The Draft Kings Milly Maker contest is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing past winners & back testing the Milly Maker winning lineup.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receiver Zay Jones (7) celebrates his touchdown score during the third quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Dec. 18, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Dallas Cowboys 40-34 in overtime. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]
Jki 121822 Cowboys Jags Cp 68
| Week 15 Milly Maker | Points |
| Patrick Mahomes | 35.74 |
| Jerick Mckinnon | 34.2 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 25.6 |
| AJ Brown | 30.1 |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | 17.8 |
| Zay Jones | 37.9 |
| Travis Kelce | 23.5 |
| Rashid Shaheed | 18.5 |
| Titans DST | 8 |
| Total | 231.34 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TNc0lAzacXc[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack: Patrick Mahomes 35.74 + Jerick Mckinnon 34.2 + Juju 17.8 + Kelce 23.5
Secondary Stack: Tyler Allgeier 25.6 + Rashid Shaheed 18.5
Total Stacking Points: 155.34 Fantasy Points. (Primary: 111.24. Secondary: 44.1)
Total Stacking Ownership: 48.33 (Primary: 44.9%. Secondary: 3.43%.
When I do my weekly MME Strategy review of top DFS Pros, I regularly see lineups of a primary stack that consists of a Quarterback +3 but those lineups rarely find their way to the top of the Leaderboards unless that game really pops off. What’s shocking about this lineup is the game – while hitting the over for 54 points – really didn’t go off and it shows as there was no bring back and the overall lineup only scored 231 points which is low by Milly Maker standards.
Nonetheless, we see the benefit of heavy stacking because if you hit the right game or the right side of one game at low ownership, you can really leverage the field to the top of the leaderboards.
Despite this being a losing formula most weeks, it’s a positive EV decision over the long run to do so and it’s the reason why we so many DFS Pros use this MME strategy.
If you want to use the tools that multiple DFS Army VIP’s have used to win $1,000,000, right now you can try a VIP Membership free for 30 days. That’s right! To gain access to coaching, content, and tools that our members are using to put their names on top of the leaderboards in every DFS Contest, click HERE!
$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 15 Milly Maker | Ownership |
| Patrick Mahomes | 9.68% |
| Jerick Mckinnon | 11.07% |
| Tyler Allgeier | 0.34% |
| AJ Brown | 8.63% |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | 8.31% |
| Zay Jones | 18.64% |
| Travis Kelce | 15.84% |
| Rashid Shaheed | 3.09% |
| Titans DST | 4.26% |
| Total | 79.86% |
The cumulative ownership of 79.86% is the 3rd lowest total we’ve seen on the season and the seasonal average keeps tumbling down after 5 weeks of contrarian builds being atop the leaderboards. The seasonal average is now at 111%, and as long as we have teams in prime matchups failing to deliver (Los Angeles Chargers), we can expect contrarian builds like this one to continue to win out.
Top Leverage Plays
Much like week 14, this lineup was full of leverage plays, so we’ll focus on the top ones that set it apart.
Jerick Mckinnon at 11.07%
After breaking the slate in Week 14, you would think that more of the field would’ve been on Mckinnon. Instead, he was still low owned in a juicy matchup, and he answered the bell again. Top scoring back on the slate and he was leverage off of everybody, including direct leverage off of 25% owned Pacheco.
AJ Brown at 8.63%
No recency bias again here. The Eagles were in a really good spot as the Bears bleed points to opposing offenses. Brown was the 2nd highest scoring WR on the slate and leverage off of chalkier plays like Chase, Allen, Wilson, and Lamb.
Tyler Allgeier at .34%
Less than half a percent of the field played Tyler at $4700, and he ended up being the 4th highest scoring RB. He was extreme leverage on the field.
Rashid Shaheed at 3%
Rashid was the other great play in that Atlanta and New Orleans game as he was only $3200 and almost hit 6X his salary at 3% ownership. He was such a good leverage play because he was direct leverage off of 20% owned Kamara.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 15 Milly Maker | Pricing | FPTS Per $ |
| Patrick Mahomes | $8,100 | 4.41X |
| Jerick Mckinnon | $5,200 | 6.57X |
| Tyler Allgeier | $4700 | 5.44X |
| AJ Brown | $8,000 | 3.76X |
| Juju Smith-Schuster | $5,800 | 3.06X |
| Zay Jones | $4,900 | 7.73X |
| Travis Kelce | $7,800 | 3.01X |
| Rashid Shaheed | $3,200 | 5.78X |
| Titans DST | $2,200 | 3.63X |
| Total | $49,900 | 4.63X |
Zay Jones and Mckinnon vastly outperformed their salary in this lineup as they averaged 7.15X between the two to carry this lineup to tournament winning upside. Also, the $2200 Titans Defense was that rare defense that over performed in a bad matchup at low salary. Defense remains difficult to nail down in DFS.
Week 15 was another week when the RB mess was avoided by paying down at the position and the salary savings were used to afford studs like $8100 Mahomes, $8000 AJ Brown, and $7800 Kelce. Paying down at Running Back really was the difference between first and second place as 2nd place had both Henry and Stevenson but did so by not paying more than $4900 at Wide Receiver and thus the 0 that lineup got from Zaccheaus crushed that lineup.
We’ve found by looking back at years’ past lineups, that most of the time, paying down at Running back is the best way to win the Milly Maker as those expensive backs are cost prohibitive to carving out a well-balanced lineup that can score 230+ points.
Ceiling
5 out of the past 6 weeks, we’ve seen a winning Milly Maker build score under 239 points which has brought the seasonal average to 243 points. The crazy thing is despite a week with the winning score being a low 231 points, there were paths to much higher scores with 54, 57, 54, and 74 final game totals. The reality here is the field got it wrong when you have players like Mike Williams and Chris Moore both at 30% ownership. Also, Allen was close behind at 28%, Chase was at 22%, and Kamara was 20% owned. The result is none of these players were close to smashing and there were far too many dead lineups (as far as first place was concerned) with a combination of these players.
In weeks when the right games are targeted like in week 14 when the winning Milly Maker total was 272 points, the ceiling is obviously much higher. Despite how good Vegas is in setting game totals, they often miss the mark, and we have to take that into consideration when building our lineups.
This Lineup certainly did that by building a Chiefs onslaught stack and including a small secondary stack that nobody was on.
Be sure to Subscribe to DFS Army’s Youtube Channel so you never miss any DFS Content, including the Milly Maker Review & MME Strategy of DFS Pros that I do each week during the NFL Season!
Follow FantasyFling on Twitter!
DON’T MISS OUT! Right now, try a VIP Membership FREE for one month! Click HERE to get access to the coaching, content, & tools that so many subscribers have used to win again and again!
