The Draft Kings Milly Maker contest is a large Field GPP where the top prize pays out $1,000,000. Read the winning trends that we’ve found by reviewing years of winning lineups!
Dec 4, 2022; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) attempts to catch the ball against Los Angeles Chargers linebacker Troy Reeder (42) in the second half at Allegiant Stadium. The Raiders defeated the Chargers 27-20. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
The Week 13 Draft Kings Milly Maker winning lineup was another +1 for the QB + 1 Crowd. No second pass catcher and no bring backs were to be found in this lineup. To be fair, Geno + DK and Lockett lineups would’ve smashed too as DK put up 29.7 points, but this lineup didn’t need Metcalf as Amon-Ra and Adams were the top two Wide Receivers on the slate.
This winning lineup also had a couple of secondary team stacks – one of which had Knight and Wilson – and finished it up with the $3900 Cleveland Defense that scored 30 points and was really one of the big difference makers in this winning lineup.
| Week 13 Milly Maker Winner | Points |
| Geno Smith | 27.98 |
| Brian Robinson | 13.1 |
| Zonovan Knight | 16.8 |
| Davante Adams | 40.7 |
| Tyler Lockett | 30.8 |
| Garrett Wilson | 27.2 |
| Logan Thomas | 5 |
| Amon-Ra- St. Brown | 37.6 |
| Cleveland DST | 30 |
| Total Points | 229.18 |
[embedyt] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_O4XDzB6pw[/embedyt]
Stacking
Primary Stack: Geno Smith 27.98 + Tyler Lockett 30.8
Secondary Stacks: Brian Robinson 13.1 + Logan Thomas 5
Garrett Wilson 27.2 + Zonovan Knight 16.8
Total Stacking Points: 120.88
Total Stacking Ownership: 65.02%
Back-to-back weeks Garrett Wilson has been in the Milly Maker winning lineup and in a team stack with Zonovan Knight this time instead of the Jets Defense.
The 44-point team stack of Wilson and Knight was pretty good, but what really carried this lineup was the 58.78-point stack of Geno and Lockett that averaged 29 points between the two and leveraged the field from an ownership and value standpoint. (Only $12,100 of total $50,000 Salary.)
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$1,000,000 Milly Maker Ownership
| Week 13 Milly Maker Winner | Ownership |
| Geno Smith | 1.87% |
| Brian Robinson | 7.72% |
| Zonovan Knight | 14.90% |
| Davante Adams | 10.13% |
| Tyler Lockett | 5.14% |
| Garrett Wilson | 33.90% |
| Logan Thomas | 1.49% |
| Amon-Ra- St. Brown | 27.67% |
| Cleveland DST | 4% |
| Total Points | 106.82% |
Adjust your optimizers because the contrarian builds are now on fire. We have 3 weeks in a row with the total team ownership being under 110%; This brings the Seasonal Average to 115%. We can thank Weeks 7-10 for the average totals over 115% because if you exclude those weeks, the average would be 96%. What this means is more times than not, it’s still better to be mindful of your lineup being too chalky because 7 out of 13 weeks, we’ve seen winning lineups lower than 112%.
Top Leverage Plays
Geno Smith at 1.87%
Geno was a great leverage play at 1% and he really was one half of a great leverage stack as Lockett was only 5% rostered as well. Geno was third in scoring and leverage off of chalkier, more expensive Quarterbacks like Mahomes, Fields, and Herbert.
Tyler Lockett at 5.14%
Lockett was leverage off of chalkier Wide Receivers like Allen, Kirk, Chase, and Higgins.
Cleveland Browns DST at 4%
The Browns were easily the best value play on the entire slate at 7.69X their salary and leverage off of every other Defense that they outscored. The 49ers were the next closest in scoring and the Browns scored 12 more points.
Davante Adams at 10.13%
It’s not that 10% is big leverage but it is leverage when guys like Chase, Kirk, and Higgins all score in the teens with ownership above 10%. Adams was the top scoring player on the entire slate, so you had to have him this week to win a large field GPP like the Milly Maker.
Pricing and Value from the Milly Maker Contest
| Week 13 Milly Maker Winner | Player Pricing | FPTS per Dollar |
| Geno Smith | $6,100 | 4.58X |
| Brian Robinson | $5,300 | 2.47X |
| Zonovan Knight | $4,600 | 3.65X |
| Davante Adams | $8,700 | 4.67X |
| Tyler Lockett | $6,000 | 5.13X |
| Garrett Wilson | $5,300 | 5.13X |
| Logan Thomas | $2,900 | 1.72X |
| Amon-Ra- St. Brown | $7,100 | 5.29X |
| Cleveland DST | $3,900 | 7.69X |
| Total Points | $49,900 | 4.59X |
When I look at this lineup, I think of a comment Geek made during DFS Army’s Player’s Club Livestream on Saturday… He said something like, “The Field is looking to pay up at Running Back and pay down at Wide Receiver. So, we’re going to do the opposite by paying down at Running Back and paying up at Wide Receiver.” This lineup did exactly that to win the $1,000,000. The average RB price between Knight and Robinson was $4950, which allowed the pay up at Wide Receiver of $8700 Davante Adams and $7100 Amon-Ra. St. Brown.
The $3900 Defensive choice of the Cleveland Browns really set apart this lineup, however, with over 30 points to the tune of 7.69X. 30 points from a Defense is a complete slate breaker and the reason why the average price we’ve seen of GPP winning builds is $3000 across multiple seasons, and it’s currently at $2962 this season.
Ceiling
Are we seeing a regression to the mean? The first couple of months of the NFL Season brought a lot of high scores and thus thicker stacks, but in the past month or so, we’ve seen a decline in GPP winning scoring.
Since the 268-point winning score in Week 9, we’ve seen scores of 238, 197, 227. and 229. The average during that time of 222 has dropped the seasonal average to the 242.76 which is almost exactly what we saw in 2020.
The reason why we want to know those averages is because they play a big part in lineup construction.
In weeks when the scores are low, the skinny stacks are in as they were week 1 when DFS Army VIP RapidFireXD won the Milly Maker!
In fact, 61% of the time this season, we’ve seen Primary stacks with less than a QB + 2 Pass catchers; The average winning score is 227 during those weeks. When QB + 2 pass catchers are used, the average winning score is 266 points.
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