failed; This resulted in more contrarian lineups smashing like this one that won the Milly Maker at barely over 100%.
The total average ownership over 16 weeks of the Milly Maker on Draft Kings is now at 111%.
Top Leverage Plays
Chuba Hubbard at 1%
Hubbard had nowhere close to a ceiling game but he still 3X’d his salary at only $4900 and was 1% owned. This pay down option allowed the flexibility within the lineup that was great leverage on the field.
Devonta Smith at 9.3%
There were a lot of Wide Receivers at over 15% ownership like DJ Moore, Juju, and DK Metcalf. Smith smoked them all at under 10% ownership.
Saquon Barkley at 9%
Saquon was in a smash spot at cheaper salary than CMC and Henry, but the field was scared off of him due to his questionable ceiling this season. When Henry and CMC failed to provide tournament winning value at their salary, Barkley’s 27.3 points easily brought it home at his $7900 price tag. Barkley was the top scoring RB on the slate at under 10% ownership.
Isaiah Hodgins at 9%
6th highest score for Wide Receivers and near minimum pricing at under 10% ownership. Leverage.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 16 Milly Maker Winner | Pricing | FPTS Per Dollar |
| Daniel Jones | $5,600 | 4.42X |
| Saquon Barkley | $7,900 | 3.45X |
| Chuba Hubbard | $4,900 | 3.16X |
| Justin Jefferson | $9,300 | 3.68X |
| isaiah Hodgins | $4,100 | 5.58X |
| Richie James | $3,900 | 4.35X |
| T.J. Hockenson | $4,900 | 7.93X |
| Devonta Smith | $6,600 | 5.71X |
| New England DST | $2,700 | 5.18X |
| Total | $49,900 | 4.58X |
Kudos here for finding value by zigging while others zag and not playing Henry or CMC, but simply targeting one of the top game environments on the slate.
This lineup was built around a stack of 6 players that combined cheap stacking options with higher priced studs and really a lot can be learned from this kind of stack. The combination of Daniel, Isaiah, and Richie averaged only $4533 per player and thus saved salary to afford $7900 Barkley, $9300 Jefferson, and $4900 Hockenson. In a game environment where you have heavy hitters and defenses that are both susceptible to giving up points to opposing play makers, this is the kind of environment to target game stacks and this lineup was all over it by finding value on the New York side to be able to stack with the expensive pieces on the Minnesota side.
Ceiling
The ceiling is falling. During the first 2 months of the NFL Season, we had an average winning Milly Maker score of 249 points, and since then it’s been on a rapid decline. Since week 9 of the Season, the average score has been 232 points which is very low by Milly Maker standards. Oddly enough, half of the time it’s been less than a QB + 2 and half of the time it’s been at least a QB + 2.
Normally when the scores are lower, the QB + 1 winning lineups appear more, and when the scores are higher, the QB + 2 is more prevalent, but we’ve had back-to-back weeks with a QB + 3, while the winning lineup scores remain low. This bodes well for building your lineups with more QB + 2 and QB + 3 stacks, even when the scores are lower as they’ve been during the past 8 weeks of the season.
This is a trend that we’ll keep an eye on as we round out the NFL Season and start to look for take aways that we can use going into the 2023 NFL DFS season.
Be sure to Subscribe to DFS Army’s Youtube Channel so you never miss any DFS Content, including the Milly Maker Review & MME Strategy of DFS Pros that I do each week during the NFL Season!
Follow FantasyFling on Twitter!
DON’T MISS OUT! Right now, try a VIP Membership FREE for one month! Click HERE to get access to the coaching, content, & tools that so many subscribers have used to win again and again!
